Draft V 1.2 (Steinhäusler, 5 August 2010)

World Federation of Scientists,

Permanent Monitoring Panel, 19-25 Aug. 2010

Erice, Italy

MITIGATION OF TERRORIST ACTS

FOCUS: Scientific Contributions to Biosecurity

and Mitigation of Terrorism

Chairman A. Zichichi –

Co-chairs S. Leivesley & A. L. Moore

SESSION N°9

Terrorism Threats due to

Weapons of Mass Disturbance

F. STEINHÄUSLER

University of Salzburg

Div. of Physics and Biophysics

Hellbrunnerstr. 34

A 5020 Salzburg, Austria

Email:

Abstract

Terrorists using a Weapon of Mass Disturbance (WMDi) have the capability to cause massive disarray in the administration in the targeted area and interrupt daily routines of society at a catastrophic level. The following major categories of WMDi and modes of their deployment have been identified:

WMDi categories: Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD), covert radiation weapon, disruption of food- and drinking water supply, cyber threats, contamination of monetary supply, disruption of energy supply, disruption of telecommunication, disruption of IT infrastructure and banking sector, and disruption of mass transportation system.

Modes of WMDi attack: Radioactive aerosol dispersion, dirty bomb, plane as guided missile, contamination of roads, radiation as a covert murder weapon, covert public irradiation, radiation blackmail; threats against personnel; threats against oil- and gas Installations; attack on the food supply at the farm level and storage site, during food processing, at the food distribution centre, at food services; cyber attacks via WLAN, forged messages, denial-of-service, physical vulnerability of stations; different modes of violent physical attacks on sectors of the national critical infrastructure (energy, communication, transport, financial sector).

  1. Definition of Weapons of Mass Disturbance

A Weapon of Mass Disturbance (WMDi) impairs or even destroys the composure of the society under attack by damaging the order in the business community, or by causing disarray in the administration or severely interrupting daily routines of society: Thereby, the deployment of a WMDi can lead to a major disturbance in the population. This includes damages by a WMDi to the critical infrastructure, such as disruption of the financial sector, impediment of the mass transport and distribution of goods, unsettlement of the energy system or upsetting the IT infrastructure.

  1. Motivation for Deployment of a WMDi

Deployment of a WMDi may be attractive for terrorists for the following reasons:

  • Increasing fear among many members of the public with a single unconventional attack, multiple synchronized attacks, or simply threatening to attack.
  • Indicating to the public that the authorities can no longer ensure security for a large segment of society.
  • Disturbing life for a large number of people in a significant manner at a relatively low cost due to an unconventional mode of terror attack rather than by inflicting mass casualties.
  • Inflicting large scale economic damage resulting from such a terror attack.

A WMDi attack does not result in more casualties than a conventional terror attack but the circumstances of the WMDi attack increase the complexity of the aftermath as compared to the conventional attack. For example, in case of a Dirty Bomb the victims may not only have suffered injuries due to a bomb blast, but they will also be contaminated by radioactivity.[1]The inherent fear of many people of the health risks associated with radiation per se adds to the already prevailing feeling of helplessness. The extent of clean up procedures of the residual radioactivity in the environment (buildings, streets, parks, etc.) will depend significantly on the existing regulatory framework for environmental standards and radiation protection. Applying the low levels recommended in the internationally widely accepted IAEA Basic Safety Standards (BSS) [2] can result in excessive financial costs, as was shown in the clean-up of the incident at Goiania (Brazil, 1987) and Chernobyl (Ukraine, 1986).[3]

  1. WMDi Categories

The main purpose of a WMDi is the severe disruption of society. In view of the relatively low resilience of many members of the public in industrialized countries against any reduction of its standard of living over an extended period, terrorist successfully interfering with the daily routine and its technical amenities will be able to inflict harm on the targeted society. WMDi can be grouped into the categories listed below.

3.1Radiological Dispersal Device

A Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) enables the terrorist to disperse radioactivity in the environment without the target population necessarily noticing the presence of radiation at the time of the attack. Terrorists have a relatively wide spectrum of possible radiation sources to chose from: (a) Cesium (Cs-137) sources used in medicine (activity: about 10E14 Becquerel) can contain caesium chloride, a highly dispersible powder; (b) Teletherapy cobalt (Co-60) sources contain typically 1,000 metal pellets (activity: 10E11 Becquerel each); (c) Industrial radiography sources use mostly metallic iridium (Ir-192), to a lesser extent cobalt (Co-60), selenium (Se-75), or ytterbium (Yt-169), with a typical activity of about

3 trillion Becquerel each; (d) Industrial gauges and other applications can contain cobalt

(Co-60), cesium (Cs-137), or americium (Am-241) (typical activity: 0.1 to 50 x 10E9 Becquerel). Figure 1 shows the iso-dose curves (TEDE) after the detonation of a dirty bomb, based on Ra 226, in a non-urban environment.[4] Within the area marked with a red boundary (187 km²) a person would receive a TEDE of 10 mikro-Sievert for every hour of residence time. For comparison, the average annual radiation exposure from natural sources to an individual in the United States is about 3 000 mikro-Sievert.

Fig. 1: Radium (Ra-226) based Dirty Bomb; TEDE contour plot in a non-urban environment (Activity: 3.7 TBq; Assumption: release time 10 min to < 3 h, atmospheric transport max 8 h)

3.2Covert Radiation Weapon

Since radiation cannot be detected with our senses, terrorist can deploy an WMDi as a covert weapon. Radiation can be used to contaminate, injure or even kill a victim, depending on the absorbed dose. It can also be deployed to enhance the effects of a conventional terror attack, i.e. significantly complicating search-, rescue-operations by first responders having to fulfill their duties in a radioactive environment. Also, terrorists can use this approach to blackmail society by threatening to contaminate or irradiate, covertly irradiate a large number of persons, or kill targeted individuals.

3.3Disruption of FoodSupply

Food can be tampered with at: (a) At the storage areas of raw materials used for food production; (b) During transport from the storage area to the food processing factory; (c) At the food processing factory; (d) During transport from the processing factory to the distribution centre; (e) At the food distribution centre; (f) During transport from the distribution centre to the retail shop; (g) At the retail shop. Food contamination can be achieved by radioactive isotopes, biological contaminants (e.g., E. coli bacteria), or simply by using dyes.[5]

3.4Contaminationof Money Supply

All world reserve currencies, such as the EURO, US Dollar, or the Japanese Yen, are at risk of being contaminated intentionally, since they in circulation in large numbers worldwide. In case of the EURO, since 2002 about 43 767.61 million EURO banknotes have been produced.[6] For example, the radioactive contamination and international distribution of

10 000 popular € 5 notes would be sufficient to trigger wide-spread concern about all EURO denominations, once the media have been informed by the terrorists about the contamination of bank notes. This could lead to wide spread reluctance to accept any EURO notes at the national level and in international commercial transactions (e.g., tourism).

3.5Disruption of Energy Supply

Since 2004 approximately 1 597 attacks of all terrorist events recorded have targeted the energy infrastructure (oil, gas, electricity production) worldwide, i.e. about 4%.[7]In the EU member states about 40 such attacks have occurred in the same period. Based on the experience gained in the past ten years, in the EU electricity production is at higher risk than locations housing oil- and gas facilities.[8]

3.6Disruption of Telecommunication and IT Services

Modern society depends on a continuously functioning telecommunication system and access to comprehensive IT services. A major disruption of these services can be achieved by: (a) Physical attack and subsequent destruction of a centre serving as a regional node;

(b) Physical attack and subsequent destruction of a first responder (FR) dispatcher system; (c) Denial-of-service attack on the system installed at the FR dispatcher centre(s). In addition, several of the attack modes, listed in section on Cyber Threats below, are also applicable here.

3.7Disruption of Mass Transportation System

Industrialized countries enjoy a multimodal mass transportation system, such as passenger train service, subway, rapid rail, street cars and trams, buses, ferries, and civil aviation. All of these components are part of an open system, used by a large number of persons for almost 24 hours every day. An attack on one of the components is likely to impact on a secondary level also on some of the other modes of mass transport, leading to major delays in the transport of persons and freight at significant costs to society.

3.8Cyber Threats

Cyber attacks are increasing in number, degree of sophistication, severity, and cost. The overall number of threats to date has tripled between 2005 and 2007.[9] In 2009, 75% of businesses worldwide have experienced a cyber-attack at an average cost of € 1.5 million. [10] The United States was the top country of origin for attacks in 2009, accounting for 36 % of all detected attacks. The United States was also the top country of origin for attacks detected against targets globally in 2009, with 23 % of the worldwide total.[11]Once subverted by terrorists, these computers can then be used to launch massive denial-of-service attacks, steal or corrupt sensitive information and disrupt network usage round the globe.

  1. Modes of WMDi Attack

Provided terrorists have access to the suitable radioactive or bio-chem material, explosives and weapons needed for a WMDi, as well as training, they can select the most suitable mode of attack among the examples listed below.

4.1Terrorist Attacks with Radioactive Material

Once the radioactive material has been obtained by the terrorist, the material itself can be hidden in practically any type of containment, ranging from a soft-drink bottle to a briefcase or a parcel. The volume of the actual radioactive material in a radiation source without the shielding is rather small (typically a few mm³ to about 100 cm³ only). The ultimate size and weight of a radioactive material used for a terror attack depends on the shielding required: whilst a strong gamma radiation source needs heavy metal- or concrete shielding, an alpha radiation source can be shielded with aluminum foil. The subsequent intentional release of the material can occur from any type of land-, water-, or air-based vehicle. Intentional irradiation is possible indoors as well as outdoors.

Terrorists can disperse radioactive material into the environment by using an RDD, e.g., designed to generate radioactive aerosols over an extended period of time. This aerosol can be introduced into a ventilation system (e.g., subway, shopping mall, convention centre) in a covert manner. Alternatively, this could be achieved outdoors with an adapted crop dusting plane or commercially available mosquito-control flogging apparatus.

In case of a Dirty Bomb radioactive material is combined with conventional explosives (e.g., a truck bomb, loaded with radioactive material blanketed with explosives). Alternatively, a fully fuelled general aviation plane can be loaded with radioactive material and conventional explosives.[12]Provided the aircraft has been leased by a suicide commando, it could be crashed into a civilian target.

The detonation of a Dirty Bomb results in conventional damage due to the blast but also distributes radioactive material in the environment. Blast victims, first responders, and the area of the attack will be contaminated to a largely varying degree, depending on the prevailing weather conditions at the time of the detonation, and the degree of aerolsolization.

Another possibility is the use of a radioactive solution for large scale environmental radioactive contamination, preferably in an urban area of high commercial value. This requires radionuclides to be dissolved in large containers, e.g., oil drums, to which a drain valve has been added. The drums are located inside a truck. At the end of a forecast rainy period, terrorists can cause widespread environmental contamination by spreading the solution, e.g., in a commercial district, with only loe probability of being detected.

Radioactive material intended to kill requires that a hidden source (preferably a strong gamma source) is positioned in such a manner as to expose the targeted person(s) to an excessively high dose rate for a defined period of time. Upon application of the desired dose (exposure period: weeks to months, depending on the dose rate), the radiation source is removed. Subsequently the victim(s) can be informed about the irradiation to instill fear.

A strong radiation source in a public place (e.g., gamma source in a fire extinguisher, located in a shopping centre) with a high frequency of pedestrians is less likely to represent a major health hazard due to the presumably short exposure time of people passing by. Nevertheless, upon revelation of the fact by the terrorists to the media, largely independent of the magnitude of the actual radiation dose received, many members of the public will react in panic.

Terrorist could also be bluffing and only placing a few such radiation sources to remain credible. The actual (or fake) locations would only be revealed upon fulfillment of the demand by the terrorist.

4.2Terrorist Attacks on Food Supply

Food contamination can be achieved by radioactive isotopes, biological contaminants (e.g., E. coli bacteria), or simply by using dyes. Since the objectives are to cause major disturbance and economic losses, the actual concentration of the contaminant are of lesser importance. Once the food has been contaminated, terrorists will inform the media.

4.3Terrorist Attacks Contaminating Bank Notes

Bank notes represent the component of the money supply which is easiest to contaminate. Notes can contain routinely a wide range of contaminants, such as human or animal body fluids (urine, feces, vomit, and infectious blood), fine hazardous powders from detonated explosives, dye, or drugs. [13]Since most banknotes are made from cotton paper (weight: 80 to 90g/m²), sometimes mixed with linen, abaca, or other textile fibres, it can be contaminated with a solution containing a radioactive isotope or biological contaminant.[14]Subsequently, persons handling these notes, as well as vending machines, cash dispensers, and counting-/sorting machines, will be contaminated.

4.4.Terrorist Attacks on Energy Supply Systems

Over the next twenty-five years oil and gas will provide about 60% of global energy, i.e. they will remain the prime sources of energy for industrialized and developing countries alike. Therefore, the oil- and gas industry represents a major component of every national critical infrastructure.

A pipeline system, basically protected by being buried between 1 m to 10 m underground, stretches over thousands of kilometres with little dedicated physical protection. It faces the following main security threats: (a) Placement of explosives at exposed sections of the pipeline; (b) Simultaneous detonation of explosives at several block valve- and compressor stations.

A special case is a terror attack against oil drilling operations. In case terrorists carry out simultaneous attacks on several such platforms operating in the same region, it is unlikely that the operators or the national authorities would be able to regain control for an extended period of time. At present in several countries platform security is inadequate, enabling even poorly armed gangs to take over temporary control on oil drilling platforms ((e.g., Nigeria). The worst case scenario would be the hijacking of several oil platforms and feeder vessels by terrorists. [15]A coordinated attack on pipeline and associated stations could result in a significant environmental impact due to an uncontrolled oil spill, as well as reduced supply.

In general, national energy supply systems are complex and largely open system, facing the following security threats: (a) Bombing of energy company offices, including attacks with truck-bombs; (b) Bombing of electrical transformers; (c) Arson attacks against electrical transformers; (d) Bombing or mechanical sabotage of electricity pylons, cutting of power lines; (e) Attacks against vital areas of power plants with rocket propelled grenades (RPG), mortars, or missiles; (f) Explosive-laden Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) attack on power plants; (g) Coordinated attacks (including diversion attacks), deploying mortar combined with truck bombs; (f) Commando raids by suicide terrorists.

4.5Terrorist Attacks on Telecommunication and IT Infrastructure

Essential telecommunication- and IT services to society could be severely slowed down or even shut down by: (a) Denial-of-service attacks; (b) Attack on systems used by emergency call centres; (c) Attack on dedicated phone lines between government agencies; (d) Corruption of electronically stored vital information; (e) Attack on the computer systems used for broadcasting via television or radio or operating official websites, thereby impeding official use of these media or inserting erroneous messages; (f) Attack on the supervisory control and data acquisition system (SCADA).

Provided that terrorists can gain unauthorized access to vital IT components, this could result in: (a) Tampering with technical data; (b) Theft of strategic data; (c) Intrusion into a security-sensitive database; (d) Undetected hacking into the system and subsequent misuse; (e) Data snooping; (e) Introducing malware into the system.

4.6Terror Attacks on Mass Transportation

Major disruption can be caused by one or more of the following modes of attack: (a) Small arms; (b) Rocket-propelled grenades; (c) Light anti-tank weapons; (d) Synchronized attacks with multiple improvised explosive devices (IEDs); (e) Improvised incendiary devices (IIDs); (f) (Sabotage of the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems used for controlling and monitoring mass transit systems.

These modes of attack can be aggravated further by suicide attackers and/or insider support. Primary attacks may be followed by secondary attacks.

  1. Conclusions

Terrorists attacking society with a WMDi have the potential to cause disarray in the population and damage to the national critical infrastructure. The number of different modes of attack deploying WMDi ranges from the use of radiation to cyber threats, to disruption of food- and energy supply, telecommunication, mass transport, IT services and the financial system. It is important to note that the primary impact (number of dead and injured) resulting from such an attack is likely to be similar to a conventional terror attack. However, the secondary (Domino-) effects, in particular at the economic and psychological level in the targeted population, can be devastating.