West Coast Publishing China FEB 2017 Page 1

West Coast Publishing China FEB 2017 Page 1

West Coast Publishing
China 2017
February
Edited by Jim Hanson
Researchers
Andrew Durand, Carter Henman, Eric Robinson, Jonathan Barsky, Jonathan Shane, Kendra Doty, Mary Marcum, Matt Stannard, Risha Bhattacharjee, Shelby Pryor, Tom Schally, William James Taylor
Thanks for using our Policy, LD, Public Forum, and Extemp Materials.
Please don’t share this material with anyone outside of your school
including via print, email, dropbox, google drive, the web, etc.
We’re a small non-profit; please help us continue to provide our products.
Contact us at

Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic and/or diplomatic engagement with the People’s Republic of China.

FEBRUARY EVIDENCE FILE INTRO

CHINA 2016-2017

WEST COAST OCTOBER

Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic and/or diplomatic engagement with the People’s Republic of China.

Finding Arguments in this File

Use the table of contents on the next pages to find the evidence you need or the navigation bar on the left. We have tried to make the table of contents as easy to use as possible. You’ll find scenario/impacts, affirmatives, disadvantages, counterplans, and kritiks listed alphabetically in their categories.

Using the Arguments in this File

We encourage you to be familiar with the evidence you use. Highlight (underline) the key lines you will use in the evidence. Cut evidence from our files, incorporate your and others’ research and make new files. File the evidence so that you can easily retrieve it when you need it in debate rounds. Practice reading the evidence out-loud; Practice applying the arguments to your opponents’ positions; Practice defending your evidence in rebuttal speeches.

Use West Coast Evidence as a Beginning

We hope you enjoy our evidence files and find them useful. In saying this, we want to make a strong statement that we make when we coach and that we believe is vitally important to your success: DO NOT USE THIS EVIDENCE AS A SUBSTITUTE FOR YOUR OWN RESEARCH. Instead, let it serve as a beginning. Let it inform you of important arguments, of how to tag and organize your arguments, and to offer citations for further research. Don’t stagnate in these files--build upon them by doing your own research for updates, new strategies, and arguments that specifically apply to your opponents. In doing so, you’ll use our evidence to become a better debater.

Copying and Sharing West Coast Evidence?

Our policy gives you the freedom to use our evidence for educational purposes without violating our hard work.

You may print and copy this evidence for those on your team.
You may not electronically share nor distribute this evidence with anyone other than those on your team unless you very substantially change each page of material that you share.

For unusual situations, you can e-mail us at and seek our consent.

Ordering West Coast Materials

1. Visit the West Coast Web Page at

2. E-mail us at

3. Fax us at 877-781-5058

Visit our web page!

Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic and/or diplomatic engagement with the People’s Republic of China.

FEBRUARY EVIDENCE FILE INTRO

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Affirmative

Diplomatic and Economic Engagement Good/General

Diplomatic Engagement Low Now

Engagement K2 US Leadership in Asia

Engagement K2 Check Sino-Japan War

Engagement K2 US-China Relations

(BIT) Bilateral Investment Treaty

Inherency

BIT solves relations

Climate Change Cooperation

Climate change coop makes relations resilient and prevents escalation

Discursive Engagement

US should adopt different terminology toward China

Dialogue acts as a confidence-building measure

Infrastructure Cooperation

Solvency – Relations internal links

Space Cooperation

China is rapidly expanding its civilian space program

China is developing ASATs

PAROS Agreement – Inherency

PAROS Agreement – Inherency / Space militarization now

PAROS Agreement – Solvency

Taiwan

Solvency – Reverse support for Taiwan/Affirm “One China” Policy

A2: Pressure CPs (hard line on China)

Permutation: Do plan and CP on other issues

Permutation: Do Both

Self-fulfilling Prophecy Turn

Nationalism Turn

A2: Tarriffs

A2: Appeasement DA

Non-Unique

Negative

Diplomatic Engagement Bad/Fails

Trump guarantees BAD diplomacy

Economic Engagement Bad/Fails

A2: Theory – Trade Won’t Stop War

A2: Theory – Trade Won’t Stop War (China)

Energy cooperation Neg.

Energy cooperation will fail

North Korea Cooperation Neg.

China won’t cooperate on N. Korea / Fails

Special Economic Zones Neg.

Status Quo solves – US is investing now

Alternate Causes prevent US investments

US Investment Turn

Tigers Neg.

Alternate Causality – Throughout Asia

Alternate Causality – Climate change

Pressure CPs

Pressure is effective and competitive

Pressure Good – S. China Seas

Pressure good – Regime collapse insulator

Scenario Updates

US-China Relations

Brink – Relations are fragile

China Fears US-Russian Relations

Impacts - General

A2: Relations – Non-Unique / Breakdown inevitable

A2: Relations – Relations are resilient

A2: Relations – Too early to tell

US-India Relations

DA – US/China relations internal link

UQ – Relations high now

Relations key to Asian stability

UQ – Relations low now

Allied Confidence

Hawkish Trump good

Chinese Economy

Economy high now

Economy low now

Economy low now / unstable

China Soft Power

A2: Economic prowess leads to influence

China is a military threat

China is bent on expansionism

China is a regional threat

China Regime Collapse

The Chinese regime is strong now

Sino-Japanese War

Brink – Tensions High

South China Seas

Status quo is a hardline approach

Tensions high now / flashpoint for war

Chinese expansionism – South China Seas

Impacts

Trade

Protectionism Against China Coming Now

RCEP Inevitable

US-China War

No impact - Conflicts won’t escalate

U.S. Hegemony & Leadership

Strong Domestic Economy K2 US Leadership

US military presence good - Impacts

A2: Drawdown causes China to take over

US Soft Power

Diplomatic engagement good

Trump is undermining US soft power

Soft Power fails with China

Aff Answer to Conditions CP

2AC Conditions Bad Theory (Short)

2AC Conditions Bad Theory (Long)

Definitions

Engagement

Should

Resolved

AT: Condition (Substantive)

Solvency Deficits

China Says No

QPQs With China Fail

Perm Solves

Net-Benefit Answers

AT: CCP Collapse

AT: Human Rights Reform

AT: Agricultural Reform

Affirmative

Diplomatic and Economic Engagement Good/General

Diplomatic Engagement Low Now

Trump is already degrading U.S. diplomatic engagement with China

Lee H. Hamilton,Distinguished Scholar, Indiana University, January 2, 2017, “Trump’s Impulsiveness Challenges Are Vital To U.S.-China Relationship,” Huffington Post, Accessed 1-19-2017

Trump has a transactional view of governing, including foreign policy.In his world, everything is a deal; every relationship is tit-for-tat. He suggests using Taiwan as a bargaining chip to force China to give us a break on trade. He is stoking tensions, flirting with major changes (apparently reconsidering the One China policy) in order to gain trade concessions. He is willing to disrupt the relationship without concern about the consequences. The question arises: Is this approach to policy the way to handle this critically important relationship? The U.S. relationship with China, ongoing since 1972 when President Richard Nixon visited China, has included elements of confrontation and cooperation. It is not surprising that a new president might have questions about the relationship and want to put his own stamp on policies. Trump’s willingness to shake up the traditional norms and framework may have some value, and some push-back lets China know that, while we want a stable, mutually beneficial relationship, there are limits to our willingness to cooperate. After all, China, with its rising footprint in the region, significant power and growing activism, does present challenges for U.S. policy. China has largely avoided intervention in other countries’ affairs, however, even as it aggressively pursues its interests and protects its territorial claims.But our engagement with China over a period of decades has served both sides, creating stability in the region, avoiding war and allowing both countries to grow and prosper. Questioning longstanding policy is fair game; creating chaos, resentments and doubt is not.

Engagement K2 US Leadership in Asia

Diplomatic and economic engagement are essential to American leadership in Asia

Daniel Twining, senior fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund, December 24, 2016, “Assessing Trump’s Emerging Asia Policy,” Foreign Policy, Accessed 1-2-2017

In a more rivalrous Asia, Trump’s nationalism and determination to restore American strength through economic and military growth could make the U.S. more competitive. However, this is likely to be true only if his administration pursues effective policies to sustain American diplomatic, economic, and military leadership in Asia — including by investing in the alliance relationships that magnify American power and sustain the stability that underwrites pan-Pacific prosperity.

Engagement K2 Check Sino-Japan War

The U.S. should reinvigorate diplomatic engagement with China and Japan to avoid a Sino-Japanese war and global economic downturn

Timothy Heath, a senior international defense research analyst at the RAND Corporation and member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty, December 12, 2016, “The Risks of an Accelerating Rivalry Between China and Japan,” World Politics Review, Accessed 1-20-2017

For years, the U.S., although a staunch ally of Japan, has served as a mediator between the world’s second- and third-largest economies. Washington has sought to reassure both sides, refusing to take a stand on the issue of ownership of the disputed East China Sea islands even as it has recognized Japan’s administrative control. Despite grumblings from both parties, China and Japan have generally recognized the critical role the U.S. has played in ensuring stability. That support has always been tenuously based on the perception that Washington remains firmly committed and fair in its dealings. Regional ambitions and resentment over U.S. powerhave eroded Chinese support for that view.But weakening the U.S. role will remove a critical source of reassurance to Japan and would very likely aggravate Sino-Japanese tensions to a destabilizing degree. Ensuring future regional peace and global economic growth will require a greater effort at diplomatic engagement with the Asian giants than ever before. Whether the U.S. under Trump can resist the allures of retrenchment and invigorate its diplomacy to realize that possibility, though, remains to be seen.

Renewed U.S. diplomatic engagement in Asia is crucial to prevent Sino-Japanese escalation

However appealing it may be to U.S. voters, the benefits of disengagement from Asia, and from the Sino-Japanese relationship in particular, would pale next to the costs. The global economy can ill-afford conflict in a region of the world that promises to drive future growth. The perils of a rivalry between China and Japan lie in its considerable potential for escalation, and in the fact that it continues to lack reliable mechanisms for restraint. According to arecent Pew poll, only 11 percent of Japanese respondents expressed a favorable opinion of China, while just 14 percent of Chinese said they have a positive view of Japan. In a 2014 poll, a majority of Chinese said theyexpected war with Japan by 2020.With levels of distrust so high, leaders may find little public support for compromise in a crisis. Recognizing the danger, diplomats in both countries have urgedefforts to improve crisis management, but concrete measuresare still largely unimplemented.

Engagement K2 US-China Relations

Cooperation should be the bridge for US-China relations

Jin Liangxiang, PhD, Research Fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, December 15, 2016, “Overcoming the Self-fulfilling Prophecy of China Threat,” China-US Focus, Accessed 1-29-2017

Cooperation should be the right approach in maintaining the right course of China-U.S. relations. When we talk about and enhance cooperation, confidence will grow, and conflicts will be finally overcome, or at least be prevailed, but if we talk about conflicts too much, cooperation will not be offered and conflicts will be getting worse. Dialogue should always be a way to bridge the understanding gap. For instance, while American interlocutors worried that China would become more assertive when China gets less dependent on the U.S. market as China is cultivating its own domestic market, Chinese scholars expressed that China felt too pressured by the U.S. because of the dependence.

(BIT) Bilateral Investment Treaty

Inherency

The US is dragging its feet on the BIT with China, which would become the cornerstone of relations

Wang Yiwei, senior fellow of international relations at the Renmin University of China, January 12, 2017, “US president-to-be should cooperate with emerging economies to boost job market,” Global Times, Accessed 1-30-2017

The bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between the US and China has been in the works for eight years. If passed, the deal, regarded as the cornerstone of their bilateral economic relationship, would give Chinese and US investments better access to each other's markets and is an important means to boost the job market in the US. However, Washington still seems to be reluctant to open its market to Chinese investments. It is not news that China's telecommunications firm Huawei, which had struggled to gain entrance to the US for years, is repeatedly blocked from bidding on projects to partner with or purchase its US counterparts. Washington's reluctance to accept Chinese enterprises will only make the situation worse. More efforts should be devoted to facilitating the BIT negotiations.

BIT solves relations

Economic engagement through a bilateral investment treaty can rejuvenate Sino-US relations and prevent future trade friction

Liu Youfa, a senior adviser at the Indian Studies Center at the Pangoal Institution, a leading China-based think tank. Dr. Liu served as consul general (ambassadorial rank) at the Chinese Consulate General, January 18, 2017, The Diplomat, Accessed 1-20-2017

China and the United States are both at a crossroads in terms of sustainable economic development and national rejuvenation. Both countries are under pressure from a sluggish global economy and contracting global trade. Both countries face traditional and non-traditional security threats. Both countries have the obligation to join hands to promote global peace, development, and cooperation. Therefore, the “same boat spirit” should still apply to bilateral relations under President Trump. First, the two countries should carry out more dialogue and communication along with more policy coordination and cooperation. Both countries should adopt the spirit of “give and take” as well as balancing rights and obligations in dealing with bilateral relations. For example, it is a legal obligation for the U.S. side to recognize China’s market status in accordance with the WTO agreement. This should not be held hostage to domestic political concerns. Second, both countries should join hands to build a sustainable relationship based on avoidance of conflict and confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation. Therefore, it pays for the two countries to conclude their Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT), which will allow more Chinese entrepreneurs to set up their businesses in the United States and help create jobs. It is also very much desired for both countries to start negotiation on a free trade agreement, which will help to avoid unnecessary economic friction.Third, both countries should take steps forward and implement reciprocal policy measures to reduce the deficit of mutual trust, which requires both sides to respect each other’s core interests. Both countries should avoid implementing policies at the expense of the other side.Fourth, both countries should further tap into their economic potential by allowing real two-way investment, which would help immediately reduce the trade deficit on the U.S. side. Both countries should build on their cooperation in the areas of clean energy and environmental protection, where the United States has clear technological advantages. Both countries should step up their cooperation in intellectual property rights protection, which would generate new steam for bilateral trade. Both governments could facilitate conditions for joint ventures in the United States, which could produce and market the end products to third-party markets.