Utilisation of Tropical Cyclone and Related Hazards Warnings and Information for Improved

RA I/TCC-XVIII/Doc.6.5, p. 1

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
______
RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN
EIGHTEENTH SESSION
LILONGWE, MALAWI
6 TO 10 OCTOBER 2008 / RA I/TCC-XVIII/Doc.6.5
(15.IX.2008)
______
ITEM 6.5
Original: ENGLISH

REVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL PLAN AND ITS

IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME

Disaster Risk Reduction Component

Utilization of tropical cyclone and related hazards’ warnings

and information for improved coastal risk management

(Submitted by the Secretariat)

INTRODUCTION

Between 1978 and 2007, windstorms have resulted in nearly 3000 casualties and 2.5 trillion USD in economic losses (Source: OFDA/CRED global disaster loss database) in the countries that are members of the Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South-West Indian Ocean. Tropical cyclones have accounted for 93% of the total casualties and 73% of economic losses attributed to wind storms.

The main hazards that have caused disasters in the region during the period under reference are droughts (43%), windstorms (29%) and floods (26%). According to IPCC 4th assessment report, climate change will exacerbate the severity and frequency of hydrometeorological hazards like tropical cyclones and flooding. Furthermore, it is expected that sea level rise linked to impacts of climate change would increase the vulnerability of the coastal regions and especially the Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

WMO, through the crosscutting framework of its Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Programme, with the participation of the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), Tropical Cyclone Programme, the Commission for Atmospheric Science (CAS), the Commission of Hydrology (CHy) and the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) is initiating a coordinated project for development and demonstration of integrated marine-related forecasting and warning systems for improved coastal risk management. More information about the WMO DRR Programme, WMO strategic goals in disaster risk reduction and related capacity-development action plan is available from the Fifteenth Congress document at (
documents/1026_E.pdf).

Effective preventive and preparedness strategies such as land-use planning, resource and environmental management, early warning systems integrated with emergency preparedness, could highly reduce risks associated with tropical cyclones and other related hazards in coastal areas. This would require relevant meteorological, oceanographic and hydrological information to support different decision processes. Improved risk management in coastal regions would require concerted efforts by WMO constituent bodies and programmes concerned. The Tropical Cyclone Committee in Regional Association I is invited to participate in the following initiatives and projects as relevant to its mission and activities.

1.Enhanced tropical cyclone and other related hazards’ risk information

Understanding and quantifying risks posed by tropical cyclones and marine-related hazards are a fundamental requirement for improved coastal risk management. Coastal risk managers and emergency responders could benefit from information about risks posed by tropical cyclones and other related hazards, for purposes of emergency planning, mapping of evacuation routes, land-use planning, resource and environmental management. At the national level, assessment of risks still presents a considerable challenge, as it requires combination of information on hazards, vulnerability, exposure, and historical impacts of such hazards.

1.1.Hazards’ information

As a first step, there is need for development of standard methodologies and tools for hazard data monitoring, archiving (including metadata), analysis and mapping for tropical cyclones and marine-related hazards (e.g. storm surge, extreme wave, coastal flooding).

WMO through JCOMM, has initiated such efforts for storm surges and waves. Guidelines for archiving and analysing historical information about storm surges are under development, and will be published as part of JCOMM’s “Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting”. Additionally, JCOMM has engaged in the development of a database of extreme wave events, which provides a useful reference historical background to various studies and applications, including modeling, monitoring and predicting extreme events and their impacts. More information about the Extreme Wave Database is available at In addition, the Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (San Jose, Costa Rica, 20-30 November 2006) recommended that such efforts should be initiated for tropical cyclones, involving CAS and TCP.

Furthermore, WMO Fifteenth Congress (May 2007) requested Secretary-General to “coordinate the collection and dissemination of information on meteorological, hydrological and climate-related hazards and their impacts, when possible and available”. There is need for development of guidelines for maintenance of standard databases, metadata, and tools for mapping and analysis of tropical cyclones, storm surges, extreme waves and related coastal flooding.

1.2.Loss databases

Impacts (e.g., casualties, economic losses) from tropical cyclones and other related hazards are realized through wind and/or water damage. Most disaster loss databases aggregate these impacts under a single “tropical cyclone” category. However, there is need for systematic methodologies to document impacts associated with each of the specific hazards associated with tropical cyclones in coastal areas (extreme waves, storm surges and flooding).

Since 2003 and 2004, the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme participated in the development of the global unique disaster identifier number (GLIDE: developed to facilitate quality management of databases, avoiding duplicates, enabling inter-operability and linking hazard events with the related disasters, inside and across national borders.

In June 2007, the Global Risk Identification Program (GRIP: was launched, with the goal to improve utilization of information on disaster risks and losses into risk management decision-making. Specifically, GRIP is involved in the development and enhancement of national to international disaster losses databases, and is promoting utilization of the GLIDE number for linking information about hazards and associated losses.

1.3.Development of risk information

Information about hazards, vulnerability and exposure is often available at the national level, but under different agencies, with different data management, analysis and mapping techniques. Assessment of the risk posed by different hazards related to tropical cyclones would therefore require systematic collaborations and information exchange among these agencies.

Through efforts of international agencies and programmes such as the World Bank and GRIP, projects are underway for disaster impact databases development and probabilistic risk modeling in different regions and countries.

WMO is supporting the World Bank’s “Central America Probabilistic Risk Assessment” (CAPRA: go.worldbank.org/YJ5KU1G5R0) project, launched in Managua on 22 February 2008, by facilitating NMHS’ and regional specialized meteorological centres’ participation for provision of hazard and forecast information for development of the hazard modules for these models.

WMO, through its HWR Programme is also contributing to GRIP, with the goal to improve tools and methodologies for flood hazard and risk analysis. This effort could consider coastal flooding linked to tropical cyclones and marine-related hazards, such as storm surge and extreme waves.

2.Integration of marine warnings and related information for improved coastal risk management

2.1.Integrated modeling and forecasting of tropical cyclone and other related hazards

Early warning systems and services related to coastal risk management depend on the crosscutting cooperation of several scientific disciplines. An integrated approach to tropical cyclone, storm surge, wind-waves and flood forecasting, through model-based marine-related forecasting systems, would be the strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. Atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological models form the basis for a coupled operational marine-related forecasting system.

In order to provide timely and accurate information on coastal inundation, it is essential to estimate accurately the state of the atmosphere (in particular winds, atmospheric pressure and precipitation), the state of the ocean (sea surface elevation and currents – driven by wind, atmospheric pressure, waves and tides), and flooding, particularly by river run-off.

WMO has initiated an integrated effort by setting up or strengthening existing collaboration mechanisms among the regional Tropical Cyclone Programme coordination bodies, the Regional Associations and the technical commissions concerned, foremost JCOMM, CAS, CHy and CBS, for developing and improving the service delivery in coastal risk management, with an emphasis on: (1)Developing guidelines for early warning systems related to detecting and forecasting marine-related hazards; and (2)Implementing, through pilot demonstration projects, improved operational forecast and warning systems for coastal inundation.

These efforts will be built upon activities such as those through WMO WWRP’s Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR) which is working on high-impact weather events associated with tropical cyclones and monsoons that primarily affect the tropical and subtropical countries. Specifically, WGTMR is working on four projects namely:

(1) An intercomparison of the recently developed advanced numerical modeling systems for the prediction of tropical cyclone structure/intensity changes;

(2) A Forecast Demonstration Project to implement a state-of-the-art model for tropical cyclone precipitation in the Philippines;

(3) A tropical cyclone field experiment for the western North Pacific that would include targeted observations and advanced models to improve landfall forecasts; and,

(4) Aproject focused on the extra tropical transition of tropical cyclones.

2.2.Warning communication and dissemination

Coastal risk management would require cooperation of several technical agencies with disaster management agencies and other coastal zone managers. Collaboration among agencies should ensure that authoritative information is available in a timely, understandable, and easily accessible fashion for emergency operators and decision makers. Dissemination of warnings and related information on tropical cyclones, storm surges, waves, coastal floods and tides usually are decentralized, falling under the responsibilities of different agencies at national level. To this end, in some countries, National Meteorological Services, together with other technical agencies (e.g. hydrological services, ocean services), have combined their information into information portals to facilitate access by the decision-makers and emergency operators.

2.3.Utilization of warnings in emergency preparedness and response operations

Impacts of tropical cyclone, storm surge, extreme waves and related flooding can only be reduced if the warnings are integrated in the emergency preparedness and response operations. Effective emergency response should be underpinned by clear plans and legislation at national to local levels, where the key stakeholders are identified along with their roles and responsibilities along the different stages of the operational process. Effective operational early warning system and emergency preparedness should include:

• Ability to observe, detect and manage data and information;

• Forecasting tools, capacities and infrastructure;

• Segmentation of users (decision makers, emergency responders), mapping of their decision processes (e.g. how warnings trigger response), identification of their specific requirements (e.g., lead time, accuracy, information content, distribution channels), and feedback mechanisms that would lead to improved warning messages and utilization over time;

• Ongoing capacity building and training between forecasters and their stakeholders to train them on the technical limitation and accuracy of forecast-related product and services;

• Dissemination infrastructure/mechanisms/channels for distribution of the products developed by NMHS to the stakeholders. Quality assurance that the products and services are received and understood;

• Provision of information products to the public and stakeholders in emergency preparedness and response operations to improve understanding of forecast and warning products and services;

• Bidirectional feedback mechanisms (stakeholder/NMHS) during and after an event to improve the products and services.

Following a request by the 58th Executive Council and further stressed by the15th Congress, WMO is initiating pilot projects on early warning systems with a multi-hazard approach to better understand institutional cooperation, and operational aspects of early warning systems, with the goal to develop guidelines on effective multi-hazard early warning systems with respect to governance, organizational coordination and operational aspects and the role of NMHS therein (See para 3.0).

2.4.Utilization of tropical cyclone and related hazards information for regional and international humanitarian contingency planning and response

When a disaster happens, many countries rely on the assistance from humanitarian agencies. In the context of the humanitarian reform and under the framework of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), the humanitarian community is working together to improve contingency planning and more coordinated response to potential disasters. This requires access to relevant official forecasts and other advanced information that can assist them in assessing potential disaster situations. These agencies would benefit from systematic cooperation with NMHSs (i.e. access to official warnings) and Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs, i.e. access to specialized forecasts and bulletins). However, these linkages are either ad-hoc or non-existent and need to be established or strengthened. Furthermore, the information available through NMHSs and RSMCs is generally too technical and not targeted at this user segment.

Strengthening of operational linkages between national and regional offices of these agencies with NMHSs and RSMCs, and development of meteorological, oceanographic, hydrological and climate products and services that would address their needs and requirements could improve the coordination of humanitarian response and relief operations following a disaster.

2.5.Development of value-added products combining meteorological, oceanographic, and hydrological information and forecasts with high resolution satellite imagery

Value-added products developed by combining meteorological, oceanographic, and hydrological information and forecasts with high resolution satellite imagery could assist emergency responders to facilitate emergency planning, response, relief and post-disaster assessments.

The International Charter on Space and Major Disasters (cf. has facilitated access to high resolution satellite images, for the use by emergency responders, humanitarian and civil protection agencies, free of charge, in anticipation of a disaster or after a disaster has occurred. Currently, this Charter can be activated either by the national civil security agencies or select international humanitarian agencies.

As an example, in the aftermath of the earthquake in Dec 2005, through a partnership between WMO and UNOSAT, specialized products were developed based on overlaying high resolution satellite with daily to seasonal forecasts of snow cover provided by ECMWF. This information enabled improved rescue missions, provision of shelters and other relief operations.

Through collaboration of the space agencies, humanitarian agencies, NMHSs and RSMCs, value-added products based on combining the high-resolution satellite images provided by the Charter with various hydro-meteorological forecast outputs could be developed systematically.

3.WMO coordinated multi-hazard early warning systems pilot projects

As the first set of pilot projects in early warning systems with multi-hazard approach, in 2007 WMO initiated the development of early warning system pilot projects in RA IV, starting in Central America. In November 2007 a Regional Planning and Advisory Group (RPAG) was established under leadership of RA IV President, involving WMO network’s experts in the region and other key partner agencies, including the World Bank and the Regional Office of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The RPAG is working to:

A)Develop project proposal and implementation plan;

B)Develop a clear regional and national cooperation strategy and facilitate relevant cooperation and buy-in among the stakeholders for implementation of the project;

C)Facilitate resource mobilization for funding of the project;

D)Serve as an advisory committee during implementation of the project and documentation of project outcomes, successes and expansion.

The project is expected to be launched for the first three pilot countries in early 2009. The RAIV Hurricane committee, together with additional experts in disaster risk management from RA IV will serve as the primary mechanism to:

i) Review lessons learned from these pilots;

ii) Provide guidance on the future course of the project based on lessons learned from the pilots; and,

iii) Make recommendations to RA IV meeting in 2009 for the expansion of the project to other countries in the region with a strong emphasis on the SIDs in the Caribbean. Similar projects can be initiated in RA I, upon request from the Members and with cooperation and coordination with the RA ITropical Cyclone Committee for the South-West Indian Ocean.

Regional cooperation initiatives in southern and south-east Africa for development of technical capacities of NMHSs to use latest tools for forecasting have resulted in the development and implementation of:

(i)The severe weather forecasting demonstration project (SWFDP) in 5 countries of SADC (Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe); and

(ii) Flash flood guidance system (FFGS) in 9 countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe). The SWFDP is being rolled out to all SADC countries.

Efforts are underway to leverage these developments along with other capacities (regional specialized meteorological centers, tropical cyclone committee, etc.) for initiation of early warning system pilot projects with multi-hazard approach to optimize utilization of existing technical meteorological and hydrological tools and capacities for:

(i) Optimal utilization of existing technical meteorological and hydrological tools and capacities for emergency preparedness and response operations (national to local);

(ii) Provision of warnings, forecasts and other products and services to support improved community emergency preparedness and response; and,

(iii) Development of feedback mechanisms during and after events to improve NMHS contribution to the overall EWS system. The Secretariat has initiated the mapping of projects of WMO Programmes, technical commissions, regional association, and other partners in support of disaster risk management in Africa, as an initial step for an integrated planning for DRR projects.

The RAI TCC is invited to consider these initiatives, to review and evaluate the benefits and lessons learnt and provide recommendations to RAI for further expansion of such initiatives.

______