Unit 5 Demographic Challenges

LEAD-IN

Pre-reading:

  • What are the major demographic challenges we face today?
  • How can we address and accommodate these changes?

THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE IN EUROPE

By Karoly Lorant

The estimated world population in Christ's time was around 200 million and it hardly changed during the centuries that followed. When Columbus discovered the New World there were only 450 million people, the average yearly growth rate in the first 15 centuries of our Lord was 0,1% which meant stability for the contemporary societies. The population began to accelerate in the 18th century, when, partly as a result of improved nutrition and the impact of new discoveries in medical science, like smallpox vaccination, the defeat of cholera, germ theory of disease, the discovery of the pathogen of tuberculosis and so on, there was a decrease in the crude death rate of the population, while the birth rate remained relatively high.

The population reached one billion in the turn of the 19th Century, and the yearly growth rate remained almost unchanged in the next 130 years hovering around 0,6%. The real population blow-up came in the middle of the 20th Century, when the results in medical science began to spread in the Asian, African and Latin American countries. The average growth rate reached the yearly average of 2% which – in a generation's time – doubled the world population.

Today, the negative demographical tendencies are present in the whole of Europe including its eastern part with the states of the former Soviet Union and the symptoms are rather similar. From the second half of the 19th century, the yearly growth rate of population in the present European Union oscillated between 0,5 and 1%. However, this trend changed dramatically in the 1960’s and within one generation the growth rate slowed down to zero. Even the natural growth (the difference between death and birth number) turned into negative and only the net immigration made the population grow. Looking for the reasons we will discover that against the fact that there was some improvement in the death rate while the average life span became longer too, these tendencies were unable to balance the steadily deteriorating total fertility rate. Total fertility rate is the average number of children that a woman, in all her lifetime, will give birth to. This ratio was around 2,66 in the beginning of the 1960’s and fell back to 1,46 by the end of the 1990’s.

The decrease in total fertility rate is a global phenomenon. However while the total fertility rate in the developing countries – against a substantial fall – remained well above the critical 2,1 level which is required for the simple reproduction of the population, in the developed world, the rate of 1,46 is not enough to maintain the current society. This rate, in the long run when its impact will fully prevail, produces a yearly decrease of 1% in the population.

Parallel to this, the so called old age dependency rate (the ratio of the population over 65 years to the population aged between 15-64 years) will reach 47% against the current 24% which means that the burden on the working age population to keep the pensioners will be doubled.

  • Is population decline good or bad for the economy?

READING 1: OVERPOPULATION vs. POPULATION DECLINE

Pre-reading: Is there a global crisis of overpopulation? If so, is family planning the solution?

TEXT 1

Overpopulation is a generally undesirable condition where an organism's numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat. The term often refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth, or smaller geographical areas such as countries. Overpopulation can result from an increase in births and decline in mortality ratesas well as from an increase in immigration.

On October 31st, 2011 the world human population hit 7 billion. Most estimates for the carrying capacity of the Earth are between 4 billion and 16 billion. Depending on which estimate is used, human overpopulation may or may not have already occurred.

The recent rapid increase in human population over the past two centuries has raised concerns that the planet may not be able to sustain present or larger numbers of inhabitants. Problems commonly associated with overpopulation include the increased demand for resources such as fresh water and food, starvation and malnutrition, consumption of natural resources faster than the rate of regeneration (such as fossil fuels), and a decrease in living conditions. However, some believe that waste and over-consumption, especially by wealthy nations, is putting more strain on the environment than overpopulation.

Limiting birth rates through legal regulations, educating people about family planning, increasing access to birth control and contraception, and extraterrestrial settlement have been suggested as ways to mitigate overpopulation in the future. China and other nations already have regulations limiting the birth rate, with China using the one child policy. Contraception is a response to the fact that nearly 40% of pregnancies are unintended and that in the poorest regions mothers often lack information and the means to control the size of their families.

  • Is overpopulation the cause for poverty and underdevelopment?

TEXT 2

The termpopulation declineis used to describe any great reduction in a human population.It can be used to refer to long-term demographic trends, as in urban decay or rural exodus, but it is also commonly employed to describe large reductions in population due to violence, disease, or other catastrophes.

Sometimes known as depopulation, population decline is the reduction over time in a region's census. It can be caused for several reasons; notable ones include sub-replacement fertility (along with limited immigration), heavy, disease, famine, and war.

Sometimes the term underpopulation is applied in the context of a specific economic system. It is a term which is usually defined as a state in which a country's population has declined too much to support its current economic system. An example would be if retirees were supported through a social security system which does not invest savings, and then a large emigration movement occurred. In this case, the younger generation may not be able to support the older generation.

Today, emigration and sub-replacement fertility rates as well as high death rates are the principal issues related to any regional population decline. However, governments can influence the speed of the decline, including measures to halt, slow or suspend decline. Among such measures include pro-birth policies andsubsidies, media influence, immigration, bolstering healthcare and laws aimed at rooting out vice (lowering death rates). Such is the case in Russia and Armenia, as well as many Western European nations who have used immigration and other policies as a means of suspending or slowing population decline.

Russia's total population is among the largest drops in numbers (but not in percentage). Its peak was 148,689,000 in 1991, and its own estimate was 141,927,297 for January 1, 2011. This represents a 4.7% decrease in total population since the peak census figure.

  • Explain the difference between population decline, depopulation and underpopulation. Which of them threatens your country most nowadays?

TEXT 3

POPULATION TO HIT SEVEN BILLION: EXPERTS WARN OF ‘BACHELOR NATIONS’

The Telegraph26 Oct 2011

As the global population hits seven billion, experts are warning that skewed gender ratios could fuel the emergence of volatile "bachelor nations" driven by an aggressive competition for brides.Many demographers believe the resulting shortage of adult women over the next 50 years will have as deep and pervasive an impact as climate change.

The statistics behind the warnings are grimly compelling. Nature provides an unbending biological standard for the sex ratio at birth of 104-106 males to every 100 females. Any significant divergence from that narrow range can only be explained by abnormal factors. In India and Vietnam the figure is around 112 boys for every 100 girls. In China it is almost 120 to 100 – and in some places higher than 130. And the trend is spreading: to regions like the South Caucasus, where Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia all post birth ratios of more than 115 to 100, and further west to Serbia and Bosnia.

Demographers say that figure is now more than 160 million – women selected out of existence by the convergence of traditional preferences for sons, declining fertility and, most crucially, the prevalence of cheap prenatal sex-determination technology. Even if the sex ratio at birth returned to normal in India and China within 10 years, men in both countries would still face a "marriage squeeze" for decades to come.

How that change might manifest itself is hotly debated, although nearly everyone agrees there is no foreseeable upside. Some forecast an increase in polyandry and sex tourism, while others predict cataclysmic scenarios with the rise of male-surplus societies where sexual predation, violence and conflict are the norm.

UN agencies have issued similar warnings about the correlation between a scarcity of women and increases in sex trafficking and marriage migration, albeit with certain caveats. But while more and more red flags are being raised over the long-term implication of skewed sex ratios, few solutions are being offered.

  • Do you think sex-selective abortions should be outlawed?

Topical Vocabulary 1

  1. rate

(birth~; death/mortality~;)

increase/decline in ~

to halt, slow or suspend decline/increase in ~

  1. natural population increase/growth – естественныйприростнаселения
  2. net immigration(migration balance) - чистая миграция, миграционное сальдо, миграционный баланс
  3. averagelifespan/life expectancy–средняяпродолжительностьжизни
  4. fertility(rate) - рождаемость, уровень рождаемости населения

replacement ~ уровень замещения поколений, воспроизводства населения

  1. carrying capacity
  2. overpopulation - перенаселенность
  3. birth control(family planning) – контрольрождаемости
  4. urban decay – кризис городов

~ blight – деградация городов

  1. ruralexodus - массовый уход из деревни
  2. depopulation - 1) сокращение численности населения

2) геноцид, истребление, уничтожение населения

  1. heavy emigration–эмиграция, отток населения
  2. underpopulation- нехватка населения
  3. ageing – старение населения

Translate the following sentences into English using the topical vocabulary:

  1. Грузия единственная среди стран постсоветского пространства в прошлом году вышла на позитивный миграционный баланс.
  2. Согласно данным управления, показатель чистой миграции стабильно рос с декабря 2008 года.
  3. В сентябре этого года второй раз подряд в текущем году в России зарегистрирован естественный прирост населения.
  4. Рождение более двух детей на одну женщину указывает на рост населения и снижение среднего возраста населения по стране.
  5. По оценкам экспертов, чтобы заместить интенсивно стареющее население, в Беларусь нужно ввезти 10 миллионов мигрантов.
  6. Согласно данным Росстата, за первые девять месяцев естественная убыль населения составила 125 тысяч человек, что на 80 тысяч меньше, чем за аналогичный период 2010 года.
  7. В современных условиях ведущим фактором замещения поколений выступает рождаемость.
  8. DB отвергает обвинения властей США в том, что его деятельность на американском ипотечном рынке приводит к деградации городов.

Fill the gaps using the word combinations given below:

birth control, life expectancy,urban decay, overpopulation, heavy emigration

  1. Its spiraling crime rate and rapid ______drove white business and residents out.
  2. Yet, ______was insufficient to cope with the surplus population.
  3. A team of researchers conducted a state-by-state analysis of ______anddiscovered that white men in the US live about seven years longer than black men.
  4. The cost of ______—and who should pay for it—has been the subject of a heated national debate in recent weeks.
  5. We live on a finite planet with finite resources and the number one problem in the world today is ______.

Ageing, challenges, compounded, declining, elderly, factors, implications, migrating, population, present, rates, trends

Statistics show that in many countries the population will decline in the next 50 years. The population of these countries will also age rapidly. What effect will this have on those countries?

If current ______continue, then in some countries the ______is expected to dwindle within the next 50 years. This problem is ______by the fact that not only is the number of inhabitants diminishing, but they are also growing older. This ______population will bring its own ______. At ______there are sufficient younger people to earn money and pay taxes to support the ______. However, within 50 years this will not be the case. There are several possible ______contributing to this problem. First, birth ______in these countries are clearly falling. Second, there could be an increase in the number of people ______away from these areas. The ageing and ______population is expected to have important ______for the labour force and the quality of everyday life.

READING 2:

Pre-reading:What are the basic reasons for migration today?Is large-scale migration a force for good?

TEXT 1

Global migration

During the 1950s, most Western European countries still registered a negative migration balance. Some countries (for instance Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) lost a substantial number of their citizens emigrating for economic reasons overseas as well as to other European countries.

Western European countries began to "import" guest workers in the early 1960’s to fill jobs Europeans would not consider. These guest workers came mainly from the Mediterranean (to France) and from Turkey (to Germany).

Most European countries closed their doors to labour immigration in the 1970s, following the first Arab oil embargo and the subsequent economic downturn, yet some 500,000 immigrants – primarily family reunification cases – and 400,000 asylum seekers arrive in Western Europe each year.

Over the past 15 years, the number of people crossing borders in search of a better life has been rising steadily. At the start of the 21st Century, one in every 35 people is an international migrant.

Global migration affects almost every state – they are all either sending, transit and/or receiving countries for migrants. While the major countries of emigration are in the developing world, western industrialised countries absorbed only about 40% of the world's migrants, the remaining part settling also in developing countries or the former Soviet Union.

Most of those who have left their countries of origin are motivated by a desire for better opportunities. But there are also millions of people who have been forced to migrate for fear of persecution. The current waves of immigrants and asylum seekers from the Middle East and North Africa are linked much more to the worsening conditions in these countries, than with labour shortages in Europe.

At the end of 2002, 10.4 million people around the world had refugee status, according to the UN High Commission for Refugees. A further one million applied for asylum that year or had their applications still pending.

As regards intra-European mobility, however, despite the progress made in removing obstacles to the free movement of people in the EU, its levels are very low. The most important barriers are the lack of language skills and the problems with opportunities for dual careers. Still, the level of push-pull migration is rising, basically due to insufficient manpower in the cities.

TEXT 2

Should immigration be encouraged? Or do both sending and receiving countries have an interest in restricting the flow of migrants?

With constantly increasing flows and varying forms of international migration, both between and within world regions, an increasing number of involved countries assume the multiple role of both sending and receiving country, sometimes even that of a transit country at the same time. It is however obvious that the primary interests that feature in the migration policy of a country with a net emigration of migrant workers are different from the interests on the agenda of a country predominantly at the receiving end.

Labour markets in the countries of destination are usually signalling a demand for immigrants, for the legal or hidden sides of the economy, often for both. However, depending on the magnitude of the immigration flow and its size in relation to the desired scale of legal immigration, the receiving country often wishes to foremost secure the functioning control and regulation of the scale of immigration flows. Countries of origin are not to the same extent interested in regulation of the flows. Rather, countries of origin may adopt active interests in securing maximum repatriation of emigrant earnings abroad andremittances. Furthermore the countries of origin have an interest to develop support measures for families which are divided because of migration. In the international forums dealing with migrants’ rights, it is predominantly the sending countries that are active in developing instruments and mechanisms for the improved protection of the rights and safety of migrants, following their genuine interest to secure the safeguarding of rights and safety of their own citizens abroad.

Migration related interests and obligations are discussed in the numerous intergovernmental forums of regional and interregional cooperation on migration issues that have emerged in the latest few years. Much of the time and effort is allotted to find commonly agreed solutions to manage irregular migration and trafficking in migrants, and, if possible, to provide for orderly flows of migration that could best serve the interests of both countries of origin and destination. These solutions require cooperation and identifying goals that could comply with the interests of both sending and receiving countries.

FOLLOW-UP / Study additional sources and say, what the benefits and the drawbacks of migration for both sending and receiving countries are.

Topical Vocabulary2

  1. guest worker- гастарбайтер
  2. negative migration balance – см. Topical Vocabulary1
  3. labour immigration
  4. family reunification – воссоединение семьи
  5. asylum(seeker) - беженец, просящий о предоставлении политического убежища; applyfor ~ просить о предоставлении убежища

ср. refugee –

refugee status — статус беженца

to be given / granted refugee status — получить статус беженца

  1. receiving (host) country; ~ of destination/sending (donor) country (country of origin)
  2. labour shortage – нехватка рабочей силы
  3. free movement of people
  4. dualcareer– семья, в которой работают оба супруга
  5. push-pullmigration (commuting, commutation – to commute)маятниковая [челночная] миграция
  6. immigration flow- иммиграционный поток

influx/inflow – приток, наплыв

  1. repatriation
  2. remittances – денежные переводы
  3. irregular migration (illegal, undocumented, informal) – нелегальнаяиммиграция
  4. traffickinginmigrants – переброска нелегальных мигрантов

Fill the gaps using the word combinations given below:

asylum-seeker, sending countries,immigration flow, labour shortages,guest workers,remittances, family reunification, receiving countries, dual career, commuting