Brighton and the coming energy crisis
Brighton Peak Oil Group
www.brightonpeakoil.p8.org.uk
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Transport energy consumption
2.1. Current situation in the UK
2.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis
2.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis
2.4. Recommendations for individuals
2.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations
2.6. Recommendations for the local government
3. Other energy consumption
3.1. Current situation in the UK
3.1.1. Domestic energy consumption
3.1.2. Industrial energy consumption
3.1.3. Service energy consumption
3.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis
3.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis
3.4. Recommendations for individuals
3.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations
3.6. Recommendations for the local government
4. Socio-economic consequences
4.1. Current situation in the UK
4.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis
4.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis
4.4. Recommendations for individuals
4.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations
4.6. Recommendations for the local government
5. References
1. Introduction
There have been numerous studies that suggest that the world is going to face an energy crisis soon (so soon that it may have started already), due to physical limits in the amount of oil and gas that can be produced.
This study won’t address the issues of whether we are reaching the world peak in oil and/or gas production, but rather, assumes that the theory that peak oil and gas will happen within the next 10 years is correct. If this were true, what would be the consequences for Brighton? And what can be done to be prepared for such an eventuality, by individuals, companies, and the Brighton council? The aim of this study is to answer these questions.
For this, we have looked into all the areas that we considered relevant, from the ones that would be most immediately impacted (transport) to the most remote (socioeconomic implications). In each area, we have considered the current situation in the UK, then the trends that are to be expected in an energy crisis due to peak oil and gas, and finally, the specific considerations for Brighton.
We hope that this study will drive every person who reads it to action, in whatever spheres action is possible for them.
2. Transport energy consumption
2.1. Current situation in the UK
Transport forms a key part of our everyday lives, both because the products that we buy are often transported over long distances and because people often travel for personal or business reasons.
Transport energy consumption has almost doubled since 1970.
Chart 2.1
Almost all the energy used in transport comes from petroleum-based fuels. The only method of transport that uses another type of energy is electric rail, which accounts for less than 1% of all energy used for transport.
Chart 2.2
Transport can be considered in two ways, in terms of people (passengers) and in terms of goods (freight). While it is difficult to split rail, water and air transport into clear breakdowns of passenger and freight, it is more straightforward to calculate a breakdown for road transport. It is estimated that about two thirds of the energy used in road transport was from road passengers and the rest from road freight. Since 1990, road freight energy consumption has increased by 17%, whereas road passenger energy consumption has remained almost the same, increasing by just 1%.
Changes in transport energy consumption can occur for efficiency, technological or economic reasons. Changes between 1990 and 2000 can be attributed to two factors: output (change in miles travelled) and intensity (change in the amount of energy needed per mile). Of the overall change in the transport sector between 1990 and 2000, it is estimated that 90% was due to changes in output while the remaining 10% was due to intensity changes. Road transport intensity has varied little: freight energy intensity has increased by 4% since 1990, while energy intensity in the road passenger sub-sector has fallen by 2% since 1990. This indicates that it is much easier to change output (distance travelled) than it is to change intensity, or efficiency.
The change in the amount of freight moved, measured in tonne-kilometres, is shown in the chart below. Half of the total tonne-kilometres were met by road. Between 1970 and 2000 the amount of freight moved by road rose by 86%. The increase has been enabled by an improved road network that can accommodate larger and heavier vehicles.
Chart 2.3
In 2000, 721 billion passenger kilometres were travelled in Great Britain. This corresponds to 12 thousand kilometres per person. Passenger kilometres from air and rail have increased since 1970, whereas passenger kilometres from buses have fallen over the same time period.
Chart 2.4
Car occupancy rates for commuting and business related journeys are low, at an average of between 1.1 and 1.2 people per car. Average occupancy rates in 1998/2000 for family holidays were 2.2 people per car, for education 2.1, and 1.9 for leisure.
2.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis
All forms of transport will be affected with peak oil and gas. As we have seen already, almost all forms of transport currently used in the UK, use some form of petroleum-based fuel.
The only exception is electric rail. But as much of our electricity comes from power stations that use natural gas as its main fuel, it would be hasty to assume that electric rail will not suffer. Still, as there are ready available alternatives to natural gas in the production of electricity, it’s fairly likely that there will be a trend towards more electric and less diesel trains.
Not all forms of petroleum-based transport will be affected equally. This is for two reasons:
1) With peak oil there will be more scarcity of light oil than of heavy oil. This means that light fuels (such as gasoline) will be harder to acquire than heavier fuels.
2) Some forms of transport are more energy intensive (use more energy per kilometer and tonne) than others. It will be relatively cheaper to use transport that is more energy efficient.
The lightest fuel used in transport is gasoline (petrol). The heaviest is diesel or gas oil. Kerosene, used for aviation fuel, is intermediate. It’s possible to deduce from this a trend towards diesel motors in road transport. Diesel is also more energy dense, which means that average miles per litre or gallon is higher in diesel vehicles than in gasoline vehicles.
The following graph shows the big differences in energy intensity of different forms of transport:
Chart 2.5
It is reasonable to assume that freight transport by sea and rail will increase. Passenger transport by rail is also likely to increase and air transport will decrease.
It’s possible that, at some point in the future, the UK will be confronted with real shortages of petroleum-based fuels. This is likely to affect air and road transport more heavily, as the preference is most likely to be to keep well stocked the most energy-efficient and essential transport.
High transport prices and transport disruptions will affect more strongly those companies most dependent on transport. It’s easy to identify the two categories of companies most affected:
1) Transport companies, especially those using the least energy-efficient methods of transport (airlines, haulers, couriers, etc.)
2) Heavy users of transport: Those companies that need frequent and/or abundant supply and/or distribution.
Chart 2.6
The chart above gives a breakdown of which company types use transport most heavily. We can deduce from this that the companies most affected by a rise on transport prices will be mostly in one of the following categories:
- Food industry
- Building industry
- Producers of manufactured consumer goods, with those producing goods that are at the same time cheap, heavy or bulky and frequently used most affected (like cheap furniture or toys).
In the area of personal travel, the chart below shows how many miles are traveled for each purpose:
Chart 2.7
The most obvious way a person can cut personal travel is reducing on leisure travel (holidays, nights out, etc.) Commuting and business travel is another big part of personal travel, but most people have limited options to reduce that type of traveling. It is reasonable to predict a trend towards a reduction in leisure traveling, and change in holiday locations to places closer to home.
2.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis
Brighton’s average miles per person per year is higher than the national average (around 8,000, compared with a national average of around 7,000). Part of the reason for this is probably that the average salaries are higher, too, which means that locals can afford it. But it would be careless to discount other factors, mainly the proximity to London. There is a significant population of commuters to London, and it’s also a favourite destination for leisure activities and occasional shopping.
Commuters are a significant fraction of the total workers. 17% of Brighton workers travel 20km or more to work. And 48% of workers use a car to go to work, either as a driver or as a passenger. Given that for most people it’s difficult and slow to change job to a workplace closer to home or change home to a location closer to the workplace, with rising petrol prices their options are reduced. Some will be able to switch to a more efficient mode of transport, and others will have to cut spending in other areas.
Brighton is very well communicated in all forms of transport. If there were any transport disruptions, Brighton is unlikely to be any worse off than London.
Brighton isn’t a major manufacturing center, so there are few industries that would be affected by rising cost of transport. But there is a large amount of catering business, and there has been so far little effort on part of the business to obtain food from local farmers. As food prices rise due to more expensive transport, they will have to look at local sources.
Brighton is also one of the few tourist destinations within the UK. When people in other parts of the country choose to give up on holidays abroad because airplane fares are getting too expensive, Brighton could experience a new boom in tourism.
2.4. Recommendations for individuals
There are several ways individuals can deal with high petrol prices and transport issues. The chart on the Trends section showed which were the main purposes individuals have for traveling. We will consider each of the main purposes separately.
1. Leisure. This is an area where individuals can easily reduce traveling. Reducing the numbers of leisure trips and choosing destinations closer to home are lifestyle options available to all.
2. Commuting and business. Business travel will be studied in the next section, which deals with recommendations for businesses and organizations. As for commuting, there are a number of alternatives worth considering:
a. Public transport (trains and buses).
b. Cycling.
c. Car pooling with colleagues.
d. A more fuel efficient vehicle (a smaller vehicle, a hybrid or a motorcycle).
e. Teleworking.
3. Shopping. Almost all Brighton residents can do their grocery shopping in shops within walking distance. For any other shopping, it’s sensible to wait until the weekend and do one shopping trip a week to the centre of town, unless it’s an emergency. To buy articles that aren’t available in Brighton, it’s often possible to acquire them by catalog or over the Internet.
4. Education and escorting education. Public transport is almost always available to reach educational institutions.
Individuals owning a car should consider if it is at all possible to do without it. Many people have found that a combination of public transport, cycling, taxis and hiring vehicles when needed provide successfully all their transportation needs, at a much cheaper total cost. If this isn’t practical, due consideration should be given to switching to a more efficient vehicle (a smaller car, a hybrid or a motorcycle.) Even if changing to a different vehicle isn’t possible, the least an individual can do is learn techniques of driving that are more fuel efficient. The Internet is a good resource to learn about “hypermiling”, or driving efficiently.
As a final recommendation, those who own a vehicle fuelled by oil-derived products (petrol or diesel) should find out if it’s possible for them to use biofuels. In Brighton, biofuels can be acquired from
2.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations
Businesses and organizations need transport for several reasons. We will consider each of them separately.
1. Acquisition of supplies. Local suppliers should be used whenever possible. Any supplies that need to travel long distances should be acquired in bulk, to reduce transport costs. If it’s possible to choose the means of transport, the one with the lowest energy intensity should be chosen (as seen in the graph above, the forms of transport from most to least efficient are marine, rail, road and air).
2. Distribution of products. Distribution should be in bulk whenever possible. If it’s possible to choose the means of transport, the one with the lowest energy intensity should be chosen. There have been cases where vegetables grown 1 mile from town were taken to a distribution depot 20 miles away, then back into town. This is wasteful and it will become more and more expensive. Nowadays, food travels an average of 123km before it reaches its final destination, compared with 82km in 1978. Finding the shortest and most efficient routes for distribution will be a worthwhile practice.
3. Business trips by employees. They should be limited as much as possible, especially by plane. Organizations should ensure that any mileage reimbursement rates are at a level which does not encourage additional travel and ensures that only essential travel is undertaken. Some of the possible ways of reducing the amount and length of business trips include:
a. Improved communication so traveling for face-to-face meetings becomes unnecessary.
b. Finding shorter routes for travel.
c. Having others travel instead of members of the company or organization.