Module Descriptor
Title / Forecasting and Modelling
Code / QNM02
Level / M
Credit rating / 20
Pre-requisites / None
Type of module / Single
Aims /
  • To develop detailed understanding of a range of analytical and quantitative techniques with business applications
  • To introduce methodologies for problem-solving and decision-making in the context of Logistics and Supply Chain Management
  • To develop skills in the use of computer software for decision support

Learning outcomes/objectives / On completion of this module the students should be able to:
Subject specific:
  • identify potential applications of Operational Research in logistics and supply chain management;
  • select and apply appropriate techniques to solve specific problems;
  • make effective use of computer software for modelling, problem-solving and decision-making;
Cognitive:
  • demonstrate critical thinking, analysis and synthesis;
  • apply knowledge of quantitative techniques in problem-solving and decision-making;
  • demonstrate effective use of relevant software.

Content / Forecasting
-Simple forecasting models
-Measurement of forecast error
-Decomposition models
-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing
-Linear regression
-Qualitative approaches
Simulation
-Principles of discrete event simulation
-Simulation model building
-Simulation software
Decision Modelling
-Decision trees
-Analytic Hierarchy Process
-Decision-making methodologies
Advanced Network Analysis
-Float and criticality
-Risk and estimated duration activities
-Resource levelling
Algorithmic approaches to logistics problems
-Warehouse location
-Vehicle routing
-Warehouse layout and order picking
Teaching and learning
strategies / Workshops will combine lectures to introduce each of the techniques with computer room exercises to explore the techniques in more detail, including interpretation of problem solutions.
Hours
Workshops / 40
Self-study / 100
Assessment / 60
Total / 200
Learning support / Indicative Reading:
The latest editions of:
Brooks R, Robinson S and Lewis C, Simulation and Inventory Control, Palgrave
Chapman C and Ward S, Project Risk Management, Wiley
Cooke S and Slack N, Making Management Decisions, Prentice Hall
Goodwin P and Wright G, Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, Wiley
Lahmar M, Facility Logistics: Approaches and Solutions to Next Generation Challenges, Auerbach Publications
Makridakis S, WheelwrightSC and Hyndman RJ, Forecasting Methods and Applications, Wiley
March JG, A Primer on Decision-Making, Free Press
Pidd M, Computer Simulation in Management Science, Wiley
Pidd M, Tools for Thinking, Wiley
Robinson S, Simulation: The Practice of Model Development and Use, Wiley
Waters CDJ, A Practical Introduction to Management Science, Addison Wesley
Wisniewski M, Quantitative Methods for Decision Makers, Pitman

Journals

Journal of the Operational Research Society
Journal of Production Economics
Journal of Simulation
Operations Research
Interfaces
Software:
Microsoft Excel or equivalent
Simul8, available from
Primavera
Interactive Warehouse website:
Assessment tasks / Students will be set a minimum of 5 tasks, generally to be completed within 1-2 weeks. Where possible tasks will be personalised with different data for each students. At least one task will be undertaken in controlled conditions within a computer room. The overall mark for the module will be determined from the marks for the best 4 tasks.
Brief description of module content and/or aims (maximum 80 words) / The module develops understanding of a range of analytical and quantitative techniques with business applications in the context of Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Area examination board to which module relates / N/A
Module team/authors/coordinator / Kevin Turner and Gary Priddis
Semester offered, where appropriate / Term 2
Site where delivered / Moulsecoomb
Date of first approval / July 2011
Date of last revision / July 2011
Date of approval of this version / July 2011
Version number / 1
Replacement for previous module / QNM02Forecasting & Modelling
Field for which module is acceptable and status in that field / Business Systems Management
Course(s) for which module is acceptable and status in that course / Compulsory module on MSc Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
School home / Brighton Business School
External examiner / Steve Disney