This Is the Inside Title Page
Queensland Farmers Federation Climate Change Project
IMPROVING THE CAPACITY OF QUEENSLAND
INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE TO MANAGE CLIMATE CHANGE
June 2008
Prepared by Adam Knapp
and Peter Perkins
Contents
Forward
Executive Summary
1.Introduction
1.1 Background on industry situation prior to project
1.1.1 Sugar
1.1.2 Horticulture
1.1.3 Nursery and Garden
1.1.4 Dairy
1.1.5 Cotton
1.1.6 Chicken Meat
1.1.7 Aquaculture
1.1.8 Irrigation
1.1.9 Climate Change Project
1.1.10 Climate Variability
1.1.11 Sustainable Agriculture and FMS
1.2 Industry’s motivations for tackling Climate Change
1.2.1 Political landscape of climate change in Australia
1.2.2 Current political structure surrounding climate change in the QLD Government from an Agricultural perspective
1.2.3 Current political structure surrounding climate change in the Federal Government from an Agricultural perspective
1.2.4 Agriculture sectors response
1.2.5 Specific requirements for the QFF family of interest groups
2. Project Summary
2.1 Objectives
2.2 Outputs
2.4 Project Scope
2.5 Methodologies
3. Climate Change for Queensland Intensive Agriculture production regions
3.1 Changing conditions for Queensland agricultural production
3.2 Climate Change Predictions for Intensive Agricultural regions
3.3 Ongoing Climate detail and scenarios
4. Climate Change Impacts – common issues
4.1 Impacts associated with other large-scale external drivers
5. Risks and Opportunities Assessment
5.1 Adaption
5.2Production Risks – Tipping Points
5.3 Mitigation Options
5.4 Summary
6. Queensland Intensive Agriculture FMS Adaption’s to Climate Change
6.1 Sugar
6.2 Horticulture
6.3 Production Nursery
6.4 Dairy
6.5 Cotton
6.6 Prawn Farmers
6.7 Chicken Meat
6.8 Irrigators
6.9 Agribusiness, Banks and Insurance
7. Opportunities to Enhance Energy Efficiency and Minimise GHG in Queensland’s Intensive Agricultural Sector
8. Climate Communication Strategy
8.1 Masters of Climate – Land and Water Australia
8.2 QLD Regional Climate Drivers and Scenarios
9. Recommendations
9.1 Climate Data
9.3 Future Modelling Research
9.3Research and Development Agenda and CCRSPI process
10. Project References
10.1 Meetings
10.2 Useful Websites
10.2 Literature References
11. Appendices
Attachment 1: Energy Efficiency Report
Attachment 2: Industry Action Plans
Attachment 3: Fact Sheets
Attachment 4: Literature Review
Attachment 5: Expert Panel Minutes
Attachment 6: Climate Adaption for Intensive Agriculture Historical Weather Data and Trends
Forward
Australia’s climate is changing as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and further changes are inevitable regardless of efforts to reduce global emissions. For agriculture, the measured and projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide will continue to drive changes in climate, and in the functioning of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Farmers and rural communities have successfully adapted to, day-to-day, and year-to-year variations in climate over many decades, and understand the risks to productivity and sustainability posed by climate variability, over relatively short timeframes. Climate change however, adds substantial uncertainty and complexity to the management of farming systems, as temperatures in Australia are likely to increase by 1-5C by 2070, and rainfall - particularly in southern Australia – is likely to decrease. All regions, north and south, will be subject to more extreme weather events. Agriculture will need to adapt to these challenges in climate, and the additional risks they pose, just as it has successfully adapted to other significant challenges in the past. However, without urgent attention to agricultural adaptation there will be significant impacts on productivity, profitability and sustainability in many key industries, both extensive and intensive.
This project, conducted by the Queensland Farmers’ Federation (QFF), and supported by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) National Agriculture and Climate Change Action Plan, is therefore both a timely, and very important initiative in helping the intensive agricultural industries of Queensland, to effectively and efficiently adapt to current and future changes in climate for key production areas of the State. The key elements of this project can be generally described under the following headings:
- Development of detailed climate scenarios for key production areas
- Risks and opportunities assessment for each intensive industry
- Risk management and adaptation
- Capacity building, education and communication
All elements have been tackled in a highly professional and integrated manner. A very well qualified and knowledgeable Expert Panel of scientists used a targeted selection of climate models, in conjunction with studies of historical climate data, to provide detailed future climate scenarios for each of the regions where the key intensive agricultural industries are located. Importantly, a highly participatory process involving the scientists, the Project Steering Committee, and key industry personnel wereused to ensure that this enhanced climate information addressed the highest priority needs for each industry. Similarly, an excellent participatory process was used to help each industry identify the potential risks and opportunities arising from the projected changes in various climate parameters. This dialogue between the ‘ground level practitioners’, the climate scientists and other advisers was totally aligned with international best practice, and was a credit to the participants. Each of the intensive industries involved in the project has used the project data to inform not only its risks and opportunities assessment, but also as a basis for the industry to identify and implement adaptation strategies focussed on future productivity, profitability and sustainability. Given the relatively short duration of this project, more work will be required on these adaptation strategies, and also on the capacity building, education and communication necessary to ensure that the strategies identified can be effectively and efficiently adopted in a timely manner, by all industry stakeholders.
Overall, this project has been an excellent example of what is required to help agricultural industries in Australia adapt to climate change. It has set a high standard in its integration of first-class scientific outputs, with comprehensive industry knowledge and expertise to help plot future pathways for each of the intensive industries. As a result, all participants are in a much better position to adapt to climate change than they were before the project commenced. This exemplary approach needs to be repeated for other industries in Queensland, and in other regions of Australia.
Professor Timothy G. Reeves
Timothy G. Reeves & Assoc. Pty. Ltd.
Executive Summary
Adaptation to climate change is the biggest challenge facing Australian agriculture in the next 20 to 30 years. The impacts of climate change are being felt with hotter temperatures – January 2006 was the hottest month in Queensland’s recorded history - and less frequent rainfall. Like all changes, a changing climate brings both risks and opportunities. Those who understand the nature and implications of the change better, can adapt more effectively to avoid the risks and seize the opportunities, by identifying risks, implementing management practices and monitoring performance.
As part of the Australian Government’s National Agriculture and Climate Change Action Plan, Queensland Farmers’ Federation (QFF) undertook a strategic climate change project that was industry-led and focused on the needs of Queensland’s intensive agriculture. The project particularly investigated the role of risk management tools in industry Farm Management Programs as a means of farmers adapting to climate change.The industries involved in the project included cropping (sugar cane and cotton), horticulture (tree, perennial and seasonal crops, nursery and flower production) and intensive livestock (dairy, aquaculture and meat chicken). The project commenced in November 2007 and completed June 2008.
The “Climate change risks and opportunities assessment for Queensland’s intensive agriculture sector” activity was part of the overall project. QFF invited a number of key scientists and agri-business analysts to participate on an “Expert Panel” and assist QFF to conduct a Risks and Opportunities Assessment which:
- Identified regions and commodities most at risk, and what factors drive the risks
- Provided a preliminary 2nd level analysis of broader implications of identified risks (e.g. for supply chains, markets, regional development, banking/insurance etc)
- Identified opportunities and possible amelioration strategies for Queensland’s intensive agriculture (e.g. new varieties, new crops, new practices, new locations)
- Scoped requirements and adaptation information gaps (e.g. new varieties, new crops, new practices) in shorter term climate projections and regional/industry scenarios and make recommendations for future investment
- Developed a prototype action plan to guide industries in their planning roles
The project has developed far-reaching science capabilities in regards to climate change scenario development and linkages between those developments and risk management for intensive agricultural industries in Queensland.
The Queensland Farmers’ Federation recognises that changes in Queensland’s climate are happening and will continue to do so. Responding to and managing for a changing climate is fundamentally a responsibility of growers and rural industries but coherent government policy and targeted responsive scientific research is needed to support rural industries and growers address and respond to risks arising from a changing climate, while at the same time reducing their greenhouse gas production. QFF strongly believes that further Research and Development and adaptation program design needs to be specifically designed to promote direct interaction between researchers and farmers to improve communication as this process was unique to the project design and is critical in future research. To build on the investment and achievements, future recommendations include:
Climate Data
Of necessity the QFF Climate Change Project had to conduct its activities in a brief eight-month window that often limited investigations and assessments. Nonetheless utilizing the unique Expert Panel and industry workshops, considerable progress has been made in identifying what is being done to help Queensland’s intensive agricultural industries manage the effects of climate variability and the impacts of climate change.
In progressing investigations into climate risks in the future, it became clear that this type of work is very much a “work-in-progress” and it is vital that the underlying climate science research, where possible should be more closely aligned to the decision-making needs of farm families and agribusinesses. A major “sticking point” in the industry workshops conducted during this project was the clear need for more disaggregated climate data and more climate parameters to match those on-ground weather events that may impact the output of intensive farming operations.
While some examples of specific climate information required by industry groups are reported elsewhere in Section 6, as a group the intensive agriculture industries developed a wish list of climate parameters that need to be disaggregated to the regional Queensland level and updated periodically as the climate science capability is further refined. This is the detailed climate data that is required to assist farm decision-making;
- Rainfall – annual and seasonal in percentage change and mm amounts
- Rainfall incidences and intensities, e.g. number of consecutive dry days (<2 mm), number of rain days (>10mm), annual number of electrical storms, cyclonic lows,
- Temperature – annual and seasonal average change percentage and degrees
- Temperature – monthly minimums and maximums % change and degrees
- Frosts – average number frost free days, average timing first & last frost
(<2 deg) - Evaporation – annual and seasonal percentage change and mm amounts
- Heat stress days – average number days + 30 and + 35 degrees
- Stream flow, runoff yields, modelled water allocations.
The industry project participants acknowledged that there may be an accuracy trade-off with some of these climate scenarios but felt an effort should be made to bring the data into a mode where it could be used. It is therefore a strong recommendation of this project that the science effort be continued in this direction.
Climate Change Data
Aside from the discussion above, project participants also made some observations that might help climate scientists develop more useful analyses and presentation of climate change information in the future. In particular, a number of participants noted that graphic presentations on their own are often difficult to interpret, or at least obtain the proper perspective. So it is always useful to present tabular summary data (statistical) as well. We thank the USQ researchers for attempting to accommodate this request in the Experimental presentations in Section 3.
Associated with this argument, industry participants also noted their desire to have both % change and the absolute change presented. This then led to discussion on “% change from what?” as a major issue in interpreting climate change data. Many industry participants noted that if climate change is already happening and trends are already evident, then shouldn’t meteorological and climate data be compared to trend, rather than “averages”? QFF believes this is a particularly important issue when it comes to annual rainfall, given the inter-decadal decline for much of coastal Queensland is already happening at a significant rate of 50mm/decade or more.
There was also some debate about the usefulness or otherwise of climate change modelling scenarios being against the thirty year average between 1961 and 1990. QFF believes that climate scientists should review the relevance of this baseline, especially as industry practitioners try to relate future scenarios to recent experiences, rather than distant past events. While there are undoubtedly sound statistical reasons for presenting GCM outputs in this way, farmers certainly are one interest group that like to see how models track current climate factors before placing a strong interpretation on what they “predict” 20, 40 and 60 years hence.
Future Modelling Research
While climate change modelling output is now showing indicative shifts in rainfall on a seasonal or, in some circumstances, monthly rainfall, a key aspect still required is provision of daily precipitation and temperature values (maximum and minimum) that can be provided as input into agricultural production models. These types of outputs extend to daily evaporation rates and solar radiation rates that are critical in development of more accurate projections for intensive agricultural production. A key aspect of developments of seasonal climate outputs relevant to agricultural production has been the capability of the provision of daily time-steps in rainfall/temperature radiation forecasts. However, this type of output under climate change modelling scenarios that will actually be capable of being integrated into agricultural systems models and decision support systems remains to be done.
Another key important aspect in climate change modelling is to determine ways of understanding reasons for some model disagreements, especiallyat critical times of the year for intensive agricultural production. In this respect, interaction with those major climate modelling centres that have produced useful climate change scenariosunder various emission scenariosis important in order to find ways of overcoming model disagreements (although these disagreements are being reduced in extent) in order to provide even greatercohesiveness in climate modelscenarios for Queensland intensive agriculture.
Research and Development Agenda and CCRSPI process
It is recommended that:
- Improve national research coordination across climate variability and climate change research at all levels of government and across all agricultural sectors (and ideally also fisheries and forestry).
- Build research capacity through targeted, research scholarships and dedicated academic positions to undertake an increasing research agenda on agriculture and climate change.
- Further research and development into improved technologies and management practices that reduce emissions and increase adaptation options in agriculture.
- This project approach be repeated for other agricultural industries, and for other agricultural regions of Australia.
- Additional resources be provided to assist the key intensive industries in Queensland to develop and enhance adaptation strategies and effectively communicate these to all key stakeholders.
- Additional resources be provided to assist with the capacity-building, education and communication strategies required to help key stakeholders in the various industries effectively and efficiently adopt climate adaptation strategies in a timely manner.
- This project report be provided to Land and Water Australia as part of the CCRSPI process, as an outstanding example of approaches to linking policy, industry and science in addressing the challenges of climate change.
- Presentations on the project be made to key stakeholders in government (Queensland and Federal), to AgForce and to the NFF executive focussing on the approach taken and the results obtained.
Decision Support Tools
As a result of the USQ work and feedback at workshops, it has become clear that a new set of decision-support tools (sometimes referred to as ‘discussion-support tool’ where the farming community engages in discussions with advisers and scientists) be developed for intensive industries in Queensland. Such tools need to be developed as much to assist the scientific community in assessing the relevant decision-systems and processes needed for these industry sectors, as for understanding within the industries themselves. A useful reference for these aspects includes Risbey et al. (2004).
Industry Farm Management Systems also need to be constantly updated to take into account ongoing research. This will require close and ongoing relationships between industry bodies and rural R & D corporations, as well as continuing investment into updating FMS programs.
As a foundation activity, this project has helped position QFF and its members to strategically respond to climate change. It has resourced the horticulture, cane, dairy, cotton and production nursery industries to incorporate additional climate risk management tools into their Farm Management Systems (FMS) programs. The project has raised the opportunity of analysing the climate change science and policy as it relates to Queensland’s intensive agricultural industries, investigate industry awareness and attitudes, enhanced communication and networking and started the preparation of strategic action plans.
1
1.Introduction
1.1 Background on industry situation prior to project
Features of intensive agriculture in QLD and GVP
It is convenient to categorise agriculture activities by a number of conventions including commodity output, land use and production systems. In Queensland, an often used convention is to differentiate between mostly coastal activities and those that take place in the wide expanses west of the Great Dividing Range. This division also tends to correlate with rainfall, the coast being a high rainfall zone relative to the drier inland. However, Queensland covers a wide range of possible agro-climatic definitions ranging from the wet tropics in the far north to the near desert conditions of the southwest channel country. Annual rainfalls vary from over 4000mm in the Tully-Babinda region of Far North Queensland to less than 150mm in far South West corner of the state.