Introduction[brca1]

Background and rationale [brca2]

Background

Climate change will have far-reaching consequences for agriculture that will disproportionately affect the poor who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and have a lower capacity to adapt (World Bank, 2007). Already prevalent risks of crop failures and livestock deaths are imposing economic losses and undermining food security, and these are likely to get far more severe as global warming continues. A recent study estimates the annual costs of adapting to climate change in the agricultural sector to be around US$ 7-8 billion (World Bank, 2009).

Agriculture and related activities also contribute to global warming, by intensifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and altering the land surface. Agriculture is estimated to account for about 15% of global GHG emissions and for around 26% if the emissions from deforestation in developing countries – where agriculture is the leading cause of forest conversion – are included (World Bank 2007). Around 80% of agricultural emissions, including deforestation, occur in developing countries (World Bank, 2007). Despite this potentially significant role of agriculture in climate change mitigation, there remains much untapped potential to reduce emissions, notably through reduced deforestation via changes in land use and agricultural practices.

Food security in a world of growing population and changing diets is a major challenge under climate change. Although estimates of food insecurity vary (Barrett et al. 2010), the number of undernourished people already exceeds 1 billion and feeding this many people will require more than incremental changes (Federoff et al., 2010). According to recent estimates, food production may need to increase as much as 70 to 100% by 2050 when the global population will number 9 billion (World Bank 2007, Royal Society of London 2009). Food security depends not only on gross production of staples, but also on agriculture’s ability to provide a diverse and balanced food basket, and on the socio-economic factors that determine whether poor people, particularly women, are able to access, store, prepare and consume sufficient food.

Rationale

Aligning climate and food security objectives is extremely challenging: agricultural responses aimed at adapting to or mitigating climate change can have negative consequences for food security, just as measures taken to increase food security may exacerbate climate change. This complex and dynamic relationship between climate change, agriculture and food security will further intensify in the future, and is also influenced by wider factors. Agricultural and food systems are heavily influenced by socio-economic conditions such as changing patterns of consumption, macro-level economic policies, political conflict and the spread of disease. A report by the World Economic Forum warns that “food security will become an increasingly complex political and economic problem over the next few years” (WEF, 2008).

At the same time, responses need to come quickly: feeding the projected 9 billion people in 2050 requires radical transformation of agriculture over the next four decades, growing more food without exacerbating environmental problems and simultaneously coping with climate change (Godfray et al., 2010). The actions taken over the next 10 years will be especially critical. Collectively we must set foundations for responsive, adaptive agricultural technologies and policies that help people reduce their vulnerability to climate variability, while at the same time paving the way for the successful management of long-term changes.

Concerted action is urgently needed to address this complex challenge. A new research initiative is needed to inform this action – one that integrates and applies the best and most promising approaches, tools and technologies emerging from numerous disciplines. The involvement of farmers, policy-makers, researchers, and civil society in the research process is key. Successful mitigation and adaptation will entail not only individual behavioral changes, but also changes in technology, institutions, agricultural systems and socio-economic systems. These changes cannot be achieved without improving interactions between scientists and decision-makers at all levels of society.

The Mega Program on Climate Change and Agriculture (MP7) [brca3]will address the increasing challenge of global warming and food security on agricultural practices, policies and measures. It will do so by building on the new strategic collaboration between the Alliance of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Centers and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP – see box) established under the CGIAR Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) in 2009. This alliance, with their respective partners, brings together the world’s best scientists in agricultural, climatic, environmental and social sciences to identify and address the most important interactions, synergies and trade-offs between climate change and agriculture. The multi-disciplinary research effort will benefit further from a global comparative approach with adequate representation of ecological and socio-economic contexts, and a research framework that allows aggregation, comparison and general insights of individual country or case study findings. The Program will thus define and implement a uniquely innovative and transformative research program that addresses agriculture in the context of climate variability, climate change and uncertainty about future climate conditions.

The challenge for climate change modeling

The Fourth Assessment (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides an overview of recent scientific understanding on climate change (IPCC, 2007). It brings together evidence and modeling studies that confirm that human-induced temperature increases are taking place, with measurable and increasing effects on snow cover and ice caps, sea levels, precipitation patterns and tropical storm activity. It provides evidence of impacts of these changes on a range of systems around the world, including on marine and freshwater systems, on agriculture and on forest management. Finally, it presents projections for climate change and its impacts under different scenarios over the coming decades.

There is a wealth of scenarios predicting how the global climate might change in the coming decades and over the next century (see e.g. IPCC, 2007). Although there are many uncertainties associated with these scenarios, it is becoming increasingly evident that regardless of mitigation efforts (undertaken today and in the future), temperatures will continue to increase over the next decades because of earlier emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The magnitude and frequency of extreme events are also set to increase over this period in many regions. Adaptation is therefore a necessary response to climate change. At the same time, mitigation of even further climate change is urgent if future changes are to be limited to levels that do not create irreversible environmental changes and devastate lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable.

Climate, however, is only one factor within the dynamic Earth system. Changes in the physical and biogeochemical environment, either caused naturally or influenced by human activities such as deforestation, fossil fuel consumption, urbanization, land reclamation, agricultural intensification, freshwater extraction, fisheries over-exploitation and waste production, contribute to global environmental change. Earth system sciences take a holistic approach to understanding the processes and outcomes of global environmental change by investigating the interactions among land, atmosphere, water, ice, biosphere, society, technologies and economies. The alliance between the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) and the CGIAR will allow access to more context-specific (e.g. ecosystems, farming systems) data and information to enhance the predictive accuracy of climate change scenarios.

The challenge for agriculture

Agricultural systems are complex and dynamic. Some systems are less vulnerable to short-term climate effects (for example, where they are linked to irrigated farming systems fed by reservoirs of large storage capacity). Others, for example those relying on rain-fed agriculture, have always been exposed to uncertain and extreme climate but may now face variability beyond the current ‘coping range’. In vulnerable systems, climate change threatens food security, livelihoods and economic prosperity (UNDP, 2007).

The AR4 has gathered scientific evidence and expert opinion on the expected impacts of climate change on agricultural systems (IPCC, 2007). The report notes that climate change is already having an impact, for instance, through changes in patterns of variability and associated changes in rainfall distribution. It anticipates with high confidence that projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events, together with increases in risks of fire and pests and pathogen outbreaks, will have significant consequences for food and forestry production, and food security. The impacts of projected changes in mean climate conditions are also expected to be negative. It identifies smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and fishers as likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The AR4 finds that Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change, because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. Projections indicate an increase of arid and semi-arid land, and in some countries yield reductions in rain-fed agriculture of up to 50% by 2020; but some parts will also get wetter. In Asia, potential changes in the monsoon, and in glacier and snow melt are perhaps the greatest threats. Sea level rise is also of great concern as coastal and deltaic areas are often heavily populated and intensively cultivated. The natural and managed habitats of fish will be greatly influenced, with declining productivity in fisheries very likely. The report recognizes that, despite a decade of research on climate change adaptation, considerable knowledge gaps remain, particularly concerning the adaptive capacity of food, fiber, forestry and fishery systems.

Climate variability and risk has always been a part of agriculture, and farmers have developed many ways of managing that risk. Enhancing adaptation strategies is an important part of the work of the CGIAR centers. Developing drought-resistant and other abiotic stress-tolerant crop varieties, and soil and water management practices for marginal areas, for example, have long been core activities of the CGIAR centers. Climate change introduces a new dimension to the problem. The unprecedented rate and magnitude of climate change presents great challenges to farmers, researchers and policymakers alike. The CGIAR centers have already begun to address the climate change challenge (SciDevNet, 2007; Verchot and Cooper, 2008).

Current efforts to increase adaptation and mitigation options provide a sound basis for the next phase of research on climate change and agriculture. However, this phase must go far beyond what is currently being done. New responses are needed, as well as new ways of working. These must be instilled with a degree of urgency, reflected in the research agenda, its implementation, and in the delivery and outreach of outputs.

Vision of success and intended impacts[brca4]

The Program is designed to contribute to improved agricultural, natural resource management and food systems (Figure 1). [brca5]Impacts are sought in three dimensions: (a) environmental, in particular related to reducing emissions and improving carbon storage; (b) enhancing livelihoods, by reducing vulnerabilities, increasing adaptive capacity and raising incomes; and (c) improving food security[i]. While much of the focus will be on agricultural production, the entire food system will be targeted, as solutions to the challenges posed by climate change have to go beyond agricultural production.[ii] AlthoughWhile the notion of securing win-win-win outcomes for these three dimensions is appealing (Global Donor Platform, 2009, FAO 2009a), we have to recognize the considerable trade-offs that are likely among these dimensions (Campbell, 2009; FAO, 2009b).

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By achieving outcomes for poverty, on hunger and on environmental healthsustainability, the Program will directly contribute to the Strategy and Results Framework (SRF) for the CGIAR.[iii] The Program has the following impact targets, derived through our own analyses (e.g. see Annex a) and from the analyses undertaken for the SRF:

  • By 2020 the Program will help reduce poverty by 10%, increasing the incomes of hundreds of millions of people.
  • By 2020 the Program will contribute to the reduction in hunger, cutting the number of rural poor who are undernourished by 25%;
  • By 2020 the Program will have helped agriculture contribute to climate change mitigation by enhancing storage or reducing emissions of 1000 Mt CO2-eq (considering all gasses).

The vision of success for the Program includes surpassing these impact targets, achieving the multiple outcomes of the Program (Table 1), and being recognized, together with the partners, as the “go-to place”: the foremost global source of relevant research results that lead to options and strategies for tackling food insecurity in the face of climate change[brca7]. In terms of the new CGIAR, the Program seeks to become a hub that facilitates collective action across multiple Centers and CGIAR Programs[brca8].

Evidence that intended impacts can be achieved [brca9]

To achieve the impacts (see previous section), this Program has planned for 13 key outcomes (Table 1). In addition, as linear pre-determined pathways to impact are the exception rather than the rule[brca10], the Program will also put in place procedures and systems for exploiting the opportunities that emerge for outcomes and impact[brca11]. The planned outcomes cover an inter-woven package of technologies, approaches and policies, both for adaptation and mitigation, and are targeted at various levels, from the farm level to global policy arenas.

Table 1. Outcomes planned in each of the four Themes, over a 4-8 10 year time horizon[brca12]

Theme 1: Adaptation to Decadal Climate Change
Outcome 1.1: Agricultural and food security strategies that are adapted to conditions of predicted climate change promoted by the key development and funding agencies (national and international), civil society organizations and private sector in at least six countries.
Outcome 1.2: Better strategies for breeding for future climatic conditions mainstreamed among more than three quarters of the international research agencies, and by national agencies in at least 12 countries.
Outcome 1.3: Broader range of approaches to enhancing resilience and productivity are deployed to support resource-poor farmers by key development and funding agencies, with demonstrable adoption of these approaches by the major international NGOs, and by national agencies in at least six countries.
Theme 2: Adaptation Pathways for Current Climate Risk
Outcome 2.1: Systematic technical and policy support for farm- to community-level agricultural risk management strategies that buffer against climate shocks and enhance livelihood resilience in at least six countries.
Outcome 2.2: Better climate-informed management by key international, regional and national agencies of food crisis response, post-crisis recovery, and of food trade and delivery for price stabilization, food aid and livelihood security in at least six countries.
Outcome 2.3 Enhanced uptake and use of improved climate information products and services, and of information about agricultural production and biological threats, by resource-poor farmers, particularly vulnerable groups and women, in at least six countries.
Theme 3: Poverty Alleviation through Mitigation
Outcome 3.1: Enhanced knowledge about agricultural investments and decisions that maximize the benefit-cost [brca13]ratio for mitigation, poverty alleviation, food security and environmental heath, used by national agencies in at least six countries.
Outcome 3.2: Improved knowledge and tools to support carbon market development used by buyers, sellers (farmers’ organizations) and intermediaries for crop-soil management, agroforestry, and irrigated rice systems in at least 12 countries.
Outcome 3.3: Key agencies dealing with mitigation in at least 12 countries promoting new institutional arrangements and incentive systems that favor resource-poor farmers, particularly vulnerable groups and women.
Theme 4: Diagnosis and Vulnerability Assessment for Making Strategic Choices
Outcome 4.1: Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies mainstreamed into national policies in at least 12 countries, in the regional policies in each of the targeted regions, and in the key global processes related to food security and climate change.
Outcome 4.2: International and national agencies, research organizations and non-governmental organizations using new knowledge, arising from a better understanding of the impacts of climate change, to better target vulnerable populations in at least 12 countries.
Outcome 4.3 Improved frameworks, databases and methods for planning responses to climate change used by national agencies in at least six countries and by at least 10 key international and regional agencies.
Outcome 4.4 New knowledge and tools[brca14] on how alternative macro policy and program options impact agriculture and food security under climate change, incorporated into strategy development by national agencies in at least six countries and by at least 10 key international and regional agencies.

The Program will work on outputs[brca15] that are directly relevant to the outcomes. The outputs will, inter alia: improve the effectiveness of research undertaken in other CGIAR Programs so that they incorporate the effects of climate change, and thus lead to technologies, practices and policies that increase productivity, enhance food security and lower food prices; identify climate risk adjustment strategies to reduce variability in production; and develop mechanisms by which small farmers can participate in carbon markets.

In order to reach the desired impacts, at a scale well beyond the sites where field trials and surveys will be undertaken, the Program will partner with some of the major international multi-lateral and non-governmental agencies, while at the same time being grounded in work with national agricultural and meteorological agencies, and local NGOs. By influencing, together with partners, global and regional policy processes, the Program will also be able to scale up impact. Considerable attention will be given to ensuring coherence across the scales of operation (Cash et al, 2006).[brca16]