THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY IN Reducing FUTURE OIL SANDS INDUSTRY Greenhouse Gas EMISSIONS
Jennifer M. McKellar, Faculty of Energy Systems & Nuclear Science, UOIT, +1 416 316 3402,
Sylvia Sleep, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto,
Diana Pacheco, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto,
Jessica Chan, ISEEE, University of Calgary,
Joule A. Bergerson, ISEEE, University of Calgary, +1 403 220 5265,
Heather L. MacLean, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, +1 416 946 5056,
Overview
The oil sands industry in northern Alberta, Canada has grown rapidly over the last few decades. One improvement the industry has experienced is a large decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity between 1990 and 2010 [1]. However, overall emissions over the same period increased significantly [1]. There are concerns that as the industry continues to grow, so too could overall emissions even if emissions intensity continues to decline. There are also regulations in place and under development that aim to reduce GHG emissions by targeting the life cycle emissions intensity of transportation fuels (e.g., California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard): the total emissions per unit of transportation fuel that result from the production, processing, transport and refining of crude oil. Transportation fuels produced from crude oils that can be produced and refined with lower GHG emissions intensity will perform better under these regulations.
Given these pressures, it is expected the oil sands industry may continue to reduce its emissions intensity. The objective of this work is to gauge optimism regarding the industry’s potential to reduce GHG emissions intensities through the use of technology, over the next 20 years. Such insights can be used to inform research and development activities, as well as policy development. The role of technologies is poorly understood and data in the public realm is insufficient to model the technological, environmental and cost performance and tradeoffs of the various technologies being considered. However, policy decisions require this information. New methods are required that merge engineering models and expert elicitation methods. This also requires maintaining a delicate balance between comprehensiveness and protection of company intellectual property, confidential technology, and strategic advantage.
Methods
This analysis uses expert elicitation, e.g., [2], which is used when available data are of poor quality or data are unavailable. Our first step is to hold a workshop for industry representatives. During this workshop, participants: learn the fundamentals of expert elicitation and some of the challenges it presents (e.g., related to bias among experts); share insights into how they would prefer to participate; and anonymously answer some initial questions on the future of the oil sands industry. Our second step is to deliver a brief (30-minute) online survey to a broad range of oil sands industry experts (from the industry itself, as well as government and academia) to gather further insights into the future emissions intensity performance of the industry. Ultimately, the results of this expert elicitation will be used to enhance and improve our life cycle models of transportation fuels produced from oil sands outputs (well-to-wheel models), e.g., [3].
Results
Preliminary findings based on our initial workshop suggest that experts have differing views on the future performance of the oil sands industry, both in terms of potential improvements to currently operating technologies and the use and impact of emerging technologies. For example, when asked about the future performance of a type of emerging technology, all respondents who provided an answer (some responded as “don’t know”) expected it to improve energy efficiency but the degree varied, as did the extent to which it could be applied.
Conclusions
Predicting the future performance of an industry as dynamic as the oil sands industry is not straightforward. There are myriad forces at play, some external (e.g., GHG emissions regulations) and some internal (e.g., reservoir qualities, development and implementation of new technologies). Even among people working within the industry there are differing views on how these factors will influence the industry over time.
The results of our analysis, both the insights gained during the initial workshop and the results of our more comprehensive online surveys, can be used to inform research and development activities, as well as policy formulation. For example, the differing views on emerging technology performance and applicability suggest that continued reduction in industry GHG emissions intensity is possible, but the degree is uncertain. These preliminary findings indicate that continued significant declines in emissions intensity may require regulatory instruments or further support of the development and implementation of emerging technologies.
References
[1] Environment Canada. 2012. National Inventory Report 1990-2010: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada, Part 1. Government of Canada.
[2] Curtright, A.E.; Morgan, M.G.; Keith, D.W. 2008. Expert Assessments of Future Photovoltaic Technologies. Environmental Science and Technology. 42: 9031-9038.
[3] Charpentier, A.D.; Kofoworola, O.; Bergerson, J.A.; MacLean, H.L. 2011. Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Current Oil Sands Technologies: GHOST Model Development and Illustrative Application. Environmental Science and Technology. 45: 9393-9404.