The Morning Call/

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion

SURVEY OF PENNYLVANIANS ON
THE WAR in IRAQ

KEY FINDINGS REPORT

April 27, 2006

KEY FINDINGS:

1. Pennsylvania residents continue to express dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq.

2. Only about 1 out of 3 commonwealth residents approve of President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq.

  1. A substantial majority of commonwealth voters indicated that the war in Iraq has not made the nation safer from terrorism.

4. A plurality of Pennsylvanians would like to see Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld resign from his office.

METHODOLOGY: The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a telephone survey of 508 registered voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between April 17 and 25, 2006. Individual households throughout the state were selected randomly for inclusion in the study. The sample of phone numbers used in the survey was generated by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, PA. Interviewing was conducted by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and PMI of Easton Pennsylvania. This number of completions results in a margin of error of +/- 4.3% at the 95% confidence interval. However the margin of errors for sub groups (i.e. women, Republicans) is larger due to smaller sample size. Percentages throughout the survey have been rounded to the nearest percentage, thus many totals in the results will not equal 100. The data has been weighted to account for an over sampling of women. The survey questionnaire was designed by Christopher Borick, Ph.D. of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in consultation with staff members of the Morning Call. Analysis and report writing were completed by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion under the direction of Dr. Borick.

ANALYSIS: With the war in Iraq now into it’s third year, Pennsylvanians continue to hold strongly negative views regarding America’s involvement in the conflict. Solid majorities of commonwealth residents indicate that the benefits of the war have not been worth the cost incurred by the United States, and that President Bush has not handled the situation in Iraq well.

These are among the findings in the most recent Morning Call/ Muhlenberg College Poll of Pennsylvanians. The results also show skepticism among Keystone state residents regarding the war’s impact on making America safer from terrorism.

PRESIDENT BUSH AND THE WAR: As the war in Iraq continues on President Bush received significant disapproval (60%) of his handling of the war from Pennsylvanians. These findings closely mirror a recent national survey by The Pew Research Centerthat showed 65% of Americans do not approve of George W. Bush’s war management. Over the past two years the level of disproval for President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq has dramatically increased among Pennsylvanians. More specifically, in March of 2004, 42% of commonwealth residentsdisapproved of the President’s handling of the war, with 53% disapproving of Bush’s war management in 2005.By reaching the 60% disapproval mark this spring, the President has seen his disapproval marks increase by 18% in the past two years.

As during the presidential campaign, partisan affiliation appears to be a major factor in determining approval of the president’s handling of the war. Most notably, Keystone state Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove of Bush’s war efforts, with 86% indicating dissatisfaction with this aspect of the president’s work. Conversely, only 34% of Republicans in the commonwealth disapprove of the commander in chief’s handling of Iraq. Disapproval of Bush’s war management is also highest among women, senior citizens, and lower income groups.

VIEWS ON DONALD RUMSFELD: With a great deal of criticism for the war’s failures being directed to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, there has been increasing calls for his resignation. The results of this survey show that by a margin of 46% to 37% commonwealth residents would like to see Rumsfeld leave his post in the Pentagon. By a margin of 3 to 1, Democrats in the KeystoneState would like to see Rumsfeld resign, while GOP faithful support the veteran official’s decision to stay on with the DoD.

IMPACT OF THE WAR: Pennsylvanians continue to demonstrate skepticism regarding the value of the war in terms of the costs paid and safety gained. First, a majority (58%) of commonwealth citizens state that all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, the war in Iraq was not worth fighting. This marks an 16% increase since March of 2004 in the percent of state residents who do not believe the war has been worth the costs. Similarly, residents of the Keystone state expressed doubt that the war has made Americans safer from terrorism. President Bush has a expressed the position that the U.S. involvement in Iraq is part of the larger War on Terror. However, a majority (58%) of Pennsylvania residents indicate a belief that going to war in Iraq has not made U.S. citizens safer from terrorism.

Christopher P. Borick, Director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion

QUESTION RESULTS

Field Dates: 4/17/06 – 4/25/06

Total Completions: 508 Registered Pennsylvania Voters

Margin of Error: +/- 4.4% at 95% Level of Confidence

(Percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding)

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

Response / March 04 / May 04 / Oct 04 / March 05 / Sept 05 / April 06
Approve / 45% / 42% / 41% / 40% / 34% / 32%
Disapprove / 42% / 46% / 49% / 53% / 57% / 60%
Not Sure / 10% / 11% / 8% / 5% / 9% / 7%
Refused / 2% / <1% / 2% / 3% / 1% / <1%
  1. Do you think Donald Rumsfeld should or should not resign as Secretary of Defense?

April 2006
Should Resign / 46%
Should No Resign / 37%
Not Sure / 17%
Refused / <1%

3.All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?

Response / March 04 / May 04 / Oct 04 / March 05 / Sept 05 / April 06
Worth Fighting / 47% / 41% / Na / 38% / 34% / 35%
Not Worth Fighting / 42% / 49% / Na / 53% / 59% / 58%
Not Sure / 10% / 9% / Na / 6% / 7% / 7%
Refused / 2% / 1% / Na / 3% / 0% / 0%
  1. In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans safer from terrorism, or not?

Response / March 04 / May 04 / Oct 04 / March 05 / Sept 05 / April 06
Safer From Terrorism / 39% / 36% / 37% / 35% / 33% / 34%
Not Safer From Terrorism / 48% / 56% / 56% / 56% / 60% / 58%
Not Sure / 12% / 8% / 7% / 6% / 7% / 7%
Refused / 2% / <1% / <1% / 2% / <1% / <1%

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