The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security

The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security

The Case of Sudan

Dr. Kamil I. Hassan

Introduction :

Agriculture, which is the major economic activity on earth, becomes possible when water, energy and sunshine are available in the required amounts and in the required spatial and temporal patterns. Plants grow only when water is available in the right quantity and during the right season. Thus, plant coverage over the world tends to differ in time and space according to the differences in the amount of water and the differences in the seasons during which water is available. Water is obtained through the natural mechanism of precipitation forms the main controlling factor for the natural vegetation as well as for the agricultural activities in the traditional societies. Thus what sorts of plants should grow or be grown and what season should witness the sowing of seeds is largely a function of the precipitation regimes in the different parts of the world.

Agricultural production in Sudan is practiced throughout the country under five distinct systems :

1. Irrigated agriculture
2. Mechanized rain fed agriculture;
3. Traditional rain fed agriculture;
4. Flush irrigation agriculture and
5. Livestock raising.

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes in general. The above mentioned systems are mainly affected by four climatic factors (rainfall, temperature, floods and wind) which play a decisive role in the performance of crops, pasture, forestry and livestock .

The quantity and distribution of rainfall is essential factor in the success of the different crops in the rain fed sector .Rains also assist even in the establishment of crops in the irrigated sector and has appositive effect on soil condition and it is a source of drinking water for human beings and livestock in the vast agricultural areas.

Attributed to the fluctuation in rainfall, Sudan witnessed wet and drought cycles through out the last decades. The country has passed through a number of drought and low rainfall seasons (83/84 – 84/85 – 90/91 – 93/94-2002/2003 - 2004/2005) leading to:

Decrease in crop production lead to food insecurity due to shortage in cereals.

Bad pasture condition leading to the death of large numbers of livestock.

Low income

Displacement.

Table (1 )

Cereal Food Balance For The Period 1984/85to99/2000

Season / Production (Tons) / Consumption
(Tons) / Balance
(Tons)
Rain-fed / Irrigated / Total
84/85 / 816 / 528 / 1344 / 2770 / -1426
85/86 / 3345 / 868 / 4123 / 2850 / +1363
86/87 / 3103 / 616 / 3719 / 2930 / +689
87/88 / 1160 / 537 / 1697 / 3020 / -1323
88/89 / 4448 / 719 / 5167 / 3110 / +2057
89/90 / 1304 / 802 / 2106 / 3200 / -1094
90/91 / 750 / 1201 / 1951 / 3270 / -1319
91/92 / 3006 / 1778 / 4784 / 3370 / +1414
92/93 / 3623 / 1321 / 4944 / 3470 / +1474
93/94 / 2004 / 1078 / 3082 / 3580 / -498
94/95 / 3896 / 1173 / 5069 / 3680 / +1389
95/96 / 2327 / 1035 / 3362 / 3835 / -473
96/97 / 3743 / 1518 / 5261 / 4047 / +1214
97/98 / 2774 / 1274 / 4048 / 4126 / -92
98/99 / 4416 / 710 / 5126 / 4306 / +679
99/2000 / 2269 / 840 / 3109 / 4667 / -1433

Source: Ministry of Agriculture.

Excessive rains can damage crops , make fields unworkable , and prevent access to remote areas. In addition, high humidity can encourage plant diseases and ruin stored food ,

2/Temperature:

Temperature is an important variable in agricultural production because there are some crops sensitive to temperature variability at different stages of growth. Winter crops like wheat, pulses and some legumes are very much affected by the timing of winter and the degree of coolness during the season. For example in season 1998/1999, the Temperature degrees are above normal and winter is late so the yield of winter crops is low.

3/Floods:

Floods are cuased by over – abundance of rain or by short rains of high intensity. This makes the river channel at a certain points is inadequate to carry off the up normal quantity of water ,causing the waterway to overflow its banks and cover the surrounding low lands . Flood may cause direct losses in crops , animals and land and this lead to loss of income and community insecurity .

Table ( 2 )

Shows an estimation of flood damage in the different schemes season 2003

State / Cultivated area (feddan) / Cost (millionSD) / Irrigation canals (million ccm) / Cost (millionSD)
River Nile / 15000 / 20 / 1.5 / 20
Northern / 12000 / 30 / 1.5 / 20
Upper Nile / 8000 / 60 / 3 / 50
White Nile / 8000 / 60 / 4 / 60
Sinar / 7000 / 60 / 4 / 60
Kassalla / 11842 / 347.5
Elgash / 20000 / 10 / 1.5 / 90
Toker / 8000 / .008 / 70
Abu Habil / 1000 / 1 / 0.1 / 5
Jabel Mura / 500 / 4
Gezira scheme / 174741 / 4599.4 / 330
Rahad scheme / 67000 / 779.6 / 133.8
Halfa scheme / 17340 / 338.5
Suki scheme / 9568 / 75 / 25

Source: Ministry of Agriculture.

4/Wind:

Strong winds and severe storms can damage standing crops and contribute to flooding. In addition, windy days at certain period of the season may have an adverse effect on the production of some perennial crops, e.g strong wind at the time of flowering of citrus, mango causes shedding of flowers, and accordingly poor yields are expected .

Food Economy of Sudan :

In his paper ( The Food Crisis in Sudan ) ,Dr. John Seaman - Save the Children Fund ( UK ) states that :" Currently , the food economy of Sudan may be seen as being made up of ;

• large scale rain - fed sorghum production , chiefly in Eastern Region
• extensive irrigated production in the Gezeira ( between the two Niles ) and Girba and other locations . Cotton and other cash crops make up much of the irrigated production although this also includes wheat and some other food crops .
• a large ( subsistence ) production from family and middle-sized units , chiefly of sorghum and in more northern areas of millet
• substantial livestock production both intandem with cereal production in wetter areas and exploitingthe vast semi-aridnorthern areas such as the Red Sea Hills where there is little or no cereal production
• the production and distribution in Sudan is extremely complex , and defies analysis other than on a very broad scale or in a very local detail . As in all economies people obtain food from :
• their own production
• by purchase using cash obtained by paid work
• in time of scarcity in some locations by the collection of the so – called famine foods i.e. wild crops which may make up a small part of normal food supply . "

Table (3)

Average Total Area per Crop for the Period 1990 – 2004 ( in 1000 fed )

Crop / 1990-94 / 1995-99 / 2000-04 / C.V
1990-2004
( % ) / Rate of Growth
(1990-94 and 1995-1999 ) / Rate of Growth
(1995-1999 and 2000-2004)
Sorghum / 10733 / 13259 / 12912 / 22 / 24 / -3
Wheat / 849 / 620 / 300 / 46 / -27 / -52
Millet / 2841 / 6123 / 5948 / 37 / 116 / -3
Sesame / 2229 / 3660 / 3811 / 36 / 64 / 4
G.nut / 1086 / 2779 / 3143 / 47 / 156 / 13
cotton / 446 / 485 / 389 / 29 / 9 / -20

Source : Computed by ElFaki,H, from the data of the Ministry of Agriculture – Agric. Economics and Statistics Department.

Table (4)

Average Total Production of the Main Crops for the Period 1990-2004

( in 1000 tons )

Crop / 1990-94 / 1995-99 / 200-04 / C.V.
1990-2004
( % ) / Rate of Growth ( 1990-1994 ) to ( 1995-19999)( % ) / Rate of Growth
( 1995-1999 ) to (2000-2004 ) %
Sorghum / 2546 / 3281 / 3349 / 35 / 29 / 2
Wheat / 573 / 475 / 298 / 41 / -17 / -37
Millet / 245 / 632 / 646 / 50 / 158 / 2
Sesame / 152 / 288 / 286 / 44 / 90 / -1
G.nut / 104 / 323 / 337 / 49 / 212 / 4
Cotton / 84 / 86 / 71 / 30 / 2 / -17
Gum Arabic / 15 / 24 / 10 / 56 / 66 / -58

Source :Computed from the data of the Ministry of Agriculture – Department of Agric. Economics and Statistics

Table (3) and (4) show noticeable variation in areas and production . This is mainly due to the instable climatic conditions especially in traditional rain - fed agriculture.

Table (5)

Agric. Domestic Product compared to the Total Domestic Product

For the period ( 1990-2004 )

Item / 1990-94 / 1995-99 / 2000-04 / Ratio of Growth of (1990-94 ) to ( 1995-1999) / Ratio of Growth of (1995-1999)to
(2000-04)
Agric. Domestic Product in 1981/1982 prices
(in mil SD ) / 291.0 / 532.2 / 705.0 / 79.8 / 34.8
The Average Growth of Agric. Domestic Product (% ) / 11 / 10 / 5 / -14.1 / -45.1
Total of the Total domestic Product in 1981/1982 prices ( in mil SD ) / 667.3 / 1112.2 / 1678.8 / 66.8 / 50.9
Ratio of Agric. To the Total Domestic Product (% / 51 / 47 / 42 / -7.3 / -9.4

Source :Computed by ElFaki,H . from different reports – Bank of Sudan.

Table (6)

Quantity and Value of the main Agric. Exports

Item / 1990-94 / 1995-99 / 2000-04 / Rate of Growth ( 1990-94 ) and ( 1995-99 ) / Rate of Growth ( 1995-99 ) and ( 2000-04 )

Exported Quantities ( 1000 Tons )

Sesame / 79.359 / 145.170 / 172.482 / 83 / 19
G. Nuts / 7.879 / 5.567 / 6.702 / -29 / 20
Cotton / 83.026 / 73.780 / 59.521 / -11 / -19
Gum Arabic / 19.635 / 22,060 / 24.767 / 12 / 12
Sheep ( alive ) / 63531 / 1131.627 / 983.777 / 79 / -13
Ground Nut Oil / 14.920 / 24.991 / 6.252 / 67 / -75
Sesame Oil / 1.680 / 0.695 / 0.809 / -59 / 16

Value of Exports ( in 1000 U$ )

Sesame / 55588 / 101808 / 99819 / 83 / -2
G.Nuts / 4113 / 2707 / 2997 / -34 / 11
Cotton / 121414 / 90627 / 65376 / -25 / -28
Gum Arabic / 38860 / 30676 / 35056 / -21 / 14
Sheep ( alive ) / 61262 / 37909 / 70227 / 21 / -5
G.N. Oil / 12000 / 21652 / 3886 / 80 / -82
Sesame Oil / 1930 / 888 / 1265 / -54 / 42

Source : Computed from different sources.

Table (7)

Average Yield of Sorghum in Sudan / Production System

for Different Periods

Item / 1970/71-2003-04 / 1978/79 – 1990/91 / 1991/92-2003/04
Average (kg/fed) / 624 / 783
C.V. (%) / 33% / 17%
Kg/fed/year / 14.5 / 17.8
Flood Irrigation
Average (in kg/fed) / 473 / 562 / 595
C.V.(%) / 37% / 40% / 29%
Kg/fed/year / 9.6 / 21.2 / (0.1)
Mechanized rain-fed
Average( in kg/fed ) / 256 / 410 / 211
C.V. (%) / 37% / 30% / 20%
Kg/fed/year / (5.3) / (13.1) / (4.0)
Traditional rain-fed
Average ( kg/fed ) / 223 / 187 / 203
C.V. % / 39% / 47% / 25%
Kg/fed/year / (3.7) / (15.9) / 7.0

Source : Computed from different reports – Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry .

Drought and desertification in North Kordofan , drought and tribal conflicts in North Darfur and civil strife in Baharel Gazal have all led to sorghum production declines . Moreover , they accelerated migration and displacement and brought about immense implications for food security for both migrants and inhabitants of the areas hosting them ."From the tables we reach at a very important fact : though the productivity of sorghum in Baharel Gazal is the highest the resilience of the eco-system is the weakest i.e. within only 41 years it equals zero while it is 96 years in North Darfur . This proves that the negative impact of civil strifes on the eco-systems is more persistent. This fact should be taken in consideration when the disasters of war and unrest were numerated .

Table (7)

Average Yield of Millet in Sudan according to Irrigation System

for Different Period

Item / 1970/71-2003/04 / 1978/79-1990/91 / 1991/92-2003/04
S. and W Kordofan/Darfur
Average kg/fed / 97 / 89 / 54
C.V. (%) / 76% / 65% / 40%
Kg/fed/year / (5.2) / (12.1) / 1.7
N.Kordofan/darfur
Average kg/fed / 152 / 139 / 145
C.V.(%) / 31% / 36% / 42%
Kg/fed/year / (1.6) / (10.9) / 1.4

Table (8)

Average Yield of Wheat/ Area in Sudan

for different periods

Item / 1970/71-2003/04 / 1978/79-1990/91 / 1992/92-2003/04
Gezira/Managil
Average yield kg/Fed / 577 / 517 / 681
C.V. (%) / 29% / 24% / 27%
Trend :kg/fed/year / 8.3 / 12.0 / 11.6
NorthState
Average yield : kg/fed / 893 / 823 / 149
C.V. (%) / 32% / 27% / 16%
Trend :kg/fed/year / 15.9 / 43.5 / 19.6
The NileState
Average yield :kf/fed / 731 / 681 / 880
C.V. (%) / 34% / 20% / 37%
Trend :kg/fed/year / 14.6 / 19.8 / 27.6
W.N.State
Average yield :kg/fed / 501 / 508 / 580
C.V. (%) / 32% / 19% / 31%
Trend : kg/fed/year / 8.9 / 8.9 / 2.3

Table (9)

Average Yield of cotton in Sudan / Type

for different Periods

Item / 1970/71-2003/04 / 1978/79-1990/91 / 1991/92-2003/04
Long staple
Average yield :kg/fed / 526 / 475 / 532
C.V. (%) / 28% / 32% / 27%
Trend:kg/fed/year / (0.1) / 17.0 / 16.2
Accala
Average yield : kg/fed / 622 / 657 / 600
C.V. (%) / 24% / 28% / 15%
Trend : kg/fed/year / (0.6) / 9.3 / (7.2)
American
Average yield :kg/fed / 197 / 220 / 158
C.V. (%) / 56% / 56% / 60%
Trend : kg/fed/year / 1.5 / 15.1 / 15.0

Source :Computed from different Reports – Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Table (10)

Average yield of cotton in Sudan compared to its yield in other countries

( in kg/ hectare )

Country / Season
1990/91 / 1994/95 / 2000/2001 / 2001/2002
Sudan / 397 / 476 / 434 / 412
Egypt / 709 / 841 / 926 / 951
Syria / 927 / 1079 / 1414 / 1323
West Africa
Benin / 482 / 426 / 403 / 408
Cameroon / 469 / 445 / 478 / 464
Mali / 558 / 475 / 450 / 481
Borkina Faso / 465 / 341 / 438 / 467
Ivory Coast / 583 / 383 / 478 / 464
World average / 573 / 584 / 609 / 624

Source: Computed by ElFaki,H.

Table (11)

Water and Labour productivity for the main crops based on the average yields for the period 1992-2004

Crop / Yield ( in kg/fed ) / Water ( in cubic meter ) / Labour ( in man day/fed ) / Crop productivity/Water (in kg/cubic meter ) / Crop productivity/labour ( in kg/ man day )
Irrigated crops
Long staple cotton / 532 / 3780 / 57.72 / 0.141 / 9.217
Middle staple cotton / 600 / 4710 / 72.15 / 0.127 / 8.316
Wheat ( Gezira / 681 / 2532 / 8.23 / 0.269 / 82.746
Wheat ( Nile ) / 1149 / 2940 / 12 / 0.391 / 95.750
Wheat ( N.State) / 989 / 2520 / 12 / 0.392 / 82.417
Sorghum (Gezira ) / 783 / 2140 / 39.16 / 0.366 / 19.995
G.nut ( Gezira ) / 891 / 2960 / 82.56 / 0.301 / 10.792
Rain-fed crops
Sorghum ( central ) / 204 / 2100 / 20 / 0.097 / 10.200
Millet ( N. Kordofan/ Darfur ) / 54 / 1470 / 12 / 0.037 / 4.500
Millet ( S. Kordofan/Darfur / 154 / 2520 / 12 / 0.061 / 12.833
G.nut (N.Kordofan/Darfur ) / 192 / 1470 / 30 / 0.131 / 6.400
G.nut (S.Kordofan/Darfur ) / 222 / 2520 / 35 / 0.088 / 6.343
Sesame Mechanized ( Gadaref ) / 91 / 2100 / 15 / 0.043 / 6.067
Sesame traditional ( S.Kordofan/Darfur ) / 59 / 1470 / 12 / 0.040 / 4.917
Sesame traditional (N. Kordofan/Darfur) / 77 / 2520 / 13 / 0.031 / 5.923

Source : Computed by ElFaki,H.

Table (12)

Size of Livestock in Sudan

during the period 2000-2005

Item / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005
Cattle / 37093 / 38325 / 39479 / 39667 / 39760 / 40468
Rate of growth (%) / - / 3.3 / 3.0 / 0.5 / 0.2 / 1.8
Sheep / 46095 / 47043 / 48440 / 48440 / 48910 / 49797
Rate of growth (%) / - / 2.0 / 2.3 / 0.6 / 1.0 / 1.8
Goats / 38548 / 39952 / 41485 / 42030 / 42179 / 42526
Rate of growth (%) / - / 3.6 / 3.8 / 1.3 / 0.4 / 0.8
Camels / 3108 / 3203 / 3342 / 3503 / 3724 / 3908
Rate of growth (%) / - / 3.0 / 4.3 / 4.8 / 6.3 / 4.9
Total / 124844 / 128523 / 132442 / 133640 / 134573 / 136699

Source : Computed from different Reports – Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Table (13)

Animal Products in Sudan during the period 2000-2005

( in 1000 tons except the hides in 1000 piece )

Item / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005
Red meat / 1522 / 1569 / 1628 / 1663 / 1672 / 1694
Rate of growth (%) / - / 2 / 3.6 / 2.2 / 0.5 / 1.3
Milk / 6879 / 7095 / 7298 / 7344 / 7406 / 7534
Rate of growth (%) / - / 3.1 / 3.9 / 0.6 / 0.8 / 1.7
Poultry / 15 / 16 / 18 / 19 / 22 / 24
Rate of growth (%) / - / 6.7 / 12.5 / 5.6 / 5.8 / 9.1
Eggs / 20 / 22 / 22 / 25 / 28 / 30
Rate of growth (%) / - / 5 / 4.8 / 0 / 27.3 / 7.2
Fish / 56 / 58 / 60 / 68 / 70 / 65
Rate of growth (%) / - / 3.6 / 3.4 / 13 / 2 / (7.1)
Hides / 26384 / 27878 / 29274 / 30495 / 30373 / 32106
Rate of growth (%) / - / 5.7 / 5.0 / 4.2 / (7) / 5.7

Source : Computed from different Reports – Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Many researchers summarize the causes of food deficit into the following :

1-the breakdown of primary production systems;

2-the breakdown of food procurement systems ;

3-pauperization, or regressive redistribution of wealth;

4-environmental degradation; and

5-Malthusian demography.

The breakdown of primary production systems is mainly attributed to droughtand desertification (especially farming or livestock systems ), with a major loss of output. " Such a breakdown may also imply a loss of productive capital and recovery capability e.g. breeding livestock, seed or tree stocks , tools , perhaps soil fertility".M. Mortimore . A typical example of such a breakdown is what had happened in Dar Fur in the season 1983/84. Here it might be interesting to raise the question : whether decline in food availability is a necessary condition of famine. " Reconstructing the Bengal Famine of 1943-44, SEN ( 1981 ) argues that such a decline , on a scale sufficient to explain the famine, did not occur but that instead there was a significant decline in food entitlements of certain socio-economic classes. He extended his argument to the famine in Ethiopia in 1972-4, using official crop production assessments and price data , and claimed that " the Ethiopian famine took place with no abnormal reduction in food output";and to the Sahelian famine of the same period ; using FAO production statistics , where the hypothesis of food availability decline , according to him ," despite its superficial plausibility in explaining the Sahelian famine , …. Delivers rather little ."

Desertification has several definitions. Stebbing ( 1938 ) defined desertification as " encroaching Sahara ." Aubreville ( 1949 ) defined desertification as follows :" There are real deserts that are being born today under our eyes ." Dregene ( 1976 ) define it as :" The impoverishment of terrestrial ecosystems under the impact of man . It is a process of deterioration in these ecosystems that can be measured by reduced productivity of desirable plants, undesirable alternation in the biomass and the diversity of the micro and macro fauna and flora , accelerated soil deterioration , and increased hazards for human occupancy ". UNCOD ( 1977 ) illustrated that :" Desertification is the diminution or destruction of the biological potential of land and can lead ultimately to desert-like conditions ."

The breakdown of food procurement systems means breakdown in access to food for a large proportion of the population through the loss of direct production or by the loss of market purchasing power or by the failure of non-market distribution systems or all the three together. That is because availability does not necessary means accessibility or affordability. As long asSudanis concerned in most cases food insecurity is not a result of deficit in production but rather a result of poverty and lack of social security ( Dar Fur , eastern and southern Sudan ).

In his MSc thesis Salih Hussienfound that the destruction of the ecosystems caused by civil strife is more persistent than that caused by drought – severely weakens the resilience power of the ecosystems and at the same time hinders the flow of goods.

Abda and Hassan,K.I. in a study based on wholesale price of millet in four market locations , namely Umkeddada , Elfasher , Kutum and Nyala during the period January 1986 – December 1996 found that :" All markets are disintegrated though the probability of integration may be present in a long –term stable relationship . That means the supply sources are more important than the demand sources in prices formation ."

Pauperization, or regressive redistribution of wealth can not be detached from the evolution of political economy and the social relationships of production. BAIER ( 1980 ) wrote :" Drought-famine associations form a part of the process of historical change in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa ." The following ( theory ) was formulated ;' In all famines . there occurs a redistribution of wealth ( productive assets , savings , moveable property and cash ) from the poor to the rich – either in situ or in distant ( usually urban ) places. Adverse movements in the terms of trade make it harder for the poor to recover afterwards. So recurrent famines have a ratchet effect, intensifying pauperization stepwise , widening social inequality , and ( since assets embody economic opportunities ) reducing the adaptive capabilities of the poor. In the ( Wild Food Research Project ) final report conducted by a group of researchers ( 1994 ) ; it was found that restocking of livestock in Darfur after the famine season ( 1983/ 84 )needed only five years ; but the statistics say that 80% of the rural population owned animals before the famine but only 20% of them owned animals after the famine ( accumulation of wealth ).

Concerning the environmental degradation , I believe that the most serious problem threatening our natural resources is desertification followed by drought. Using UNEP data, STILES and BRENNAN ( 1986 ) state dramatically :

" The clock is ticking : an environmental time bomb. It is now 4.48 p. m. At the rate of 27 million hectares lost a year to the desert or to zero economic productivity , in a little less than 200 years at the current rate of desertification there will not be a single fully productive hectare of land on earth. It will be the earth's mid-night ." Here I must say that though we literally the desert creeping in front of eyes we failed up-till now to measure the rate of desert encroachment or take action to mitigate its adverseimpacts ( the rational intervention ). ( Cloudsley – Thompson 1984 ) argue that :" desertification is caused almost entirely by human misuse of environment …. This misuse , which is not necessarily the result of ignorance , take the form of felling trees to provide fuel , overgrazing by domestic animals and harmful agricultural practices ". Tolba, 1986 writes :" Eachpiece of land has what we call carrying capacity ( for humans and animals ) …. When that number is exceeded, the whole piece of land will quickly degenerate from overgrazing or overuse by human beings." Some advocate an alternative view saying that :" Poor people value the long-term benefits of productive assets , to which they enjoy secure rights of access and try to manage them in such a way as to realize these benefits , even at high cost in terms of short-term benefits foregone ."

To show the difficulties encountered in assessing environmentaldegradation we cite Walls, 1984 :" The UNEP doctrine of world-wide desertification is extremely influential , although adequate resourcesfor implementing the Plan of Action have not so far been forthcoming from the world community ." To determine the trends of rainfall, ten locations were selected ; then using ten-year moving average the straight line equations were calculated ( viz graphs below ) . In all ten locations there is a continuous decline in rainfall .

The Malthusian Demography view could be summarized in the following lines :" Famine cause a major increase in mortality , either from starvation or from reduced resistance to diseases . Such mortality temporarily checks the increase of the population , whose rate ( especially in African countries ) is excessive in relation to the natural resource base , exceeding or threatening to exceed human carrying capacity . Famine may result from overpopulation .