The Harvard Business Review and Wired magazine think it is of immediate importance. Christian Futurist Leonard Sweetcalls it one of the top five trends of the day? What is it?
It is the Well Curve.
The well curve is the bell curve turned upside down. It is a modern social and economic phenomena where the distribution of statistics becomes bi-model. That is results tend to cluster on the ends instead of in the center. The old bell curve bulging middle disappears.
In 1734, Abraham de Moivre described a normal distribution as the method needed to analyze errors in experiments. Within a century, the popular mind decided that all other probability distributions were not normal. By the 20th Century, the bell curve was used to describe the distribution of IQ scores in the population - a few were smart, a few were not and most scores were clustered in the middle. That bell curve paradigm became the dominant, most widely used method of describing what data was "normal" and what was not.
In the world of today, however, we find the bell curve does not always fit the circumstance. In economics, says Daniel Pink, the big grow bigger, the small multiply and the mid-sized wane. There is a 60 inch plasma TV screen at home, a miniature screen on the cell phone but no market for a boxy 19 inch television set.
We took a look at what the well curve might mean to church organization. Are we called to bi-modality as well? Is there a new normal? We are, after all, talking about the true nature of reality. What is happening to the middle?
David Horne, IMN President
The Emptying Middle
By Tom Huheey
Students taking standardized tests are either doing very poorly or very well. When you analyze theFederal Reserve Board's wealth data by dividing it into five equal segments, all five are growing but thetop two and the bottom two are growing faster than the one in the middle. When consumers are notshopping at a big box store, they are shopping at small, specialty boutiques. They drive right by the midsizedstores.
Chad Hall has studied the well curve in his capacity as a public speaker, teacher and coach. As anordained minister specializing in church planting, he sees the well curve impacting congregationalorganization in four important ways.
Membership
In the past, "normal" was a church that expected most members to be moderately involved. Out on theedges, there were those who were barely involved and those who were highly involved. Choice seems tobe shifting away from the middle and towards the edges. Does the well curve accurately describemember participation in your specific church?
Theologically, has the congregation aligned it’s self with two opposite positions and the moderate
disappeared? Do churchgoers in your community prefer mega-churches or micro-churches but avoid midsizedcongregations? One symptom of this paradigm shift will be experiencing church-goers who want tobe highly involved or barely involved.
Churches who embrace the well curve, Hall says, allow for a sense of belonging at both ends of thespectrum. There are, in effect, two kinds of membership. One is quick and available to all immediately.The other reflects considerable choice and commitment to high expectations.
Money
It is obvious that a well curve model produces a decline in "average givers." The old 80-20 rule no longerapplies. Having just one standard stewardship strategy won't work. Hall recounts the story of one pastorwho pushed for a commitment to the tithe. "The minimal giver stopped giving at all and some even left thechurch. On the other hand, the big givers adjusted their giving downwards towards the ten percent." Thepastor found a way by devising a model where givers started small but progressed towards increasedgiving over time.
In many stewardship models, giving consistently is more important than the percentage given. It is thedisciplined use of God's money that is the spiritual benefit.
Movement
In the well curve model, it's not whether you are in or out but are you moving along? Many mega-churchesfollow a deliberate plan to entice seekers with large scale, even spectacular, experiences. Theattending congregants are then invited to participate in small and more individually tailored groups whereanonymity is turned to intimacy. Church membership is characterized by movement towards a greaterspiritual life.
Too often, the big middle strategy is satisfied with promoting attendance at Sunday school, a practice thatoften fails to deliver intimacy. Self-contained clumps are not perceived as either welcoming or caring.
Labor Force
Who will do the work of the church? The bell curve brought us "Mrs. Sally who taught fourth graders 50weeks a year for the past 20 years." The well curve paradigm is to spread the burden and therefore makeit light. The shift in church staffing is to emphasize short-term or rotating volunteers. Thus, a temporarytask force is preferred to a permanent committee.
In the well curve model, high capacity volunteers or part-time staff bring continuity and oversight to teamsof temporary volunteers who have promised to do a limited project in a specific amount of time. As aresult, leaders aim to get two-thirds of the congregation involved at some time during the year. Volunteersare recruited by specific promises to limit the time and scope of their contribution and thereby enablethem to fit their volunteer effort into a very busy life.
The well curve is, of course, something like a bar bell - the weight is at the ends. The successful pastormust minister to people where they can be found. In spite of the entrenched power of the bell curve, anew paradigm may be in order. If the middle is hollow, the energy is at the edge.