Term Paper Outline s2
Finance 4050 Valuation Term Project – Outline
Group Selection of Company: due Thursday 9/7
Company Name
NYSE Ticker and Closing Price
Location of Company HQ
CEO
Primary Products/Services
Revenues for last three years
Net Income for last three years
Names and section numbers of group members
Finance 4050 Valuation Term Project – Outline
Style Matters
· Things to include:
o Executive summary (Conclusions –e.g., great company, but stock is overvalued); both overall for entire presentation and for each unit
o Table of Contents; also on a unit basis
o Index to Paper (Include page numbers)
§ List Appendices in the Index
o Bibliography
o Appendices (supporting data and other information should be in an appendix)
· Things to worry about:
o Sources – minimum of 20
o Directly attributable quotes from industry – minimum of 8
o Tables, Figures and Charts must have appropriate titles
§ May require color printing in order to be meaningful.
o Proper citations are required. (Under no circumstances should anything be copied without identifying the source with a proper citation of the source materials.)
o In all cases, you and your group members need to decide what needs to be communicated and develop an effective presentation. Write, edit, rewrite, edit and so until satisfied with the presentation.
· Suggestion About the Presentation:
o Much of the paper is about data and the analysis and/or conclusions
§ Develop tables, charts, figures and exhibits that show what you want the reader to examine – include in the paper.
§ Put tables, figures and charts in the text body if you want the reader to examine it or if you refer to the data. Put the material in an appendix if it is supporting material.
o Develop and present analysis
§ Avoid describing what can be seen in the table, chart, figure or exhibit.
§ Focus on interpretation, analysis, insights, and drivers of value.
§ Relate numbers to what has happened to the firm/industry/economy
· Submit
o Paper copy
o Electronic Copy for checking vs. Turn-it-in.com.
Notes about the project & its evaluation:
1. Responsibility:
- Each group member is responsible for each unit of the paper.
- The paper is an integrated whole.
2. Tables/Figures/Charts/Exhibits
- Should be used to effectively present information
- Must have titles and, where applicable, source references.
- Must be in the body of the text if referring to materials.
- If Tables/Figures/Charts/Exhibits relevant to the presentation are stuck in an appendix and the reader is referred to look at Table such and such in the appendix, this is not an acceptable professional approach and your paper is in trouble.
- Materials that are not used to present the story should be in an Appendix to the paper.
3. Appendices
- Each appendix should be number, e.g., Appendix A
- They contain materials that the reader might like to look at, but are not needed to tell the story developed in the paper.
- Should be at the end of the paper.
4. Page Numbering
- Pages must be numbered.
- Pages numbers should follow from one unit to the next.
5. Within a unit, use major and minor headings to show topics covered and tell reader that you are moving from one subject to another.
6. A paper or section of the paper with just tables/figures/charts is unacceptable. Must have text to go with the information.
7. Papers should have
- Table of contents (Unit Titles and Major Sections) with page numbers.
- Proper citation of source materials and direct quotes.
- Direct copy of text should have “” and citation of source materials.
- An Executive Summary at the beginning of each unit
- Bibliography
8. Once done, look over the final presentation to make sure that it is a professional presentation. If it is not, do it over until you get to be what you want.
Structure of the Paper: (Subject to Change)
· The paper is broken into seven “Units.”
o Unit 1: The Company, Industry and Competitors.
o Unit 2: Financial Performance Analysis
o Unit 3: Cost of Capital, Capital Structure Analysis and Distributions
o Unit 4: Financial Statement Forecasts
o Unit 5: Cash Flow Valuation
o Unit 6: Relative (Multiples) Valuation Analysis
o Unit 7: Summary and Conclusions
Unit 1: The company, industry and competitors.
· Opening Exec Summary – Unit 1; Table of Contents – Unit 1
· Section 1: Business description (See 10K – Annual Report)
· Section 2: Brief company history
o Focus on recent events – (events that have or will affect value)
§ Acquisitions – divestitures
§ Expansion – contraction announcements
§ New products
§ Law suits
§ Events (possible, probable or for sure that impact cash flows and firm value)
· Section 3: Products and Competition
o Major products
§ Where produced – Where sold
§ Show how each product area contributes to company sales and profits.
§ Identification of major cost components.
o Competitors
§ Market share data
o Competition (how do firms compete?)
§ Price – quality – service and so on.
§ Who is the “dominant company” in this industry and why is it the dominant company?
· Section 4: Corporate control (Management and share ownership)
o Management qualifications
§ Brief description of the “key” people in the firm.
§ Background
§ How long have they been with the firm?
§ Compensation [salary and options]
o Share ownership and compensation plans (compare with comparable companies)
Signals / implications??
§ Executive compensation plans
· Total compensation = salary + bonus + options
· Compare with 2 or more similar companies
§ Members of the board of directors (insiders or outsiders)
§ Insider – Institutional Share ownership
· Compare with “comparable” companies. (Why is this important?)
§ Are insiders buying – holding – selling (recent data)
· Compare with “comparable” companies
· Section 5: The future
o Financial analysts
§ Analyst earnings and sales estimates
§ Analyst’s buy/sell/hold recommendations.
§ Positive or negative earnings surprises?
§ Use brokerage (analyst) reports
o In general, what is going to happen to the company (sales, profits, share price, and so on) over the next five to 10 years?
§ expert opinions (forecasts)
§ your opinion (forecast)
Unit 2: Financial Analysis (historical)
· Opening Exec Summary – Unit 2
· Table of Contents – Unit 2
· Two major sections
o Stock price (return) performance over the past 5+ years
o Financial Performance over the past 5+ years
· Objectives for each section:
o Relative to the comparable firms and or index, determine whether your firm is superior, similar or inferior.
o Speculate about the reasons for your performance conclusion.
o Indicate whether you believe the past performance will or will not continue into the future.
· Section 1: Performance: Stock price /returns
o Need to compare/contrast company with
§ comparable companies and/or portfolio of comparable companies
§ market
o Absolute Performance
§ Arithmetic mean/standard deviation/coefficient of variation
§ Geometric Mean Return (monthly or annualized)
§ $100 grows to _____
· Section 2: Financial Performance (three parts)
o Part 1: Growth Performance
§ Growth Rates (company, comparables, industry, sector and market)
o Part 2: Financial Performance
§ Financial Ratios (company, comparables, industry, sector and market)
§ Financial Statements including Common-Size and % Change, and analysis/value drivers of each
§ Financial Condition Ratios/ Profit Margin Ratios/ Management Effectiveness / Efficiency Ratios
o Part 3: DuPont Analysis – Company and Industry
§ Calculations, Analysis, Commentary on DuPont components as it affects company’s and industry’s ROA and ROE
o Part 3: Altman’s Z-Score Analysis – Company and Industry
§ Calculations, Analysis, Commentary on Z-Score components as it affects company’s and industry’s likelihood of financial distress
Unit 3: Cost of Capital, Capital Structure Analysis and Distributions
o Opening Exec Summary – Unit 3
o Table of Contents – Unit 3
o Three major sections:
o (1) Debt, (2) Internal Equity, (3) New Equity
§ Discussion / analysis on:
o Relevant Costs of each component
o Relevant Financial ratios (debt)
o Factors/ issues affecting, including for equity: CAPM – Beta, relevant risk-free Treasury, and risk premium; Unlevering /relevering Beta for change in Capital Structure to target?
o Weights: BV/MV/Target
o Descriptive presentation /discussion analyzing the firm’s capital, its capital structure, and industry’s
o Cost of capital
§ Historical numbers
§ Your forecast numbers
o Distributions (Dividends and Share repurchases) to shareholders and vs. Plowback Rate
§ Historical numbers
§ Forecast of future behavior.
Unit 4: Financial Statement Forecasts
o Opening Exec Summary – Unit 4
o Table of Contents – Unit 4
o Section 1: Presentation of final forecast parameters/ assumptions.
Historical versus your forecast
Present/Discuss Basis for/Defend using your research to support
o Section 2: Presentation of your pro forma financial statements
Historical and Pro Forma
Present/Discuss projections
Use of Fade graphs and commentary
o Section 3: Presentation of Financial Ratios
Historical and Pro Forma
§ Present/Discuss/Defend (what the forecast has done to the company relative to what it was in the past)
§ Include Financial Condition Ratios/ Profit Margin Ratios/ Management Effectiveness / Efficiency Ratios
§ DuPont Analysis – Based on Company Forecasted Financials
· Calculations, Analysis, Commentary on DuPont components as it affects company’s ROA and ROE at one-year forecast and Horizon point
§ Altman’s Z-Score Analysis – Company Calculations, Analysis, Commentary on Z-Score components as it affects company’s likelihood of financial distress at one-year forecast and Horizon point
Unit 5: Cash Flow Valuation
*Exec Summary Unit.5
*Table of Contents Unit 5
*Present, discuss, defend, analyze, and comment on the cash flow valuations and methods.
*Drivers of Value; items affecting each method
*Compare to market value.
*Articulate/discuss what makes respective methods /stronger/better/not as good for your firm.
Unit 6: Relative (Multiples) Valuation Analysis
o Opening Exec Summary Unit 6;
o Table of Contents Unit. 6
o Show the list of minimum of 10 comparable companies.
§ State procedures/strategy used to identify companies with comparable financial characteristics
o Show and discuss the list of companies and their associated current valuation multiples
o Show multiples valuation of the company
o Discuss results, validity, issues, compare to analysts.
o
* Multiples Analysis Format can be used as per class slides from Website instead of below
Unit 7: Summary and Conclusions
I. CASH FLOW METHODS:
II. MULTIPLES ANALYSIS:
Multiples Values and Prices: Present most relevant multiples determinants and prices.
For both CF methods and Multiples, briefly recap best estimators of value, their strengths, and relevant drawbacks of methods that are not as strong determinants of value.
Once done, look over the final presentation to make sure that it is a professional presentation. If it is not, edit and refine until desired results obtained.
Group Financial Statement Presentation
Purpose:
To present completed and tied out financials from Model (Condensed/Comprehensive/Actual) to those downloaded from Mergent /Thomson –One. (Excel spreadsheet flows from Actual to Comprehensive to Condensed tie to downloaded company financials.)
To address other salient company / group issues.
Deliverables for Presentation:
1. One-page Exec Summary on status of tied-out financials.
a. Current Status?
b. Issues?
c. What’s been tried by each group member?
d. What’s results of what’s been tried?
e. Next steps / potential remedies?
f. Other Items / questions that need to be addressed.
2. Printed-Out copies of downloaded financials from Mergent / Thomson –One
3. Printed –Out copies of Condensed / Comprehensive / Actuals
4. Laptop opened to company Excel Model Condensed Sheet
5. Printed-Out Units 1 & 2 Draft write-ups
6