SupplementaryMaterial 2

Table S2-1 Conversion of temperatures to chill units using Chill Hour (CH), Utah (UT) and North Carolina (NC) Model.

Chill Hour model / Utah model / North Carolina model
Temperature(°C) / Chill units / Temperature(°C) / Chill units / Temperature(°C) / Chill units
T≤0 / 0 / T≤1.4 / 0 / T≤1.6 / 0
0T 7.2 / 1 / 1.4T≤ 2.4 / 0.5 / 1.6T≤ 7.2 / 0.5
T≥ 7.2 / 0 / 2.4T≤ 9.1 / 1 / 7.2T≤ 13 / 1
9.1T≤ 12.4 / 0.5 / 13T≤ 16.5 / 0.5
12.4T≤ 15.9 / 0 / 16.5T≤ 19 / 0
15.9T≤ 18 / -0.5 / 19T≤ 20.7 / -0.5
T> 18 / -1 / 20.7T≤ 22.1 / -1
22.1T≤ 23.3 / -1.5
T> 23.3 / -2

Figure S2-1 Plot of estimated probability of green-up from model output. The 8-day time steps are on the horizontal axis. Open circles indicate the estimated probability of green-up of each 8-day time step ((S(t-1)-S(t)) curve), and closed circles indicate theestimated cumulative probability of green-up. The vertical dashed line indicates the time step with highest predicted probability of green-up, which we used as the estimated time step of green-up. The 95% HPD interval for the estimated probability of green-up at each time step is too narrow (about ±0.001) to show in the figure.

Figure S2-2 Maps of residuals of green-up dates for nine years. The unit is converted from 8-day time step to days.Black lines are state boundaries. White areas indicate non-deciduous forest area.

Figure S2-3Difference of cumulative GDD and CU on 150th day of year between the current period (2001-2009) and the ensemble future period (2046-1065), 2057 (MIROC) and 2047 (GFDL) across the latitudinal gradient. Cumulative CU is represented by triangles and cumulative GDDis represented by squares. The dashed line indicates zero difference. A positive difference indicates higher values in the future period or year.

1