SUMMER 2013 EXAMINATIONS: A LEVEL RESULTS AND ADVICE ABOUT GCSE

This special bulletin provides:

Headlines concerning national trends in A-level results

Concerns about results affecting HMC schools notified over the first 48 hours since release

Advice about potential patterns in next week's GCSE results

To help HMC build an accurate picture, please distribute this bulletin to your relevant subject staff for comment and feedback to. A word version of this bulletin for onward distribution can be found here.

National trends (all UK entrants)

  • As in 2012, A* and A grades down compared to the peak of 2011.
  • B and C grades up ; D and E grades down.
  • STEM subjects still rising; MFL still falling.
  • EPQ entries up 6% (following rise of 19% in 2012).
  • Disparities in entry by gender increasing in some subjects.
  • Boys more likely to secure A*; girls more likely to secure A*-A.
  • AS results overall virtually identical to last year
  • The national authorities have declined for the first time to issue a breakdown of grade profiles achieved by independent and by maintained schools ‘because of the large numbers of fee-paying schools that have become academies’. This reasoning clearly is nonsense: do the concealed figures show further gains by our sector?

What does this mean?

  1. In final awarding meetings, the big decision was to raise the grade boundary between A and B. This increased the pool of students achieving B at the expense of A* and A and allowed the national authorities to maintain that standards are being protected.
  2. This should not impact negatively on theoverallentry to Russell group universities (candidates achieving the grade range A*-B is slightly up this year, increasing marginally the pool achieving ABB among whom the universities can compete freely).
  3. However,unreported in the national press, it is striking that the squeeze on A* and A grades compared to 2012 is strongest in the ‘hard subjects’: especially, physics, maths, further maths, French, and economics; but also in chemistry, English, history, German, Spanish, law and music.
  4. The effect of (iii) may be to cause some candidates difficulties in meeting their offer grades.

‘Specific things to watch out for’: A level issues posted by HMC members (first 48 hours)

  • Grading in MFL continues to be severe at the highest grades. Ofqual has announced a review of this problem and so schools should consider contacting universities (especially Oxbridge) on behalf of candidates who have just missed their offer grades. Some schools have already done this; the more that do so, the greater the likelihood of fairness for such candidates (please circulate HMC with such correspondence).
  • Moderation of the EPQ: has this been questionable among your candidates? If so, please let us know.
  • Durham delaying decisions in Clearing. Students at some schools who have missed a grade are being told by Durham that they will not receive a decision until Wednesday 21/8. Is this true in your case? Do you have similar examples to report by other universities?
  • History A-level: OCR. This was last year’s defective A-level in terms of reliable grading and two members so far have reported problems in 2013. Is it a problem for you?
  • Maths A-level: Edexcel C3. Members will recall a new paper was substituted following a leak, leading members and HMC itself to make representations to Edexcel about the severity of the new paper. So far, we have evidence that this problem has been well handled by Edexcel, with candidates not being disadvantaged by the harsh replacement paper. Is this true for your candidates also?
  • Religious studies A-level: AQA. Two members have reported specific problems with modules RST3B and RST4C. Please check if your candidates are affected in this area.

iGCSE

  • English iGCSE (CIE). Do you have odd results, with language grades being too generous and literature grades a long way down from where they should be? If so, please let us know.

‘Early warning’ from Ofqual about GCSE results

Ofqual has written to us to explain why, for GCSE in 2013, ‘the overall results could look different to results in previous years even though standards will be maintained’. It points especially to the following changed patterns in candidate entries. These all appear to be the result of maintained schools ‘gaming the system’ on a large scale in order to maximise the chances of securing C grades in English and maths.

  • Increased early entry (students from Year 10 or earlier). In maths this has risen from 18% to 23%; the rises in English are smaller. The effect on grades could cut either way (with more able candidates being entered early or, perhaps more likely, younger less well prepared candidates being entered in the final year that these GCSEs are modular). Increased entries for iGCSE. These are very substantial: in maths entries since last year have risen from 34,000 to 45,000 and in English from 18,000 to 78,000. If, as seems likely, these surges are due to the perception that it is easier to gain a grade C in iGCSE than in GCSE, overall results for the diminished GCSE cohort would rise.
  • Meanwhile, can Cambridge International and the other boards maintain reliable marking in iGCSE with such sudden increases in candidates?
  • Multiple entry: increased numbers of students entered for more than one GCSE in the same subject. This is deemed likely to increase volatility in the pattern of results year on year (setting grade boundaries is more complex; results for individual students can appear to show that exams in one board are easier than in another; student performance may vary due to the intensity of their personal examination timetable, etc.).

In addition, GCSEs with ‘increased challenge’ are being awarded in 2013 for the first time in additional science, applied science, biology, chemistry and physics.

WBR

16th August 2013