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/ EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EUROSTAT
Directorate F: Social and Information Society Statistics /
Doc. Eurostat/F/11/DSS/01/3.6EN
Item 3.6.
Negative priorities for the annual work programme 2013
meeting of the european directors of social statistics
luxembourg, 21-22 September 2011
BECHbuilding, room QUETELET

Contribution to the discussion on negative prioritiesin 2013

  1. Introduction and summary

With regard to the preparation of the ESS Work programme 2013, discussion started on the possible negative priorities. In this context, CDH data collection, undertaken in 2007 and 2010 under a gentleman agreement, is proposed as a negative priority in 2013.

Reasons for that proposal relate to an analysis of final results of previous CDH data collection rounds: limited country coverage, limited improvements between the two first data collection rounds, strong methodological concerns, although users needs, especially within the European Research Area and EU 2020 targets, remain high.

The DSS is invited to give its opinion on this proposal. If agreed, this would also be submitted to the ESSC.

  1. Context

Human resources are fundamental to the creation, commercialisation and dissemination of innovation. Among them, doctorate holders and other research qualification holders are not only the most qualified in terms of educational attainment, but also those who are specifically trained to conduct research. Not much is known, however, about their career and mobility patterns on the labour market. This is why the OECD, the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) and Eurostat launched a collaborative project in 2004, aimed at developing internationally comparable indicators on the careers and mobility of research qualification holders. An expert group with representatives from national statistical bodies was formed to develop the technical components of the project and start compiling data at national level.The statistics on Careers of Doctorate Holders (CDH) have been designed to measure demographic, employment, career and salary characteristics of these persons, as well as, and in particular, their international and sectoral mobility and its driving forces.

  1. The CDH data collection exercises (CDH 2006 and CDH 2009)

The Careers of Doctorate Holders survey for the reference year 2006 (CDH 2006) was the first international coordinated round[1] of this data collection, and thus had a certain element of ‘pilot exercise’. All in all, 26 countries participated in the initial CDH 2006 survey, i.e. most of the MemberStates of the European Union, of EFTA and some of the most important other members of the OECD, such as the United States and Australia.This data collection, as well as the next one (see below), was undertaken under a gentlemen agreement within the ESS.

The next round of the CDH survey is currently carried out by OECD, UIS and Eurostat with 2009 as reference year (CDH 2009). Based on the experiences from the CDH2006 survey, intensive work has been carried out to improve the model questionnaire, the questionnaire manual and the methodological guidelines. These guidelines provide guidance on the target population, sampling frames, sampling design, etc., that should be respected in the national surveys in order to provide harmonised and comparable statistics.

In the course of 2010, Eurostat published a limited set of basic data and indicators in its "Statistics Explained" web dissemination environment. The main statistical findings presented were limited to comparable data linked to personal characteristics; employment characteristics and work perception; job satisfaction and reverse international mobility.

Besides that, Eurostat and the OECD are currently working on the publication of data in their respective dissemination environments (Eurobase for Eurostat) for all or part of a set of commonly defined and agreed CDH 2009indicators, including also comparable CDH 2006data. The goal is to publish the agreed indicators still in 2011after validation of the CDH 2009 data.

  1. Methodological concerns

A common, harmonised definition of the target population is critical for the success and usefulness of the CDH data.The other necessary success factor is the readiness to conduct a dedicated survey because potentially available registers do not offer enough information for most important variables on tracking DHs career paths and their mobility.

In summary, the national target population for the CDH survey consist of persons who, in the reference year, fulfil the following criteria: (1) have an education at ISCED 6 level, obtained anywhere in the world; (2) live (permanently or non-permanently) in the survey country, and; (3) are not older than 69 years in the reference year.With these definitions and the assumption that all countries conduct dedicated survey according to the common methodological guidelines and the survey questionnaire, the whole population of doctorate and other research qualification holders living in those countries will be covered and all necessary information will be obtained. The resulting statistics should thus be complete and fully comparable between participating countries.

However both 2006 and 2009 data collections own serious drawbacks from the desired situation. Firstly the EU27 results are missing due to non-participation (FR, IT, UK) or limited participation (DE – register data) of the largestMember States. Secondly those who participated had largely incomplete population frames (e.g. covering only those graduated from domestic universities) or they prepared the most evident tabulations using only existing sources (e.g. passing the dedicated CDH survey). In most cases, very limited improvements have been noted in the CDH 2009 compared with the CDH 2009, in terms of countries participation, completeness and comparability of the data. The limited use of dedicated surveys imposes strong limitations in data availability and comparability, namely in the measurement of DHs mobility and career paths.

  1. User needs

The Commission, DG RTD, has been interested on data and indicators development on researchers or DHs mobility. This need is linked to the European Research Area Monitoring (ERAM) and one of the indicators listed is specifically on mobility. The list will likely be adopted in 2012 with the ERA framework.

Presently no other statistics could replace the CDH. Through its contractor DG RTD has made an attempt trying to obtain researchers’ mobility data based on the surveys to businesses and other institutions. Together with very low response rates restricted access to registers for sampling frames left the project not entirely reaching its targets (MORE project). However, DG RTD is preparing to repeat the successful part of the MORE project, the university sector’s researchers.

No other user needs have especially been expressed. Although comparable statistical base beyond basic variables derived from already available LFS and/or R&D data (number of DHs/researchers, breakdown by sex and age) is scarce, the interest is there. The OECD has been staying interested although the original initiator, the US, has not shown further moves towards obtaining more comprehensive survey population than used so far.

  1. Eurostat’s opinion

Considering the methodological and coverage related issues mentioned above, the opinion of Directorate ESTAT-F would be to stop Eurostat work in the next rounds of CDH data collection when CDH 2009 is closed, i.e. by the end of 2011. This means that the next CDH data collection, which could have taken place in 2013 at national level – according to a 3 years cycle, ie CDH 2012 as data relate to reference year 2012- will not be launched at Eurostat level. The CDH project would therefore be considered as a negative priority in2013.

  1. Risks

The most immediate consequences of setting the CDH project as a negative priority at ESS level would be as follows:

CDH 2006 and CDH 2009 data collections being subject to Eurostat grants to those Member States involved, there would be no more Eurostat grants for any future data collection. This could lead Member States to therefore also stop the national data collection, due to restricted resources.

Stopping the project would lead to the absence of any published data from future collection rounds at Eurostat level and would impactthe visibility acquired by Eurostat in the recent past by the provision to policy users of data for the monitoring of ERA and EU 2020 indicators (measuring DHs careers and mobility), even though standards of data quality had to be improved.

OECD seems to be willing to take over Eurostat involvement in future CDH data collection. Funding was recently provided by OECD by DG RTD (200 K€ / 2 years) for the development of data analysis and methodological work namely related to: the extension of country coverage; the development of new indicators linked to early career, research careers, job-to-job mobility, international mobility of DHs; the use of micro-data. Weaknesses identified above should also be addressed during the course of this work.

After Eurostat withdrawal it would be then up to each MemberStateto consider its future involvement in the OECD / UIS project.

[1] Coordinated by UIS, OECD and Eurostat.