Peeter Vihalemm
Comparison of development trends
Estonian Human Development Report 2010/2011 seminar, 14-15 Oct 2010
One of the main aims of the Estonian Human Development Report would be to generalize the experiences of two decades of transformation in order to find out, can we speak about the ‘Baltic model’ of development, comparing trajectories of change in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with some other countries in the Baltic Sea region? Are three Baltic countries belonging to the same type of ‘welfare capitalism’? Comparing development trends in economy, social sphere and public opinion climate, can we find more similarities or differences between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania? How can we explain these findings?
In my presentation I will start with this analysis, comparing dynamics of some main economic, social and cultural indicators through two decades in Baltic countries and if possible, also in Poland, Russia and Finland. Figure 1 presents data on GDP per capita in 1990-2009 (own calculations, original data are given in US dollars at 2005 price, purchasing power parity is not taken into account).
Figure 1. Changes in GDP in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland and Russia
Source: UN World Economic Prospects and Social Survey. Update as of mid-2010
www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html
As we can see, three Baltic countries have relatively similar general development pattern, though Estonia’s economic growth is bigger and faster, decline in 1990s much smaller.
In social sphere I have chosen for comparison two indicators – life expüectancy at birth and Gini coefficient (Figures 2 and 3).
Figure 2. Life expectancy at birth in Baltic countries, Poland, Finland and Russia
Source: Human Development Report statistics http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics.data
Figure 3. Gini coefficient in Baltic countries, Poland and Finland
Source: Milanovic 1998, Eurostat
On the basis of figures above we can conclude that social development trajectories of three Baltic countries are relatively similar, especially looking at first indicator, life expectancy. Development of Gini coefficient has been quite similar in 1990s, but a bit different in in 2000s – in Estonia there is a clear trend of decreasing social inequality.
Trends of public opinion development in 1990s and early 2000s can be followed on the basis of results of New Baltic Barometer, conducted by prof Richard Rose and his colleagues 1993-2004. The best indicator of public opininion climate seems to be evaluation of system changes, evaluation of present economic system and political regime in comparison with evaluation of socialist economy and Communist regime.
Figures 4, 5, 6 Changes in the evaluation of past and present systems
Source: Rose & Maley 1994; Rose 1997; Rose 2000; Rose 2002; Rose 2005
As we can see from Figures 5, 6, 7 and Table 1, there are big differences in system change evaluations of Estonians, from one side, and Latvians and Lithuanians, from the other side. Latvians and Lithuanians evaluated present economic system and political regime higher than Soviet past only in 2004 (Latvians also political regime in 1993), when Estonians did it over the all period 1993-2004 (with exeption of evaluation of changes of economic system in 1993).
1993 / 1996 / 2000 / 2001 / 2004 / 1993 / 1996 / 2000 / 2001 / 2004 / 1993 / 1996 / 2000 / 2001 / 2004
Positive evaluation of socialist economy before independence / 53 / 48 / 44 / 53 / 57 / 59 / 74 / 76 / 60 / 49 / 75 / 76 / 83 / 71 / 69
Positive evaluation of the present economic system / 43 / 69 / 79 / 76 / 81 / 21 / 22 / 37 / 59 / 51 / 22 / 25 / 25 / 41 / 73
Positive evaluation of the former Communist regime / 32 / 22 / 48 / 53 / 38 / 36 / 41 / 52 / 54 / 31 / 46 / 43 / 56 / 52 / 50
Positive evaluation of the present system of governing / 58 / 69 / 70 / 71 / 76 / 46 / 37 / 49 / 56 / 49 / 46 / 37 / 45 / 47 / 69
Source: Rose & Maley 1994; Rose 1997; Rose 2000; Rose 2002; Rose 2005
Table 1. Estonians’, Latvians’ and Lithuanians’ evaluation of social system change (% of positive evaluations)
Estonians / Latvians / Lithuanians1993 / 1996 / 2000 / 2001 / 2004 / 1993 / 1996 / 2000 / 2001 / 2004 / 1993 / 1996 / 2000 / 2001 / 2004
Economic system / - 10 / 21 / 35 / 23 / 24 / - 38 / - 52 / -39 / - 1 / 2 / - 53 / - 51 / - 58 / - 30 / 4
System of governing / 26 / 47 / 22 / 22 / 38 / 10 / - 4 / - 3 / 2 / 18 / 0 / - 6 / - 9 / - 5 / 19
Figure 4. Difference in evaluation of present and past system (share of postive evaluations of present system minus share of positive evaluations of past system)
As New Baltic Barometer surveys stopped in 2004, I choose for comparative analysis of general attitudes in recent years data of Eurobarometer on life satisfaction.
Figure 7. Life satisfaction in Baltic countries, Poland and Finland
(results of autumn surveys of respective year, % of satisfied)
Source: Eurobarometer
On the basis of Figure 7 we can conclude that in the new EU countries the level of life satisfaction increased significantly after joining the union, though this change was bigger and faster in Estonia and Poland, smaller and slower in Latvia and Lithuania. In two latter countries had economic recession of 2008 and 2009 a bit bigger influence to life satisfaction than in Estonia.
For conclusion – similarities between Estonia’s, Latvia’s and Lithuania’s development patterns seem to be bigger in social sphere than in economy. In public opinion development there are much more and much bigger differencies between three countries than in economic and social development.
Periodization of transformation time
Andrzej Rychard and Edmund Wnuk-Lipinski (2002: 206-214) are distinguishing the following sequence of phases of transition from the old system to the new:
1. An initial phase, where social processes with ‘transformative power’ are triggered, preconditions and resources of changes are emerging.
2. A mid-systemic phase, where the old system does not function any more and the new one is only starting to emerge.
3. An advanced phase, where the critical mass of changes is achieved, and the old system definitely becomes history.
4. A post-revolutionary phase, characterized by the stabilization of new political and economic relations and decrease of mass political activity.
5. A phase of consolidation, in which the system is socially legitimized and party system consolidated.
The same logic of development can be seen in Estonia’s transformation since 1988, where we have distinguished six periods (Lauristin & Vihalemm 2009).
· 1988-1991: breaking with the old system, the’Singing Revolution’
· 1991-1995: radical reforms, constituting a new political, economic and social order; a time of ‘extraordinary politics’
· 1995-1999: economic stabilization, start of the period of integration with the EU and NATO
· 1999-2004: preparations for EU accession, growing inner tensions (development crisis)
· 2004-2008: new challenges of the post EU accession period, economic growth, growing welfare and satisfaction
· 2008-2010: economic recession, preparations for joining eurozone
How can we periodize Latvia’s and Lithuania’s transformation? Can we distuingish there the similar phases?
References
Lauristin, M. & Vihalemm, P. (2009). The Political Agenda During Different Periods of Estonian Transformation: External and Internal Factors. Journal of Baltic Studies, 40, 1, 1-28.
Milanovic, B. (1998). Income, Inequality, and Poverty during the Transition from Planned to Market Economy. Washington: World Bank.
Rose, R. (1995). New Baltic Barometer II: A Survey Study. Studies in Public Policy, 251. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
Rose, R. (1997a). How Patient Are People in Post-Communist Societies? World Affairs, 159 (3), 130-144.
Rose, R. (1997). New Baltic Barometer III: A Survey Study. Studies in Public Policy, 284. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
Rose, R. (2000). New Baltic Barometer IV: A Survey Study. Studies in Public Policy Number 338, Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
Rose, R. (2002). New Baltic Barometer V: A Pre-Enlargement Survey. Studies in Public Policy, Number 368, Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
Rose, R. (2005). New Baltic Barometer VI: A Post-Enlargement Study. Studies in Public Policy, Number 401, Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
Rose, R. and Maley, W. (1994). Nationalities in the Baltic States: A Survey Study. Studies in Public Policy, 222. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
Rychard, A. & Wnuk-Lipinski, E. (2002). Legitimation, Obedience and Beyond: Sources of Political Stability and Instability in Poland. In Adamski, W., Machonin, P. & Zapf, W. (eds). Structural Change and Modernization in Post-Socialist Societies. Hamburg: Krämer.