HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL

POLICY AND RESOURCES CABINET PANEL

FRIDAY 19 MARCH 2010 AT 10.00AM

HCC PERFORMANCE REPORT – QUARTER 3 2009/10

Report of the Director of Resources and Performance

Author:Peter Stanley, Performance Improvement Manager

Tel: 01992 555306

Executive Member: Richard Roberts

  1. Purpose of report:
  2. To provide members with an update on Hertfordshire County Council’s (HCC’s) progress against the Corporate Plan 2009/12 for Quarter 3, 2009/10. It is useful to note that the new, more refined, contract management reporting process is currently being developed and will come into use for the last quarter of 2009/10 reporting. In addition, some key up to date data (January) for Children’s Social Care has been incorporated into Priority 3, to aid discussion.
  1. Recommendation:
  2. The Panel is asked to note progress and to comment on any areas of concern and/or interest.
  1. Update on Actions from Policy & Resources cabinet panel, Quarter 2.

Action:
In response to a question from a Member, officers would circulate data on school and education progress measures.
Quarter 3 update
A briefing paper on school and education progress measures has been circulated electronically to members.
Action:
In response to a question from a Member, officers would supply data for the Broxbourne area on National Indicator 32 ‘Repeat Incidents of Domestic Violence’
Quarter 3 update
This has been circulated electronically to members.
  1. Revenue and Capital Budget Monitor 2009/10

4.1Revenue Budget

The monitoring position at the end of December 2009 shows a revenue underspend of £927k against the latest approved budget of £688.024 million, this compares with an overspend of £5.044 million (0.7%) reported last quarter.

An analysis of variations in the forecast revenue outturn is listed below and more detail on the council’s most high risk/volatile budgets are included under the relevant priority section.

Action plans are in place within each department to reduce the level of overspend by year-end so that, ideally, the outturn is within budget.

Overspends / Planned
Under-
Spends / Unplanned Under-spends / Net Variances
£`000 / £`000 / £`000 / £`000
ChildrenSchools and Families / 8,764 / (2,627) / 0 / 6,137
Adult Care Services / 2,780 / (550) / (652) / 1,578
Environment and Commercial Services / 1,200 / (850) / (2,305) / (1,955)
Fire & Rescue / 100 / 100
Strategy and Partnership Directorate / (32) / (233) / (265)
Resources and Performance / 3,457 / (1,923) / 1,534
Sub Total / 16,301 / (4,059) / (5,113) / 7,129
Precepts / 5 / 5
Capital Financing & Interest on Balances / (4,677) / (4,677)
Review of Balance Sheet / (2,686) / (2,686)
Central Items / (698) / (698)
Totals at 31/12/2009 / 16,306 / (11,422) / (5,811) / (927)

6.2Efficiencies

The latest (December) forecast of cashable efficiency savings for 2009/10 is set out in the table below.

These comprise:

a)Value for Money efficiency savings included in the 2009/10 budget

b)Savings included which meet the Value for Money NI179 criteria but do not impact the budget (e.g. reduced unit costs)

c)Other savings included in the 2009/10 budget which do not meet the Value for Money criteria.

Planned
£’000 / Latest Forecast
£’000 / Difference
£’000
Adult Care Services / 9,526 / 8,188 / (1,338)
Crime and Drug Strategy / 500 / 500 / -
Fire and Rescue / 50 / 50 / -
Children, Schools and Families / 4,169 / 4,858 / 689
Environment / 2,802 / 3,452 / 650
Commercial Services / 56 / 806 / 750
Resources and Performance / 150 / 150 / -
Strategy and Partnerships / 186 / 159 / (27)
Countywide Savings / - / 1,450 / 1,450
Total / 17,439 / 19,613 / 2,174

The main movements since September are:

Adult Care Services

  • The Extra Care sheltered housing saving of £400,000 will not be achieved because of a delay in the start of new flexi-care projects. A number of new schemes are due in 2010/11which will help to meet the target over a longer period.
  • The planned saving of £210,000 relating to the Supporting People general grant has not been achieved as it has been necessary to settle a number of back-dated claims for payment.
  • A saving of £500,000 relating to increased charges for Non-Residential services has not been achieved. The economic downturn has resulted in service users having less savings, which means that they have a reduced ability to pay.
  • A saving of £300,000 relating to additional income will not be achieved.

Children, Schools and Families

  • £280,000 of efficiencies are predicted in the area of Independent Fostering Placements.
  • An efficiency of £200,000 for Child & Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) is now not expected until 2010/11.

NI 179

The current projected “Value for Money savings” for 2009/10 are £16.714 million. This represents a shortfall of £4.179 million against the government’s cumulative Value for Money target.

The main movements in Value for Money Savings since the September (Q2) report are:

Adult Care Services

  • The Extra Care sheltered housing saving of £400,000 will not be achieved (see above)
  • The planned saving of £210,000 relating to the Supporting People general grant has not been achieved (see above)

Children, Schools and Families

  • £322,00 saving relating to Independent Placements, identified in the September report, will not now be achieved as the unit costs of placements have increased

4.2Capital Budget

Expenditure for the Capital Budget is estimated to be £52.037 million below the latest budget at outturn, as shown in the table below, compared to £39.936 million reported last quarter.

Service / LAB / Forecast Outturn / Forecast Variance
£'000 / £'000 / £'000
Education & Children's Services / 125,895 / 89,326 / (36,569)
Libraries, Culture and Learning / 6,247 / 4,234 / (2,013)
Adult Care / 11,714 / 6,840 / (4,874)
Environment & Transport / 66,241 / 58,380 / (7,861)
Fire & Rescue Service / 1,301 / 1,685 / 384
Resources & Performance / 60,644 / 59,540 / (1,104)
Trading Standards & Registration / 132 / 132 / 0
Projected Capex on Disposals / 3,800 / 3,800 / 0
Total / 275,974 / 223,937 / (52,037)
  1. Overview of Risks

There are currently 39 risks on the corporate register, of which 23 are red. Compared to 45 Risks of which 25 were red in Q2. Eleven red risks are currently rated 40 or above in terms of their impact and probability as follows:

  • ENV0032 – East of England Plan and RSS Review (priority 1)
  • HFRS0007 – unplanned terrorist or flooding incidents (priority 1)
  • CSHF0008 – failure to recover losses from Icelandic banks (priority 1)
  • SP0001 (Formerly CSSPG0001) – suppliers going out of business (priority 1)
  • CSF0061 – safeguarding pressures affecting inspections (priority 7)
  • CSHF0002 – Economic conditions leading to poor performance of LG pension fund (priority 7) – escalated from a service to corporate risk.
  • HFRS0004 – Fire service national training requirements (priority 7)
  • HP0014 – Health & Safety risks identified but not actioned (priority 7)
  • ICT0008 – loss / disclosure of personal data (priority 7)
  • HFRS0011 – service delivery is aligned to needs & priorities (priority 7)
  • HC0010 – non-renewal of government funding for school meals (priority 7)

.

  1. PRIORITY 1: SUPPORT ECONOMIC WELLBEING

6.1Performance Indicators and Hertfordshire Economic Information

  • The figures for the year to June 2009, are now available for the overall working age employment rate (NI 151). Although there has been a drop from 79% (March 2009) to 77.8% (June 2009), this is still above the target of 75.6%, and the rate continues to be no worse than that of the best performing region in the UK.
  • The latest figures for all other indicators are still those to March 2009. The economic downturn is just beginning to show in the figures and it is expected the next figures will continue to deteriorate accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate. The Hertfordshire Works partnership is putting £800,000 into funding 365 new apprenticeships for 16-19 year olds over the next year.
  • The 2008 figures for new business registrations, a rate of 78.1%, was slightly below the excellent performance seen in 2007 of 81.6%. This rate is still considerably above the target of 68.8% and the UK average of 54.2%.

Jobcentre vacancies

  • In December there was a significant reduction to 3,121 Jobcentre Plus live unfilled vacancies in Hertfordshire compared to 4,215 in November and 3,608 in September 2009 and compared to 6,950 in November 2008.

Claimant count

  • The claimant count for Hertfordshire was 18,916 in December (a fall of 285 from November and 649 from October), 2.8% of the working age population, the lowest since March 2009.
  • The claimant count in Stevenage has fallen from the September figure of 4.2% to equal the latest UK figure of 4.1%.
  • However, Hertsmere has bucked the trend for the second month running and its claimant count stands at the highest level since October 1996.
  • Off-flow (people stopping claiming) decreased sharply in December to 4,437(lowest level since May 2009) from 5,227 in September.

Redundancies

  • Jobcentre Plus’ overview of redundancy trends shows a total of 215 jobs being made redundant during January, 82 less than the previous month. Potential job losses of 506 through to August 2010 have been notified.

Housing

  • Hertfordshire house prices have increased for seven months running, rising by 1.2% in November, and 5.1% higher on the year. The average dwelling price was £294,445 in October.
  • Key Departmental Projects

Emerging Economic Strategy. Status - Green

  • The draft Economic Strategy was formally launched at Herts Forward conference in November, with a largely positive reception.
  • Formal consultation on the Economic Strategy, which was launched in November, has commenced
  • The adoption of the strategy by the Hertfordshire Works Board is expected in March 2010

Economic Participation Programme. Status - Green

  • 4 contracts awarded totalling £2,134,202
  • Herts Community Foundation – Routes to work
  • Federation of Colleges – Skills aid
  • NorthHertsCollege – Expansion of construction & engineering
  • Bio Park Ltd – Business Incubation Solutions Centre
  • Project is on track for full spend / investment

Apprenticeship Programme. Status - Green

  • This new project, first reported in the last quarter, has established 120 new apprenticeship places, 55 above the figure anticipated.More work will be needed to build on this progress, as Hertfordshire’s low rate of NEET, and high school staying rate means that we have comparatively low levels of apprenticeships in the county. The County Council itself is aiming to increase the number of apprenticeships offered as one of the County’s largest employers.
  • Overall 16-18 Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) rate is now the lowest in England.

6.3Risk Monitor

  • There are five risks related to this priority of which four are still Red.
  • ENV0032 - The East of England Plan and RSS Review
  • CSHF0008 - Failure to recover losses from Icelandic Banks
  • HFRS0007 - Incidents of the nature of terrorist activity or wide area flooding are unplanned and often pan-regional events and HFRS are reliant on regional resources to manage them
  • SP0001 (suppliers going out of business ) was formerly CSSPG0001
  1. PRIORITY 2: MAXIMISE INDEPENDENT LIVING

7.1Performance Indicators

  • The proportion of adults participating in sport and active recreation as measured through the annual Active People Survey, (results available in December), was 21.67% compared to 22.3% in 2007/08. However, this change is not seen as statistically significant. It is very unlikely that the challenging target of 23.3% will be met, but a number of grant applications have been submitted to secure additional funding. In addition, ACS have contributed £200k towards an intergenerational project, with young people supporting people aged 50+ to get involved in physical activity, which is expected to contribute towards the target.
  • The percentage of people receiving a care review in year (PAF D40) has risen from 83.5% to 86.1%, just below the Q1 level. Performance still exceeds the annual target of 80%.
  • The proportion of older people admitted into permanent residential or nursing care (PAF C73) has improved from 87.8 to 84.7 per 10,000 population. Performance is still higher (and therefore worse) than the target of 80 per 10,000 population , revised targets have now been set for Area managers with monthly monitoring
  • Older people achieving independence through rehabilitation and intermediate care (NI 125) is down to 81.9% compared to 83.2% in Q2 and 85.4% in Q1. However, this drop was expected following further refinement of the data. Q3 has been affected by swine flu and norovirus resulting in bed closures. Increasingly challenging targets are now being negotiatedwith the PCTs’ main provider to ensure further improvements.
  • Social care clients receiving self directed support (NI 130) has increased from 14.5% in Q2 to 26.6% in Q3, in part due to improvements in the data capture system IRIS and improved business processes. The target for 2009/10 of 30% is now expected to be achieved. It is estimated that close to 7,700 clients and carers have received some form of individual budget during the year.
  • Carers receiving a needs assessment or review and a service, advice or information (based on NI 135) has fallen slightly again from 24.7% in Q2 to 24.0% in Q3, against the target of 25%. There was a surge in Herts Partnership Foundation Trust (HPFT) carers’ assessments reporting – 441 in Q3 compared to 177 in Q2. A number of actions are ongoing including discussions with Warwickshire (another Department of Health pilot) on developing a Bed Bureau in partnership.
  • The latest data available for NI 141, the percentage of vulnerable people achieving independent living, is for Q2. Performance decreased slightly from 73.54% in Q1 2009/10 to 73.16% in Q2, still above the target for 2009/10 of 68%. Services reported slightly fewer moves (462 compared to 500) but the proportion of those planned was maintained.
  • Adults with learning disabilities in settled accommodation (NI 145) has increased this quarter from 50% to 54.4% (slightly higher than in Q1).
  • Adults with learning disabilities in employment (NI 146) shows an increase from 2.3% in Q1 and Q2 to 2.8% in Q3. Currently there is no guidance from government as to what constitutes good or bad performance for either of these indicators.
  • Vacancies for adult’s social workers rose this quarter from 15.1 in September to 17.1 in December. Recruitment campaigns for qualified social workers continue.

7.2Key Departmental Projects

Accommodation Strategy for Older People – status: Amber

  • Contract negotiations with Quantum Care were concluded and contract signed in December 2009.
  • Excellent partnership working was evidenced following a fire at Wormley Court Flexicare housing scheme.

Individual Budgets – Self Directed Support Programme – status: Green

  • The addition of 632 carers direct payments and one off payments (as per other counties) has increased the figures.

Health and Wellbeing Programme – status: Green

  • Procured the intergenerational physical activity project for young people 16-25 and for older people aged 50+
  • Nominated for a PCT award in the category Improving Health and wellbeing (individual). The results will be known in March 2010.

7.3Inspections

ACS Safeguarding and Personalisation – status: Green

  • The inspection action plan is now closed with Care Quality Commission (CQC)

7.4High Risk Budget Monitor

The following high risk budgets are related to this priority:

  • Net purchasing budget for older people - £1.580m or 1.7% overspend; (£1.380m overspend in Q2)
  • Net purchasing budget for people with a learning disability – £50,000 or 0.1% overspend (nil variance in Q2);
  • In-house Supported Living Units - £250,000 or 1.4% underspend (not reported in q2)
  • Net purchasing budget for people with a physical disability - £700,000 or 2.9% overspend (£970,000 overspend in Q2);
  • Elderly and physical disability area staffing budgets - £250,000 or 0.9% unplanned underspend (nil variance in Q2);
  • Non-residential charging (income) - £450,000 or 4.5% overspend (£350,000 overspend in Q2

7.5Major Contracts

Quantum Care – status: Green

  • A new 15 year contract and property agreement was signed in December 2009.
  • Risk Monitor
  • There are now two risks relating to this priority, both areRed
  • ACS0019 – death or severe abuse of a client;
  • ACSC0001 – harm to service users or clients
  • ACS0027 – overspend due to increased demand, has been changed to a Service risk and removed from the Corporate register.
  1. PRIORITY 3: ENSURE A POSITIVE CHILDHOOD

8.1Performance Indicators

Contextual data

HCC figures / 2007/08 / 2008/09 / 2009/10 3rd Quarter / Jan 2010
No. of children’s social care referrals per 10,000 pop / 312.2 / 510 / 548.4 / 533.4
No. of initial assessments per 10,000 pop / 191.6 / 326 / 324.2 / 322
No. of children subject to a child protection plan / 443 / 587 / 648 / 663
No. of children subject to initial child protection conference (Year to date average) / 55.7 / 56.6 / 61.9 / 62.1
No. of Children Looked After / 960 / 994 / 1161 / 1161

January data available:

  • Vacancies for children’s social workers have increased again this quarter from 47.1 in September 2009 to 60.36 in January 2010. 6.8 qualified social workers are due to join between January and March 2010, with the Canadian campaign providing a further 11 qualified social workers by the summer.
  • Initial assessments carried out within seven days (NI 59) has fluctuated and now fallen significantly since the figure for September (63.3%) to 49.3% for December, though has seen a strong rise to a monthly figure of 57.7% in January 2010. The year to date figure of 65.5% in Q3 has fallen from 68.6% in Q2 and the service recognises it will not now meet the target of 82% by March 2010, despite now seeing this figure somewhat levelling off at 64.8% in January. The continuing clear out of old cases, some from 2008, and lack of staff availability in December has affected performance. From September 2009, new thresholds were put in place and support to strengthen the development of multi-agency early intervention has been put in place. Teams have worked hard to clear the backlogs of unallocated and allocated work. This work is ongoing but affects both Initial and Core Assessments completed to timescales when old assessments are closed down. An additional assessment team has been funded to provide extra capacity but due to the difficulties in filling the posts with additional staff, the team is not yet fully operational so pressures on staff continue to delay completion in a timely manner.
  • Core assessments (CAs) carried out within 35 days (NI 60) has risen slightly from a monthly figure of 50.8% in September to 53.4% in December, but has risen significantly to 63.5% in January 2010, again still well below our comparator average of 78%, and target of 82%. The year to date figure had dropped from 62.9% in Q2 to 60.7% in Q3, but rose to 61% by January. This is in the context of a continuing clear up of old cases and reduced staff availability. Action taken in October to clarify instructions has reduced the numbers of unnecessary assessments. However, as stated for Initial Assessments above, the target is not now expected to be met. This will be the subject of continuing management focus, and a scrutiny panel is to consider these issues in the first quarter of 2010.
  • The service continues to take appropriate action to ensure all Child Protection cases are allocated, in spite of vacancies and workload pressures. Caseloads are monitored weekly by the Director and senior management. In November, exceptionally, two siblings were unallocated for a short period, their case being held on duty. In addition, three cases were incorrectly shown as unallocated for a period in January due to system and process issues. All three have now been correctly allocated on ICS. The rise in the numbers of children subject to a child protection plan should be noted, from 587 in 2008/09 to 648 by December 2009 and 663 in January 2010.
  • Children Looked After (CLA) allocated to a named qualified social worker increased to the end of this quarter from 97.8% to 99.4% (and 99.1% in January 2010), above the target of 97%. This is particularly good performance as the increase in CLA numbers(1,161 by December 2009 compared to 994 in 2008/09) becoming accommodated puts further pressure on teams. There are risks that performance may decline in the future.
  • The rolling year average of CLA cases which were reviewed within timescale (NI 66) fell slightly this quarter from 94.3% to 93.5%, though still above the 07/08 comparator average of 91%. In January 2010, the figure rose sharply to 96.6%, almost at the target level of 97% and higher than at any time in the last 12 months. The number of late first reviews continues to have a detrimental impact on the rolling year figure. 15% of first reviews were late in the last quarter. Further work, including the ongoing reconciliation between the Independent Review Team (IRT) and Integrated Children System (ICS) databases, is being undertaken to improve this situation, and an effect is seen in the January data.
  • The previously recorded decline in CLA who participated in their review stabilised this quarter, decreasing only slightly from 94.9% in September to 94.2% in December, and then improving again to 95.8% in January 2010. Only 2 young people failed to contribute to their review in October, both being reported as missing from care.

Data to December: