Searching for Solutions that Stick:
U.S. Media Attention on Climate Change 2007 – 2011
by
Katya Chistik Hantel
Dr. Elizabeth Shapiro, Advisor
FINAL PROPOSAL, September 2011
Masters project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Environmental Management degree in the Nicholas School of the Environment of
Duke University
2012
Advisor's signature
1) Introduction
Language, and the ideas it represents, falls in and out of fashion. “Buzzwords” that engage and inspire when they first appear lose potency over time as they become “overused.” A 2010 Accountemps national poll asked 150 senior executives with the nation’s 1,000 largest companies: “what is the most annoying or overused phrase or buzzword in the workplace today?”Their responses included: synergy, paradigm, win-win, value-added and alignment (Accountemps, 2010) - all terms that at one point drove strategy and sparked enthusiasm for changes in business behavior.
In the environmental arena, “framing,” or placing issue within a specific context to achieve a desired interpretation, affects the way climate change communications are perceived (Decisions, 2009). My MP will explore the presence of two climate change frames in the U.S. media, studying them through the lens of the issue-attention cycle, to determine the viability of these frames as ways to capture and sustain media interest.
Communications and Public Attention
Research from the 1970s examining public attention on issues in the U.S. suggests the existence of a cycle of attention that is systematic and persistent, coined the “issue-attention cycle” (Downs, 1972). This cycle influences public attitudes and behavior concerning public issues in the U.S. Downs found that issues tend to emerge quickly into the public eye, focus our attention for a short time and gradually fade away, with or without being resolved. His research ultimately identified five distinct phases:
Stage / Description / Identifying Characteristics1 - Pre-Problem / A problem exists but has yet to receive public attention. / For individuals aware of the problem, the reality is worse than their perception. Expert groups may be alarmed.
2 - Alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm / Catalyst suddenly draws public awareness to the negative effects of the problem. Public enthusiasm for solving the problem quickly. / Political powers claim the problem can be solved without intense disruption. Often technological solutions are assumed and called for.
3 - Realizing the cost of significant progress / A gradual public realization that the cost of solving the problem is high. / Tension between groups as the public recognizes that a solution will have negative effects on a group or require sacrifices.
4 - Gradual decline of intense public interest / Three public reactions manifest: discouragement, avoidance, and boredom. / Most people experience some combination of the three reactions. By this time in the cycle, another public problem usually is gaining attention (Stage 2), further drawing attention away in Stage 4.
5 - Post-problem / Problem moves into a realm of lesser public attention or brief recurrences of interest. / Entities created to address the problem in earlier stages almost always persist and it is possible to still achieve success through their efforts.
Downs maintains that problems likely to run through the cycle have three characteristics:
1. The problem affects a numerical minority in the U.S., in terms of percentage of the total population.
2. The negative effects of the problem upon this minority are caused by elements that actually have some benefit to a majority or powerful minority of the U.S. population.
3. Sensational events that helped to draw intense public focus to the problem initially (e.g. severe weather event) have died down over time.
The idea that media coverage follows Anthony Downs' Issue-Attention Cycle is not new (Nisbet & Huge, 2006), (McDonald, 2009). In terms of media attention on climate change, based on a study of network evening news coverage of "global warming" over several years, Robert
Brulle suggested that An Inconvenient Truth caused U.S. media issue attention cycle to peak January 2007 (Revkin, 2010). The New York Times also noted in a May 2006 review of An Inconvenient Truth, that there seemed to be a "tipping point" approaching in terms of public attention on climate change (Kakutani, 2006).
I will measure the "life cycle" of specific climate change "frames" over time, using Entman's definition that in the media, "[t]o frame is to select some aspects of a perceived reality and make them more salient in a communicating text, in such a way as to promote a particular problem definition" (Entman, 1993). Specifically, I will take Entman's idea as presented by Trumbo (Trumbo, 1996) that one type of media frame is the "promotion of a solution."
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2) Objective
Question - What has the pattern of media coverage been for the following two climate change solution frames in terms of Downs’ issue-attention cycle from the time period January 2007 – September 2011? I will approach this question by studying two elements:
· Frequency of frame media coverage
· Interaction of events and frames.
I propose to measure two specific "solutions" climate change frames in the media over time, measuring to see if it has its own distinct issue-attention cycle:
1) Development of carbon market solutions, including placing a price on carbon dioxide and developing cap-and-trade schemes.
2) Development of technology solutions, possibly including but not limited to: renewable sources of energy (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, clean coal and nuclear), in addition to carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Specific solutions will be refined throughout the course of reviewing media coverage on climate change during my target time frame.
The solutions I will study include frames Gore himself has pushed in the past few years, and thus exist as part of climate change media coverage during this time period.
3) Methods
Methodology – Track the frequency of a particular frame’s use over time and determine if there is a noticeable issue-attention cycle, flowing from introduction of the phrase, to widespread use and then decline.
Mixed Methods Research, Sequential Study - Research will begin with quantitative work: an analysis of the number of times a frame is used in key U.S. newspapers and wire services (pieces appearing in print coverage). Several climate change-related U.S. media studies have focused on seven or fewer newspaper outlets (Boykoff & Boykoff, 2007), (Rick, Boykoff, & Pielke, 2011), and Boykoff argues that major newspapers set the coverage agenda for the rest of the U.S. media. To this end, my study will review the following print outlets: The New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, as well as the Associated Press, Bloomberg and Reuters wire services.
I will use a coding methodology for measuring the presence of frame and prominence based on previous scholarship examining biotech media coverage over time, which coded each frame as not present = 0, present = 1, or outstanding focus/appearing in the lead =2 (Nisbet & Huge, 2006). For my purposes, "lead" would be headline or sub-head.
Other climate change media coverage studies similar in scope (Boykoff, 2007, 2008) and (Wilkins, 1993) examine sample sizes varying from 974 articles for a six year period to 1441 articles for a three-year period. I propose reviewing 1,000 media articles containing one or both of my target frames publishing over a five-year period, and assign the following codes:
· Articles about climate change would receive a “1” score if they include a frame, a “0” score if they do not
· The article would receive a “2” score if the frame is “highly prominent” – meaning, it is described in the headline, subhead or first paragraph of the article
In order to finalize the number of total articles to be coded, I will do a brief keyword search across different publications, to see the overall incidence of the frames. Expected result from this overview search is that instances of these frames increase over time, with 1,000 being a sufficient sample size for this type of project (Hamilton, 2011). I will also refer to Daniel Riffe’s Analyzing Media Messages: Using Quantitative Content Analysis in Researchfor additional guidance on media coding throughout my MP.
Each article would also be coded for tone, either “positive,” “negative,” or “neutral.” Specific keywords used to define the tone will be identified at the beginning of the coding process.
For all articles that contain a frame, I would also run an analysis using NVivo, Lexis or Factiva to see what other key words are commonly included in the articles that contain the frame. Examples include groups or individuals, major events in the policy area (e.g., international meetings, debates in Congress) or major reports/findings. If a keyword appears a significant amount of times (e.g. “Waxman-Markey bill” in the market solutions frame) it would be flagged as a possible frame driver through the issue attention cycle, which would be finalized by answering the following question: does the frequency of media coverage increase or decrease significantly after the introduction of this keyword? If yes, this is evidence of a frame driver for the purposes of my MP.
Once frame drivers are identified, they will be qualitatively examined to determine how they are affecting the movement through the issue-attention cycle by examining the following questions:
1. How is the solution frame being described? For example, coverage of the Waxman-Markey bill as being a bad or good market solution.
2. What will this solution do and whom it will affect?
3. Who is supporting or opposing this solution?
4. What events or individuals are included in/affecting this frame?
5. What are stage in the issue-attention cycle does this driver move the frame to? For example, positive media coverage of a breakthrough in photovoltaic technology may increase media coverage of the climate change technology frame and help drive the media into Phase 2 of the issue attention cycle, characterized by euphoric enthusiasm.
6. Does this tone change over time? If so, the driver needs further examination, because it may be being influenced by other elements (e.g. a UN Climate Change report may be a driver for increased media attention, but subsequent reports refuting the science within that report change the tone of the coverage).
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Project Timeline
Task / Completion Date / Submission To / StatusProject Prospectus / February 1, 2011 / Sherri Nevius / Complete
Advisor Assignment / March 04, 2011 / Liz Shapiro / Complete
Draft / April 6, 2011 / Liz Shapiro; cc: Sherri Nevius / Complete
Project proposal approved by advisor / April 29, 2011 / N/A / Complete
Final / September 30, 2011 / Liz Shapiro, cc: Sherri Nevius / Submitted
Complete IRB Exemption Form / Within 7 days after completion of Final MP Project Proposal / Liz Shapiro, cc: Sherri Nevius / N/A
Setup NVivo account and code articles – 0-150 / October 10, 2011 / N/A
MP Written Draft: Introduction (includes literature review) / October 17, 2011 / N/A
Code articles – 150 – 350 / October 20, 2011 / N/A
MP Written Draft: Materials and methods / November 1, 2011 / N/A
Code articles – 350 – 550 / November 7, 2011 / N/A
Code articles – 550 – 750 / November 14, 2011 / N/A
Code articles – 750 – 1,000 / November 21, 2011 / N/A
MP Written Draft: Results/observations / November 30, 2011 / N/A
Draft Project Presentation practice - Guidelines to be provided / Tuesday, November 29, or Wednesday, November 30,
2-3 PM EST (give presentation during office hours via Skype) / Liz Shapiro
Project Presentation electronic files / December 1 (TBC), 1:00 PM ET / DEL Office
Project Presentation / December 8-13, 2011 - TBD
Presentation due to DEL Office 1 week prior to due date, 1:00 PM ET. / DEL Office
MP Written Draft: Discussion/Conclusion / January 31, 2012 / N/A
Complete MP Written Draft / Feb. 27, 2012 / Liz Shapiro, cc: Sherri Nevius
Revised MP Written Draft / March 19, 2012 / Liz Shapiro, cc: Sherri Nevius
MP Presentation Practice / March 15, 2012 / Erin Noble and Jennifer King
Final electronic presentation due to DEL Office / April 6, 2012, 1:00 PM ET / Lisa Strebler, DEL Office
Virtual MP Presentation / April 11-12, 2012 / Lisa Strebler, DEL Office
Face-to-face Presentation due to DEL Office / May 4, 2012, 1:00 PM ET / Lisa Strebler, DEL Office
Final face-to-face MP presentation / May 11, 2012 / Lisa Strebler, DEL Office
Final Written Paper with Abstract – Upload final MP electronically to DukeSpace and submit hard copy of advisor signed cover page/abstract. / April 27, 2012 by 5:00 PM ET - Separate abstract submittal must be signed by advisor(s). / Online submission, DEL Office and Liz Shapiro
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Expected Results
Ultimately, I hope to be able to identify where in the issue attention cycle the U.S. media is in relation to these two broad frames. I expect to find that these frames are made up of distinct sub-frames, e.g. geo-engineering (Hamilton, 2011), characterized by specific market solutions and technologies. These sub-frames will be identified and mapped against the issue-attention cycle.
I also expect to find that many drivers influence media attention on these climate change frames within the time period, and that within each driver, smaller, perhaps complete issue attention cycles take place.