SDI 2010Crowe-Schirmer-Hammond
2AC Blocks- Wave Two
CHS 2AC Blocks- Wave 2
CHS 2AC Blocks- Wave 2
=====Aff Section=====
Topicality Substantial - 50% 2AC
Guam Shift 2AC (1/2)
Guam Shift 2AC (2/2)
---1AR --- No Link
---1AR---- Big Impact Cal
---A2: Genocide = Bad 4 the Biznak
---A2: Guam bad for the alliance
---A2: Guam Shift does shit to the environment
---Non-Unique
---No Link
---Guam Supports US presence
---Guam Shift Good-Hawaii
China DA 2AC
---AT Okinawa key
----Containment Fails
2AC Deterrence DA (1/2)
2AC Deterrence DA (2/2)
2AC Japan Object CP
Consult CP Notes
2AC Consult NATO (1/2)
2AC Consult NATO (2/2)
----Ext. Hege Turn
Framework 2AC
Hillman 2AC (1/3)
Hillman 2AC (2/3)
Hillman 2AC (3/3)
----Should Avoid Losing Wars
----Wargaming Framework
----Ext: Wargaming Framing
----Realism Inevitable
----War Isn’t Natural
Security K 2AC (1/3)
Security K 2AC (2/3)
Security K 2AC (3/3)
Realism 2AC (1/2)
Realism 2AC (2/2)
2AC Troop Withdrawal Good – Alliance Advantage (1/2)
2AC Troop Withdrawal Good – Alliance Advantage (2/2)
----Ext. US Troops = Instability
=====Politics Links- Bidirectional=====
Afghan Withdrawal- Popular
Afghan Withdrawal Unpopular
South Korea Withdrawal Popular
Japan Withdrawal Popular
=====Aff Section=====
Topicality Substantial - 50% 2AC
A. Counter - Interpretation – a substantial reduction is 25% - military regulations prove.
Major Steven N. Tomanelli et al, has served as a Judge Advocate in the United States Air Force, Chief of Acquisition and Fiscal Law for the Air Force s Air Mobility Command, and Senior DoD Counsel for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), Army Lawyer, February 1994, Lexis Academic
1. Regulatory Changes--Notification Requirements for Termination or Reduction of Defense Programs.--The DOD has issued an interim rule requiring military departments and defense agencies to notify contractors of a potential termination of, or substantial reduction in, a defense program. n581 Under the new rule, each military department and defense agency must establish procedures for determining which defense programs are likely to be terminated or substantially reduced as a result of the submission of the President's budget or enactment of an appropriations act. Within thirty days of such submission or enactment, agencies and military departments must notify affected contractors of the proposed termination or reduction. Affected contractors are those with a contract of $ 500,000 or more under a program identified as likely to be terminated or reduced by at least twenty-five percent. Within two weeks after receiving notice from the government, contractors must notify, among others, their affected employees and subcontractors of the proposed termination or reduction.
B. Prefer our interpretation-
Fair limits – our interpretation limits out small affs that tinker with missions, but at the same time doesn’t overlimit the topic
Sources – our interpretation cites actual military regulations, the military would know if they had a substantial presence in Japan
Brightline – our interpretation provides a clear distinction between what is and is not topical
C. Lit checks – the affirmative has on case arguments on the plan, so clearly they were prepared for the round
D. Reasonability – competing interpretations create a race to the bottom, we only have to prove that we are reasonably topical
GuamShift 2AC (1/2)
No link-
a) Their Kensei 10 card doesn’t assume a zero-sum redeployment- not all troops from Japan will automatically go to Guam
b) Troops won’t be transferred to Guam- it’s too expensive
Marchesseault, Jeff (anchor for Guam News Watch). 7/6/10. “U.S. Asks Japan to Pay More for the Military Buildup on Guam”. Guam News Watch. . DA: 7/25/10.
Japan will need to pay more for the military buildup on Guam and the Pentagon's reconsidering the mix of troops to be sent here. That's the word from independent news sources in Japan. Kyodo News reports that US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is asking Tokyo to shoulder up to hundreds of millions of dollars more for the transfer of marines from Okinawa to Guam because the U.S. reportedly claims infrastructure costs on Guam are higher than expected. Japanese paper Yomiuri Shimbun reports a new proposal would change the makeup of Marines assigned from Okinawa to Guam. The alternate plan would keep some of the 8,000 members of the third marine expeditionary force on Okinawa, while certain combat troops would be relocated instead.
c) Iraq troop withdrawal frees up more troops than the plan; if bases were fed by constant troop deployment, troops would already be in Guam, triggering the link
Associated Press, staff writer, 8/30/2009 "U.S. military packing up to leave Iraq," da: 7/14
The U.S. military is packing up to leave Iraq in what has been deemed the largest movement of manpower and equipment in modern military history — shipping out more than 1.5 million pieces of equipment from tanks to antennas along with a force the size of a small city. The massive operation already under way a year ahead of the Aug. 31, 2010 deadline to remove all U.S. combat troops from Iraq shows the U.S. military has picked up the pace of a planned exit from Iraq that could cost billions. The goal is to withdraw tens of thousands of troops and about 60 percent of equipment out of Iraq by the end of next March, Brig. Gen. Heidi Brown, a deputy commander charged with overseeing the withdrawal, told The Associated Press in one of the first detailed accounts of how the U.S. military plans to leave Iraq.
Nowhere do they prove that they access physical genocide of the caliber their Card ‘3 card talks about. Their worst impact is “cultural genocide”, meaning at worst, troops may infringe upon Chamorro culture.
Doublebind-US troops have been in Guam for 66 year. That means that either
a) troops currently in Guam practice cultural genocide and the DA is non-unique, or
b) there’s no brink to how many troops must be present to access the impact, which minimized their probability and the risk of a link
Non-Unique: Cross- apply Gersen 10 from the 1AC- Japan withdrawal is inevitable
No impact-No cultural genocide- Guamanians affirm their liberty regardless of US military presence
Partido, Jerry (staff writer at Variety News. 7/23/10. “A different liberation”. Marianas Variety: Guam. . DA:7/25/10.
But liberation doesn't have to be always considered in the context of a separation with the U.S. Guam can achieve its own kind of liberation, even under the current relationship with the U.S. We can start by diversifying our economy and making it less dependent on the feds. Our location is not just strategic militarily, it offers commercial opportunities as well andGuamcan serve as a commercial bridge between east and west. If we can successfully diversify our economy, we can show the world that we are not just dependent on federal dollars. In this sense we can be “liberated” to a degree from the U.S.We can hold our head high and answer back to any snotty mainlander who says Guam can't live without federal dollars. A more dynamic economy would also mean more jobs and opportunities on island so that people no longer have to relocate to the mainland or join the military just to provide a decent living for their families. In this sense, more residents would become economically liberated with more options to choose from. To achieve this, our leaders must spearhead a major overhaul of our education system to ensure that future generations would have the training to handle any new industries that Guam develops. Improving education will result in a highly trained workforce, which would ensure that Guam would be less dependent on foreign labor and that the island will have the human capital to sustain a highly diversified economy. More importantly, education itself is a tool of liberation. Through education, Guam can achieve a different kind of liberation – a liberation of the mind. Liberation is a state of mind and by inculcating the island's unique history and status to our children, future generations would be less shackled by Guam's past. Remember, people cannot be fettered if their minds are liberated, aware, and questioning.
Guam Shift 2AC (2/2)
Case outweighs-
a) Timeframe- Japan’s economy and East Asian tensions are on the brink. There is no brink to when cultural genocide leads to extinction and it would take years anyway, while our nuclear war scenarios cause extinction almost immediately
b) Probability- econ collapse historically creates global war, which will be even worse in the nuclear era. North Korea and China are already threatening to act. The US has been in Guam for 66 years with no impact, meaning even if they win the link and impact, we outweigh
c) Magnitude- cultural genocide is historically non-unique. Extinction outweighs because there’s no hope for culture when we’re all dead. We solve for 3 global wars and an extinction scenario- extinction because of global ecosystem failure always outweighs cultural genocide
d) Case turns the DA: if we allow East Asian tensions to rise, Guam will become a war zone. There will be even more troops and possibly even combat there. Global war breeds genocide and kills culture, as does the loss of key species.
---1AR --- No Link
A2 Natividad and Kirk:
this card says nothing about moving resources, but just “shifting military priorities” to the Pacific theater
A2 Schepers:
this card assumes the status quo move to Guam; nothing about free troops going to Guam
A2 Ogawa:
also assumes status quo; if marines stay in Okinawa, they’ll get moved to Guam, if they’re sent home, they won’t be
The rest of this article talks about how even if there will be a shift, it would be less than half the 8,000 marines that the neg assumes- only 1,856 marines would not trigger the impact
Satoshi Ogawa, Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent, 7/3/2010, "U.S. rethinks marine corps' shift to Guam / Wants to keep command unit in Okinawa," da: 7/25/10
The exact size of the combat unit to be relocated to Guam is yet to be determined, but according to an environmental impact assessment report unveiled by the U.S. Navy in November on the construction of a base in Guam, about 1,856 personnel related to the 1st Marine Air Wing Headquarters were to be relocated. The combat unit is likely to have close to the same number of personnel.
A2 Goodman/Kuzar:
cross-apply the AP 9 card- Iraq troop shift would have already triggered the impact
---1AR---- Big ImpactCal
Case outweighs the disad because:
1) timeframe:
a) Japan’s economy is on the brink and US needs more money for econ recovery, even another year spent there will trigger Mead 09
b) South Asian tensions are building as both NK and China build up their nukes, constant risk of a strike causes global nuclear war
c) US has been stationed in Guam since post WWII and cultural genocide has yet to eradicate the population
2) probability:
a) econ collapse has led to fascist regimes and militarist control and global war in the past (i.e. WWII)- with today’s nuclear arsenals and ally system, global nuclear war as a result of extreme econ depression is likely
b) North Korea has been known to exercise their weapons arsenal, any more nuclear testing and East Asia could be “set on fire”- Kim Jong Il is a notable brinksman
c) China already stated that it considers bases and logistics support to Taiwan and surrounding area a threat, and a reason to retaliate (that’s Strait Times 2k)- attack is highly probable if the US continues to overstretch itself in East Asia
d)The probability of even troops flooding into Guam is sketchy and low; even if neg wins a link, cultural genocide not likely because Guam likes US there and not enough troops to trigger the impact
3) magnitude:
a) the decimation of human life outweighs cultural genocide because cultural decay is non-unique; hundreds of cultures have gone extinct due to globalization and modernization and no adverse effects
b) aff solves for a global nuclear war from econ collapse that could destroy the world as we know it
c) aff solves for global nuclear war from war with China that could “destroy civilization”- that’s like thousands of cultural genocides the aff prevents compared to the one that the neg prevents
d) aff solves a nuclear NK war that could encompass East Asia and maybe the rest of the world
e) not only do we solve for destructive global war three times over, but we also solve for extinction- the biggest genocide impact of them all
f) even if there’s a one percent risk that biodiversity in Okinawa and Futenma are key to global ecosystem, extinction due to biodiversity loss is way more important than cultural genocide – and you vote aff on that
1
SDI 2010Crowe-Schirmer-Hammond
2AC Blocks- Wave Two
---A2: Genocide = Bad 4 the Biznak
Turn- US base in Guam presents more job opportunities
Nadkarni 9/13/08[ Dev, journalist for the Pacific Business Online, “US Base in Guam to Drive Region’s Economy”
That address was well timed to coincide with the first major steps in the relocation of the long established US military base on the Japanese island of Okinawa to Guam in the western Pacific. The move is tipped to be one of the largest infrastructure projects the region has ever seen and is expected to cost US$15 billion over the next five years. In the remaining months of this year alone some US$220 million will be spent on preparatory work.Guam is termed an unincorporated US territory and has its own unicameral legislature headed by a governor. It was an obvious choice for the base because it is believed to be the best deepwater port in the region capable of harbouring a wide range of US navy vessels. A new aircraft carrier purpose built for Pacific Ocean duties to be named ‘Guam’ will be based there when ready.Guam is also a regional transportation and commercial hub, employs a US standard telecommunications network, uses US currency and is a major holiday attraction mostly for American and Japanese tourists. The new base will see 55,000 people added to Guam’s population of 170,000 – about 20,000 of these being workers. The US government has exempted Guam from H-visa caps (H-visa relates to employment) upto the year 2014 to facilitate employment processes, opening a flood of work opportunities for people both of the Pacific rim countries and the Pacific islands. Late last year, a delegation of New Zealand businesspeople visited Guam to seek out opportunities. Since then a few New Zealand companies have already begun making headway in working on projects there.The main business opportunities are in the infrastructure sector, especially in the construction of port facilities, roadways, public works and telecommunications. But as the build up progresses, new opportunities are expected to open up in the services sector.
Alt causes: their Campbell 1 card says genocide is bad for the tourism industry- know what else is bad for the tourism industry? Nuclear war in East Asia because of econ collapse or North Korea or China, oil spills, economic downturns, lack of gay marriage, and dictatorships
If tourism is their internal link to the Guamanian economy, then our jobs internal link outweighs on the premise of common sense
---A2: Guam bad for the alliance
We have the key internal link to the Japan-US alliance:
cross-apply 1AC Bandow 10- anti-Americanism in Okinawa chips away at the alliance; washington’s occupation continues to put the pressure on Japan until they force us out, which is way worse for relations than US leaving on their own
Reducing US presence in Japan reduces tension, sustaining the alliance long-term
Bandow ‘8 [Doug, FPIF contributor & former Special Assistant to Reagan, Foreign Policy in Focus Institute, "Bring Them Home...from Asia", September 19, 2008 Accessed: 6-25-10,
Finally, downplaying America's military role would improve overall U.S. relations with other countries. The continuing presence of bases and troops creates endless local grievances. Part of that reflects nationalist frustrations with the foreign control that inevitably accompanies foreign garrisons. There are also the inevitableproblems that come from putting a large number of young American males in the middle of a foreign countryand culture. The U.S. government has a particular image problem with young South Koreans, who tend for instance to view America as a greater threat than North Korea. But anger towards Washington extends well beyond universities; the recent protests against U.S. beef imports were directed at far more than the fear of consuming unsafe food. As a result, President George W. Bush received a less-than-friendly reception when he visited in early August. In Japan, the heavy concentration of U.S. basesin Okinawahas spawned strong opposition to America's presence in that province. Without the presence of U.S. military forces, which emphasize Washington's dominance, the bilateral relationships would be closer to ones of equals, with greater emphasis on private economic and culturalties rather than on government-to-government geopolitical relations.
Their Tanaka/McCormack card provides no warrants as to why Japan hates the Guam shift- Bandow is specific about the reasons Japan wants the US out
US shift to Guam will strengthen the alliance
AFP 7-15-09, [AFP publication, “Japan-Guam troop shift good for US: official” 7/25/10]