VITAL SIGNS PROJECT
SCHEMA21 IN COLLABORATION WITH WORCESTER UNIVERSITY
FOR WORCESTERSHIRE COMMUNITY FOUNDATION
31 August, 2017
TABLE OF CONTENT
1.0INTRODUCTION p. 4
2.0 METHODOLOGY p. 5
SECTION1 p. 7
3.0Introduction p. 7
3.1 Indexes of Deprivation p. 7
3.2Data Analysis p. 8
3.2.1Demographics p. 8
3.2.2 Fairness p. 9
3.2.3Business & Living Environment p. 9
3.2.4Health p.11
3.2.5 Arts, Culture, Heritage p.12
3.3Conclusions p.13
SECTION 2 p 14
4.0Introduction p.14
4.1 Qualitative Findings p.14
4.2Conclusions p.16
5CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS p.18
6APPENDIXES p.20
LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 1 Fairness Main Correlations p. 9
Fig. 2 Demographics p.20
Fig. 3 Fairness p.20
Fig. 4 GVA & Industrial Split p.21
Fig. 5 Unemployment & Rate Claimants p.21
Fig. 6 U25 Unemployment & Rate Claimants p.22
Fig. 7 IMD Employment 2015 p.22
Fig. 8 Education and NEETs p.23
Fig. 9 Health p.23
Fig. 10 Crime p.24
Fig. 11 Living Environment p.24
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this report is to measure the“state of health”of Worcestershire with regard to 6 district council areasacross different dimensions of deprivation with the primary goal of identifying the most deprived areas while exploring the different domains of deprivation.
The district council areas analysed are: Bromsgrove DC, Malvern Hills DC, Redditch BC, Worcester CC, Wychavon DC, and Wyre Forest DC.
The primary dimensions analysed are: Fairness, Gross Value Added (GVA), Unemployment, Education, Health, Sport & Health, Crime, Living Environment, and Arts, Culture, and Heritage. This is in line with previous research according to which to measure a multiple deprivation at the smallarea level is articulated as an accumulation of discrete dimensions or `domains' of deprivation.[1]
The document is divided into four sections. The first seeks to shed the light on the rationales behind the current research and on the methods of collecting and analysing data, a methodology paragraph is drawn on the basis of previous academic research.
SECTION 2 follows including the literature review of secondary data with the aim to give a picture of the state of health of Worcestershire.
Subsequently, SECTION 3 includes main findings from qualitative interviews with key leaders in the areas.
Finally, conclusions and recommendations are drawn on the basis analysis carried out in in the previous sections.
2.0 METHODOLOGY
The current methodology is set in order to effectively address the above mentioned research question: what’s the “state of health” of Worcestershire?
According to experts[2], there are a number of ways to approach the analysis of secondary data and this depends on the nature of the data themselves as well as on the aim of research.
Due to the nature of this study and of its scope of work a mixed method is undertaken. Mixed methods research has recently become a well-established research approach[3]where most researchers define that as a mixture of quantitative and qualitative data.
More in detail[4], quantitative research allows to identify relationships to gain a contextual understanding whilst qualitative research allows going deeper to get to a credible understanding of an issue.
Mixed Methods is a method that philosophically adopts a pragmatic approach based on the view that knowledge is socially constructed, thing which in turn givesresearcher the possibility to uncover new perspectives based on new insights starting from established knowledge[5].
In this respect, the current study relies on the descriptive analysis of high quality published data and well-understood administrative sources as well as on qualitative primary data from ad hoc 3 problem –centred interviews[6] with key stakeholders within the area.
In particular,the analysis of secondary quantitative data was informed by a statistical descriptive approach. The aim of leveraging such an approach is the creation of a summary picture. Moreover, for c communication purposes, the use of charts of graphs (please, see Appendixes), provides a readily accessible format[7].
However, as in the real world the distributions are not normal - which means that there are an equal number above and below the mean – the research adopted the additional use of skewness statistics in order to effectively analyse statistical distributions[8].
With regard to the quantitative data, the list includes statistics from Companies House Service (CHS), Durham University's NOMIS, the Department for Local Communities and Local Government, ONS, Worcestershire Health and Well-Being Board, UK Crime Statistics, from well leading data companies, such as Mobunti, and proprietary and confidential data from West Mercia Police.
On top of this,3 interviews with experts were carried out as to validate findings from the quantitative analysis as well as to enrich that narrative with the final aim of dragging down a final set of recommendations.
Limitations of this research include the impossibility of quantifying how deprived a small area and identifying deprived people or reveal how affluent a small area is and measuring real change in deprivation over time.This is due to the intrinsic characteristics of the indicators used and to availability of consistent datasets.
SECTION 1
3.0 Introduction
The aim of SECTION1 is to define the statistical foundation needed to develop an ad hoc survey to get to the current state of health of Worcestershire.
For the purpose of this exercise, high quality published data and well-understood administrative sources will be used to analyse 6 district councils across different dimensions of deprivation with the primary goal of identifying the most deprived areas while exploring the different domains of deprivation.
The investigateddimensions are: Fairness, GVA, Unemployment, Education, Health, Sport & Health, Crime, Living Environment, and Arts, Culture, and Heritage.
The studyrelies on high quality published data and well-understood administrative sources as well as primary data from an ad hoc survey.
3.1 Indexes of Deprivation
The Office for National Statistics says Index of Deprivation are based on 37 indicators, organized across seven distinct domain of deprivation which are combined, using appropriate weights, to calculate the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).
This is the official measure of relative deprivation of a small area, named LSOA (Lower layer Super Output Area) which in other words can be assimilated to a neighbourhood of approximately 1,500 people. Every area is ranked according to the level of deprivation.
Even though this would not be the only one used for carrying out the current research project, when it comes to the analysis of the levels of deprivation of an area, the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) is the most widely used among indexes of deprivation as it is considered to be one of the most reliable.
Data from Companies House Service (CHS), Durham University's NOMIS, the Department for Local Communities and Local Government, ONS, Worcestershire Health and Well-Being Board, UK Crime Statistics, from well leading data companies, such as Mobunti, and proprietary and confidential data from West Mercia Police.
3.2Data Analysis
3.2.1 Demographics
With an estimated population of 578,600 in 2015 distributed across 6 district councils (Bromsgrove, 94,485; Malvern Hills, 75,911; Redditch, 84,471; Worcester, 100,842; Wychavon, 119,752; Wyre Forest, 98,960), Worcestershire counts for 0.9% of the total population in the UK and for 10% of the West Midlands Region.
Looking at the split of population by age, 2 out of 3 people are aged 16 – 64 (351,600). These data are consistent with the UK (63.3%) and West Midlands (62.3%) levels.
In particular, with regard to the age group trends in the period between 2001 and 2011, it emerged that the cluster aged 45-64 represents the biggest proportion of the population and reports a growing trend over the period considered with an intensity similar to groups aged 65-74 and 75+ which, however, confirmed to be the smallest groups among residents.
By contrast, population aged 25-44, which is the second biggest segment of residents, reported a decrease trend over the period while volumes of the segments aged 0-14 and 15-24 confirmed to be flat.
The analysis of the trends related to the different group ages living in the County shows that average age in the area is increasing which potentially could affect health and living standards and its competitiveness.
3.2.2 Fairness
The County well positions itself within the 56th percentile of the least deprived areas in the UK. This means that the County is halfway in the ranking of the most deprived areas in the UK as the region stillremainingpoorer if compared to other 44% British counties.
Focusing on the correlation between main indicators such as Employment, Education, Health, Crime and Living, it emerged that even though there is a strong correlation between them, the highest correlations have been found inthree pairs of variables:
- Employment and Health (0.9 out of 1)
- Education and Employment (0.83 out of 1) and
- Education and Health (0.8 out of 1).
Fig. 1 Fairness Main Correlations. Elaborated By the Author based on ONS’s IMD 2015 Data
3.2.3. Business & Living Environment
Worcestershire’s GVA shows a positive trend over the period between 1997 and 2015. This means that the value of the economy of the area increased thanks to the increase of production of goods and services.
One of the factorswgich could be said to drive this is the richness of the business environment which includes basically every industrial sector withthe predominant ones:Services (24%) - including Professional Services (16%) and Business Support Services (8%) - and Constructions (12%).
With regard to the area specifications, Wychavon and Worcester lead the group reporting respectively a GVA of £2,558 million the former and £2,544 the latter with Malvern Hills being the leastproductive area with a GVA of £1,436 million.
In analysing the rationales behind this, the Author found a correlation between the proximity to the main road networks and the levels of GVA. This is the case, for instance, of Wychavon as companies based there are likely to leverage the logistical proximity to the main infrastructures of the area.
Morebroadly,with regard to the competitiveness of the entrepreneurial environment, Worcestershire still stands as one of the most entrepreneurial areas of the Country. In fact, according to the most recent data (2 June 2017 - 2 July 2017), 360 new businesses were created in Bromsgrove, which has been named the most entrepreneurial hub outside London, while 135 in the rest of Worcestershire including 61 in Worcester and 42 in Redditch.
The impact of this on unemployment figures is positive as the job density in 2016 got to a value of 0.78 compared to 0.83 in the UK. This measure indicates the ratio between population and job density where 1 means 1 job for each and every person.
Unemployment figures also show that Worcestershire reports a lower percentage of unemployed people (3.5%) if compared to West Midlands (5.5%) and Great Britain (4.8%) with a claimant rate of 1.3% in the age group 16-64 well below the regional (2.5%) and national (1.9%) levels. However, looking at the district councils, Redditch reports the highest proportion of claimants (1.8%) while Wyre Forest the biggest growing trend in demand (0.2%).
Zooming at the U25 level, after reaching a peak in September 2009, the Worcestershire 18-24 claimant rate has followed a downward trend, and is now below pre-recession and reported no variation over past twelve months in line with the West Midlands and the UK.
Regarding the geographical split, Redditch is the area reporting a higher density of U25 claimants (3.2%) while Bromsgrove the biggest growing trend in this respect (0.4%).
With regard to the IMD 2015 data it can be argued in three areas, Malvern Hills, Wychavon, and Wyre Forest, the data are skewed to the left. In particular, this means that considering the dataset there is a long tail of low scores pushing the mean down. This in turn confirms the fact that there is a very large amount of poor and middle class people with a very small super-rich minority.
By contrast, Bromsgrove, Redditch and Worcester, are characterised by the presence of mean values higher than the median thing which suggests the presence of a very large middle class and a small and extremely poor minority even though with different values.
For instance, while Bromsgrove is the least deprived area of the County and Worcester and Redditch the diffuse presence of a middle class, they also have low values if compared to Malvern Hills and Wychavon. This suggest the presence of a polarization of data.
The same trends are confirmed with regard to education and living environment, with the only exception of Wychavon, with areas where the living environment is of better quality if compared to Malvern Hills and Wyre Forest. In contrast, the former including Wychavon are the oneswhere the Crime dataset confirm higherlevels if compared to the ones of Worcester, Bromsgrove and Redditch.
An additional note on the education side can be made focusing on NEETs. Even though the average level of NEETs aged 16-18 can be estimated around 3%, still remains unclear what is the real values of them as more than one in four people in that cluster refuses to declare its status in this respect.
3.2.4 Health
Overall health in Worcestershire is on the whole better than the national average. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, especially for men,rate significantly better in the County than for England and mortality from common conditions and those considered preventable are consequently betterthan average. However theses overall figures mask some differences across the County and as with all Local Authority areas there are inequalities that persist.
For example, Worcestershire appearsto be the least deprived area while all the Districts present a data distribution skewed to the left which means that the average levels are put down by very low data confirming a polarity between the diffuse presences of deprived LSOAs alongside less deprived ones.
Correlating sport to health, it emerges that more than 112,000 Worcestershire residents are inactive (19.4% of the total population) while 1 in 2 among them is eager to practice sport. The estimated cost of inactivity exceeds £10 million while the GVA for the County is worth more £130,700,000 and 4,000 jobs created. This means that for each pound of value created the community loses 8 pence due to sport inactivity.
3.2.5. Arts, Culture and Heritage
With regard to Arts, Culture, Heritage with a GVA of £9,926,900, Worcestershire’simpact on the sector on a national basis counts for0.96%.
The Countyrelies on the extensive presence of arts and culture venues but the presence of few cultural entrepreneurs as well as low levels of competition negatively affects the industry compared to the national average.
The County provides the Three Choirs Festivalin addition to other live events like Worcester Music Festival and Upton Jazz Festival.
In Worcesterthere is one “indie magazine”which focuses on Arts & Culture while the University of Worcester plays a pivotal role in the development of the area as a cultural centre.
However, according to local experts, it emerges a lack of participation by the local citizens who prefer to reach out tolocations outside the county to take part into cultural events.
This is confirmed also by the level of engagement of residents in donations as just 5.7% in 2015/2016 donated for cultural purposes with only 0.1% of resident population (5,786 people) donating for public libraries.
Last but not least, the lack of investments in big projects like a big venue for live concertson top of investments to build a premium hospitality to attract premium tourists complete the picture of a County with low intensity in term of supply and demand of culture.
3.3 Conclusions
Main aim of this section of the report was to define the statistical foundation needed to develop an ad hoc survey to get to the current state of health of Worcestershire.
It emerged that even though, generally speaking, Worcestershire confirms good levels in terms of multiple deprivation on a national scale, the presence of polarization across different categories between extremely rich and extremely poor people exists despite the wide presence of a vast middle class.
The following section will use qualitative problem-centred interviews with 3key stakeholders within Worcestershire to deep dive into the findings of the current research.
SECTION 2
4.0 Introduction
In order to critically evaluate findings from the current quantitative analysis, the author met with a selection of key stakeholders of the area in order to gain qualitative data to be compared and contrasted with our quantitative findings.
The aimis trying to addressthe limitations of the current statistics by leveraging qualitative interviews to broaden the extent of the quantitative analysis.
Threeproblem-centredinterviews were run in the period between 8 and 11 August 2017. The Author met Fortis Living CEO, Guy Weston; West Mercia PCC CEO, Andrew Champness, and Richard Woolley, Head of Centre for Education and Inclusion at University of Worcester. The discussion of main findings follows.
4.1Qualitative Findings
Worcestershire confirms to be a County characterized by the presence of a largemiddle class. However, few areas particularly deprived still remain.
For instance, Wychavonand Wyre Forest are characterized by the high presence of polarization due to the existence of very rich and very poor people which is not easy to find elsewhere, interviewees claimed.
In particular, experts indicated that the societal structure is based on power relationships heavily influenced by massive differences in wealth in some areas and this affects poorest people willingness to advance in life.
This also has a negative impact on level of optimism producing “cycles of deprivation” which means deprivation is transmitted intergenerationally due to the lack of aspiration. This, for instance, explains the persistence of bad housing, low education attainment, and unemployment within poorer households and communities.
Elements which could be considered at the basis of social mobility are not. For instance, one of the main issues in this respect has been represented by the level of university fees which constitute a real access barrier to poorest people to better their status in life.
More in general, even people from middle classesappear to prefer vocational routes instead of pursuing a University path in order to not delay their access to the job market. However, not everybody results successful in this attempt and this in turn produces isolation of most deprived community members.
In a vicious circle, this element affects the quality of health. For instance, the persistence of obesity among those groups is an important factor of social exclusion. In this respect, experts argue that the lack of resilience to get to a better position in society ends up in people searching for comfort elsewhere, like for instance in cheap comfort food.