Samford Debate Institutedrones Aff

Samford Debate InstituteDrones Aff

The Axis of Evil

Thesis

The thesis of this case is that the United States is engaged in an unwise and counterproductive tactic in the war on terrorism: the authorization of drone strikes. Currently, the United States has ramped up Predator drone attacks throughout Afghanistan and Pakistan from bases stationed in Afghanistan. The problem is that the strikes are imprecise, and have led to a great deal of innocent civilians dying in such attacks. This has angered the Pakistani government, undermining US-Pakistani relations. Additionally, such attacks create instability in Pakistan, risking a jihadi take-over of the government. A wiser approach to the war on terrorism would eschew such remote attacks in favor of diplomatic efforts to end the Al-Qaeda threat.

Thesis......

1AC - Drones......

1AC – Drones......

***INH Extension***......

***Extra Scenarios***......

Terrorism......

AT: Kill Em Too Quickly......

Pakistan Instability......

Pakistan Coup......

Pakistan Impact......

Instability – Drones Link......

Pakistan Stability......

Impact Cacl for Aghanistan Stability......

Pakistan War......

Pakistan Relations

Democracy......

International Cred Ext......

A2 Accuracy......

*****Negative Evidence*****......

Drones Good......

1AC - Drones

Contention I: Inherency: The US is ramping up drone strikes from bases in Afghanistan in the present system.

Peter Grier, (Staff), Christian Science Monitor, Dec. 11, 2009..

The RQ-1 Predator drone is the primary unmanned aerial vehicle used for offensive operations in Afghanistan and the adjoining Pakistani tribal areas. Its endurance is such that it can fly 400 nautical miles to a target, loiter overhead for 14 hours, then return. US generals testifying before Congress in recent weeks about the new Afghanistan strategy declined to discuss the issue of missile strikes in public. Again, the program is supposed to be classified. But they freely discussed their appreciation for the intelligence and reconnaissance-gathering abilities of UAVs, which are the flip side of the technology’s abilities. “These programs are expensive, but they are extraordinarily effective and extraordinarily value-added,” Gen. Stanley McChrystal, commander of US forces in Afghanistan, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Dec. 8. According to a recent think-tank report, armed drone strikes have dramatically increased under Mr. Obama – even before his recent decision to bulk up US forces there. There were 43 such attacks between January and October 2009, according to a New America Foundation report. The report draws on what it deems to be credible local and national media stories about the attacks. That compares with a total of 34 in all of 2008, President Bush’s last full year in office.

Plan: The Central Intelligence Agency should end all droning missions in Afghanistan.

Contention Two: US-Pakistani Relations

Drone strikes are radicalizing the population within Pakistan – civilian deaths is straining the relations with the United States

Landay 2010. (Jonathan S. “Do U.S drones kill Pakistani extremists or recruit them?” March 22, 2010. CH)

WASHINGTON — Even as the Obama administration launches new drone attacks into Pakistan's remote tribal areas, concerns are growing among U.S. intelligence and military officials that the strikes are bolstering the Islamic insurgency by prompting Islamist radicals to disperse into the country's heartland. Al Qaida, Taliban and other militants who've been relocating to Pakistan's overcrowded and impoverished cities may be harder to find and stop from staging terrorist attacks, the officials said. Moreover, they said, the strikes by the missile-firing drones are a recruiting boon for extremists because of the unintended civilian casualties that have prompted widespread anger against the U.S. "Putting these guys on the run forces a lot of good things to happen," said a senior U.S. defense official who requested anonymity because the drone operations, run by the CIA and the Air Force, are top-secret. "It gives you more targeting opportunities. The downside is that you get a much more dispersed target set and they go to places where we are not operating." U.S. drone attacks "may have hurt more than they have helped," said a U.S. military official who's been deeply involved in counterterrorism operations. The official, who requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak publicly, called the drone operations a "recruiting windfall for the Pakistani Taliban."

These strikes are causing instability within Pakistan

Ahmad Ahmadani, June 30, 2010. [Staff, The Nation,

ISLAMABAD – The illegal, unlawful and ill-conceived policy of targeting militants through remote-controlled drones is proving to be an unmitigated disaster with devastating consequences for peace, security and stability of Pakistan.
Imran Khan, Chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, stated this in a statement issued here on Tuesday. He further denounced the latest wave of drone attacks across the tribal areas of Pakistan. He flayed the complicit attitude of the Pakistani Government towards flagrant violations of national sovereignty being perpetrated by USA through such drone attacks. He was of the view that instead of eliminating militants and curbing the menace of terrorism, these drone attacks have only fomented further violence, instability and unrest. He described as dismal the success rate of these drone attacks, in which a large number of innocent civilians have perished with marginal damage accruing to the militants. Imran was of the opinion that as many as 45 drones attacks have taken place so far since the beginning of last year with the death toll crossing the figure of 900. Most of them were innocent civilians. He again lamented that such colossal collateral damage is only instilling a sense of hopelessness and fuelling the fire of revenge among the affected Pakistanis and the most deplorable aspect of this affair is the non-institution of any legal or administrative inquiry in the aftermath of such attacks, whereby leaving the people of Pakistan on the mercy of USA. Imran Khan, Chairman, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf further argues,” If militancy could have been controlled or curbed through drone attacks only. Then after such a massive and relentless exercise, the menace should have been eradicated by now but results to the contrary underline the abject failure and counter productivity of this ill-conceived policy”.

1AC - Drones

The data is on our side – the number of terrorist attacks have increased since the Obama decision to use drone strikes in Afghanistan

The Guardian, July 2, 2010.

After last night's bombings in Lahore, an ancient sanctuary, which for centuries was a place for prayer and meditation, has been rudely introduced to Pakistan's very modern conflict. Nothing short of a shift in national culture will rescue the soul of Pakistan's Islamic traditions. In these troubled times of bombings, heatwaves and chronic power shortages, millions have flocked to the shrines of the mystic saints, trying to cajole good fortune out of arguably the most unfortunate period in our country's history. No saint is more venerated than Dhata Ganj Baksh, the great mystical Muslim saint of the 11th century, who is buried in Lahore. When twin blasts exploded in his mausoleum they destroyed more than just the lives of 43 people and their families. A Muslim believes his or her fate is already written. Many will now be wondering what they have done to deserve this punishment. Others, including the Taliban, have immediately blamed foreign powers. Many blame the US for bringing conflict to their region.This is not entirely misplaced – terrorism has increased, not abated, ever since the Obama administration escalated the "AfPak" conflict against al-Qaida and the Taliban by ramping up troop numbers and drone strikes.

The new move to increase drone attacks risks a train wreck for US-Pakistani relations:

Peter Goodspeed, (Staff). NATIONAL POST. Dec. 28, 2009. Retrieved Jan. 13, 2010 from

Suggestions Washington might push its drone war into Baluchistan would open a contentious new front in the clandestine war, just as Pakistan's civilian government is undergoing renewed political turmoil. "Pakistani forces will continue their internal battle against their homegrown insurgency, but are unready to open a new front against the Afghan Taliban," said Shuja Nawaz, director of the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center. "This reluctance will likely provoke private and public pressure for Pakistan to ‘do more' or else risk U.S. drone attacks into Baluchistan and heightened strikes inside the Federally Administered Tribal Area. "If this happens, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship may be heading for a train wreck."

And our link is reverse-causal ending the droning missions restores US-Pakistan relations

Haider 2009 (Kamran ISLAMABAD-Reuters Wed Jan 13, 2010 9:31am EST “Pakistan says U.S. drone attacks could hurt ties”)

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Intensified U.S. drone aircraft attacks or ground operations against Islamist militants in Pakistan could endanger relations between the two allies, Pakistan's foreign minister said on Wednesday. Tension over pilot less drone aircraft attacks will likely deepen as the CIA hunts down enemies along the border after a suicide bomber crossed over Pakistan's border and killed seven of its employees in Afghanistan. Pakistan officially objects to the strikes against suspected al Qaeda and Taliban militants along its northwest, saying they violate its sovereignty. The attacks have also created fierce anti-American sentiment in Pakistan, a key ally Washington sees as a front-line state in its war on militancy. Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said after meeting U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke that some very clear "red lines" were discussed. "I said despite the partnership that we enjoy, Pakistan cannot, and Pakistan feels that it will undermine our relationship, if there's expansion of drones and if there are operations on ground," he told a news conference. The United States has stepped up its drone attacks since the double agent blew himself up at a U.S. base in Afghanistan on December 30, killing seven CIA agents.

1AC - Drones

US-Pakistani relations are on the brink because of the drone program, Pakistan is ready to act

BBC 9(British Broadcasting Channel “Pakistan TV show discusses "increase in hatred" towards US due to drone attacks.” March 26, 2009. P.LN

Mir says Sean D. Murphy, professor at Georgetown University's Law School, in his paper to US Naval War College says that US military's cross border actions from Afghanistan into Pakistan are illegal. Kaira says nobody is accepting the legality of Drone attacks, but superpowers do not act according to international law. Mir jumps in to ask why America is not able to impose its will on Iran or North Korea of Venezuela, why on Pakistan alone. Kaira says: superpowers impose their will on many states other than Pakistan. When Mir says Kaira should then say whether America is "Pakistan's friend or enemy," Kaira says all states are "friendly only to their own interests." Kaira adds: Pakistan's position is different from Iran because Iran is not "//harbouring//" [elements hostile to America], while Pakistan is on "//allegedly harboring//" [list]. When Mir says that Washington Post is reporting that attacks are being carried out with the Pakistan government's consent, Kaira asks why Washington Post's story should be believed. Roy says more than 250,000 children die in Pakistan every year by drinking contaminated water and if the government is not able to solve such minor problem of providing safe drinking water to children, how could it claim that it will succeed in this "//all difficult// and very dangerous war//" [against terror] even with outside help. Mir establishes telephonic contact with Raja Zafarul Haq, senior leader of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Sharif [PML-N], to know his party's position on Drone attacks. Mir says it is publicly known that the PML-N condemns Drone attacks, but it is now being said that the PML-N is also ready to support the present government's policy on US-led war on terror and it is holding talks with high American officials in this connection. Haq says: this is mere speculation and there is no truth in reports that the PML-N will endorse Gen. Pervez Musharraf's policy, which is also being continued by the present government, on Drone attacks. Continuing, Haq says: Pakistan government officials themselves have state that Drone attacks are creating "hatred" toward America and affecting efforts against terrorism and extremism and that is why how could PML-N endorse a policy which directly violates Pakistan's sovereignty and the UN charter. Mir says the question is if the government cannot protect Pakistan's territory, how it could claim that it's the protector of Pakistan's security. Kaira says Parliament not Hamid Mir would decide whether Pakistan should go to war [with America on the issue of Drone attacks]. Mir says: but the day parliament approves a resolution against Drone attacks, America "shreds it to pieces" by carrying out more attacks on which all Pakistanis are in "terrible throe." Kaira says he is also in terrible throe, but what is the solution. Kaira adds: one solution is to make America understand the folly of its policy of Drone attacks and another solution is to "//straightaway go for a war//." Mir says he is not suggesting war, but Drones could be shot down because the Pakistan air chief has stated that Drones could be shot down. Roy joins in to say if Kaira is in terrible throe because of Drone attacks, he should resign as federal minister. Kaira says his resignation will not make any difference, the main point is how do we prevent Drone attacks and the government is working in this direction. Roy says Pakistan should take a stand like the one taken by Iran without worrying for consequences. Mir concludes the discussion by saying that the Parliament resolutions are not going to prevent Drone attacks because America does not care about Pakistan parliament's resolutions. Mir says: there is no justification in international law for repeated attacks on Pakistan's territory by a foreign power and if America claims that Drone attacks are killing Al-Qa'idah leaders, it should provide evidence to support its claim, and provide it before Pakistan’s government decides to act. Mir adds he himself has visited the tribal areas and himself saw only the "bodies of women and children and their graves" and this is not acceptable to him or any other Pakistani. Mir says: Pakistan's parliament now has to play a "decisive role" in this connection. Source: Geo TV, Karachi, in Urdu 1700gmt 25 Mar 09

Now is a uniquely key time-the Pakistani military is growing increasingly sympathetic towards extremists

Jagadish,2009, (Vikram JD Candidate Georgetown Texas Review of Law and Politics, Spring, 13 Tex. Rev. Law & Pol. 223, p. 252-3 CH)

Pakistani officers today, according to South Asia experts, are markedly more "Islamic" than their predecessors thirty years ago, and are more openly supportive of Islamic groups. n141 Ethnic group recruitment has stayed relatively constant over the years, with the Punjabis representing the dominant element in the army, followed by the Pashtuns who occupy approximately 25% of the ranks. n142 The Punjab province is thought to have escaped the influence of religious fanaticism. n143 Yet, there are indications that this is changing with the creeping radicalization of Pakistani society in general. n144 However, the same cannot be said of the Pashtun-populated Northwest Frontier Province, which is especially affected by Islamic extremism. n145 Sharif Shuja observed [*245] that the Pashtun element of the army is growing in influence. n146 Shuja noted that many of these officers are affected personally by counterterrorism operations against their kin in Afghanistan and Northwest Pakistan. n147 In fact, many Pashtun soldiers have been known to sympathize with their ethnic kin in Taliban ranks. n148 Thus, Shuja suggests that the decision to sign a peace deal with local tribes sheltering Islamic extremists was taken to keep this section of the army satisfied. n149 Hence, it is evident that Islamic extremists still have a powerful effect on the practices of the Pakistani army. Furthermore, Owen Bennett Jones states that there is a growing relationship of trust between Pakistani officers and Islamic extremists, with some officers allowing militant groups to carry out certain operations that would normally be undertaken by regular soldiers. n150 Stephen Cohen adds that many of these officers, increasingly drawn from rural Pakistan and poorer areas, often possess a distorted image of the West. n151 They often reflect the belief that the West has specifically singled out Muslims within its crosshairs under the guise of the "War on Terrorism." n152 Hence, the growth of radical Islam in the army has kept pace with the growth of radical Islam in Pakistan as a whole in the aftermath of the Zia era.