RA I/TCC-22/Doc. 6.1, p. 1

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
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RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN
TWENTY-SECOND SESSION
MAHE, SEYCHELLES
25 – 29SEPTEMBER2017 / RA I/TCC-22/Doc. 6.1
(07.VII.2017)
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ITEM 6.1
Original: ENGLISH

REVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL PLAN AND ITS

IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME

Meteorological Component

(Submitted by the Secretariat)

Summary and Purpose of Document
This document provides information and proposals related to various aspects of the meteorological component to assist the Committee in its review of this component of its Technical Plan, which is aimed at strengthening the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning system.

ACTION PROPOSED

The Tropical Cyclone Committee is invited to:

(a)Note the information given in this document and that provided by participants at the session;

(b)Review the meteorological component of its Technical Plan and its Implementation Programme taking into account information provided in this document; and,

(c)Decide on further action to be taken to support meteorological observation.

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Reference:Technical Plan
6.1METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENT

6.1.1WMO INFORMATION SYSTEM

1. Introduction

Previous RA I/TCC sessions have emphasized the importance of implementing WIS in order for NMHS and associated warning services to be able to access and share information essential to their core Tropical Cyclone activities.

Communications systems are a core component of all NMHSs’ infrastructure in RA I. Their maintenance and development should remain a high priority for all Members. Not only are communications essential for the collection of observations and guidance from within the region to support the functioning of the RSMCs and other NMHSs, they are essential for the access to the guidance and products from outside of the region needed by an NMHS to prepare their forecasts and warnings. The benefits of such guidance has been well demonstrated through the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP). Tropical Cyclone monitoring and warning services are very dependent on the quality and timeliness of observations and guidance material that is circulated on the WMO Information System (WIS).

2. Current status of WIS.

The global infrastructure of WIS is now operational. The WIS monitoring system ( demonstrated at CBS-16 shows although all 15 Global Information System Centres (GISCs) are up and running, a look at the detail under each GISC in the monitoring shows that several GISCs have still to establish close working relationships and information exchange with the NMHS in their area of responsibility. This was reflected in the EC-69 decision to send back Recommendation 18 (CBS-16) to CBS as some delegations at EC-69 noted that the planned road map for the Regional Telecommunication Hubs information exchange utilizing the WIS core network was too far from the current data flow. The importance of this aspect to the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee is that if NMHS and Tropical Cyclone RSMCs in the region are not likely to benefit from the new functionality of WIS in the near future as although NMHS have identified their principal GISCs, many have still not taken the steps to utilize these GISCs. A priority for NMHS in the RA I tropical cyclone committee should be to work closely with their GISC to establish the required capabilities and information exchange, using available communication technologies such as the Internet.

The regional information on WIS implementation is available at:

and the RA I plan is accessed at:

The last meeting was advised of the Data Collection Systems and Data Retransmission systems available to the Region through satellite services. WMO and IOC of UNESCO conducted the first meeting of the International Forum of Users of Satellite Data Telecommunication Systems (Satcom) in Madrid in September 2016 (See The forum clearly identified that providers and equipment manufacturers were very supportive. One outcome of the forum was an agreement to estimate the total spend on satellite data communications airtime and equipment across all the national met-hydro services. By providing industry with an idea of the total size of the market, Satcom hope to encourage providers to offer services that more closely meet NMHS and emergency management needs.

3. Alerting authority register

RA I/TCC was advised of the benefits of the use of Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and the importance of registering national warning and alerting authorities in the Alerting Authority Register ( The meeting is advised that the benefits andimportance continue to escalate with such initiatives as the new global multi-hazard alerting system being developed by WMO and its partners.

4. Issues

The meeting is advised that the World Weather Watch monitoring of the GTS traffic flow identified a persistent pattern for upper air observations in Region I of more reports being received in different parts of the year. This is less marked for members of the Tropical Cyclone Committee, but on average two have provided more upper air reports in January than in July - Madagascar (17%) and South Africa (20%).

6.1.2GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM

6.1.2.1SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS

1.In addition to Meteosat-10 in operation, Meteosat-8 has been relocated to the 41.5° East position for the Indian Ocean Data Coverage (IODC) mission. Operational dissemination was started on 1 February 2017.The 3-hourly imagery data and all meteorological products from Meteosat-8 are disseminated on EUMETCast Europe and Africa. The non-essential quarter-hourly imagery data is available to registered users on EUMETCast Europe and Africa.

(

2.China, India and Russia are producing observation from geostationary meteorological satellites for covering Indian Ocean and contributing IODC mission as follow;

  • FY2E (86.5°E): the hourly imagery data and meteorological products are disseminated on EUMETCast Europe and Africa.
  • INSAT-3D (82.0°E): the dissemination of the complete list of essential products from INSAT-3D on EUMETCast is under consideration.
  • Elektro-L N2 (77.8°E): the dissemination of a subset of spectral channels at half-hourly frequency of the imagery data via EUMETCast Europe is currently under implementation. Dissemination of the complete list of essential products from Elektro-L N2 on EUMETCast is under consideration.

3.The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) instrument onboard the European polar orbiting meteorological satellite (Metop) operated by EUMETSAT measures surface wind speeds and directions over the ocean. This is crucial for monitoring the formation and development of the tropical storms and is used to pinpoint the storm centre. These data are processed by and available from the EUMETSAT.

(

6.1.2.2REGIONAL BASIC SYNOPTIC NETWORK (RBSN)

1.The Regional Basic Synoptic Network (RBSN), beinga minimum regional requirement to permit members to fulfill their responsibilities within the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, continued to provide a fundamental basis for weather analysis and forecast and for tropical cyclone warning services in Region I. Overall, the countries of the region are contributing to the implementation of the RBSN (June 2017) by operating a total of 839 surface and69 upper-air synoptic stations of which 249 surface + 20 upper-airsynoptic stationsare located in countries in the area of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee. The details of the observational programmes provided by these stations are given in OSCAR/Surface (

2.The quarterly Integrated WWW Monitoring (IWM) exercise of the operation of the WWW provides information on the performance level of the observing and telecommunications systems. A summary of the analysis following the results of the monitoring carried out during the intersessional period, showing the availability of the SYNOP and TEMP reports from the RBSN stations in the area of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee,is provided in the table below. It should be noted that while a number of surface stations had slightly decreased between 2012 and 2016, that the overall percentage of the SYNOP reports received had shown a small increase. The number of upper-air stations had shown a small increase during this period, while the overall percentage of TEMP reports received slightly increased; see the details in the table below.The community should be alarmed by thedecreasing trendof the number of surface and upper air stations and decide on actions to rectify the situation, including implementation of alternative cost-effective observing systems; see section 6.1.2.3.

RBSN stations in the area of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee

Quarterly Integrated WWW Monitoring (IWM) of the Operation of the WWW, availability of SYNOP/TEMP data at MTN Centres
(Period January 2012 – December 2012 and January 2016 – December 2016)

Surface / Upper Air
2012 / 2016 / 2012 / 2016
Country/Area / Number of Stations / Proportion Reports / Number of Stations / Proportion Reports / Number of Stations / Proportion Reports / Number of Stations / Proportion Reports
Botswana / 16 / 64% / 15 / 46% / 4 / 2% / 4 / 0%
Comoros / 2 / 98% / 2 / 99% / - / - / - / -
French Islands / 8 / 0% / 7 / 97% / 3 / 0% / 2 / 41%
Kenya / 17 / 59% / 11 / 81% / 1 / 29% / - / -
Lesotho / 3 / 9% / 3 / 11% / - / - / - / -
Madagascar / 26 / 51% / 26 / 58% / 2 / 94% / 2 / 27%
Malawi / 2 / 42% / 2 / 32% / 1 / 0% / 1 / 0%
Mauritius / 19 / 61% / 19 / 51% / 2 / 13% / 3 / 30%
Mozambique / 29 / 17% / 27 / 36% / 3 / 0% / 2 / 0%
Namibia / 15 / 53% / 15 / 45% / 1 / 31% / 1 / 39%
Seychelles / 3 / 31% / 3 / 31% / - / - / - / -
South Africa / 80 / 88% / 86 / 99% / 3 / 16% / 1 / 69%
Swaziland / 1 / 50% / 1 / 50% / - / - / - / -
Tanzania / 16 / 70% / 15 / 74% / 3 / 2% / 3 / 0%
Zimbabwe / 17 / 54% / 17 / 59% / 2 / 10% / 1 / 0%
Total / 254 / 50% / 249 / 58% / 24 / 18% / 20 / 21%

3.Sustainability of basic networks in some parts of the region and the low availability of data from those networks remain an issue of concern which emphasizes the need to further strengthen basic networks, especially those in developing and the least developed countries. For more details on the Integrated WWW Monitoring (IWM) results, see

6.1.2.3AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS

1.The aircraft-based observing system, comprising the AMDAR observing system[1] supplemented by aircraft observations derived from ICAO systems, now produces around 800,000 upper air observations per day on the WMO GTS, with the AMDAR system contributing over 700,000 of these observations from a global fleet of around 5000 aircraft from 40 participating airlines. This critical sub-system of the WMO Integrated Global Observing System produces both upper tropospheric en-route (lighter blue in coverage map below) and vertical profile (from AMDAR aircraft at airport locations – red in coverage map below) high quality, upper air temperature and wind data, that continues to demonstrate a significant positive impact on global, regional and high resolution NWP and other forecasting and meteorological applications[1]. With the advent and scientific validation of the Water Vapour Sensing System, WVSS-II, for jet aircraft, there is a growing number of aircraft (currently 151 aircrafts, chiefly providing data over the US and Europe) operationally providing vertical profiles of high quality atmospheric moisture data.

2.The South African AMDAR Programme remains the sole AMDAR Programme in the region, with a fleet of 44 South African Airways aircraft, now providing around 7000 upper air observations, including around 150 vertical profiles per day on the GTS. However, based on a collaboration between WMO, EUMETNET and Météo-France to equip the Boeing B777 fleet of Air France and EUMETNET that of British Airways, the AMDAR coverage over Africa has greatly improved over the past 18 months. WMO and EUMETNET are both supporting the provision of observations from these B777 and other E-AMDAR aircraft over Africa and other data-sparse areas, leading to the additional coverage that is shown below.

Current data coverage from both AFR and BAW B777 fleets and also the E-AMDAR contribution to user requirements for data - one week snapshot of AFR (red) and BAW (blue) B777 data coverage May 2017.

3.Since the previous TCC session,CBS, through its Expert Team on Aircraft Based Observing Systems (ET-ABO), has been endeavouring to continue to collaborate with Regional Association I and its Members in the development of new AMDAR programs in Africa in cooperation with partner organisations and the aviation industry. The association, at its last session and regional conference in Cabo Verde (February 2015), agreed that a regional working body for AMDAR might take on the role of coordinating and overseeing further development of the aircraft-based observing system. A Regional Workshop on AMDAR was held in Nairobi, Kenya over 25-26 June 2015, and a second took place in Casablanca, Morocco in December 2015. As a result of these workshops, new AMDAR programmes have commenced development in both Kenya and Morocco with Kenya Airways and Royal Air Maroc (RAM) respectively. The Kenya programme is expected to begin operation within the next 6 months based on a development project under the Department for International Development (DFID), Weather and Climate Information Services for Africa (WISER) programme. The Morocco programme development is being undertaken in a collaboration between Maroc-Météo and the EUMETNET/E-AMDAR programme, with observations expected to be available from the RAM fleet later in 2017 or early in 2018.

Further growth and enhancement of the AMDAR programme within Africa would be expected to have a significant additional positive impact on tropical cyclone forecasting and monitoring skills and applications of RA I Members.

6.1.2.4MARINE AND OCEAN METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS

1.Although the baseline system proposed under the implementation goals for JCOMM Observations Programme Area was designed to meet climate requirements, non-climate applications, such as NWP, tropical cyclone prediction, global and coastal ocean prediction, and marine services in general, will be improved by implementation of the systematic global observations of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) called for by the GCOS-200 implementation needs.

2.Globally, the ocean in situ observing system is now 67% implemented although no substantial progress according to the completion targets has been noticed in the last few years. All data are being made freely available to all Members in realtime. Tropical oceans provide for an important heat engine of global climate and weather patterns, and the Tropical moored buoy arrays, the Argo profiling float programme, and ships of opportunity deploying XBTs provide essential upper ocean thermal data from that perspective. These data complement other existing satellite (e.g. sea level) and in situ observations in the region. All data are being made freely available to all Members in realtime. Completion will require substantial additional yearly investment by the Members/Member States, including in WMO Regional Association I.

3.This map shows the status of ocean observing networks in the Indian Ocean during May 2017. As it is apparent from the map, there are gaps in ocean monitoring in East Mariana Basin area, South east Asian region, Mozambique Channel, West of the Somali Basin and Southern Indian Ocean.

4.Therefore TCC members are invited to explore enhanced contributions of WMO Members in the region in support of the implementation of marine meteorological and oceanographic observing systems as follows:

  • Efforts are necessary to ensure adequate geographical coverage and ensure sustainability of the array.
  • Support the Argo profiling float programme, which is providing upper ocean temperature and salinity profiles from the world oceans. Support can be through the purchase of floats, the deployment of floats provided by other countries, and identification of new float deployment opportunities.
  • Maintain the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis (RAMA) array to assure coverage of the tropical oceans - the heat engine of global climate and weather patterns.
  • Deploy Cost-effective technology that exists for surface drifters equipped with thermistor strings and designed to be deployed in tropical cyclone conditions.
  • Increase Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) observations from tropical regions, and the southern ocean which remain relatively data sparse.
  • Support the Ship of Opportunity Programme (SOOP) which is providing upper ocean temperature profiles from Expendable Bathythermographs (XBTs), by for example identifying and providing ship recruitment opportunities.
  • Provide international support for equipment and training in order to close gaps in the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Core Network (GCN, sea level from tide gauges).

5.Members interested to contribute are invited to contact the JCOMM in situ Observations Programme Support Centre – JCOMMOPS – at .

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[1] See: