Review of the 2017 Adjustment Applications by Belgium

Review of the 2017 Adjustment Applications by Belgium

in accordance with article 5(1) and 5(6) of Directive 2016/2284 (NECD)

Date:14 June 2017

Review conducted by: EC, DG Environment, unit C.3 –Clean Air

Contents

1.Introduction

2.Context and organization of the review

3.Overview of 2017 adjustment applications

4.Assessment of reporting formalities

5.Assessment of consistency with requirements of NEC Directive

6.Assessment of consistency with corresponding approved adjustments under CLRTAP

7.Conclusions

8.Information provided

9.References

1.Introduction

Article 5 of the European Union's National Emission Ceilings Directive 2016/2284/EU (NECD) explains that Member States may draw on a number of different flexibilities in order to address some of the uncertainties inherent in setting national emission reduction commitments. This includes the option set out in paragraph 1 of applying for an adjustment to the national total, under selected circumstances.

Article 21(2) of the NECD allows the use of the adjustment flexibility set out in article 5(1) also for the 2010 ceilings as laid down in Directive 2001/81/EC. As specified in article 21(1) of the NECDthe 2010 ceilings will remain applicable until 31/12/2019.

Article 5(1) permits Member States - for the purpose of checking compliance with the emission ceilings - to establish adjusted annual national emission inventories where non-compliance with their emission reduction commitments would result from applying improved emission inventory methods updated in accordance with scientific knowledge.

In accordance with Annex IVpart 4(1)(d)of the NECD an adjustment to a national emission inventory must be consistent with at least one of the following three circumstances:

(i) emission source categories are indentified that were not accounted for at the time when the emission reduction commitments were set

(ii) emission factors used to estimate emissions are significantly different to those used when the emission reduction commitments were set

(iii) methodologies used to estimate emissions are significantly different to those used when the emission reduction commitments were set

Member States that intend to apply for an adjustment shall in accordance with article 5(5) of the NECD inform the Commission thereof by 15 February of the reporting year concerned. In accordance with Article 10(2), one month later, by 15 March, the Member States concerned shall provide the adjusted national emission inventories and supporting information prepared in accordance with Annex IV of the NECD.Article 8(4) and part 4 of Annex IV of the NECD further specify that Member States that opt for the adjustment flexibility must include the supporting information in the Informative Inventory Report, including a demonstration that the use of the adjustment procedure fulfils the relevant conditions set out in article 5(1) and part 4 of Annex IV. The minimum supporting information required is highlighted in part 4(1) of Annex IV (which is based on paragraph 2 of the Annex to LRTAP EB Decision 2012/12). In the chapeau of Annex IV of the NECD it is further specified that adjusted emission inventories should be prepared using the EMEP Reporting Guidelines (which in its turn contains references to the relevant LRTAP EB decisions 2012/3 and 2012/12, as amended by 2014/1), while also explaining that reliance upon these EMEP Reporting Guidelines is without prejudice to the additional arrangements specified in Article 5(1) second subparagraph and part 4 of Annex IV.Additional technical guidance for making adjustment applications is made available in LRTAP report ECE/EB.AIR/130.

2.Context and organization of the review

As set out in article 5(6) of the NECD, an adjustment application submitted by a Member State must be reviewed by the Commission, with the assistance of the European Environment Agency, within 9 months from the date of receipt of the supplementary information as included in the informative inventory report.This means at the latest by 15 December if the reporting date of the informative inventory report is respected. Where the Commission has raised no objections in this period, the adjustment application shall be considered as valid and accepted for that year. In case of rejection the Commission shall adopt a decision within these 9 months informing the Member State concerned that the adjustment application cannot be accepted and stating the reasons for that refusal.

The adjustment applications for NOX and NMVOC that Belgium - in accordance with articles 5(5) and 10(2) of the NECD - has submitted to the Commissionin the first quarter of 2017, have already been reviewed and approved under the LRTAP Convention(CLRTAP) in previous years[1].

The Commission, with technical support from the European Environment Agency, has reviewed Belgium'sadjustment applicationsagain independently,but with due consideration of the findings and conclusions of the corresponding adjustment reviews conducted under CLRTAP in 2015 and 2016, and in particular relying on the technical assessments of the quantification of the impact of the adjustments as performed by the expert review teams under CLRTAP.

In line with articles 5(6) and 10(2) of the NECD the Commission's independent review concentrated on consistency checks with (i) the requirements of the NECD (fulfilment ofthe relevant conditions set out in article 5(1) and part 4 of Annex IV) and (ii) the corresponding approved adjustments under CLRTAP(requirement of consistency with reporting to CLRTAP).

In accordance with article 5(8) of the NECD the Commissiontook into account the relevant guidance documents developed under CLRTAP for conducting its review.

3.Overview of 2017 adjustment applications

Table 1 shows the details of Belgium's adjustment applications submitted to the Commission in 2017. All emission adjustmentsincluded in the applicationsfor NOX and NMVOC have been originally approved under CLRTAPin 2015. The emission adjustments concern the road transport sector (NFR 1A3b) for NOX and the agricultural sector (NFR 3B-3D) for NOX and NMVOC.

With respect to NMVOC, Belgium applied only for 2010, since from 2011 on, Belgium's national total for NMVOC is below the NEC emission ceiling for NMVOC and an adjustment is no longer necessary.

Table 1:Adjustment applications to emission inventories submitted under NECD in 2017

Pollutant / NFR source category / years
code / description
NOX / 1A3bi, ii, iii and iva / Road transport / 2010-2015
NOX / 3Bb / Manure management / 2010-2015
NOX / 3Da1 / Inorganic N-fertilizers / 2010-2015
NOX / 3Da2a / Animal manure applied to soils / 2010-2015
NMVOC / 3B b / Manure management / 2010
NMVOC / 3De / Cultivated crops / 2010

Abbreviations: NFR = Nomenclature for Reporting; NOX = nitrogen oxides; NMVOC = non-methane volatile organic compounds

a1A3bi = passenger cars, 1A3bii = light duty vehicles, 1A3bii = heavy duty vehicles and buses, 1A3biv = mopeds and motorcycles

b 3B covers the entire source category

4.Assessment of reporting formalities

The reporting formalities are set out in articles 5(5), 8(4), 8(5) and 10(2) of the NECD.

a. Assessment of reporting formalities of article 5(5)

"Member States that intend to apply paragraph 1, 2, 3 or 4 shall inform the Commission thereof by 15 February of the reporting year concerned. That information shall include the pollutants and sectors concerned and, where available, the magnitude of the impacts upon national inventories."

Belgium notified the Commission of its intention to apply for adjustments to its NOX and NMVOC emission inventories on 15 February 2017 and thus in time for the legal deadline of 15 February[2]. The notification includes the pollutants (NOX and NMVOC), sectors (road transport and agriculture) and years (2010-2015 for NOX, 2010 for NMVOC) concerned. The notification letter also makes areference to the related adjustment applications under CLRTAP. The main emissions reporting template submitted by the deadline of 15 February reports on the magnitude of the adjustments in row 143 (sum of the adjustments).

b. Assessment of reporting formalities of article 8(4)

"Member States that opt for a flexibility under Article 5 shall include the information demonstrating that the use of that flexibility fulfils the relevant conditions set out in Article 5(1) and Part 4 of Annex IV or in Article 5(2), (3) or (4), where applicable, in the informative inventory report of the year concerned."

Belgium provided the requested supporting information in a separate report (2017 adjustment report) that resumes the adjustment report from 2015 submitted in the framework of the adjustment applications under CLRTAP, but updated with the emissions figures reported in the NECD reporting of 15/02/2017[3]. The conclusions of this adjustment report, together with a reference to the separate adjustment report for the details, are included in chapter 11 of its 2017 informative inventory report. Further details are provided in associated excel files.

No additional information or clarification was requested by the Commission during the review. No additional information was provided by Belgium.

c. Assessment of reporting formalities of article 8(5)

"Member States shall prepare and update the national emission inventories (including if appropriate adjusted national emission inventories), national emission projections, spatially disaggregated national emission inventories, large point source inventories and the accompanying informative inventory reports in accordance with Annex IV."

In Annex IV of the NECD it is specified that adjusted emission inventories should be prepared using the EMEP Reporting Guidelines (which in its turn contains references to the relevant LRTAP EB decisions 2012/3 and 2012/12, as amended by 2014/1), while also explaining that reliance upon these EMEP Reporting Guidelines is without prejudice to the additional arrangements specified in article 5(1) second subparagraph and part 4 of Annex IV.

In line with the EMEP Reporting Guidelines and the applicable reporting instructions and templates, Belgium reported the quantitative details of its proposed adjustments using the applicable excel reporting template (Appendix B1 excel template to the LRTAP Technical Guidance ECE/EB.AIR/130).Summary information on adjustments was provided using the excel reporting template Annex VII of the EMEP Reporting Guidelines (used for the reporting of the approved adjustments under CLRTAP).

d. Assessment of reporting formalities of article 10(2)

"Member States shall provide their national emission inventories and projections, spatially disaggregated national emission inventories, large point source inventories and the informative inventory reports referred to in Article 8(1), (2) and (3) and, where relevant, in Article 8(4), to the Commission and the European Environment Agency in accordance with the reporting dates set out in Annex I.

This reporting shall be consistent with the reporting to the Secretariat of the LRTAP Convention."

The reporting date for the annual reporting of the informative inventory reports set in Annex I is 15 March.

Belgium provided its informative inventory report together with its adjustment report and its quantitative information in excel format by the legal deadline of 15 March.

Belgium’s reporting of its national emission inventories, adjusted national emission inventories and informative inventory report to the Commission is fully consistent with Belgium’s corresponding reporting to CLRTAP.Belgium also provided the Commission a separate Declaration on consistency with reporting of the approved adjustments under CLRTAP(see more in chapter 6).

5.Assessment of consistency with requirements of NEC Directive

The relevant conditions are set out in article 5(1) and part 4 of Annex IV of the NECD.

a. Assessment of requirement of paragraph 1(a) of part 4 of Annex IV

"Evidence that the concerned national emission reduction commitment/s is/are exceeded"

Table 2 provides the overview of the reported national emissions totals for NOX and NMVOC for the time series 2010-2015, submittedunder the NECD by Belgium on 15 February 2017.

Table 2:National emission totals (fuel used based)

National emission total / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
NOX (kt) / 229,80 / 214,66 / 204,44 / 198,82 / 191,44 / 186,36
NMVOC (kt) / 144,75 / 132,39 / 130,28 / 127,86 / 120,56 / 118,58

The reported national totals for NOX for the years 2010 to 2015 exceed the 2010 NOXNEC ceiling of 176 kt.The reported national total for NMVOC for the year 2010 exceeds the 2010 NMVOC NEC ceiling of 139 kt.

b. Assessment ofrequirement of paragraph 1(b) of part 4 of Annex IV

"Evidence of the extent to which the adjustment to the emission inventory reduces the exceedance and contributes to compliance with the concerned national emission reduction commitment/s"

Belgium provided information on the impact of the proposed adjustments to its emission inventories for NOX and NMVOC. The adjusted national emission inventories for NOX would bring Belgium 4% below its NOX ceilingfor the year 2010, increasing to 24% belowits NOX ceiling for the year 2015. The adjusted national emission inventory for NMVOC would bring Belgium 17% below its NMVOC ceilingfor the year 2010.

c. Assessment ofrequirement of paragraph 1(c) of part 4 of Annex IV

"An estimation of whether and when the concerned national emission reduction commitment/s is/are expected to be attained based on national emission projections without adjustment"

In its 2017 adjustment report Belgium included information on when it expects to meet its NOX ceiling without the proposed adjustments. Belgium estimates that compliance will be achieved by 2017. This is in line with the national 'unadjusted'WM[4]emission projections that Belgium in accordance with article 10(2) of the NECD submitted to the Commission on 15 March 2017.

What NMVOC concerns, table 2above shows that compliance without adjustments was achieved from 2011 onwards.

d. Assessment of requirement of paragraph 1(d) of part 4 of Annex IV and article 5(1)

"Evidence that the adjustment is consistent with one or several of the three circumstances ...'

The three circumstances in paragraph 1(d) account for (i) new emission source categories, (ii) significant changes in emission factors and (iii) significant changes in methodologies.

The requirement in paragraph 1(d) of part 4 of Annex IV follows the main condition set in article5(1) that the adjustment flexibility is allowed where non-compliance is the result from applying improved emission inventory methods updated in accordance with scientific knowledge.

With respect to NOX Belgium submitted an adjustment application to account for new emission source categories (NFR 3B, 3Da1 and 3Da2a) and significant changes in emission factors (NFR 1A3bi-iv). With respect to NMVOC Belgium submitted an adjustment application to account for new emission source categories (NFR 3B and 3De).

Belgium provided sufficient evidence in its supporting information to demonstrate that the proposed adjustments for NOX and NMVOC are consistent with the respective circumstances. The expert review team under CLRTAPreached the same conclusion in its 2015 review report for Belgium.

6.Assessment of consistency with corresponding approved adjustments under CLRTAP

The adjustments for Belgium regarding NMVOC in manure management (NFR 3B) and cultivated crops (NFR 3De) and regarding NOX in road transport (NFR 1A3bi-iv), manure management (NFR 3B) and agricultural soils (NFR 3Da1, 3Da2a) have been approved under CLRTAP, originally in 2015.

Belgium submitted a 'declaration on consistent reporting of approved adjustments' on the 15th of February 2017 declaring that "the criteria and methodologies used for the calculation of adjustments for the years 2010 - 2015 submitted by 15 February 2017 are totally the same for all sectors and pollutants as in the year the adjustments were approved (2015)".

The national emission inventories and adjustment applications for NOXand NMVOC submitted under the NECD in February/March 2017 are fully consistent (identical) with the 2017 LRTAP submissions.

In accordance with point 1(a) and (b) of part 4 of Annex IV of the new NECD, adjustments are in principle only eligible for the years were they are really necessary to reach compliance.It should be noted that although part of the adjustment applications, while needed to reach compliance with applicable ceilings for the first couple of years are no longer needed for reaching compliance in the more recent years, the approach followed in the review was to also accept the application of all adjustments to the more recent inventories including those adjustments that are no longer required to reach compliance in the more recent years, this in order to preserve consistency with already approved adjustments under CLRTAP.

a. NOX adjusted emissions

Table 3 provides an overview of the NOX adjusted emissions, as submitted in 2015 and 2016 under CLRTAPand as submitted in 2017 under CLRTAPand the NECD, together with the reported emission totals for the respective sectors for which the adjusted emissions apply.

Table 3:NOX adjusted emissions - overview

NFR source category / Description / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Submission 2017 - NECD and CLRTAP
National total (kt) / Fuel used based / 229,80 / 214,66 / 204,44 / 198,82 / 191,44 / 186,36
NEC 2010 ceiling (kt) / Stricter than 2010 GP ceiling / 176 / 176 / 176 / 176 / 176 / 176
Exceedance of NEC 2010 ceiling (kt) / 53,80 / 38,66 / 28,44 / 22,82 / 15,44 / 10,36
1A3bi, ii, iii, ivSector estimate (kt) / Road transport - fuel used based / 103,97 / 98,79 / 93,40 / 91,17 / 86,77 / 80,67
Adjustment (kt) / -48,21 / -47,98 / -47,33 / -47,24 / -44,80 / -40,45
3BSector estimate (kt) / Manure management / 0,38 / 0,37 / 0,37 / 0,37 / 0,38 / 0,38
Adjustment (kt) / -0,38 / -0,37 / -0,37 / -0,37 / -0,38 / -0,38
3Da1Sector estimate (kt) / Inorganic N-fertilizers / 6,03 / 5,92 / 5,77 / 5,72 / 5,79 / 5,72
Adjustment (kt) / -6,03 / -5,92 / -5,77 / -5,72 / -5,79 / -5,72
3Da2aSector estimate (kt) / Animal manure applied to soils / 6,80 / 6,53 / 6,31 / 6,31 / 6,22 / 6,12
Adjustment (kt) / -6,80 / -6,53 / -6,31 / -6,31 / -6,22 / -6,12
Total adjustments (kt) / -61,43 / -60,79 / -59,78 / -59,65 / -57,19 / -52,68
Submission 2016 - CLRTAP (accepted adjustments)
National total (kt) / Fuel used based / 229,77 / 214,41 / 204,18 / 198,97 / 187,68
GP 2010 ceiling (kt) / Less strict than 2010 NEC ceiling / 181 / 181 / 181 / 181 / 181
Exceedance of GP 2010 ceiling (kt) / 48,77 / 33,41 / 23,18 / 17,97 / 6,68
1A3bi, ii, iii, ivSector estimate (kt) / Road transport - fuel used based / 103,97 / 98,79 / 93,40 / 91,56 / 87,25
Adjustment (kt) / -48,20 / -47,95 / -47,33 / -47,58 / -45,16
3BSector estimate (kt) / Manure management / 0,38 / 0,37 / 0,37 / 0,37 / 0,37
Adjustment (kt) / -0,38 / -0,37 / -0,37 / -0,37 / -0,37
3Da1Sector estimate (kt) / Inorganic N-fertilizers / 6,03 / 5,92 / 5,77 / 5,72 / 5,77
Adjustment (kt) / -6,03 / -5,92 / -5,77 / -5,72 / -5,77
3Da2aSector estimate (kt) / Animal manure applied to soils / 6,80 / 6,53 / 6,31 / 6,25 / 6,11
Adjustment (kt) / -6,80 / -6,53 / -6,31 / -6,25 / -6,11
Total adjustments (kt) / -61,41 / -60,77 / -59,78 / -59,93 / -57,41
Submission 2015 - CLRTAP (accepted adjustments)
National total (kt) / Fuel used based / 231,79 / 216,92 / 206,76 / 199,49
GP 2010 ceiling (kt) / Less strict than 2010 NEC ceiling / 181 / 181 / 181 / 181
Exceedance of GP 2010 ceiling (kt) / 50,79 / 35,92 / 25,76 / 18,49
1A3bi, ii, iii, ivSector estimate (kt) / Road transport - fuel used based / 104,25 / 99,04 / 93,67 / 89,77
Adjustment (kt) / -47,98 / -47,77 / -47,17 / -46,54
3BSector estimate (kt) / Manure management / 0,39 / 0,38 / 0,38 / 0,37
Adjustment (kt) / -0,39 / -0,38 / -0,38 / -0,37
3Da1Sector estimate (kt) / Inorganic N-fertilizers / 5,94 / 5,85 / 5,64 / 5,73
Adjustment (kt) / -5,94 / -5,85 / -5,64 / -5,73
3Da2aSector estimate (kt) / Animal manure applied to soils / 7,60 / 7,29 / 7,07 / 6,95
Adjustment (kt) / -7,60 / -7,29 / -7,07 / -6,95
Total adjustments (kt) / -61,90 / -61,30 / -60,26 / -59,60

The overview in table 3 shows that the 2017 adjustment application for NOX submitted under the NECDis consistent with the adjustment applications submitted and reviewed under CLRTAPin 2015 and 2016.

The very small differences in reported emission estimates for road transport (NFR 1A3bi-iv) and hence adjustments are - according to Belgium's declaration - due to the use of a newer COPERT version and for the period 2013-2015 due to updated mobility data. The sector estimates and adjusted emissions for NFR 1A3bi-iv for the years 2010 - 2012 have not changed compared to slightly recalculated values reported in 2016. It was concluded by the CLRTAP expert review team in 2016 that there had been no change in the methodology between 2015 and 2016 that would change the original approval of this adjustment application in 2015.

The adjustments for the agricultural sectors (NFR categories 3B, 3Da1, 3Da2a) have been recalculated in 2016 to account for changes in the activity data (animal numbers, use of inorganic fertilizer). The resulting values for the years 2010-2013 have decreased slightly (by 5%) with respect to the adjustment values approved in 2015. It was concluded by the CLRTAP expert review team in 2016 that there had been no change in the methodology between 2015 and 2016 that would change the original approval of these adjustment applications in 2015. The adjustment values reported in 2017 for the agricultural sectors for the years 2010-2014 have not (or minimal) changed compared to the recalculated and approved values reported in 2016.