Reliability Planning Priorities 20151

Reliability Planning Priorities 20151

Background

In February, 2015, TEPPC approved a “hybrid” approach to managing the planning workload and reporting on analytical results in 2015. The primary elements of this approach are:

Maintaining a public data base of data and models;
Managing the Interconnection-wide planning process;
Completing technical and economic analyses and reports; and
Preparing a bi- or triennial Interconnection-wide transmission report.

Each of these components contains many specific work activities. For example, the public data base contains not only many separate data bases such as the 2024 Common Case and the 2034 Reference Case, but also updated versions of each data base. And, the potential technical and economic analyses include uncompleted study cases from previous study programs, current study case requests and analyses of current planning and reliability issues.

The hybrid reporting approach approved by TEPPC allows greater flexibility in scheduling and completing items included in the TEPPC Work Plan. With the decision not to prepare a comprehensive Interconnection-wide transmission plan in 2015, similar to the Plan produced in 2013, WECC’s staff and stakeholders can vary from the timeline used in previous planning cycles. However, with increased flexibility comes the responsibility to plan and communicate schedules for completing priority work products.

2015 As a Transition Year

TEPPC was created in 2005 and, since then, has been leading transmission expansion planning activities in the Western Interconnection. Planning activities since 2005 have focused around a two-year planning cycle, a structure emphasized and expanded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) grant that funded new activities and tools from 2010 through 2014. However, many aspects of the planning process have changed in the past 12 months or so:

TEPPC approved a new reporting process that does not include developing a comprehensive biennial transmission plan, similar to the 2013 WECC Interconnection-wide Transmission Plan.
Stakeholders have requested that WECC staff complete multiple updates to the Common Case, rather than keeping one version of the Common Case in place for up to one year.
Stakeholders have requested the WECC complete a “round trip” analysis to reconcile data used in power flow and production cost models.
TEPPC and the Reliability Planning staff have begun to reconsider the business processes directed by the TEPPC Planning Protocol and other ways to organize and direct WECC’s transmission planning work.
WECC dedicated significant resources in 2014 to completing a Preliminary Technical Report on the EPA’s Rule 111(d) and has developed a second phase of its work to consider the reliability impacts of states’ efforts to implement the rule.
WECC has continued development of its Integrated Reliability Assurance Model (IRAM) and consideration of ways that it might impact Reliability Planning and TEPPC. This effort has included integrating WECC’s activities across programs, for example, integrating transmission expansion planning work with other planning and reliability efforts.
Regional Planning Groups have developed their approaches to complying with FERC Order 1000 and have considered ways that WECC might be able to support their efforts.

2015 is a transition year as WECC and TEPPC evolve from the processes that served the planning process well from TEPPC’s inception through the end of the DOE grant to a future process that will implement WECC’s Integrated Reliability Assurance Model. WECC’s Reliability Planning staff has developed a suggested work plan for 2015 that will focus on completing the highest priority activities within the resources and time available. This plan is intended to be a starting point for the discussion; if other activities provide greater value to stakeholders, the Reliability Planning staff will adjust its priorities accordingly.

Current Workload Assessment

WECC’s Reliability Planning staff has determined that it is unrealistic to expect WECC staff to complete all of the studies, analyses, data base updates and issue research that have been requested. WECC has tended to accept all requested study request and to attempt to complete as many as possible in any given year. But, while all of the analyses currently on the Reliability Planning staff’s plate would contribute to an improved understanding of planning-related reliability issues and ways that they could be used in planning for the future grid in the Western Interconnection, staff simply does not have the time or resources to complete all of this work in 2015. It is necessary to define a set of work products that can reasonably be completed by the end of 2015.

Additionally, without the firm schedule dictated by previous study programs that led to creating a biennial transmission plan, it is essential to develop a schedule for the work that can be completed this year. Doing so will establish realistic expectations for both stakeholders and WECC staff.

WECC has chosen to bring these concerns to TEPPC‘s attention proactively now, rather than waiting until the end of the year, to enable TEPPC and its stakeholders to consider options for addressing them sooner rather than later and to avoid surprises at the end of 2015.

Priority Work for 2015

Reliability Planning offers this document to achieve the following goals:

Identify the work that will provide the most value to stakeholders and staff;
Prioritize Reliability Planning staff’s work to meet stakeholders expectations;
Identify work that cannot be completed with available resources; and
Create a schedule for completing the highest priority work in 2015.

This prioritization plan is built on the following assumptions:

WECC will consider stakeholders’ priorities for work products in establishing its work plan.
WECC reserves the right to manage staff’s workload.
Analyses that use WECC’s planning tools and models will be completed by WECC staff.
Completing work products included in the prioritization may depend on receiving input (e.g., data or modeling support) from entities outside of WECC; if staff does not receive this input, it may not be possible to complete the work product.
WECC does not intend to procure additional resources in 2015, either by contracting for outside resources or by augmenting its internal resources, to fulfil additional analytical requests from stakeholders.

There are many ways to prioritize the Reliability Planning staff’s work for 2015 to meet internal (WEC staff) and external (TEPPC and its stakeholders’) needs. WECC will collaborate with TEPPC and its stakeholders to develop a plan that will meet the needs of both internal and external constituencies.

Reliability Planning staff has considered the prioritization criteria listed in the TEPPC Planning Protocol as a starting point for recommending work priorities. It has applied those criteria, along with the following considerations, to identify its recommended priorities for work to be completed in 2015:

Study cases that are focused on identifying impacts across the entire Western Interconnection (as compared to those that would examine a smaller portion of the Western Interconnection).
Work that provides significant value to the broadest cross section of stakeholders.
Work that is already in progress.
Analyses and study cases that support other planning work already in progress (e.g., SPSG scenarios).
Work that supports one or more of the reliability issues identified in WECC’s Integrated Reliability Assurance Model (IRAM).

WECC’s goal is to develop a recommended portfolio of work products that maintains WECC’s integrity and reputation. It is important to recognize limitations on WECC’s resources to complete the many work products currently underway or proposed for 2015. It is equally important to recognize that WECC’s decisions about which projects to complete and which to defer will affect stakeholders’ perceptions of the organization. WECC’s goal is to find the most acceptable balance between identifying work that it can reasonably complete by the end of the year and fulfilling commitments that it has made over the course of the most recent planning cycles.

WECC has not made final decisions about the planning work on which it will focus. Rather, it plans to discuss work priorities with TEPPC and its stakeholders in the next few weeks to attempt to reach consensus on the highest-priority work. As a starting point for discussion, WECC’s Reliability Planning staff recommends the following work priorities for the balance of 2015. Staff believes that this is a realistic portfolio of work products that it can complete in 2015:

2024 Common Case: System Adequacy Planning (SAP) staff has posted several versions of the 2024 Common Case on the WECC web site, the most recent of which is version 1.5. Staff proposes to complete Version 2.0 as the next and only planned release of the 2024 Common Case in 2015, the main goal of which will be to complete the Production Cost to/from Power Flow Model Conversion investigation and documentation.
2034 Reference Case: This will be completed and posted on the WECC web site for stakeholders’ use.
Priority 10-Year Study Cases from 2014 TEPPC Study Program: WECC’s System Adequacy Planning (SAP) staff has not yet completed 10-year study cases that were included in the 2014 TEPPC Study Program. Many of these are in progress and some are nearing completion. Appendix 1 shows SAP staff’s recommended priorities for 10-year study cases to be completed in 2015, based on their perceived value to stakeholders and the ability of SAP staff to complete them in 2015.
Priority 20-year Study Cases from 2014 TEPPC Study Program: Similar to the 10-year study cases, SAP staff has not yet completed 20-year study cases that were included in the 2014 TEPPC Study Program. Appendix 2 shows SAP staff’s recommended priorities for 20-year studies to be completed in 2015.
Priority Power Flow Model (PFM) Study Cases. SAP staff has received requests to complete study cases using the power flow model (PFM). Those recommended for completion in 2015 are shown in Appendix 3.
Priority Issue-Based Analyses: Among the many issues that could affect the reliability of the Western Interconnection, some will be higher priorities during 2015. Recommended issue-based analysis priorities are shown in Appendix 4.
Prepare 2015 Year-End Interconnection-wide Summary Reliability Planning Report. The report would include themes identified from other analyses during 2015, reports on reliability issues investigated during 2015, summaries of regional planning activities and any appropriate findings or recommendations.
Begin planning for 2016. This would include creating an approach for developing the 2026 Common Case and revisions, the 2016 TEPPC Study Program and the 2016 TEPPC Work Plan and revising the TEPPC Planning Protocol.

By defining work to be completed in 2015, WECC and its stakeholders will also define work that is not likely to be completed in 2015. Work that is not included in the prioritization suggested above and that likely would not be completed in 2015 includes:

10-year study cases from the 2014 TEPPC Study Program that are not identified in Appendix 1 below;
20-year study cases from the 2014 TEPPC Study Program that are not identified in Appendix 2 below;
Completion of a 2036 Reference Case; and
Completion of 10-year and 20-year study cases included in the 2015 TEPPC Study Program. These studies would depend on completing the 2026 Reference Case.

Stakeholders and WECC staff have dedicated significant work during 2015 to creating and revising the 2015 Study Program and preparing it for TEPPC’s consideration. While the study cases included in the 2015 Study Program would not be completed during 2015 under this proposal, the work completed to date would still be valuable. The 2015 Study Program would be used as a starting point for defining work to be completed in 2016.

Appendix 5 shows the requested study cases from the 2014 TEPPC Study Program that would not be completed in 2015, based on Reliability Planning staff’s recommended priorities.

Proposed Timeline

As a starting point for discussion, Reliability Planning offers the following high-level timeline for the remainder of 2015:

Future Actions

As stated previously, this report is intended to apply only to 2015 as a transition year. TEPPC and Reliability Planning will need to consider many important questions to provide guidance for future work plans including:

How should the TEPPC Planning Protocol be designed to provide the most useful guidance to WECC’s transmission planning activities?
Should TEPPC continue to implement a biennial planning cycle or would a different approach, e.g., an annual study cycle with bi- or triennial Interconnection-wide reports, be more useful?
Would a shorter open season (e.g., one month) be more useful?
Should the Common Case be updated regularly throughout the year or should it be limited to one or two versions each year?
Which of the many planning analyses and reports will be most useful to stakeholders in the long run?
How can TEPPC work more effectively with Regional Planning Groups, the Planning Coordination Committee and NERC to avoid duplication of efforts?

Reliability Planning will work with TEPPC stakeholders to develop a transmission planning process that will meet these and other needs.

Reliability Planning Priorities 20151

Appendix 1: Recommended 10-Year Study Case Priorities for 2015

The production cost studies shown below will be run on version 1.5 of the 2024 Common Case:

Case ID / Description / Comment
2024PC01-V1.5 / “Common Case”, V1.5 / High impact and use
2024PC02 / 10-Yr: High Load / Already started and/or run
2024PC03 / 10-Yr: Low Load / Already started and/or run
2024PC04 / 10-Yr: High Hydro / Already started and/or run
2024PC05 / 10-Yr: Low Hydro / Already started and/or run
2024PC06 / 10-Yr: High Gas / Already started and/or run
2024PC07 / 10-Yr: Low Gas / Already started and/or run
2024PC10 / 10-Yr: High CO2 Price / Already started and/or run
2024PC11 / 10-Yr: Low/no CO2 Price / Already started and/or run
2024PC17 / 10-Yr: Wind Forecasting Study / Already started and/or run
2024PC18 / 10-Yr: High distributed photovoltaic (PV) beyond current RPS in CA / High West-wide Impact
2024EC18-1 / 10-Yr: Storage (central vs. distributed) tested to mitigate stress in PC18 / Expansion Case of High West-wide Impact Study
2024EC18-2 / 10-Yr: BA coordination to mitigate stresses in PC18 / Expansion Case of High West-wide Impact Study
2024PC19 / 10-Yr: High distributed PV beyond current RPS west wide / High West-wide Impact
2024EC19-1 / 10-Yr: Storage (central vs. distributed) tested to mitigate stress in PC19 / Expansion Case of High West-wide Impact Study
2024EC19-2 / 10-Yr: BA coordination to mitigate stresses in PC19 / Expansion Case of High West-wide Impact Study
2024PC20 / 10-Yr: Coal Retirement A / High West-wide Impact
2024PC22 / 10-Yr: Specify high renewables target based on increased RPS across multiple states (e.g., 50% increase RPS levels) / High West-wide Impact
2024PC30 / 10-Yr: BLM Study / High West-wide Impact
2024EC30-1 / 10-Yr: Add transmission to BLM study / Expansion Case of High West-wide Impact Study

Appendix 2: Recommended 20-Year Study Case Priorities for 2015

Case ID / Description / Comment
2034S0 / 2034 Reference Case, V1.0 / High West-wide Impact
2034S1 / 20-Yr: SPSG Scenario 1 / High West-wide Impact
2034S2 / 20-Yr: SPSG Scenario 2 / High West-wide Impact
2034S3 / 20-Yr: SPSG Scenario 3 / High West-wide Impact
2034S4 / 20-Yr: SPSG Scenario 4 / High West-wide Impact
2034PC19 / 20-Yr: High distributed PV beyond current RPS west wide / 20-year extension of 10-year study case that can be run
2034PC20 / 20-Yr: Coal Retirement A / 20-year extension of 10-year study case that can be run
2034PC39 / 20-Yr: Water-Energy Nexus study / Extension of Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario

Appendix 3: Recommended Power Flow Model Priorities for 2015

The power flow studies shown below will require completion of Version 2.0 of the 2024 Common Case.

Case ID / Description / Comments
2024PF / 10-Yr PF: “Common Case” / High West-wide Impact
(dependent on "PCM-PFM Conversion Processes")
2024PC20-PF / 10-Yr PF: Coal Retirement A / High West-wide Impact (dependent on "2024PF")
2024PC22-PF / 10-Yr PF: Specify high renewables target based on increased RPS across multiple states (e.g., 50% increase RPS levels) / High West-wide Impact (dependent on "2024PF")
PCM-PFM Conversion Processes / Investigation in and documentation of reconciling the Common Case with Base Cases / Consistency needed between models used for planning studies

Appendix 4: Recommended Issue-Based Analyses for 2015

Description / Comment
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario / Complete additional work needed to build on the scenario narrative approved by the SPSG at its May 5, 2015 meeting. Additional activities would include a system impact analysis, study case definition and reliability risk analysis.
EPA Rule 111(d) Reliability Assessment / Reliability considerations due to CAA 111(d) rule implementation by western states’
Reliability considerations due to CAA 111(d) rule implementation by western states’ / Complete the reconciliation between power flow and production cost modeling data sets.
Planning for Uncertainty / Create a final report and issue paper on analytical work completed by Johns Hopkins University.
Flexibility Study / Create and present a final report on the flexibility study completed by E3.

Appendix 5: Studies Not Recommended as Priorities for Completion in 2015

10-Year Studies

Case ID / Description / Comment
2013PC01 / “Operating Case” / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2024RC1 / "Root Case" / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2024PC12 / 10-Yr: Increase flexibility reserves / GridView (GV) Update needed
2024PC13 / 10-Yr: Decrease flexibility reserves / GV Update needed
2024PC14 / 10-Yr: Forced outage randomness sensitivity / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2024PC15 / 10-Yr: San Onofre Gas Impact Study (SPSC Gas Stress Test) / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2024PC16 / 10-Yr: Contract Limits in 2024 Common Case / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2024PC21 / 10-Yr: Coal Retirement B / Only committing to do a single Coal Retirement set of study cases
2024PC23 / 10-Yr: Small CA RPS increase: +12,000 GWh of renewables in-state / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set[1]. WECC believes it would be necessary to complete all of the requested CA RPS Renewable Options study requests or none of them.
2024EC23-1 / 10-Yr: IID transmission expansion / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC25-1 / 10-Yr: Add HPX to PC27 / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC25-2 / 10-Yr: Revise added RE to 12,000 GWh to Colorado and Wyoming / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024PC26 / 10-Yr: Retire 1900 MW IPP coal, add 1,200 MW combined cycle plant (at IPP) / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC26-1 / 10-Yr: Add Zephyr (to IPP) and 2,200 MW of eastern Wyoming Wind / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC26-2 / 10-Yr: Add Zephyr (to IPP) and 1200 MW CAES at IPP,
12,000 GWh of eastern Wyoming Wind to PC26; remove IPP CC / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024PC27 / 10-Yr: Add 12,000 GWh wind to eastern Wyoming / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC27-1 / 10-Yr: Add Zephyr (to Eldorado Valley) project / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024PC28 / 10-Yr: Add 12,000 GWh wind to western Wyoming / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC28-1 / 10-Yr: Add TransWest Express project / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC28-2 / 10-Yr: Add TWE and Gridflex pumped storage project / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024PC29 / 10-Yr: Add 12,000 GWh wind to Montana, remove 12,000 GWh of NW RPS resources / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC29-1 / 10-Yr: Add Colstrip South transmission project / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC29-2 / 10-Yr: Add Absoroka pumped storage project / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024PC31 / 10-Yr: Add 12,000 GWh wind and solar to NM / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC31-1 / 10-Yr: Add Centennial West project / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024PC32 / 10-Yr: Add geothermal resources to Southwest or Nevada / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024EC32-1 / 10-Yr: Add Great Basin transmission project / Part of CA RPS Renewable Energy Options Set (see footnote on 2024PC23)
2024PC24 / 10-Yr: Large CA RPS increase: 40% RPS from in-state resources / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2024EC24-1 / 10-Yr: Remove Path 26 constraints in PC24 / Expansion Case of study with lower west-wide impact
2024EC24-2 / 10-Yr: Transmission expansion case based on results of E24-1 / Expansion Case of study with lower west-wide impact
2024PC33 / 10-Yr: Copper sheet study / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2024PC39 / 10-Yr: Water-Energy Nexus study / Water-Energy-Climate study will be a 20-year study

20-Year Studies

Case ID / Description / Comment
2034S5 / 20-Yr: Drought Study with High Renewables / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2034PC34 / 20-Yr: Value of Transmission / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2034PC35 / 20-Yr: SPSC single-variant placeholder / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2034PC36 / 20-Yr: SPSC single-variant placeholder / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2034PC37 / 20-Yr: SPSC single-variant placeholder / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2034PC38 / 20-Yr: SPSC single-variant placeholder / Lower West-wide impact/benefit compared to other studies
2034PC21 / 20-Yr: Coal Retirement B / Only committing to do a single Coal Retirement set of study cases
2034PC22 / 20-Yr: Specify high renewables target based on increased RPS across multiple states (e.g., 50% increase RPS levels) / 20-year extension of 10-year study case that is lower priority
2034PC24 / 20-Yr: Large CA RPS increase: 40% RPS from in-state resources / 20-year extension of 10-year study case that is lower priority

PFM Studies

Case ID / Description / Comment
2024PC21-PF / 10-Yr PF: Coal Retirement B / Only committing to do a single set of Coal Retirement study cases

[1] The California Renewable Portfolio Standard (CA RPS) Options Set includes several different study cases that have been requested by multiple stakeholders. WECC believes that it would be necessary to either complete all of the requested studies or defer all of them. Any attempt to select some of the requested CA RPS studies but not others would demonstrate preference for some requestors over others