Reliability Planning Priorities 20151

Reliability Planning Priorities 20151

Background

In February, 2015, TEPPC approved a “hybrid” approach to managing the planning workload and reporting on analytical results in 2015. The primary elements of this approach are:

• Maintaining a public data base of data and models;
• Managing the Interconnection-wide planning process;
• Completing technical and economic analyses and reports; and
• Preparing a bi- or triennial Interconnection-wide transmission report.

Each of these components contains many specific work activities. For example, the public data base contains not only many separate data bases such as the 2024 Common Case and the 2034 Reference Case, but also updated versions of each data base. And, the potential technical and economic analyses include uncompleted study cases from previous study programs, current study case requests and analyses of current planning and reliability issues.

The hybrid reporting approach approved by TEPPC allows greater flexibility in scheduling and completing items included in the TEPPC Work Plan. With the decision not to prepare a comprehensive Interconnection-wide transmission plan in 2015, similar to the Plan produced in 2013, WECC’s staff and stakeholders can vary from the timeline used in previous planning cycles. However, with increased flexibility comes the responsibility to plan and communicate schedules for completing priority work products.

2015 As a Transition Year

TEPPC was created in 2005 and, since then, has been leading transmission expansion planning activities in the Western Interconnection. Planning activities since 2005 have focused around a two-year planning cycle, a structure emphasized and expanded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) grant that funded new activities and tools from 2010 through 2014. However, many aspects of the planning process have changed in the past 12 months or so:

• TEPPC approved a new reporting process that does not include developing a comprehensive biennial transmission plan, similar to the 2013 WECC Interconnection-wide Transmission Plan.
• Stakeholders have requested that WECC staff complete multiple updates to the Common Case, rather than keeping one version of the Common Case in place for up to one year.
• Stakeholders have requested the WECC complete a “round trip” analysis to reconcile data used in power flow and production cost models.
• TEPPC and the Reliability Planning staff have begun to reconsider the business processes directed by the TEPPC Planning Protocol and other ways to organize and direct WECC’s transmission planning work.
• WECC dedicated significant resources in 2014 to completing a Preliminary Technical Report on the EPA’s Rule 111(d) and has developed a second phase of its work to consider the reliability impacts of states’ efforts to implement the rule.
• WECC has continued development of its Integrated Reliability Assurance Model (IRAM) and consideration of ways that it might impact Reliability Planning and TEPPC. This effort has included integrating WECC’s activities across programs, for example, integrating transmission expansion planning work with other planning and reliability efforts.
• Regional Planning Groups have developed their approaches to complying with FERC Order 1000 and have considered ways that WECC might be able to support their efforts.

2015 is a transition year as WECC and TEPPC evolve from the processes that served the planning process well from TEPPC’s inception through the end of the DOE grant to a future process that will implement WECC’s Integrated Reliability Assurance Model. WECC’s Reliability Planning staff has developed a suggested work plan for 2015 that will focus on completing the highest priority activities within the resources and time available. This plan is intended to be a starting point for the discussion; if other activities provide greater value to stakeholders, the Reliability Planning staff will adjust its priorities accordingly.

Current Workload Assessment

WECC’s Reliability Planning staff has determined that it is unrealistic to expect WECC staff to complete all of the studies, analyses, data base updates and issue research that have been requested. WECC has tended to accept all requested study request and to attempt to complete as many as possible in any given year. But, while all of the analyses currently on the Reliability Planning staff’s plate would contribute to an improved understanding of planning-related reliability issues and ways that they could be used in planning for the future grid in the Western Interconnection, staff simply does not have the time or resources to complete all of this work in 2015. It is necessary to define a set of work products that can reasonably be completed by the end of 2015.

Additionally, without the firm schedule dictated by previous study programs that led to creating a biennial transmission plan, it is essential to develop a schedule for the work that can be completed this year. Doing so will establish realistic expectations for both stakeholders and WECC staff.

WECC has chosen to bring these concerns to TEPPC‘s attention proactively now, rather than waiting until the end of the year, to enable TEPPC and its stakeholders to consider options for addressing them sooner rather than later and to avoid surprises at the end of 2015.

Priority Work for 2015

Reliability Planning offers this document to achieve the following goals:

1. Identify the work that will provide the most value to stakeholders and staff;
2. Prioritize Reliability Planning staff’s work to meet stakeholders expectations;
3. Identify work that cannot be completed with available resources; and
4. Create a schedule for completing the highest priority work in 2015.

This prioritization plan is built on the following assumptions:

1. WECC will consider stakeholders’ priorities for work products in establishing its work plan.
2. WECC reserves the right to manage staff’s workload.
3. Analyses that use WECC’s planning tools and models will be completed by WECC staff.
4. Completing work products included in the prioritization may depend on receiving input (e.g., data or modeling support) from entities outside of WECC; if staff does not receive this input, it may not be possible to complete the work product.
5. WECC does not intend to procure additional resources in 2015, either by contracting for outside resources or by augmenting its internal resources, to fulfil additional analytical requests from stakeholders.

There are many ways to prioritize the Reliability Planning staff’s work for 2015 to meet internal (WEC staff) and external (TEPPC and its stakeholders’) needs. WECC will collaborate with TEPPC and its stakeholders to develop a plan that will meet the needs of both internal and external constituencies.

Reliability Planning staff has considered the prioritization criteria listed in the TEPPC Planning Protocol as a starting point for recommending work priorities. It has applied those criteria, along with the following considerations, to identify its recommended priorities for work to be completed in 2015:

• Study cases that are focused on identifying impacts across the entire Western Interconnection (as compared to those that would examine a smaller portion of the Western Interconnection).
• Work that provides significant value to the broadest cross section of stakeholders.
• Work that is already in progress.
• Analyses and study cases that support other planning work already in progress (e.g., SPSG scenarios).
• Work that supports one or more of the reliability issues identified in WECC’s Integrated Reliability Assurance Model (IRAM).

WECC’s goal is to develop a recommended portfolio of work products that maintains WECC’s integrity and reputation. It is important to recognize limitations on WECC’s resources to complete the many work products currently underway or proposed for 2015. It is equally important to recognize that WECC’s decisions about which projects to complete and which to defer will affect stakeholders’ perceptions of the organization. WECC’s goal is to find the most acceptable balance between identifying work that it can reasonably complete by the end of the year and fulfilling commitments that it has made over the course of the most recent planning cycles.

WECC has not made final decisions about the planning work on which it will focus. Rather, it plans to discuss work priorities with TEPPC and its stakeholders in the next few weeks to attempt to reach consensus on the highest-priority work. As a starting point for discussion, WECC’s Reliability Planning staff recommends the following work priorities for the balance of 2015. Staff believes that this is a realistic portfolio of work products that it can complete in 2015:

1. 2024 Common Case: System Adequacy Planning (SAP) staff has posted several versions of the 2024 Common Case on the WECC web site, the most recent of which is version 1.5. Staff proposes to complete Version 2.0 as the next and only planned release of the 2024 Common Case in 2015, the main goal of which will be to complete the Production Cost to/from Power Flow Model Conversion investigation and documentation.
2. 2034 Reference Case: This will be completed and posted on the WECC web site for stakeholders’ use.
3. Priority 10-Year Study Cases from 2014 TEPPC Study Program: WECC’s System Adequacy Planning (SAP) staff has not yet completed 10-year study cases that were included in the 2014 TEPPC Study Program. Many of these are in progress and some are nearing completion. Appendix 1 shows SAP staff’s recommended priorities for 10-year study cases to be completed in 2015, based on their perceived value to stakeholders and the ability of SAP staff to complete them in 2015.
4. Priority 20-year Study Cases from 2014 TEPPC Study Program: Similar to the 10-year study cases, SAP staff has not yet completed 20-year study cases that were included in the 2014 TEPPC Study Program. Appendix 2 shows SAP staff’s recommended priorities for 20-year studies to be completed in 2015.
5. Priority Power Flow Model (PFM) Study Cases. SAP staff has received requests to complete study cases using the power flow model (PFM). Those recommended for completion in 2015 are shown in Appendix 3.
6. Priority Issue-Based Analyses: Among the many issues that could affect the reliability of the Western Interconnection, some will be higher priorities during 2015. Recommended issue-based analysis priorities are shown in Appendix 4.
7. Prepare 2015 Year-End Interconnection-wide Summary Reliability Planning Report. The report would include themes identified from other analyses during 2015, reports on reliability issues investigated during 2015, summaries of regional planning activities and any appropriate findings or recommendations.
8. Begin planning for 2016. This would include creating an approach for developing the 2026 Common Case and revisions, the 2016 TEPPC Study Program and the 2016 TEPPC Work Plan and revising the TEPPC Planning Protocol.

By defining work to be completed in 2015, WECC and its stakeholders will also define work that is not likely to be completed in 2015. Work that is not included in the prioritization suggested above and that likely would not be completed in 2015 includes:

1. 10-year study cases from the 2014 TEPPC Study Program that are not identified in Appendix 1 below;
2. 20-year study cases from the 2014 TEPPC Study Program that are not identified in Appendix 2 below;
3. Completion of a 2036 Reference Case; and
4. Completion of 10-year and 20-year study cases included in the 2015 TEPPC Study Program. These studies would depend on completing the 2026 Reference Case.

Stakeholders and WECC staff have dedicated significant work during 2015 to creating and revising the 2015 Study Program and preparing it for TEPPC’s consideration. While the study cases included in the 2015 Study Program would not be completed during 2015 under this proposal, the work completed to date would still be valuable. The 2015 Study Program would be used as a starting point for defining work to be completed in 2016.

Appendix 5 shows the requested study cases from the 2014 TEPPC Study Program that would not be completed in 2015, based on Reliability Planning staff’s recommended priorities.

Proposed Timeline

As a starting point for discussion, Reliability Planning offers the following high-level timeline for the remainder of 2015:

Future Actions

As stated previously, this report is intended to apply only to 2015 as a transition year. TEPPC and Reliability Planning will need to consider many important questions to provide guidance for future work plans including:

• How should the TEPPC Planning Protocol be designed to provide the most useful guidance to WECC’s transmission planning activities?
• Should TEPPC continue to implement a biennial planning cycle or would a different approach, e.g., an annual study cycle with bi- or triennial Interconnection-wide reports, be more useful?
• Would a shorter open season (e.g., one month) be more useful?
• Should the Common Case be updated regularly throughout the year or should it be limited to one or two versions each year?
• Which of the many planning analyses and reports will be most useful to stakeholders in the long run?
• How can TEPPC work more effectively with Regional Planning Groups, the Planning Coordination Committee and NERC to avoid duplication of efforts?

Reliability Planning will work with TEPPC stakeholders to develop a transmission planning process that will meet these and other needs.

Reliability Planning Priorities 20151

Appendix 1: Recommended 10-Year Study Case Priorities for 2015

The production cost studies shown below will be run on version 1.5 of the 2024 Common Case:

Appendix 2: Recommended 20-Year Study Case Priorities for 2015

Appendix 3: Recommended Power Flow Model Priorities for 2015

The power flow studies shown below will require completion of Version 2.0 of the 2024 Common Case.

Appendix 4: Recommended Issue-Based Analyses for 2015

Appendix 5: Studies Not Recommended as Priorities for Completion in 2015

10-Year Studies

20-Year Studies

PFM Studies

[1] The California Renewable Portfolio Standard (CA RPS) Options Set includes several different study cases that have been requested by multiple stakeholders. WECC believes that it would be necessary to either complete all of the requested studies or defer all of them. Any attempt to select some of the requested CA RPS studies but not others would demonstrate preference for some requestors over others