Recyclers for Agricultural, Forest & Urban Waste By-Products Since 1990
BIOMASS FUEL SURVEY FOR
Tracy Desalination and Green Energy Project
TRACY, CALIFORNIA
Prepared for:
Combined Solar Technologies, Inc.
860 Kennedy Place
Tracy, CA 95377
Prepared by:
Agra Trading, LLC
60 Independence Circle, Suite 203
Chico, CA 95973
July 26, 2011
1
INTRODUCTON & BACKGROUND
Combined Solar Technologies, Inc. (CST) is interested in the development of a biomass fired evaporator/power plant to be located near Tracy, California. An abundant, economical woody biomass fuel supply is critical to the successful operation of such a facility. Therefore, CST has requested Agra Trading, LLC (Agra) to conduct a Fuel Availability Study to determine the practically available woody biomass for this project. Utilizing a variety of data sources, including proprietary information pertaining to existing woody biomass markets, Agra has prepared the following biomass fuel report.
Over the past two and a half decades biomass energy development in California has experienced a dramatic rise and fall and most recently a resurgence. Starting with the energy crisis of the 1970’s and passage of the Public Utility Regulatory Power Act (PURPA) in 1978, Independent Power Producers began development of biomass-fired power plants throughout California. Incentivized by generous power purchase contracts known as a Standard Offer No. 4 (SO4), dozens of biomass-fired power plants were constructed. Over a 10-year period more than 850 MW of biomass-fired energy was installed in the state.
The initial focus of much of this biomass energy development was the utilization of forest-derived fuel sources. However developers quickly moved into other readily available, lower cost fuel types including agricultural by-products and urban and industrial wood waste. By the early 1990’s it became apparent that the industry had overbuilt capacity and that low cost biomass fuel supplies were dwindling and fuel prices began to escalate. In the mid 1990’s local utilities began to offer SO4 contract buyouts to many of these biomass developers, primarily as a cost reduction strategy. By 1995, 15 biomass power plants representing approximately 500 MW had been closed through sales or buyout of their SO4 contracts.
In recent years with the passage of California’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and with the passage of AB32 to reduce Green House Gas (GHG), renewed interest in biomass-fired power plant development has occurred. Starting in 2002 and accelerated in 2006, California’s RPS was considered one of the most ambitious renewable energy standards in the country. These regulations require investor-owned utilities (IOU) to increase procurement from eligible renewable energy resources to 20%by 2010. In April 2011, California Governor Jerry Brown signed into law one of the most ambitious renewable standards in the world, increasing California’s renewables to 33% by 2020.
In addition to this legislation, California also passed SB1368 in 2006. This legislation bans the state’s utilities from not only purchasing electric from coal-fired power plants, it also bans them from even investing in traditional coal-fired plants. This legislation essentially shuts down coal-fired power plants in the state.
The end result of all this energy related legislation has been a renewed interest in biomass-fired renewable energy power plants. In fact several of the plants previously closed through the buyout of their SO4 contracts are scheduled for reopening. In addition at least 3 coal-fired power plants in the state have begun efforts to repower using biomass fuel.
These developments would appear to provide a bright future for renewable energy in California.
BIOMASS FUEL SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Biomass Fuel Supply Study Area
Based on Agra’s experience handling and transporting biomass fuel as well as a thorough knowledge of the fuel supplies in this area, it was felt that a reasonable supply radius of 50 miles is appropriate for this assessment. Figure 1 below shows a map of this Fuel Supply Study Area (FSSA). Note that the area within the 50-mile radius of Tracy includes 13 counties or portions thereof.
Figure 1. Tracy Site Fuel Supply Study Area (FSSA)
Wood Waste Streams
In estimating the amount of biomass fuel available to the CST project within the FSSA, Agra reviewed four distinct biomass fuel sources: urban/industrial wood waste, tree service debris, orchard removals and prunings, and agricultural by-products such as nutshells and pits.
Urban/Industrial Wood Waste
Based upon Agra’s experience with wood waste generation, processing and procurement it is estimated that approximately 10.5% of the solid waste stream generated in the San Francisco Bay Area is woody debris. For that portion of each county within the 50-mile radius of the facility, Agra estimated the total solid waste generated and the total woody debris generated. Table 1 shows a breakdown for the estimated urban/industrial wood waste.
Table 1. Urban/Industrial Wood Waste Availability Within the FSSA
County
/Population
/Total Waste
/Total Wood
/Total Wood
(2010)[1]
/Generated (GT)
/Generated (GT)
/Generated (BDT)[2]
Alameda / 1,510,271 / 3,169,681 / 332,817 / 266,254Calaveras (15%)* / 6,837 / 14,349 / 1,507 / 1,206
Contra Costa / 1,049,025 / 2,201,641 / 231,172 / 184,938
Merced (40%) / 102,317 / 214,738 / 22,547 / 18,038
Sacramento (30%) / 425,636 / 893,304 / 93,797 / 75,038
San Benito (10%) / 5,527 / 11,600 / 1,218 / 974
San Francisco / 805,235 / 1,689,987 / 177,449 / 141,959
San Joaquin / 685,306 / 1,438,286 / 151,020 / 120,816
San Mateo / 718,451 / 1,507,849 / 158,324 / 126,659
Santa Clara / 1,781,642 / 3,739,221 / 392,618 / 314,094
Santa Cruz (40%) / 104,953 / 220,270 / 23,128 / 18,503
Solano (80%) / 330,675 / 694,004 / 72,870 / 58,296
Stanislaus (90%) / 463,008 / 971,738 / 102,032 / 81,626
TOTAL / 7,988,883 / 16,766,668 / 1,760,500 / 1,408,400
*Note: The percentages indicate that portion of the county estimated to be within the Fuel Supply Study Area.
Based on this assessment, Agra estimates that there are approximately 1,408,400 BDT of urban/industrial wood waste in the FSSA. It should be noted that in recent years due to the economic recession there has been a significant drop off in wood waste generation in the FSSA. Agra estimates that current waste generation is off by approximately 30% resulting in a reduction of available wood waste of 422,520 BDT. There is some concern that it may take years for these wood waste volumes to return to past levels.
In addition a portion of this wood waste currently is disposed of as Alternative Daily Cover (ADC). Under California regulation landfills are allowed to use a portion of this wood waste to cover the active face of the landfill every 24 hours. Based on data collected by the California Integrated Waste Management Board (CIWMB)[3] Agra estimated the amount of wood waste currently disposed of as ADC within the FSSA. Table 2 provides a breakdown of this volume.
Table 2. Volume of Green Waste and C&D Waste Used as ADC Within the FSSA
County / Green Waste (GT) / Green Waste (BDT) / C&D (GT) / C&D (BDT)Alameda / 8,188 / 5,732 / 9,223 / 7,378
Calaveras (15%) / 385 / 270 / NA / NA
Contra Costa / 76,370 / 53,459 / 30,182 / 24,146
Merced (40%) / 1,959 / 1,371 / 458 / 366
Sacramento (30%) / 12,723 / 8,906 / 14,270 / 11,416
San Benito (10%) / NA / NA / NA / NA
San Francisco / 20,059 / 14,041 / 3,787 / 3,030
San Joaquin / 33,945 / 23,762 / 1,033 / 826
San Mateo / 28,327 / 19,829 / 15,081 / 12,065
Santa Clara / 2,777 / 1,944 / 81,913 / 65,530
Santa Cruz (40%) / NA / NA / 2,294 / 1,835
Solano (80%) / 16,443 / 11,510 / 3,503 / 2,802
Stanislaus (90%) / NA / NA / NA / NA
TOTAL / 201,176 / 140,824 / 161,744 / 129,394
Agra estimates that of this volume of green waste approximately 25% would be considered suitable for use as biomass fuel this equates to approximately 35,206 BDT of woody biomass used as ADC within the FSSA. Likewise Agra estimates that approximately 14% of the C&D waste would be suitable for use as biomass fuel, this equates to 18,115 BDT. Combining these totals Agra estimates that approximately 53,321 BDT of woody biomass are used as ADC within the FSSA.
Removing this ADC volume and reducing the generation by 30% results in an estimated volume of urban/industrial wood waste of approximately 932,559 BDT of urban/industrial wood waste available within the FSSA.
Tree Service Debris
In addition to urban/industrial wood waste, a portion of the tree trimmings generated by tree service companies, and power utilities can be processed and utilized as biomass fuel. Based on Agra’s experience and research, it is estimated that approximately 100 dry pounds of tree trimmings suitable for biomass fuel is generated on an annual per capita basis. Agra estimates that approximately 65% of this wood is actually recoverable for biomass fuel. The remainder is wood waste that is contaminated or so commingled with other waste that it is not economic to separate and process. Table 3 below summarizes this tree service debris data.
Table 3. Tree Service Debris Generated Within the FSSA
2010 Population for Fuel Supply Study Area / Total Tree Service Debris (BDT) / Total Recoverable Tree Service Debris (BDT)7,988,883 / 399,444 / 259,639
Agricultural Orchard Removals and Prunings
The San Joaquin Valley of California is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. An important source of biomass fuel is the wood waste generated from the removal of mature or unproductive fruit and nut orchards. Table 4 below provides a breakdown of the principle fruit and nut crop acreage within the FSSA.
Table 4. Fruit and Nut Orchard Acreage Within the FSSA
County
/Almond
Acres /Walnut
Acres
/Pistachio
Acres /Apricot
Acres /Peach
Acres /Cherry
Acres /Grape
Acres /Apple
Acres /Other
Acres
Alameda / - / - / - / - / - / - / 2,410 / - / 116Calaveras (15%) / - / 120 / - / - / - / - / 120 / - / 21
Contra Costa / - / 390 / - / 470 / 134 / 369 / 1,930 / - / 438
Merced (40%) / 37,854 / 2,245 / 1,764 / 323 / 1,834 / - / 4,754 / - / 2,114
Sacramento (30%) / - / - / - / - / - / 370 / 7,533 / 111 / 2,054
San Benito (10%) / - / 174 / - / 63 / - / 56 / 381 / 34 / 44
San Francisco / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / - / -
San Joaquin / 47,800 / 48,700 / - / 624 / 2,140 / 17,853 / 91,800 / 2,900 / 4,315
San Mateo / - / - / - / - / - / - / 86 / - / 30
Santa Clara / - / 185 / - / 230 / - / 941 / 1,516 / - / 164
Santa Cruz (40%) / - / - / - / - / - / - / 252 / 899 / 122
Solano (80%) / 2,658 / 6,441 / 11 / 40 / 112 / 61 / 2,993 / 117 / 1,460
Stanislaus (90%) / 120,603 / 26,665 / - / 3,986 / 7,089 / 2,299 / 9,542 / 726 / 1,750
TOTAL
/ 208,915 / 84,920 / 1,775 / 5,736 / 11,309 / 21,949 / 123,317 / 4,787 / 12,628As this data indicates, the predominate orchard crops in the FSSA are the nut crops of almond and walnut. Based on Agra’s experience these nut crops have traditional had a replacement/removal rate of approximately 4% of the acreage per year. The typical removal volume for a mature almond or walnut orchard is approximately 20 BDT per acre. Based on these estimates Agra calculated that approximately 11,753 acres of nut orchards are available for removal within the FSSA on an annual basis. This results in approximately 235,060 BDT of nut orchard removals available each year in the FSSA. The nut crops, particularly almond, are some of the most desirable species for agricultural derived biomass fuel. The almond tends to be hard and generally produces a good quality fuel when processed, whereas walnut tends to produce a more stringy and dusty fuel. Agra estimates that approximately 90% of this volume would be practically available as biomass fuel.
The stone fruit markets have not been as strong as the nut markets and consequently there has been an accelerated removal rate for several fruits including apricots, peaches and apples. Agra estimated the removal rates for these orchards at 6% per year. These fruit orchards tend to generate less volume per acre than the nut orchards. Agra estimates that approximately 15 BDT per acre are produced from the fruit orchard removals. Based on these estimates Agra has calculated that approximately 3,385 acres of fruit orchards are available for removal in the FSSA on an annual basis. This results in approximately 50,775 BDT of fruit orchard removals available each year. Agra estimates that 90% of this volume would be practically available as biomass fuel.
Wine grape acreage is significant in the FSSA, although raisin and table grape acreage has been reduced through removals. Presently only a limited volume of vineyard removals are processed into fuel. Vineyards tend to be problematic as a fuel source for a number of reasons including wire trellising, metal grape stakes and the presence of pressure-treated wooden grape stakes. In addition, the low volumes per acre and the fact that growers can still open burn this material make vineyards removals a limited fuel supply at this time. While there were provisions in SB705[4] to ban open burning of vineyard removals beginning in 2010, this statue has been amended and growers are now allowed to burn vineyards at least until 2013 when new regulations are due to take effect. After that time, Agra believes that new and innovative techniques will be developed to address vineyard removals on a larger scale. Based on Agra’s experience with limited amounts of vineyard removals it is estimated that approximately 6 BDT per acre are generated by the removal of a mature vineyard. Furthermore Agra has calculated that approximately 3% of the vineyards acres are removed annually within the FSSA. This results in approximately 3,700 acres of vineyards and 22,200 BDT of biomass fuel. Agra estimates that 90% of this volume would be practically available for fuel.
In addition to orchard removals, there are also orchard prunings generated each year. While the average volume of prunings varies by orchard type, Agra has estimated that on average approximately 0.5 BDT per acre per year is generated. Of this amount, Agra believes that only the prunings from the 295,610 acres of nut crops would be suitable for biomass fuel. At 0.5 BDT per acre, this results in approximately 147,805 BDT per year of biomass fuel available from these prunings. At present there are a limited number of operators actively engaged in pruning collection and processing. The low volumes per acre, the short operating season and the specialized processing equipment needed tend to make this a challenging fuel source. In addition the stringy nature of this fuel tend to make it less desirable to handle at the power plants. Agra estimates that only about 50% of this volume would be practically available for biomass fuel and then only after a significant infrastructure development effort.
Table 5 summarizes the practically available biomass fuel from orchard removals and orchard prunings.
Table 5. Orchard Removals and Prunings Practically Available Within the FSSA.
Fuel Type / Est. Annual Volume Practically Available (BDT)Orchard Removals / 277,232
Orchard Prunings / 73,903*
TOTAL / 351,135
* At present only an estimated 3,000 BDT of prunings are actually produced in the FSSA.
Pits, Nutshell and Grape Pomace
In addition to the agricultural fuels described above, there are also numerous sources of agricultural by-products such as fruit pits, nutshells and grape pomace generated annually in the FSSA. Based on Agra’s experience dealing in these markets as well as data developed by the California Energy Commission[5] and the individual county Agricultural Commissioners Offices, the following volumes of agricultural by-products were estimated. Tables 6, 7 and 8 provide a summary of the estimated volumes of agricultural by-products generated in the FSSA.
Table 6. Fruit and Olive Pits Within the FSSA
County
/Fruit Pits (BDT)
/Olive Pits (BDT)
/Total (BDT)
Alameda / 0 / 0 / 0Calaveras (15%) / 0 / 0 / 0
Contra Costa / 521 / 0 / 521
Merced (40%) / 1,023 / 0 / 1,023
Sacramento (30%) / 0 / 0 / 0
San Benito (10%) / 0 / 0 / 0
San Francisco / 0 / 0 / 0
San Joaquin / 2,358 / 10,000* / 12,358
San Mateo / 0 / 0 / 0
Santa Clara / 399 / 0 / 399
Santa Cruz (40%) / 0 / 0 / 0
Solano (80%) / 0 / 0 / 0
Stanislaus (90%) / 8,635 / 0 / 8,635
Total
/ 12,936 / 10,000 / 22,936* Estimated by Agra, due to limited number of producers actual volume is proprietary.
Table 7. Almond and Walnut Shell Within the FSSA
County
/Almond Shell (BDT)
/Walnut Shell (BDT)
/Total
(BDT)Alameda / 0 / 106 / 106
Calaveras (15%) / 0 / 16 / 16
Contra Costa / 21 / 655 / 676
Merced (40%) / 26,070 / 2,146 / 28,216
Sacramento (30%) / 0 / 0 / 0
San Benito (10%) / 0 / 176 / 176
San Francisco / 0 / 0 / 0
San Joaquin / 43,710 / 37,200 / 80,910
San Mateo / 0 / 0 / 0
Santa Clara / 0 / 570 / 570
Santa Cruz (40%) / 0 / 0 / 0
Solano (80%) / 0 / 0 / 0
Stanislaus (90%) / 120,600 / 13,748 / 134,348
Total
/ 190,401 / 54,617 / 245,018Table 8. Grape Pomace* Within the FSSA
County
/Grape Pomace (BDT)
Alameda / 527Calaveras (15%) / 11
Contra Costa / 0
Merced (40%) / 5,144
Sacramento (30%) / 0
San Benito (10%) / 116
San Francisco / 0
San Joaquin / 67,900
San Mateo / 0
Santa Clara / 430
Santa Cruz (40%) / 61
Solano (80%) / 0
Stanislaus (90%) / 6,850
Total
/ 81,039* In addition to grape pomace there are also lesser amounts of olive pomace developed in the FSSA. Future expansion of olive oil production in the region will result in increased production; however at this time Agra believes most olive pomace is utilized in the animal feed market.
Based on this analysis, Agra estimates that there are over 350,000 BDT of agricultural by-products generated within the FSSA. It is important to note that while significant quantities of these by-products are produced there are also numerous well-established markets for much of this production. Specifically the animal feed and bedding markets consume a majority of this production. In recent years the grain ethanol market has placed increasing demand and price pressure on traditional animal feed grains. Agra now estimates that as much as 50% of these by-products are consumed in this market. Therefore Agra estimates that approximately 175,000 BDT of agricultural by-products would be practically available as biomass fuel.
FUEL AVAILABILITY AND PRICING
Table 9 provides a summary of the estimated biomass fuel practically available within the FSSA and the estimated delivered price range.
Table 9. Estimated Practically Available Biomass Fuel Within the FSSA
Fuel Type / Fuel Volume (BDT) / Price Range ($/BDT)Urban/Industrial / 932,559 / $18 to $39
Tree Service Debris / 259,639 / $10 to $25
Orchard Removals / 277,232 / $28 to $45
Orchard Prunings / 73,903 / $28 to $36
Pits, Shell and Grape Pomace / 150,000 / $25 to $38
TOTAL / 1,693,333
Based on this assessment, Agra estimates that the current practically available biomass fuel within this FSSA is over 1.6 million BDT. However, it should be noted that not all of this fuel would be immediately available. For example, as previously stated, in the case of orchard prunings, there is currently limited collection and processing capacity within the FSSA. In addition it is still possible to open burn vineyards in the air district, a practice that tends to be the lowest cost options available to growers. As long as the open burning option is available for prunings and vineyards, limited volumes of these fuels will be produced. Eliminating these fuel types reduces the fuel availability by over 95,000 BDT.
BIOMASS FUEL COMPETITION
As this fuel availability data indicates there is a large volume of biomass fuel material generated within this FSSA. However, there is also a significant competition for this woody biomass within this area. In addition to biomass fuel there is also demand from other higher valued markets including lawn and garden products, composite board furnish, animal bedding and feed.
Figure 2 shows a map of the existing biomass power plants currently competing for fuel in this FSSA.
Figure 2. Operating Biomass Power Plants With Overlapping Procurement Areas