Pursuit Racing with Computer Adjusted HC based on relative performance not on place.
Auto adjusting HCs for pursuit racing has been very successfully used around Australia for a number for years. In locations blessed with relatively consistent winds/conditions each week, this system had been shown to very fair and very successful in tightening up the result spread. In areas with significant variability in conditions it is less successful but has still provided sensible HCing over a series of races provided careful thought is used in setting the various parameters used for calculating the next race HCs.
So in summary, my thoughts..
o Pursuit racing uses a form of Time on Distance handicapping ie we assume a nominal time offset for each boat in the fleet over a given length course, in a particular set of wind/sea conditions.
o Once the course length is determined we then use this to establish the anticipated time for a given (usually the slowest boat) to complete the course.
o By knowing the relative speeds of the boats (ie HC) we can then establish an offset time for each boat for this course.
o So we don't have boats hanging around waiting for a start it makes sense to adjust the offsets so that the slowest boat goes at close to the zero time.
o Like all forms of Time on Distance HCing, this form of HCing comes unstuck if the course length changes or the wind/sea conditions are rather different to that assumed when the offsets were calculated.
o This not to say the HCing maths fails. It does not! It has access to correct times and AHCs on which to adjust the HC for the next race, The issue is one of perception. Place getters do not necessarily have their HC adjusted as the sailors may expect. This is simply because the offsets as based on anticipated times for a know course. Times that nature may rudely distort. Such distortions do not adversely affect the HC calcs.
o This is somewhat improved by have boats grouped into divisions of similar performance. The bigger the performance spread, the bigger the anomalies when the wind does not cooperate.
o For valid HC updates, it is important that the reference time is a good reflection of reality. If not the maths will not provide sensible HC updates and is more likely to upset sailors.
o If we allow the slowest boat/zero boats HC to alter, then the offset times of all other boats will alter (assuming estimated race time for that boat remains unchanged). This can be compensated for by altering the nominate race time for the reference/slowest boat.
o We can instead provide a phantom referenceboat with a HC a little lower than the slowest boat in the fleet. Then any change in the slowest boat’s HC don't impact on all other boat’s offsets.
o The gotcha with this approach is that you may then either end up with a negative offset for the first few boats OR a significant time delay after time zero before the first boats starts.
o Because of the variability of conditions it is possible for the first few place getters to have their next race HC undergo little change. To improve “appearances” it may be prudent to apply a small amount of “place penalty” to the first 3 place getters.
o The new facilities in TY allow you to have a fixed AHC as the reference point that providing the same outcome as the previous point.
Rod McCubbin 20091021