UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PRORAMME

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY

Proposal for Funding

Preparation of National Adaptation Program of Action

Country Name: Bangladesh

Project Title: Formulation of the Bangladesh Program of Action for Adaptation to Climate Change

GEF Implementing Agency: United Nations Development Programme

GEF Operational Focal Point: Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF)

Climate Change Focal Point: Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF)

National Executing Agency: Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF)

Country Eligibility:

(i) LDC Status Bangladesh is classified as a LDC

(ii) Date of UNFCCC Ratification 15 April 1994

GEF Financing: US$ 200,000

Government Contribution: US$ 50,000 (in-kind)

Estimated Total Budget: US$ 250,000

Estimated Starting Date: May 2003

Duration: 18 months

1.  Background

Bangladesh is a country situated on the northeastern side of South Asia bounded by India on the west and the north, by India and Myanmar on the east and by the Bay of Bengal on the South (see Map). The country has an area of 147,570 km2 and bounded by 4,685 kms of land, river and sea lines. It is divided into 3 broad categories of physiographic regions: tertiary hills, pleistocene uplands and recent alluvial plains. The land surface in most part of the country is very flat because of its deltaic location with most elevations less than 10 m above sea level.

Numerous rivers, small channels and backwaters intersect the country’s plain lands. Much of the present plain was originally an estuary, which was filled up by the combined drainage system of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers (total length of drainage channel is estimated at more than 200,000 kms). These rivers continuously enrich the alluvial soil of the plains with heavy silt deposits. Thus, the rivers are of utmost importance in developing the country’s vast flat alluvial land and in directly and indirectly influencing the economic activities through their impact on agriculture.

The country has a typical monsoon climate as the monsoon wind, to a large extent, determines the country’s rainfall and temperature. There are 3 distinct seasons: winter (November to February), which is relatively cool, sunny and dry; summer (March to May), which is very hot and sunny with occasional showers; and, rainy season (June to October), which warm, cloudy and wet. The humidity is generally high throughout the year, as even in the winter months it varies from about 70 to 85%. Average annual temperature ranges from 19oC to 29oC. In summer months, the maximum temperature ranges from 30oC to 36oC. April is the hottest month. Annual rainfall varies from 1,429 to 4,338 mm. On average, the country receives about 2,500 mm of rainfall per year.

Geographically, the country is located in one of the most hazard-prone areas of the world. Several types of natural calamities such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, monsoon floods and river erosions occur frequently and often affect the country adversely. The country is a land of water, with its 230 rivers extending to a total length of 24,140 kms. Flood (i.e., flash, monsoon, rain and coastal floods) affects 80% of the land area.

The latest population census reveals a population of 123.1 million in the country in 2001, with the average annual population growth rate at 1.47% (1991-2001). Population density is very high at 834 persons/km2. Over 76% of the population lives in rural areas. However, urbanization is growing fast at 6-7% per year. The country is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world with a 1999 GNP/capita of US$370 (compared to US$ 581 in South Asia). Agriculture, which accounts for 25.3% of GDP, is particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Several studies have been made in the late 80s and during the 90s to assess the country’s vulnerability to climate change and climate variability, and proposed measures to adapt to such phenomena. These findings include the following:

·  Temperature – The observed temperature in the country has so far shown a small but discernable downward trend in the past 4 decades. Predictions of average warming of 1.5oC by 2070 will be of great significance. Except for the northwest, in all regions in the country the warming will take

the mean temperature back to the level of the 50s. Highest maximum temperature will also exceed the 30-year maximum of 41oC by nearly 2.5oC.

·  Rainfall – Annual rainfall appears to be increasing at a rate of <1% per year, a trend, which if it persists will raise the average rainfall by 4% by 2010 and by 16% by 2070. Two implications of such increases will be shifting of rainfall distribution and increase run-off. The first impact will increase the probabilities of extremely wet years but will lower that of drought.

·  Water resources – These are expected to be augmented due to increased monsoon rainfall in South Asia. It will however, aggravate the problems of flood and drainage congestion. In general, a 10% increase in rainfall will increase the run-off depth by 18% and 22% depending on the region. The increased run-off depths will aggravate existing drainage problems and create new ones. As a result, the land classification by flood depth will also change, and unless ameliorative measures are taken, will change the cropping patterns by the farmers.

·  Agriculture – Climate change in Bangladesh will influence plant behaviors and productivity, particularly the staple crop – rice. Its growth rate will be affected, i.e., its capacity to assimilate carbon, water availability in the soil, temperature and light intensity will be affected. On the whole, it is difficult to speculate at the present state of knowledge as to the direction and magnitude in which rice yield will be affected as a result of climate change. With a doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, a 5% increase in agronomic potential yield is possible. But agriculture may face much of its problems due to the changes in coastal zone, particularly the potential of sea level rise.

·  Cost Zone and Sea Level Rise – Predictions have been made of a 9 cm rise along the Bangladesh coast by 2010 and a 45 cm rise by 2070. While a 9 cm rise by 2010 can be absorbed within seasonal variations, a 45 cm rise by 2070 will affect about 11% of the coastal areas and 5% of the population. Sea level rise is expected to create several second round impacts. People will move out of the affected coastal zones and urbanization will become more rapid than the present 6-7% per annum. This will create severe upward pressure on the demand for food, energy and housing. There would also be loss of agricultural land due to permanent inundation, leading to loss of output, income and employment. It will also lead to aggravation of the present biomass crisis as mangroves in coastal areas will be partially or totally lost, and loss of biodiversity will be immeasurable.

·  Economic Development – If only direct influences are considered, economic impacts at this time may not seem too large. Only about 5% of GDP maybe lost while output losses in rice production due to sea level rise may not be perceptible before 2010. By 2030, losses can become substantial in the order of 14-24% of output of affected districts. The social costs of such output losses will be very significant.

Based on the vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments that have been conducted, the country is now seriously considering anticipatory measures that will prevent or at least lessen the impacts of climate change. Climate change and its direct and indirect effects are amongst the key environmental and development issues that the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) is seriously addressing. The GoB is very much aware and concerned about environmental degradation and global warming and their detrimental effects particularly on least developed countries (LDCs) like Bangladesh. Sea level rise, which is among the real threats of climate change, is among the country’s immediate concerns. The country has endeavored to plan its development in a sustainable manner, ensuring that sound environmental assessment is an integral part of national, regional and sectoral planning exercises, and that development activities are subject to sound environmental management regimes and practices.

As part of its efforts to address climate change and related issues, the country has implemented and completed a number of activities, and has become party to many multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs). Among these is the UNFCCC, which represented one of the country’s first steps forward in terms of commitment to addressing climate change and related issues. Bangladesh is also a Party to many other UN conventions, including: (1) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification; 2) Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety; (3) Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention; and, (4) Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. In addition, a number of national environmental and related policies have been prepared and adopted by the government, to guide the implementation of initiatives that address environmental issues, including climate variability and change.

The various projects/studies in the 80s and 90s funded by the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, the Governments of US, Netherlands, etc., have brought to light the vulnerability of the country to various impacts of climate change, and have presented various measures to adapt to climate change. The government is assessing the idea of improving the resilience and preparedness through adaptive regimes.

The Initial National Communication (INC) to UNFCCC of Bangladesh has identified various sectors that are vulnerable to climate change. The INC also suggested sectoral adaptation measures, most of which constituted “no regrets” strategies. Bangladesh’s NAPA will build on these and other findings (including those in previous V&A studies) to identify and implement those adaptation activities requiring immediate and urgent action. These activities will be integrated within national and local economic and social development goals, plans and frameworks, especially in relation to rural citizens, the urban poor and other more vulnerable members and other facets of the community.

2.  Institutional Context

Various institutions (Annex 1) in the country are potential players/actors in the formulation and implementation of the country’s National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA). Although their participation in the preparation and promotion of the NAPA will be valuable, their specific levels of involvement will depend on the priority sectors and adaptation activities that will be covered in the NAPA.

The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF) is the government agency that is responsible for the planning and execution of all activities on environmental protection, preservation, and management. It is both the GEF and UNFCCC National Focal Point.

The MOEF is mandated to regulate activities affecting the conservation of the environment. This is based on a coordinated role with a wide range of other ministries whose activities are concerning the environment. It plays an advisory role in national environmental policy formulation and coordination of environment management activities, ensuring that all development projects incorporate environmental protection. The DOE plays the key role in providing technical support, undertaking relevant research in appropriate disciplines necessary for policymaking. It aims to develop and strengthen national capacity to undertake environmental research and apply relevant data and information in environment management.

All climate change issues and activities in the country are coordinated by MOEF through the DOE, in close collaboration with other relevant agencies. Implementation of adaptation activities under the NAPA will be through the MOEF, where the focal point for the UNFCCC and GEF is based. However, where technical assistance is required, DOE relies on the cooperation and support from other relevant institutions (Annex 1). In addition to other relevant government agencies, DOE also takes advantage of the growing involvement of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the private sector in its effort to spearhead all related activities of environmental concern. Among these are the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), BUET, Bangladesh Institute for Development Studies (BIDS) and the Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP). These NGOs with an environment focus continue to be involved in the implementation of government-led environment activities. Their role lies in advocacy for environmental management in areas of education and public awareness, and highlighting local environmental issues.

The NAPA formulation is part of a much-needed coordinated institutional response to climate change across the GOB. Coordination is needed for the: (1) analysis of climate data; (2) forecasting climate change; (3) assessing vulnerability to climate change; (4) developing coordinated research agendas and policies; and (5) development of guidelines for considering climate change impacts in resource and project planning. Such coordination is necessary to avoid potential duplication of effort and formulation of inconsistent or contradictory policies. A closely coordinated planning and implementation of adaptation measures in agriculture and decisions in the water and coastal resources sectors is one clear example. It is also important that the public, civil society, and the donor community remain involved in coordinated climate change planning activities. Aside from natural resource and/or environmental agencies, agencies such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should be involved, so that Bangladesh’ negotiating positions for the UNFCCC is strengthened.

Among the possible avenues for coordinating adaptation activities/programs in the country through NAPA are the following:

·  National Council on Water Resources (NWRC) – This body coordinates all water management activities and oversees the preparation and implementation of the national planning efforts, including the National Water Management Plan (NWMP). The Prime Minister heads it. To date, it has initiated putting climate change issues on its agenda.

·  National Environment Council (NEC) – This council coordinates all environmental activities and supervises the preparation and implementation of the national planning efforts, including the National Environmental Management Action Plan (NEMAP). The Prime Minister also heads it.

·  CCC has been involved in several other climate change projects, including the US Climate Change Country Study Project and the Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS). The CCC is chaired by the Minister of Environment and reports to the NEC. The members of this committee can form the core of the NAPA Team that will be established for the NAPA formulation and implementation.

·  Inter Ministerial Disaster Management Co-ordination Committee (IMDMCC) – This is the apex coordinating body for disaster management programs. The Minister for Disaster Management and Relief heads this committee.