Promoting Low Carbon Development Project
National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
SUDAN-NAMA FRAMEWORK
31 March 2015
Authors
No. / Sector / Expert’s Name / Expert’s Affiliation1 / Energy / Osama Salah Mohamed / Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity
QuosayAwad Ahmed / University of Khartoum
2 / Industrial Processes / Naeima Abdelgadir Hilal / Industrial Researches and Consultancy Centre
3 / Agriculture / SawsanKhairElsied / Range and Pasture General Directorate, Ministry of Livestock,Fisheries and Rangelands
4 / Land use change and Forestry / Salah Yousif Mohmaed / National Forest Corporation
5 / Administration and report compilation / Asia Adlan Mohamed
Rehab Ahmed Hassan
Hana Hamadalla
Axel Michaelowa
Michel Köhler
BjörnDransfeld / University of Khartoum
Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources(HCENR)
Perspectives Climate Change
Table of Contents
1Background
2Link with Sudan’s climate change policies and “Low Carbon Development Strategy”
3Methodology
4Overview of Emission Sectors and Assessment of Relevance and Mitigation Potential
4.1Agriculture Sector
4.1.1 General Information about the Sector
4.1.2Contribution of the Sector to Sustainable Development
4.1.3GHG emissions and trends
4.1.4Policies, Strategies and Plans Related to the Sector
4.1.5Relevance of the Agricultural Sector for NAMAs and Mitigation Potential
4.2Land Use Change and Forestry Sector
4.2.1General Information About the Sector
4.2.2Contribution of the Sector to Sustainable Development
4.2.3GHG Emissions and Trends
4.2.4Policies, Strategies and Plans for the Forest Sector
4.2.5Relevance of the Forestry Sector for NAMAs and Mitigation Potential
4.3Energy sector
4.3.1 General Information About the Sector
4.3.2 Contribution of the Sector to Sustainable Development
4.3.3 GHG Emissions and Trends
4.3.4 Policies, Strategies and Plans Related to the Sector
4.3.5 Relevance of the Energy Sector for NAMAs and Mitigation Potential
4.4Industrial Processes
4.4.1General Information About the Sector
4.4.2Contribution of the Sector to Sustainable Development
4.4.3GHG Emissions and Trends
4.4.4Policies, Strategies and Plans Related to the Industry Sector
4.4.5Relevance of the Industrial Sector for NAMAs and Mitigation Potential
4.5Waste Sector
4.5.1General Information About the Sector
4.5.2Contribution of the Sector to Sustainable Development
4.5.3GHG Emissions and Trends
4.5.4Policies Strategies and Plans Related to the Waste Sector
4.5.5Relevance of the waste sector for NAMAs and Mitigation Potential:
5Proposal for a Sudanese NAMA Framework
5.1Elements of the Sudanese NAMA framework
5.2Proposed NAMA Institutional framework
5.3NAMA Identification and Selection Process
5.3.1Assessment of NAMA options according to multi-criteria analysis (MCA)
5.3.2Evaluation of mitigation options and sectors under the Sudanese NAMA framework
5.3.3Identification of concrete NAMAs that achieve national development and mitigation objectives
5.4Proposed MRV System for NAMAs
5.4.1Sudanese Context
5.4.2Recommendation for setting-up the Sudanese NAMA framework MRV
6References
References for Chapter 4
Agriculture sector
Land Use Change and Forestry Sector
Energy Sector
Industrial Processes
Annex I: Sudan NAMA evaluation results
Annex II: NAMA Design Template
Annex III: Lighthouse example for NAMA development – Mexico NAMA for sustainable housing
List of Tables
Table 1: Percentage of share of major economic sectors in Sudan’s GDP 2010-2013
Table 2: Estimated livestock population (million) 2013
Table 3: GHG Emissions from Agriculture, 2000 (Gg)
Table 4: GHG emissions from LUCF, 2000 (Gg)
Table 5: GHG emissions from the energy sector, 2000 (Gg)
Table 6: GHG emissions from industrial processes, 2000 (Gg)
Table 7: GHG emissions from waste management, 2000 (Gg)
Table 8: Identified NAMAs from sector assessment
Table 9: Summary of Sudanese Development Priorities
Table 10: Assessment Criteria for Sudanese NAMA framework
Table 11: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Agriculture sector
Table 12: Main barriers for agriculture sector NAMAS
Table 13: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Land Use Change and Forestry Sector
Table 14: Main barriers for land use and forestry sector NAMAS
Table 15: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Energy Sector - Electricity Supply
Table 16: Main barriers for Energy Sector - Electricity Supply NAMAS
Table 17: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Energy Sector - Electricity Demand
Table 18: Main barriers for Energy Sector - Electricity Demand NAMAS
Table 19: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Energy Sector - Transportation
Table 20: Main barriers for transport sector NAMAS
Table 21: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Energy Sector - Households
Table 22: Main barriers for household NAMAS
Table 23: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Energy Sector - Others
Table 24: Main barriers for other energy sector NAMAS
Table 25: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Industrial Processes Sector
Table 26: Main barriers for industry sector NAMAS
Table 27: Evaluation results for NAMAs - Waste Sector
Table 28: Main barriers for waste sector NAMAS
Table 29: Ranking the Sudanese NAMA proposals under the NAMA Framework
Table 30: Selecting “Champion NAMA” for the agriculture sector
Table 31: Selecting “Champion NAMA” for the forestry sector
Table 32: Selecting “Champion NAMA” for the energy sector
Table 33: Selecting “Champion NAMA” for the industrial process sector
Table 34: Selecting “Champion NAMA” for the waste sector
Table 35: Sudanese GHG inventory data quality assessment
List of Figures
Figure 1: Interrelation of Sudanese NAMAs, NAMA Framework and LCDS (dark blue for the mitigation dimension and light blue for adaptation and vulnerability)
Figure 2: General step-by-step structure for elaborating the Sudanese LCDS and NAMA framework
Figure 3: Sudan livestock density
Figure 4: Livestock distribution
Figure 5: Breakdown of CO2eemissions associated with agricultural activities, 2000
Figure 6: Livestock population and manure production estimates, 2000
Figure 7: Sudan’s Energy Balance for the Year 2011
Figure 8: GHG emission in Million Tonne CO2 Equivalent from different energy demand sectors
Figure 9: NAMA Framework Example
Figure 10: Components of NAMA Framework
Figure 11: General NAMA framework for Sudan
Figure 12: Envisaged institutional arrangement for the Sudanese NAMA framework
Figure 13: Institutional Arrangement for Sudanese DNA serving as NAMA Unit
Figure 14: Screening process of proposed NAMA activities
Figure 15: NAMA framework MRV in the context of LCDS and individual NAMA activities
Figure 16: General approach for setting up an MRV system (suitable for individual NAMAs and the NAMA framework)
Abbreviations
BAUBusiness As Usual (scenario)
BURBiennial Update Report
CDMClean Development Mechanism
CERsCertified Emission Reductions
CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
COPConference of the Parties
DCFBDensified Complete Feed Blocks
DNADesignated National Authority
DTMRBDensified Total Mixed Ration Blocks
EIAEnvironmental Impact Assessment
FNCForest National Corporation
FRAForest Resources Assessment
GCFGreen Climate Fund
GDPGross Domestic Product
GgBillion g (=1000 t)
GHGGreenhouse Gas
HCENRHigher Council for Environment and Natural Resources
IEAInternational Energy Agency
INDCIntended National Determined Contribution
IRENAInternational Renewable Energy Agency
kWhKilowatthours
LCDS/LEDSLow Carbon/Emission Development Strategies
LDCLeast Developed Country
LPGLiquid petroleum gas
LUCFLand-use change and forestry
LULUCFLand-use, land-use change and forestry
MRVMeasurement, Reporting and Verification
NAMANationally Appropriate Mitigation Action
NCNational Communication
NGNational grid
NGONon-Governmental Organization
PVPhotovoltaics
RERenewable Energy
SIDSSmall Island Developing State
TLUTropical Livestock Unit
TNATechnical Needs Assessment
UNDPUnited Nations Development Programme
UNEPUnited Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WBWorld Bank
1Background
This document is a key deliverable of the “Promoting Low Carbon Investment Project” coordinated by the Sudan Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (HCENR) and financed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). As outlined in the documents “Methodology and technical guideline for the development of a Sudanese LCDS and NAMA Framework” (see Perspectives 2014a) and “Review of regional and international experiences in the preparation of LCDS and secondary information from development partners” (see Perspectives 2014b), the development of a Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) is recommended to be linked with a comprehensive Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) framework. Various synergies can be achieved when synchronizing the design of NAMAs in different economic sectors in a NAMA framework under a LCDS umbrella, and ideally making NAMA identification the bottom up process of elaborating the LCDS. To enable the set up of such NAMA framework, detailed information about greenhouse gas (GHG) emission characteristics of relevant economic sectors is required. Thus the National Team of the Sudan’s NAMA and LCDS Working Group provided information about emission characteristics and reduction potentials of the Sudanese economy (see chapter 4). Building on this information chapter 5 describes elements of a Sudanese NAMA Framework, such as institutional set up, MRV system and NAMA identification process. For the latter a set of 40 NAMAs has been evaluated and ranked according to the evaluation results.
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2Link with Sudan’s climate change policies and “Low Carbon Development Strategy”
Figure 1illustrates the links between the individual NAMAs, the NAMA Framework and the Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) in the Sudanese context. Because of the magnitude of the ambition and its close links to development (co)benefits, it makessense to integrate climate considerations into development planning, e.g. LCDS design.Further it reflects the related dimension of climate change for Sudan: Vulnerability to future climate impacts and potential adaptation activities to avoid severe loss and damage.
Figure 1: Interrelation of Sudanese NAMAs, NAMA Framework and LCDS (dark blue for the mitigation dimension and light blue for adaptation and vulnerability)
Source: Own illustration
While the NAMA framework describes a joint approach to identify and manage suitable mitigation activities in different economic sectors, the LCDS acts as a top-level umbrella integrating climate considerations into development planning. Because of the magnitude of the ambition and its close links to development (co)benefits, it makes sense to connect the NAMA framework to the LCDS. This has several implications regarding the methodological approach relevant for e.g. baseline determination or selection of NAMAs under the framework. Thus the NAMA framework can be seen as key element that provides consistent approaches to achieve emission reductions in several economic sectors as well as a comprehensive Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system delivering required data and information for the LCDS. The LCDS itself compares the NAMA framework results to a nation-wide baseline, overall Sudanese policy targets and other economic parameters. Vulnerability reduction and adaptation objectives can be included in the context of the LCDS leading to reflection of synergies between mitigation and adaptation on the NAMA framework level. As outlined below, a comprehensive set of cooperating institutions is well-suited to manage and operationalize both the LCDS and NAMA framework development.
On the bottom layer of the illustrated pyramid, the analysis of economic sectors reveals the potential for individual NAMAs addressing main barriers for mitigation measures. Some parameters and design features of these NAMAs will be framed in a synergetic manner in order to embed them in a joint NAMA framework that is located in the middle layer. Through highlighting the importance of sustainable co-benefits, the framework can incentivize the specific NAMAs to take into account integrative approaches. A centralized institution guarantees that these synergetic characteristics are applied. Further a centralized MRV system tracks results in a combined approach. Thus the NAMA framework can be seen as key element that provides consistent approaches to achieve emission reductions in several economic sectors as well as a comprehensive MRV system delivering required data and information for the LCDS.
To illustrate the links between LCDS and NAMAs, a good example for integrating LCDS and NAMAs is Colombia. Under the Colombian Low Carbon Development Strategy (CLCDS) sectoral and sub-sectoral action plans were elaborated, and numerous mitigation measures are being formulated as NAMAs.[1]Between 2006 and 2009, with the assistance of the World Bank, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa undertook in-depth analyses of national mitigation options, identified policy instruments to mobilise the most promising options and assessed how barriers to policy implementation could be overcome (see ESMAP, 2009). A lighthouse example for NAMA development is the sustainable housing NAMA in Mexico.[2] The aim of the NAMA is to supplement on-going initiatives for energy-efficient housing as laid out in Mexico's Special Climate Change Programme and operated by a leading national mortgage provider. The NAMA's two objectives are to extend the basic efficiency standards to the entire new housing market in Mexico and to upgrade efficiency standards to more ambitious levels. See also Annex III for a summary of the NAMA.
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3Methodology
The methodology of how to elaborate the NAMAs and their related NAMA framework follows the defined steps as outlined in “Methodology and technical guideline for the development of a Sudanese LCDS and NAMA Framework” (see Perspectives 2014a). Hereby the green coloured parts have been completed by the Sudanese NAMA Working Group, while elaboration of elements of the orange coloured steps has started by the national team in the context of this report (seeFigure 2).
Figure 2:General step-by-step structure for elaborating the Sudanese LCDSand NAMA framework
Source: Perspectives 2014a, p.4
As a prerequisite to elaborate a suitable NAMA framework these steps apply an assessment of current emissions and emission trends in the different economic sectors of Sudan. The results can be found in chapter 4.The blue coloured parts are describing core design components of the NAMA framework. Within the blue elaboration steps, the identified reduction potential and mitigation measures are framed into NAMAs, assessed according to their suitability and prioritized. Finally they are embedded in a NAMA framework including a common institutional framework and MRV system.
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4Overview of Emission Sectors and Assessment of Relevance and Mitigation Potential
4.1Agriculture Sector
4.1.1 General Information about the Sector
The agriculture sector in Sudan consists of two main components, agrarian and livestock components.The former comprises three sub-sectors of farming systems, namely irrigated agriculture, traditional rain-fed agriculture and mechanized agriculture. Livestock includes fisheries and natural rangelands, whichare estimated to be ± 48.2 million hectare, 25.7% of total country area(FAO 2012).
The agriculture sector continues to be the backbone of Sudan’s economy in terms of its contribution to GDP. The contribution of agriculture to the GDP was about 33.8% in 2013 and with 33.4% had the second rank of major economic sectors in the GDP during the period 2010-2013 (Table 1)(Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation2013).
Table 1: Percentage of share of major economic sectors in Sudan’s GDP 2010-2013
Sector / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / averageAgriculture / 32.5 / 34.1 / 33.1 / 33.8 / 33.4
Industry / 24.7 / 20.3 / 14.2 / 13.9 / 18.3
Services / 42.8 / 45.6 / 52.7 / 52.3 / 48.3
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (2013)
According to the Ministry of Information (2011) arable land is estimated as 200 million feddans (84 million ha), and irrigated cropped land is 11 million feddans (4.6 million ha). Rain-fed cropped land is 29 million feddans (12 million ha), and forests, woodlands and rangelands comprise 67 million ha (669 471 km²).Mobile forms of land use in Sudan are important not just for pastoralists but for farmers who practice traditional shiftingcultivation.
Sudan is endowed with large and diverse domesticated livestock species. There are different types and breeds of livestock, the majority of which is raised by different tribes. Various species also have different production attributes and uses, with camels providing transport in addition to milk and meat, goats providing rapid rates of post-drought herd recovery, sheep providing seasonal income opportunities related to Islamic festivals and camels and cattle providing prestige and social status in some areas (HCENR 2013a). According to the Sudan Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU)[3] in 2013, livestock population is estimated as 43.1 million.Itis distributed all over the country withsmall ruminants extending all through the country,camels concentrated in the north, and cattle in the middle to south with per capita increasing southwards (see Figure 3 and Figure 4).
The vast arid and semi-arid territories of Sudan are a valuable resource for animal production, provided that livestock can access grazing selectively. The main patterns of livestock production system are traditional production system which mainly depend on the natural pasture; semi intensive production system that mainly depend on the natural pasture and complimentary feeding practiced by sedentary or agro-pastoralists, transhumance pastoralists and an intensive commercial production system. About 90% of livestock are managed in traditional pastoral production systems that depend on rangelands comprising grasslands and shrub-lands. Nearly 80% of all rangelands are located in semi-desert and savannah ecological zones that are characterized by variable and unpredictable rainfall. There are several other agricultural activities that are common practices in Sudan, particularly field burning of agricultural residues and prescribed savannah burning.
In terms of fisheries the estimated annual catch of fresh water and marine fish is about 55,000 metric tons which is no more than 30% of the potential fish resources of the country (Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation 2013).
Table 2: Estimated livestock population (million)2013
Cattle / Sheep / Goats / Camels / Total30.0 / 39.6 / 31.0 / 4.8 / 105.3
Source: Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rangelands (2013)
Figure 3: Sudan livestock density
Source: SIFSIA-FAO-Sudan, (2012)Figure 4: Livestock distribution
Source: SIFSIA-FAO-Sudan (2012)4.1.2Contribution of the Sector to Sustainable Development
The agriculture sector is the dominant sector in the Sudanese economy, playing different important functions.Agriculture is the main source of employment and household income for about 70% of the total population. About 57% of the labour force is employed in agriculture and related activities such as agro-industries (Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation2013). Agricultural exports contribute to 80% of the non-oil exports. It also plays a vital role in the protection of the environment as the vegetation cover mitigates natural hazards effects, enhances[AM1]temperatures and sequesters GHG emissions.