PRIVILEDGED & CONFIDENTIAL

To:Center for Education Policy and Law / San Diego Union-Tribune

From:The Glover Park Group

Date:October 19, 2012

Re:Summary Analysis

The Glover Park Group designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey reached 626 registered voters(including 614likely voters)within the City of San Diego from a voter file. In addition, we interviewed 377 registered voters (374 likely voters) in the 52nd Congressional district including 40 voters who reside outside the city of San Diego. The survey was conducted from October 14-17, 2012. The margin of error for the citywide sample is +/-4%. The margin of error for the CD-52 sample is +/-5%. The margin of error of subgroups is higher due to a lower sample size.

Below is a brief summary of the survey results, followed by a more in-depth analysis.

Summary

Carl DeMaio currently leads Bob Filner 46% to 36%.

  • DeMaio has secured a significant base, while Filner has yet to secure his base of support. For example, DeMaio is getting 82% of the vote among registered Republicans, while Filner is getting just 60% of the registered Democratic vote. If Filner is able to secure a Democratic base, the race will quickly close in the final weeks.
  • This is a pattern we observed in the primary as well. DeMaio has a large and enthusiastic base of support. However, this base has yet to expand over the necessary 50% threshold.

Importantly, there is still a large bloc of undecided voters—18%.

  • A close look at the undecided vote highlights that this race isn’t over yet—the undecided voters look a lot more like Filner voters than DeMaio voters. For example, undecided voters favor Obama (58%) over Romney (20%).

Education remains a critical issue for San Diego’slikely voters (27% pick as top concern), trailing only the economy and jobs on their priority list.

  • Bob Filner has the edge among education focused voters—Filner gets 50% of the vote with this group, compared to 23% for DeMaio. This appears to be an issue he can play to his advantage over the closing weeks, but he’ll have to be careful not to upset his base.
  • Interestingly, education is the top priority for undecided voters (40% pick education as their top concern for the city). This is another sign that Filner has the potential to close the gap with these undecideds.

However, the economy remains the top priority (32%), and DeMaio has the advantage with these voters (garnering 50% of economy focused voters, to 34% for Filner).

Additionally, reforming the city’s pension system remains a top priority (20%). DeMaio is the clear choice of the voters who see pension issues as the most pressing city concern, getting 78% of the vote from these voters.

The poll shows DeMaio with a lead, but the underlying dynamics suggest the race is far from over.

Presidential Ballot

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 54 - 38 percent among likely voters in the city.

  • The president leads 57 - 38 percent among women and 62 - 31 percent among Hispanic voters. Independent voters back the President (57%) over Romney (31%) by 16 points.
  • Very few likely voters in the city of San Diego are undecided on their vote for the presidency.

We were fortunate to interview a number of likely voters immediately following the 2nd presidential of the vote from these votersred to 23% for DeMaio. gest the race is far from oversee pension issues as th stered debate. Of those that watched or listened to the debate, 55% think Obama did the best job in the debate, compared to 28% who feel Romney did the best job.

Congressional Ballot

In the 52nd Congressional district, Brian Bilbray leads Scott Peters by a margin of nine points, 47% to 38%. Thirteen percent of likely voters in this district remain undecided in their vote for Congress.

  • Bilbray leads among women (50% to 34%). Peters leads slightly among DTS voters (42% – 39%), but hampering his efforts is that one-in-five (20%) registered Democrats are undecided in their vote for Congress.

Overall, Bilbray is viewed more favorably (47%) than unfavorably (37%). Among Republicans, 77% view Bilbray favorably, compared to just 19% among Democrats.

Scott Peters on the other hand has higher negatives than his opponent, and is viewed more unfavorably (41%) than favorably (33%).

  • Petersis viewed more favorably by district Democrats (52% favorable).

Mayoral Candidate Images

Both candidates for mayor are viewed favorably, although DeMaio is slightly better known than Filner.

  • Congressman Bob Filner continues to have slightly higher negatives than Carl DeMaio (39%), but is still viewed more favorably than unfavorably (42% favorable). His negative ratings are up since May (from 28% unfavorable in May to 39% now).
  • As might be expected, Filner continues to enjoy more Democratic support (64% favorable) than Republican (just 15% favorable).
  • City Councilmember Carl DeMaio’s favorability numbers have improved. Overall, DeMaio is viewed more favorably (49%) than unfavorably (34%). His favorable numbers have jumped 11 points since May. Among Republicans, 81% view DeMaio favorably, compared to just 29% among Democrats.

Favorable or unfavorable opinion of… / October / May / March
% Favorable /
Unfavorable / % Favorable /
Unfavorable / % Favorable /
Unfavorable
Congressman Bob Filner / 42/ 39 / 38 / 28 / 41/ 27
City Councilmember Carl DeMaio / 49/ 34 / 37 / 23 / 39/ 22
Favorable opinion of… / Filner / DeMaio
October / May / March / October / May / March
% / % / % / % / % / %
Total / 42 / 38 / 41 / 49 / 37 / 39
Party Registration
Democrat / 64 / 56 / 54 / 29 / 26 / 24
Republican / 15 / 25 / 27 / 81 / 54 / 60
DTS/Other / 41 / 27 / 38 / 45 / 35 / 35
Vote History
Hardcore / 46 / 49 / 46 / 55 / 46 / 51
Region
West (1, 2) / 41 / 31 / 38 / 51 / 33 / 33
North Central (5, 6, 7) / 31 / 39 / 35 / 58 / 45 / 49
South Central (3, 4, 8, 9) / 54 / 42 / 50 / 41 / 33 / 33

Political Context

The race culminates with the outgoing mayor still very popular. The majority of likely voters hold a favorable view of Mayor Jerry Sanders.

  • The mayor’s favorability transcends party lines, with 74% or Republicans, 62% of Democrats and 54% of DTS voters viewing him favorably.

While Sanders is viewed favorably, the majority of voters (50%) would like to see the next mayor take the city in a new direction. Three in ten (30%) likely voters would like the next mayor to continue Sanders’ policies (20% aren’t sure).

  • DeMaio is currently winning the vote who want to continue Sanders’ policies (54% to 31% for Filner).
  • Voters looking for a new direction are pretty evenly split (45% DeMaio to 43% Filner).
  • Undecided voters tend to favor taking the city in a new direction by 11-points.

The economy and jobs (32%) remains the top concern for likely voters, followed by education (27%).

  • Reforming the city’s pension plan (20%) forms a second tier of concerns.

Education continues to be the top issue for those under the age of 40, women, and lower income voters.

  • It is also a top concern for registered Democrats, and Obama/Filner supporters. It is also the top concern among those undecided on their mayoral vote.
  • Although not the top issue for them overall, reforming the city’s pension plan is of greater concern to men, registered Republicans, and Romney/DeMaio voters than for other voters.

Issue of MOST concern… / Economy and Jobs / Education / Reforming the city’s pension plan
Total / 32% / 27% / 20%
Gender
Male / 31% / 27% / 23%
Female / 33% / 27% / 17%
Age
Under 40 / 29% / 38% / 15%
40-49 / 32% / 33% / 18%
50-64 / 35% / 22% / 21%
65+ / 32% / 16% / 23%
Party Registration
Democrat / 31% / 36% / 9%
Republican / 36% / 10% / 31%
DTS/Other / 29% / 32% / 22%
Region
West (1, 2) / 27% / 26% / 26%
North Central (5, 6, 7) / 34% / 24% / 21%
South Central (3, 4, 8, 9) / 34% / 29% / 15%
HH Income
<$50K / 34% / 36% / 9%
$50-99K / 28% / 26% / 25%
$100K+ / 38% / 21% / 20%
Presidential Ballot
Obama / 30% / 36% / 12%
Romney / 35% / 10% / 34%
Mayoral Ballot
DeMaio / 35% / 13% / 33%
Filner / 31% / 37% / 8%
Undecided/DK / 30% / 40% / 9%

Mayoral Ballot

With less than 3 weeks till the election, Carl DeMaio leads Bob Filner 46% to 36% among likely voters.

Among the most likely (hardcore) voters, DeMaio enjoys a slightly larger lead, with 51% of the vote, to 39% for Filner. There is no noticeable difference in support between those who intend to vote in-person on election day to those who intend to vote early or by absentee.

  • One thing that bodes well for DeMaio is that he enjoys a large lead (50-38) among those likely voters who indicate they vote on everything on the ballot. His lead is smaller among those that only vote on most items on the ballot or only those at the top of the ticket. More than a quarter (28%) of these voters who don’t vote for everything are undecided in their vote for mayor. Given Obama’s commanding lead in San Diego, getting these voters to vote all the way down the ballot will be critical for Filner in closing the gap.

DeMaio’s support comes from registered Republicans, high-income earners, and those whose top issue is reforming the city’s pension plan. He also gains support from hardcore voters, those who want the next mayor to continue Mayor Sander’s policies and those living in city council districts 5, 6, and 7.

Filner’s support comes from registered Democrats,middle-income voters, and those whose top issue is education. He also gains support from seniors, those that want the next mayor to take the city in a new direction and those living in the central and southern parts of the city (districts 3, 4, 8, and 9).

Likely voters who voted for Bonnie Dumanis and Nathan Fletcher split their vote in the general election.

  • Forty-three percent (43%) of Dumanis voters support Filner compared to 36% who Support DeMaio.
  • Forty-one percent of Fletcher voters support DeMaio compared to 39% who support Filner.
  • One-in-five voters who voted for Dumanis and Fletcher in the primary are undecided on who they’ll vote for mayor.

As the race nears the end, there are still a large numberof undecided voters (18%) up for grabs.

  • Those more likely to be undecided include those under the age of 40, registered DTS/Other, did not vote in the primary and those who feel education is the top issue facing the city.
  • It is noticeable that undecided voters favor Obama over Romney by a wide margin (58-20).

Vote for Mayor… / DeMaio / Filner / Undecided / DK
Total / 46% / 36% / 18%
Gender
Male / 51% / 34% / 16%
Female / 42% / 38% / 21%
Age
Under 40 / 46% / 31% / 23%
40-49 / 45% / 37% / 18%
50-64 / 48% / 36% / 16%
65+ / 45% / 41% / 15%
Income
<$50K / 44% / 38% / 19%
$50-99K / 41% / 45% / 15%
$100K+ / 55% / 32% / 13%
Party Registration
Democrat / 22% / 60% / 18%
Republican / 82% / 7% / 12%
DTS/Other / 43% / 32% / 26%
Vote History
Hardcore / 51% / 39% / 10%
When Vote
In person / 44% / 35% / 21%
Early/absentee / 47% / 38% / 15%
Voter Type
Vote for every race / 50% / 38% / 12%
Vote for most/top ticket / 39% / 33% / 28%
Voted in Primary
Yes / 48% / 39% / 13%
No / 40% / 27% / 33%
Primary Vote
DeMaio / 97% / 2% / 1%
Filner / 5% / 92% / 3%
Dumanis / 36% / 43% / 21%
Fletcher / 41% / 39% / 20%
Region
West (1, 2) / 46% / 33% / 20%
North Central (5, 6, 7) / 57% / 23% / 21%
South Central (3, 4, 8, 9) / 37% / 49% / 15%
Top Issue
Economy And Jobs / 50% / 34% / 17%
Education / 23% / 50% / 27%
Reforming Pensions / 78% / 14% / 8%
Next Mayor
Continue policies / 54% / 31% / 15%
New Direction / 45% / 43% / 13%

Better on the Issues

The challenge for Filner is that he’s yet to break out on any issue other than education. Likely voters divide essentially evenlyon which candidate they think would better handle improving San Diego’s schools, Filner(39%) or DeMaio (35%).

The two candidates are also essentially tied (40-37) on which candidate would improve city services.

DeMaio has the advantage on other issues. DeMaiohas a 10 point lead, in being better able to foster growth and bring jobs to the city, and leads by 18 points in being better able to handle the city’s finances. DeMaio also enjoys large leads over Filner in being better on implementing the voter approved city employee pension changes (+23) and keeping taxes low (+29).

Better able to handle… / Carl DeMaio / Bob Filner / Difference
Keeping taxes low / 51% / 22% / DeMaio +29
Implementing the voter approved city employee pension changes / 49% / 26% / DeMaio +23
Handling the city’s finances / 49% / 31% / DeMaio +18
Fostering economic growth and bringing jobs to the city / 44% / 34% / DeMaio +10
Improving city services / 40% / 37% / DeMaio +3
Improving San Diego’s schools / 35% / 39% / Filner +4

Character Traits

When it comes to character traits, Filner has work to do as the campaign enters the home stretch. Likely Voters are essentially divided when it comes to which candidate is honest and trustworthy and cares about the needs of people like you. But likely voters are more apt to find that DeMaio has a vision for San Diego and has new ideas. Filner is seen by more likely voters than DeMaio as a typical politician.

Applies more to… / Carl DeMaio / Bob Filner / Difference
Has new ideas / 48% / 24% / DeMaio +24
Has a vision for San Diego / 44% / 26% / DeMaio +18
Stands up for what he believes / 41% / 24% / DeMaio +17
Would be effective and get things done / 43% / 29% / DeMaio +14
Would change business as usual in San Diego / 41% / 28% / DeMaio +13
Is a strong and decisive leader / 42% / 34% / DeMaio +8
Would stand up to special interests / 38% / 31% / DeMaio +7
Is honest and trustworthy / 34% / 30% / DeMaio +4
Cares about the needs of people like you / 38% / 36% / DeMaio +2
Is a typical politician / 25% / 41% / Filner +16

Current State of Public Schools

Likely voters view the public schools in San Diego more positively than negatively, although only 36% would give them a grade of ‘A’ or ‘B’.

  • Views of the public schools in San Diego appear to be partisan. Registered Democrats grade the schools in their community better than do registered Republicans.
  • Parents and education oriented voters also hold a more positive view of the San Diego public schools than do other voters.

Grade public schools in SD… / A/B / C / D/F
Total / 36% / 32% / 19%
Party Registration
Democrat / 41% / 33% / 13%
Republican / 35% / 33% / 19%
DTS/Other / 29% / 30% / 26%
Region
West (1, 2) / 43% / 26% / 15%
North Central (5, 6, 7) / 35% / 32% / 18%
South Central (3, 4, 8, 9) / 33% / 35% / 21%
Education
HS or less / 32% / 34% / 17%
Some College / 34% / 39% / 18%
College grad / 36% / 31% / 20%
Post grad / 41% / 26% / 21%
Children <18
Yes / 45% / 28% / 18%
No / 33% / 33% / 19%
Top Issue
Economy and Jobs / 33% / 36% / 17%
Reforming city pensions / 31% / 30% / 27%
Education / 35% / 33% / 20%
Mayoral Ballot
DeMaio / 33% / 31% / 25%
Filner / 39% / 35% / 15%
Undecided/DK / 38% / 28% / 10%

The majority of likely voters hold a favorable view of teachers. When asked to grade the teachers in the public schools in their community, sixty-one percent (61%) of San Diego voters would give them a grade of A or B.

Other school officials get lower marks. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of likely voters would give principals and administrators an A or B. Similarly, just 24% give the school board an A or B and just 21% give the SD Education Association an A or B.

% / Teachers / Principals & Administrators / The School Board / San Diego Education Association
A/B / 61 / 38 / 24 / 21
C / 19 / 26 / 32 / 20
D/F / 8 / 17 / 25 / 16

Likely voters are divided on whether they believe the San Diego School Board and San Diego Education Association are working together to improve student achievement. Thirty-one percent believe this to be the case while 34% think otherwise. However, a plurality (35%) of likely voters indicates they don’t know.

Reforming Public Schools

City voters favor several education reforms, including extending the school year (59%), extending the school day (51%), and allowing parents to petition to remove the leadership and staff froma failing school (58%).

  • DTS Voters (62%), Democrats (59%), and Republicans (57%) all favor extending the school year.
  • Less than half of Republicans (48%) and DTS Voters (49%) are in favor of extending the school day, whereas 54% of Democrats are in favor of this reform.
  • Allowing parents to petition to remove the leadership and staff from a failing school is favored by 67% or Republicans, but only 52% of Democrats. DTS Voters fall somewhere in the middle with 57% in favor.

A majority of likely voters (55%) would favor a proposal to require that teacher evaluations include how well a teacher’s students perform on standardized tests. A third of likely voters in the city would strongly favor this requirement whereas 22% would be strongly opposed to it.

  • Republicans are most apt to support this reform with 69% in favor of this requirement. A majority (53%) of DTS voters also favor this requirement. Democrats are divided on this requirement with 46% in favor and 46% opposed.
  • DeMaio’s support also comes from those who favor the requirement that teacher evaluations include how well a teacher’s students perform on standardized tests. Filner’s support also comes from those who oppose the requirement that teacher evaluations include how well a teacher’s students perform on standardized tests.

City / Mayoral Role in San Diego Schools

More than eight-in-ten (83%) likely voters agree that the next mayor should be involved with the San Diego City Schools. Majorities of every demographic group agree that it is “the next mayor should use his office to help find ways to improve San Diego City Schools,” including majorities of supporters for each mayoral candidates (though Filner voters show slightlymore support than DeMaio voters).

  • There’s a limit to DeMaio’s support among education reformers as his support also comes from those who disagree with the notion that the next mayor should use his office to find ways to improve the schools.

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