POPULATION, HOUSEHOLD CHANGE, HOUSING
NEED & PROVISION
Population and Household change
Population Profile
The population of Maresfield Parish has increased steadily since 2001 when a national Census was taken.
In the 2001 Census the resident population of the Parish, excluding those living in communal establishments, was shown as 31681 compared with a figure of 34522 shown in the 2011 Census. This increase of 284 people represents an increase over 10 years of 8.96% or an average of 0.9% per annum.
The Wealden District Local Plan (WDLP), which covers the period up to 2027, is required by Government guidelines to take account of future levels of need and demand for housing3. Whilst it is impossible to accurately forecast population numbers in 2027, the population figure of 3452 for 2011 could be extrapolated using the 0.9% growth per annum calculated above. This would give a forecast population in 2027 of almost 4000. The total growth from 2011 of 548 people over 16 years would give rise to an average growth rate of 34 people per annum for whom housing would need to be provided.
However, it is important to differentiate between organic growth arising from existing families in the Parish and growth caused by migration into the Parish. The WDLP states that ‘Previous trends show that migration is the main driver of population growth within East Sussex and Wealden’3
The number of dwelling places in the Parish recorded in the census years of 2001 and 2011 shows an increase of 119 places
(see table on page 4) which will have attracted migrants to the village but does not represent organic growth within the Parish. The additional 119 dwelling spaces could account for a large proportion of the growth of 284 people referred to above and could draw the inference that organic growth in the Parish is relatively small.
Age Profile
The differences in the age profile4, in broad terms, of the usual resident population in the Parish between 2001 and 2011 were as follows:-
2001 Census2011 Census % Change
Aged 0 - 14558 552 -1.1
Aged 15 to 24 258 358 38.8
Aged 25 - 44738 675 -8.5
Aged 45 – 64 1019 1155 13.3
Aged 65+ 592 712 20.3
Total 3165* 34529.1
NB: *There is an insignificant difference of 3 in the 2001 Census figures between the age profiles and the usual resident numbers. All residents in Communal Establishments have been deducted from the Aged 65+ category.
According to an East Sussex Survey in 2008 ‘East Sussex has the highest percentage of elderly residents of any county in England’5 at 26%. This was borne out in a later document entitled ‘Focus on East Sussex – 2011 Annual Monitor’ where 2009 figures show people over pensionable age represent 27.1% of the population of East Sussex.6
However, the statistics for Maresfield Parish show lower percentages of elderly residents than those for East Sussex.
In the table above the 712 people over 65 in the Parish in 2011 only represent 20.6% of the total of 3452 but this still demonstrates an increasing % since 2001 when the 592 people over pensionable age represented 18.7% of the total.
This may initially indicate a growing need to provide more dwellings suitable for the elderly.
A commonly heard comment made about villages like Maresfield, Nutley and Fairwarp is that the younger adults are forced to migrate to other areas to move to homes they can afford and to seek jobs and that this leaves the village with a decreasing number of younger adults and an ever growing older population. It is true that the number of people aged over 65 has increased significantly by 20.3% and this may be partly due to the greater longevity of an ageing population. However, contrary to anecdotal comments, there has also been asignificant increase of 38.8% in people aged 15 - 24 and an increase of 13.3% in adults aged 45 – 64.
ACRE, in their Community Profile for Maresfield Parish, published datarelating to actual levels of Inward and Outward Migration in the Parish for 2009/107.
Inward MigrationOutward Migration
(Per 1000 of population)(Per 1000 of population)
Aged 1 – 1487 81
Aged 15 – 24 103 138
Aged 25 - 44 136 116
Aged 45 –645044
Aged65+ 43 36
This data reveals that there was a net migration inward in both the 25 – 44 and the 45 – 64 categories as well as an anticipated net migration inward in the 65+ category. Unfortunately there are no comparable statistics for later years but if the Parish continues to attract people in the 25 – 44 category then it is important to build the type of housing that they require. This category may well have young families and we may need to build appropriate housing for them.
Despite an underlying increase in population in the 15 – 24 age group between 2001 and 2011, shown in an earlier table, the significant net migration outward for this age group is possibly explained by students moving away to take up university places. The Parish is known to have more degree level qualified people when compared with the rest of East Sussex.
Unfortunately, there are no statistics for later years but if 2009/10 is a typical period then the figures would suggest that there could be a continuing need for housing particularly for the age group 25 – 44.
Households
The 2001 and 2011 censuses contain data relating to the numbers and types of dwellings found in the Parish
Detached Semi-Terraced Flat/ Total House/ Detached House/ Maisonette/
Bungalow House/ Bungalow Caravan
Bungalow
Census
2001 881 326 85 6713598
2011 902 365 118 9314789
From the above table, detached houses in the Parish represent 64.8% of the total households in 2001 and 61.0% in 2011. Terraced houses, flats and caravans in the Parish represent 11.2% of total households in 2001 and 14.3% in 2011.
The proportion of detached houses may seem high initially, but a Wealden Parish Summary issued by WDC in 2009 showed a high degree of similarity with the neighbouring Parish of Buxted where detached houses/bungalows represented 66.1% of the total households10. This underlines the nature of the villages in the north of the Wealden Area.
A more detailed breakdown of the households for 2011 from the 2011 Census is as follows:-
2011
5 or more bedroom households 243
4 bedrooms 404
3 bedrooms 457
2 bedrooms 265
1 bedroom 68
Nil bedrooms 3
Household spaces with no usual residents 38
Total 147811
Based on the various tables and data set out in the previous paragraphs there is not compelling or over whelming evidence that there is organic growth in Maresfield Parish nor that there is a housing shortage in Maresfield Parish. However, it may well be true that the type of dwelling available is not entirely compatible with the specific demand but in order to identify specific needsa comprehensive Housing Needs Survey is required
Housing Need
Some published data exists concerning the actual need for homes in the Parish.
A WDC12documentstates that the number of people who have a local connection to the Parish and who were registered on the Council Housing Register as at 2nd February 2010 was 27 persons.Coincidentally, the figure for the neighbouring Parish of Buxted from the same document was also 27.
The WDC Housing Development Team Leader has provided historic data13 about the number of households on the Housing Register with a local connectionas follows:-
At 16th June 201029 households
At 10th January 201132 households
At 24th August 201128 households
A WDC Report in January 2010 states that 64 households in Maresfield Parish indicated that a member of their family had moved out of the Parish to find a suitable home14. The same Report also states that the Estimated Gross Housing need for affordable housing per annum in Maresfield Parish was 23, of which 20 had a local connection15.
Interestingly, from the same Report, the Estimated Gross Housing need foraffordable housing per annum for Buxted Parish was shown as 2216, all of whom had a local connection.
In July 2012 changes were made to the Housing Allocation Policy which introduced a stricter interpretation of a ‘local connection’ and this has had the effect of reducing the number of households on the Housing Register13 as follows:-
At 1st May 201320 Households
At 12 July 2013 17 Households
At 19 August 2013 17 Households
At 17 September 201316 Households
At 30 September 201315 Households
At 17 December 2013 20 Households
The Wellington Gate development of 80 dwellings built during 2012/2013 provided 24 affordable homes of which 19 were for rent and 5 were for shared ownership. At that time the obligation on developers for affordable homes was 30% as opposed to the current 35% in the Wealden Local Plan
Although 9 units were targeted at local people only 7 households bid for them and were able to come off the Register and take up dwellings on the Wellington Gate site.19
WDC recently carried out a Residents Satisfaction Survey 201317 for its tenants. The results are expected to be published in September 2013 and whilst the main thrust of the Survey was to ask tenants to assess whether WDC carried out its Landlord duties satisfactorily there were a few questions relating to overcrowding in tenant housing and the results may give some data on this subject.
Up to 2012 the affordable housing stock in Maresfield was last significantly added to in 2007/8 but has changed little over the last 5or 6 years and whilst vacancies arise they are few in number. Data provided by WDC18relating to affordable housing stock and vacancies is as follows-:
2005/6 – 69homes in total - 4 vacancies that year
2006/7 - 69 homes in total - 2 vacancies that year
2007/8 - 108 homes in total - 4 vacancies that year
2008/9 - 108 homes in total - 2 vacancies that year
2009/10 - 108 homes in total - 4 vacancies that year
2010/2011 - 108 homes in total - 4 vacancies that year
2011/2012 – 112 homes in total – 11 vacancies that year
Since the above date a further 24 affordable homes, comprising 19 for rent and 5 for shared ownership, have become available as a result of the Wellington Gate development.19
It would appear from theevidence supplied by WDC that the provision of social housing does not quite match the demand and there may be a need for some social housing in the Parish rather than for larger detached houses but this needs to be confirmed by a Housing Needs Survey.
One concern held by the Working Group is that WDC may not apply their policy in total accordance with their own guidelines. The Working Group is aware of accommodation in Parklands inMaresfield village becoming vacant and being allocated to persons with no local connection.
Housing Needs Survey
In order to be more informed about the true up to date housing need in Maresfield village the Maresfield Working Group undertook a relatively basic Survey –see Appendix 1. The Working Group received 67 replies and the results, shown in more detail at Appendix 2,revealed that some older couples were considering downsizing into a smaller detached and owned property in the next 5 or 10 years but only a small percentage were considering downsizing in Maresfield. The Parish NDP Steering Group agreed in August 2013 to commission Action in Rural Sussex (AiRS) to undertake a comprehensive Housing Needs Survey in order to verify the true housing need in the Parish
Housing Supply
There is a figure of 50 homes for MaresfieldVillage contained in Wealden District Council’s Core Strategy to be built over the 20 year period of the Core Strategy. This figure was approved at a Parish hosted meeting of Maresfield village residents in the Village Hall in 2010 and was then recommended to Wealden by the Parish Council.
Since housing development in either Fairwarp or Nutley is limited to exception sitesdue to their proximity to the Ashdown Forest Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) their requirement for housing will need to be met from the allocation of 50 houses for MaresfieldVillage.
WDC has carried out assessments of various sites in the Parish with a potential for development, known as the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) programme.
At this date there are 4 approved SHLAA sites in MaresfieldVillage, shown at Appendix 3, that do not have any Outline Planning Permission attached to them and where development of 50 homes could possibly take place. There are alsosites within MaresfieldVillagewhich have been submitted to WDC but which were not approved, shown at Appendix 4, and there are some sites which have not been submitted for approval which are detailed at Appendix 5.
There aretwoplanned housing developments within MaresfieldVillage which were not recorded in the 2011 census figures. They are the Wellington Gate development of 80 homes and the anticipated development of 9 houses off Park Farm Drive. Together with the 50 homes included in the WDC Local Plan the additional homes, totalling 139, will probably house some 300 plus people. It is unknown whether these will merely attract new migrants to MaresfieldVillage or whether they will go towards satisfying any organic growth in population during the Plan period. Theoretically, they satisfy about 9 years of the growth predicted on Page 1.
WDC policy WCS8 requires anyhousing development of 5 or more houses to provide a minimum of 35% affordable homes but developers need an acceptable profit or return on Capital Employed from any development they undertake and this is usually secured by building larger houses with the required minimum number of affordable homes.
New homes that are built in the future will attract a Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) which has superseded the previous Section 106 requirement whereby a developer had to pay to WDC a fixed sum per house for each individual item of infrastructure. CIL isa sum payable by a developer, based on the sq. metre size ofeach new house built but no CIL is payable on affordable Housing.
Under recent legislation any Parish with an approved NDP can receive 25% of the total CIL relating to housing development in their Parish as opposed to those Parishes without an NDP who will only receive 15% of the total CIL.
If an assumption is made that the 50 homes contained in the Local Plan are developed on one site and contain the required 18 affordable homes then the 25% CIL payable by WDC to the Parish would amount to £129,600. Without an NDP the amount received of only 15% would be £77,760.
The difference of £51,840 could make a substantial contribution to the improvement of the infrastructure in the Parish.
If an NDP were in place and the 50 houses were spread over smaller sites in groups of fewer than 5 and there was no provision for affordable homes at all then the Parish would receive £202,500
Location of New Development
MaresfieldVillage residentsvoted for no more than 50 homes at the Parish hosted meeting in 2010, referred to earlier, and there would appear to be firm resistance to any form of large scale development. This is borne out by a petition that was compiled by a village resident and sent to the Inspector who was appointed to preside over the Appeal by Barratts against the refusal by WDC of their Outline Planning Application for 180 homes on land south of the Recreation Ground. The Petition contained over 240 names opposed to large scale development.
The Working Group was aware that there are strongly differing opinions in the village as to where the 50 homes should be built andin order to consider those opinions held a Coffee Morning in the Village Hall in September 2012 and also encouraged direct input from local groups. A map displayed at the Coffee Morning showed the 4 approved SHLAA sites and asked the community for their preferences. The map is shown at Appendix 3.
Although the Coffee Morning only had an attendance of some 50 people, nobody supported development on Site A, 13 supported Site B, 22 supported Site C and 2 supported Site D.
Of the respondents, 23 voted against development on Site A, 3 voted against Site B, 3 voted against Site C and 30 voted against Site D.
The WG recognised that it had not been able to quantify anyinfrastructure benefits that the differing landowners might come forward with as there had been no consultation with Landowners at that stage. The WG realised that more information was needed.
Further information was provided by two local Groups who carried out their own Surveys and both Surveys were restricted to the 4 SHLAA approved sites shown at Appendix 3.
The first input was from the Maresfield Conservation Group (MCG) who carried out their own Survey which set out their view of the advantages of development on Site D. Their surveyis shown at Appendix 6.The MCG reported that 89 of its 400+ members answered ‘yes’ to all the questions on the Survey and a further 12 members disagreed with some of the questions. The MCG Survey was originally restricted to members but later distributed village wide and the MCG reported thata further 17 non-members answered ‘yes’ to all the questions. The MCG concluded that non-respondents would have answered ‘yes’ to their questions and therefore believes that the majority of their members prefer development on Site D. The MCG believes that substantial benefits will accrue to the villagefrom development in this location andthese benefits and the results of the Survey were described in detail in the MCG Newsletter, dated 3rd December 2012, and shown at Appendix 7.
The second input was from the Maresfield Residents Group (MRG) which is a small group of Maresfield residents that carried out its own village wide survey. The Survey form is shown at Appendix 8and attemptedto summarise the known advantages and disadvantages of each Site using the same Site references as used at the WG Coffee Morning for clarity.
Their Survey yielded 278 responses and a detailed summary of the results is shown at Appendix 9. The summary shows that over 90% of the respondents voted for either Site B or Site C as their preferred first choice and over 70% put Site D as their last choice. Additional comments were received and these are noted in Appendix 10.