Plan Evaluating the Potential Impact of Vesuvius Eruption of Population in Campania, Italy
Neil McCormack
Map of Volcano and Surrounding Area Campania. Red Dot Indicates Naples Center While Pink Dot Indicates Vesuvius Center
Topographic Profile Across Volcanic Calderra With Contour Interval 200m
Map Showing Distribution of Population Within Buffer Zones of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40 km From Center of Vesuvius. Blue indicates sparse while red indicates dense population distribution.
Map Showing Potential Landslide Hazards Within 20 km Buffer Around Vesuvius. Black Shading Indicates Landslide Susceptibility
Distance (km) / Population Density (ppl/km2)5 / 1290.492554
10 / 1547.035889
15 / 1216.374023
20 / 1204.937622
25 / 765.1384888
30 / 378.3883972
35 / 203.7902832
40 / 40.8061981
As we can see from this table, the population is not evenly distributed around Vesuvius. Generally, population density is greatest closer to the volcano and spreads out further away. The buffer zone with the greatest population is between 5-10km from the center of Vesuvius.
To create this map depicting the wedge-looking eruption, I tried a few methods by looking at the slope map of the volcano to determine the greatest slope, which occurred near the center and slightly to the north. I created a flow direction map based on the elevations, which indicated the greatest potential flow moving to the north-northeast of the center.This describes the flow of lava. However, to check my assumptions, and more specifically look at volcanic ash, I looked at a map from the Italian Ministry of Defense from 1991 that specifically predicted the distribution of volcanic ash via the wedge I have drawn. The direction is thus slightly to the south-west of the example wedge shapefile in the exam.
Buffer Distance / Point Count / Average Pop/Point / Total Displaced Population5 / 12 / 2518.25 / 30,219
10 / 40 / 2932.025 / 117,281
15 / 64 / 3389.921875 / 216,955
20 / 92 / 3859.130435 / 355,040
25 / 88 / 4307.522727 / 379,062
30 / 6 / 4848.5 / 29,091
1,127,648
I converted the population raster to a point shapefile. I intersected the wedge with the buffers. Then, I joined the buffered wedge to the population point shapefile. The resulting table indicated average people per point segregated by buffer zone. The buffers ranged from 0-30km from the center of the volcano towards the Italian governments predicted south-east distribution of ash. The table also indicated the number of points contained within each wedge-buffer. To determine total population displaced within each wedge-buffer, I multiplied the average people per point within each wedge-buffer by the number of points contained by the particular wedge-buffer.
In the event that scientists predict the eruption of Vesuvius, Italy would have to evacuate over 1 million people living directly to the south-east of the center of the volcano within a distance of thirty kilometers to escape the suffocating effects of volcanic ash alone. Additional people, likely an amount greater than the 1 million threatened by ash would have to be evacuated who live to the north-east of the mountain, where the most lava would be flowing according to the topology of the mountain. Unfortunately, very little lava would flow south-west, towards the cooling waters of the Mediterranean sea, and the Italian nation would have to provide emergency evacuation, shelter, and medical services to those displaced by the event.