id: 146218
date: 3/17/2008 22:40
refid: 08LIMA480
origin: Embassy Lima
classification: SECRET//NOFORN
destination: 08LIMA3853|08LIMA389|08LIMA390
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S E C R E T LIMA 000480
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958:DECL: 03/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, PE
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN NGOS, LOCAL RADICALS, AND VENEZUELA PLAN
PROTESTS AGAINST EU-LATIN AMERICA SUMMIT
REF: A. LIMA 0389
B. LIMA 3853
C. LIMA 0390
Classified By: POL/C ALEXIS LUDWIG FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
1. (C) Summary: European NGOs, Peruvian social movements, and
radical groups have been working since early 2007 to organize
"anti-summit" protests against the European Union-Latin
American Heads of State summit scheduled for mid-May in Lima.
In early 2008, the Venezuelan Embassy allegedly helped craft
a cooperation agreement between protest organizers and
nationalist opposition leader Ollanta Humala. Bolivian
President Evo Morales is so far the only head of state
confirmed to address anti-summit protestors. Notwithstanding
the recent arrest of seven terrorist suspects and the
government's public claims, we have not seen evidence backing
the notion that the Venezuela-backed Bolivarian Continental
Coordinator plans to disrupt the summit. The greatest
concern among our European Union mission colleagues is the
threat that radicals could hijack the protests by
aggressively confronting ill-prepared security forces, as
occurred in Cusco in February. The GOP is taking these
threats seriously. End Summary.
Local Social Movements, European NGOs Planning Protests Since
Early 2007
------
2. (C) A variety of radical Peruvian social movements and
European anti-globalization NGOs have been planning protests
against the May European Union-Latin America summit since at
least early 2007 under the slogan Linking Alternatives 3
("Enlazando Alternativas 3" --
www.enlazandoalternativas.org), according to internal
planning documents shared with poloffs. The documents show
that organizers have held a series of workshops and meetings
among dozens of social movement leaders to coordinate roles
and international fundraising efforts. On the European side,
principal groups include Attac -- an anti-globalization
organization that has led protests against several European
summits -- the leftist solidarity group France Amerique
Latine, the Spanish environmental organization Ecologistas en
Accion, the Amsterdam-based scholar-activist Transnational
Institute, and many others.
3. (S//NF) On the Peruvian side, leaders and participants
include a variety of anti-systemic social leaders. The main
organizer, according to an Embassy contact involved in the
preparations, is the indigenous leader Miguel Palacin Quispe,
who rose to prominence as the President of the radical
anti-mining NGO Conacami and now leads the Andean Coordinator
of Indigenous Organizations (CAOI). Among a variety of
peasant and indigenous groups, prominent organizers include
leaders of the National Agriculture Confederation and
Conveagro agricultural unions, which organized national
strikes in February 2008 that resulted in various roadblocks,
numerous arrests, and four dead protestors. Individuals who
have attended at least one planning meeting but whose actual
roles are unknown include:
-- Hugo Blanco, a long-time radical ideologue who helped
organize protests that shut down Cusco in February (Ref A);
-- Elsa Malpartida, cocalero leader and Andean Parliament
member;
-- Melchor Lima Hancco, Peasant Confederation of Peru member
who, according to sensitive reporting, may be linked to a
Venezuela-sponsored ALBA house in Lima; and
-- Sandro Vasquez Chavez, a leader of Patria Roja-dominated
peasant defense groups in Cajamarca.
According to our contacts in Cajamarca, Vasquez Chavez is
also a former municipal candidate for Ollanta Humala's
Nationalist Party (PNP) and a close collaborator of the
openly pro-Venezuelan PNP Congressman from Cajamarca Werner
Cabrera.
Ollanta Humala, Venezuela, and Bolivia Step In
------
4. (C) Peruvian Nationalist Party leader Ollanta Humala, who
did not participate in the first year of anti-summit
organization, began talking publicly in early 2008 about
leading protests against the EU summit. Miguel Palacin, who
has independent political ambitions and was understandably
reluctant to allow his handiwor to be claimed by a rival,
reportedly resisted Humala's transparent desire to take over
the movement. This created the possibility of competing
protests. According to a contact close to Palacin, however,
Venezuelan diplomat Virly Torres stepped in to resolve the
dispute: Torres convoked the two leaders to a meeting at her
Embassy in February and successfully pressured them to reach
an agreement. Torres' main goal, says our contact, was to
ensure that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez had a single
alternate forum to address during the summit. According to
the agreement, Ollanta will organize protestors in Lima,
while Palacin will draw protestors from the regions to the
captital for their main rally on May 18th, the second day
that heads of state will be in Lima. Tensions between the
leaders reportedly remain alive, however, and Palacin,
without Humala's knowledge, plans to use the summit to launch
a new political party to contest the 2010 regional elections.
(Note: Regional elections are scheduled for 2010, general
elections in 2011. End Note.)
5. (C) Bolivian government and social sector leaders have
shown interest in the anti-summit, and President Evo Morales
is so far the only head of state confirmed to attend. Two
Bolivian nationals, indirectly linked to the MAS government,
have appeared at anti-summit organizational meetings. The
first is Alexandra Flores of the Solon Foundation, an NGO
founded by top Evo Morales advisor and anti-free trade and
globalization guru Pablo Solon. The second is Pablo
Villegas, a pro-Morales ideologue and author as well as a
member of the anti-FTA umbrella group "Bolivian Movement for
the Sovereignty and Solidarity Integration of the People".
Radical indigenous Aymara leader and convicted terrorist
Felipe Quispe also plans to join the protests, according to
an Embassy contact. (Quispe is rumored to have recently
given armed training to radical Peruvians in southern Peru --
Ref B.)
Role of the Bolivarian Continental Coordinator (CCB)
------
6. (C) On February 29th, the GOP arrested seven Peruvians as
suspected terrorists and accused them of planning to disrupt
the May EU-LAC summit as well as the APEC leaders meeting in
November. The suspects were detained in northern Peru while
returning from Quito, Ecuador, where they had attended the
Second Congress of the Bolivarian Continental Coordinator, an
organization reportedly funded by President Hugo Chavez and
the FARC to bring together radical groups across Latin
America (Ref C). Roque Felix Gonzalez la Rosa, the leader of
the detainees and President of CCB's Peru Chapter, is a
member of the Peruvian terrorist group MRTA who spent
1996-2004 in jail for the 1995 kidnapping of Bolivian
businessman and politician Samuel Doria Medina. (Note:
Proceeds from the ransom paid to free Doria Medina reportedly
funded the 1996 MRTA takeover of the Japanese Embassy in
Lima. End Note.) Gonzalez publicly admitted financing the
travel of 11 Peruvians to Quito with money from the
Venezuelan organization "Casa Mariategui", according to press
reports. The press has also linked Gonzalez to two
individuals arrested (and released) for allegedly plotting to
attack the US Ambassador's residence in early 2007. Two of
the others detained in Tumbes are also allegedly former-MRTA
militants, according to press reports.
7. (C) Despite the shady connections of some of the
detainees, the government's public claims and pervasive
rumors, the government has not yet published any clear
evidence linking them to specific plans to disrupt the
summit. Instead, they were charged with propagandizing for
terrorists -- several were photographed in Quito protesting
with signs praising the FARC, Sendero Luminoso, and MRTA. We
have not seen any evidence corroborating the government's
accusation, but various government officials, including the
Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, have repeatedly
stated that the government is in possession of such evidence.
Europeans Worried About Politicization, Confrontations
------
8. (C) Our colleagues in the European Union mission are more
worried about the prospective politicization of anti-summit
protests than about the likelihood of violence or an actual
terrorist attack, which they believe is low. Ana Santos, a
political officer at the EU Mission, says they fear that
radical elements could hijack the protests and seek publicity
by provoking confrontations with police, as happened in
recent protests in Cusco (Ref A). EU mission officials are
particularly concerned by the lack of an established dialogue
mechanism between social movements and the government that
would seek to prevent such occurrences. Anti-summit leader
Miguel Palacin complained to the EU mission that the GOP
appears intent on criminalizing democratic protests, which
makes dialogue useless; the government in turn argues that
protestors want only to undermine the government and to sully
its international image. Santos adds that, in early March,
an important and moderate NGO that focuses on sound proposals
rather than confrontation or political publicity decided to
withdraw from the anti-summit protests. The EU does not yet
know why, but worries that this relatively responsible
mainstream NGO became disillusioned by the radical and
politicized motives of the protest organizers.
Comment: Genuine Risk That Radicals Will Hijack Protests
------
9. (C) If the recent agricultural strikes and the protests in
Cusco are any indication, there is reason to believe that
radical groups will attempt to hijack the coming anti EU-LAC
summit protests and to seek publicity through confrontation.
At the same time, the Peruvian government is aware of the
protests planned for this summit and the subsequent APEC
leaders meeting, and has decided to take a proactive, even
preemptive, approach to addressing them.
NEALON
id: 60351
date: 4/12/2006 22:48
refid: 06LIMA1452
origin: Embassy Lima
classification: SECRET
destination:
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------header ends ------
S E C R E T LIMA 001452
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PE
SUBJECT: APRA CONFIDENT OF MAKING SECOND-ROUND RUN-OFF,
SEEKS EMBASSY'S ASSISTANCE IN CEMENTING DEMOCRATIC
COALITION AGAINST HUMALA
Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d)
.
1. (S) SUMMARY: APRA party Co-Secretary General and
Congressman Jorge del Castillo, in a 4/12 breakfast with
Polcouns, said that the Apristas were confident that their
presidential candidate Alan Garcia would reach the run-off
against Union por el Peru's Ollanta Humala. Del Castillo
explained that APRA was looking to cement a coalition of
democratic parties to defeat Humala in the second round and
to promote governability after Garcia takes office. He
requested the Embassy's good offices in helping convince
Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores to concede once it becomes
clear that she cannot catch Garcia (Flores has vowed to
remain in the race "until the last ballot is counted") and in
establishing links to Christian evangelical candidate
Humberto Lay Sun, who captured four percent of the vote. END
SUMMARY.
2. (S) According to del Castillo:
-- APRA had legal representatives (personeros), who
witnessed and recorded the vote counts at practically all of
the 88,481 voting tables, and the reports they filed on the
results have Garcia holding off Flores, although the final
margin may be in the 50,000-70,000 vote range, rather than
the 119,698 reported by the Office of National Electoral
Processes (ONPE) in its latest vote count (Septel).
-- Flores and her Unidad Nacional (UN) team have much the
same information, and know that they have lost.
-- Nonetheless, Flores refuses to concede, vowing to remain
in the race "until the last ballot is counted."
-- On the one hand, Flores' position is understandable, as,
pushed by her spokesman, UN Congressman Xavier Barron, she
went out on a limb by proclaiming victory over Garcia on
election night and now has UN activists pressing her to hold
out until all the votes are in. (NOTE: Barron has since
criticized ONPE for not including the results from challenged
tally sheets in its vote counts, even though the law requires
ONPE to omit these results until the National Electoral Board
rules on their validity - See Septel. END NOTE.)
-- On the other hand, it could take three weeks for all of
the votes to be counted and certified. Three weeks is an
eternity in politics, and if the democratic forces remain
divided during that time, leaving the campaigning to Humala,
it will enable the latter to establish an unchallenged
momentum that will be difficult to counter later.
-- By Easter Sunday sufficient results should be in to
demonstrate clearly that Flroes has no/no chance to overtake
Garcia.
-- At that time, the Embassy could greatly assist the effort
to unite the democratic forces against Humala by using its
good offices to encourage Flores to concede and enter into
discussions with APRA on cooperating in the run-off campaign
to defeat Humala and on establishing a working relationship
and/or co-participation in the Garcia administration that
would follow.
-- The Embassy's assistance in establishing links between
APRA and Christian evangelical candidate Humberto Lay Sun
(who received over four percent of the vote) would also be
appreciated.
-- He (del Castillo) has already opened discussions with
Jose Miguel Morales, President of CONFIEP (Peru's largest
business association) on the need to prioritize cooperation
between an APRA government and the private sector in
addressing social needs in the rural sector: "We agreed that
failure to address these needs will result in Humala being
elected in the first round in 2011."
3. (S) Polcouns said that he would inform his superiors
about del Castillo's requests.
POWERS