Options for Transforming Canada S Energy Use

1 Intelligent Well Technology: Status and Opportunities for Developing Marginal Reserves SPE

OPTIONS FOR TRANSFORMING CANADA’S ENERGY USE

Matthew Hansen, National Energy Board, (403)-299-3179,

Abha Bhargava, National Energy Board, (403) 299-3171,

Tara Smolak, National Energy Board, (403) 299-2746,

Overview

There is increasing interest from Canadians to move towards a sustainable energy future. Reducing Canada’s high level of energy use is an important component of this. Options to make this transition are at various stages of development. The purpose of this analysis is to identify and analyze several of these options with respect to three important questions:

Do the options offer potential for change by 2020?
Where is this potential located?
What does meeting or exceeding this potential depend on?

To help to answer these questions, the National Energy Board has analyzed a suite of options aimed at reducing energy consumption. The list of analyzed options is comprehensive in its coverage of Canada’s diverse energy system, from energy production to end-use consumption. Each option is analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Qualitative analysis includes discussion of relevant background information, as well as those factors which will affect whether the option’s potential to 2020 is met or exceeded. Quantitative analysis includes estimating the potential of an option in terms of energy consumption reductions in 2020, relative to the National Energy Board’s latest reference case forecast, 2009 Reference Case Scenario(2009).

Organization is as follows. After the introduction, the second section gives an overview of the methodology behind this analysis. In the third section, the options will be summarized, and their estimated potential presented. Fourth, factors affecting whether or not the estimated potential will be met or exceeded are discussed. Some concluding remarks follow.

Methods

The quantitative estimation is made through the use of the Board’s suite of models used in its energy futures work, including 2009 Reference Case Scenario (2009) and Canada’s Energy Future (2007). Options are chosen to offer a broad and comprehensive view on Canada’s energy system, including the production, transportation, and consumption of energy. The options are limited to those which have been identified in previous work by others (academics, governments, non-governmental organizations, etc.) and that are sufficiently defined so as to be examined. Through this analysis, the Board is not identifying any new options.

Results

First, the results of the estimated reductions in energy consumption in 2020 relative to reference case levels suggest change is possible in this timeframe.

Second, there is potential for change across Canada’s energy system, from energy production to its final consumption.

Third, there are many factors which affect the potential of the options to be met or exceeded. This include factors relating to consumer behaviour, infrastructure development, technological progress, timing of legislation, specification of option details and rules, and developments in aspects of energy markets such as fuel prices.Each option for reducing energy demand will have its own set of enabling conditions. However,two interesting points relating to these conditions emerge from the analysis.

First, many options share the same or similar enabling conditions. For example, consumer acceptance can have important effects on the potential of urban form or “smart growth” strategies, as well as increased penetration of emerging or alternative fuels and technology vehicles.
Second, through the analysis of the various enabling conditions of the options, we find that the ability for an option to meet or exceed its potential depends on a variety of key actors: consumers of energy, producers of energy, policy makers and regulators, and researchers. The success of any given option does not depend solely on one of these groups, implying the importance of a collaborative approach to change.

Conclusions

The results of this analysis suggest change is possible in the 2020 timeframe, and there are opportunities for change across Canada’s energy system. However, the extent of this change is a function of a variety of factors. Several of these factors are common to a variety of options. The analysis of these factors shows that the potential of a given option depends on a variety of actors: consumers and producers of energy, policy makers and regulators, and researchers. Each one of these groups has an important role to play in the ability of these options to transition Canada towards a sustainable energy future.

References

National Energy Board (2007). Canada’s Energy Future: Reference Case and Scenarios

to 2030, November 2007,

rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2007/nrgyftr2007-eng.pdf

National Energy Board (2009). 2009 Reference Case Scenario: Canadian Energy

Demand and Supply to 2020, July 2009,

rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2009/rfrnccsscnr2009-eng.pdf