Online Resource 7 for the article:
The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change
(Submitted to the Journal of Regional Environmental Change)
Miriam Dunn1, Mark D.A. Rounsevell1,3, Fredrik Boberg2, Elizabeth Clarke1, Jens Christensen2,4, Marianne S. Madsen2
1. Institute of Geography, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
2. Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.
3. IMK-IFU, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
4. Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Corresponding author: Dr. Miriam Dunn, email:
Results of the comparison between the projected precipitation for Scotland and current precipitation in some of the analogue locations
Examples are presented for two Scottish locations and example analogue locations from relatively wet wine production regions. These show that projected decreases in Summer precipitation in Scotland bring the Scottish locations closer to the average Summer precipitation currently experienced in these example analogue locations. However, the annual rainfall projections for the Scottish locations are significantly higher than the current precipitation in the analogue locations; in some instances, by more than three times the current precipitation in those locations. Higher annual rainfall is typically attributable to precipitation falling in the autumn and winter months (not shown).
Table S3. Comparison of the differences between projected future (late 21st century) average Summer and annual precipitation for Scotland and current average Summer and annual precipitation for two example analogue locations in existing wine production regions. Projected changes use CMIP data for annual % change (see Table 2) and EC-Earth data for Summer % change (see Figure S2), both under RCP 8.5. Current precipitation data sourced from the UK Met Office website (2016) and the MétéoFrance (French Meteorological Service) website (2016).
Scottish location (NOW) / Scottish location (PROJECTED) / Analogue location (NOW)Hoy, Orkney (Loch of Hundland) / Hoy, Orkney (Loch of Hundland) / Loire Valley, France (Tours)
Average total Summer precipitation / 170.4 / 153.4 (minus 10%) / 141.8
Average total annual precipitation / 1024.2 / 1106.1 (plus 8%) / 695.6
Scottish location (NOW) / Scottish location (PROJECTED) / Analogue location (NOW)
Glen Coe (Tulloch Bridge) / Glen Coe (Tulloch Bridge) / Alsace wine region, France (Strasbourg)
Average total Summer precipitation / 272.9 / 229.2 (minus 16%) / 205.7
Average total annual precipitation / 1809.4 / 1954.1 (plus 8%) / 665