Risk Sub-group Models using Continuous Problem Scores, Imputed data set N=4739
A) Risk groups according to Early Sexual Behavior and Age 13 Risk Behavior
Reference group=No Age 13 Risk Behavior1 or Early Sexual Behavior / 1) Early Sexual Behavior without Age 13 Risk Behavior / 2) Early Sexual Behavior with Age 13 Risk Behavior / 3) Age 13 Risk Behavior Only
Problem / Effect / RRR (95% CI) / p / RRR (95% CI) / p / RRR (95% CI) / p
Hyperactivity Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 0.88 (0.77 - 1.00) / 0.053 / 1.00 (0.83 - 1.19) / 0.980 / 1.06 (0.90 - 1.25) / 0.474
Change in hyperactivity Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 1.01 (0.87 - 1.16) / 0.921 / 1.26 (1.05 - 1.50) / 0.011 / 1.14 (0.96 - 1.35) / 0.144
Conduct problems Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 1.21 (1.06 - 1.37) / 0.005 / 1.16 (0.97 - 1.38) / 0.107 / 1.04 (0.88 - 1.22) / 0.653
Change in conduct problems Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 1.05 (0.93 - 1.18) / 0.455 / 1.12 (0.95 - 1.33) / 0.185 / 1.10 (0.94 - 1.28) / 0.225
Peer problems Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 0.79 (0.69 - 0.91) / 0.001 / 0.78 (0.65 - 0.94) / 0.009 / 1.01 (0.87 - 1.18) / 0.890
Change in peer problems Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 0.84 (0.74 - 0.94) / 0.004 / 0.87 (0.73 - 1.02) / 0.087 / 0.99 (0.87 - 1.13) / 0.922
Depression Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 1.08 (0.93 - 1.24) / 0.309 / 1.17 (0.97 - 1.40) / 0.094 / 1.14 (0.97 - 1.34) / 0.113
Change in depression Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 1.13 (1.00 - 1.27) / 0.042 / 1.10 (0.94 - 1.29) / 0.220 / 1.10 (0.96 - 1.26) / 0.156
School dislike Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 1.06 (0.94 - 1.19) / 0.375 / 1.43 (1.21 - 1.69) / <0.001 / 1.58 (1.36 - 1.84) / <0.001
Change school dislike Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 1.09 (0.98 - 1.20) / 0.116 / 1.33 (1.16 - 1.53) / <0.001 / 1.31 (1.16 - 1.49) / <0.001
School performance Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 1.05 (0.91 - 1.21) / 0.519 / 1.01 (0.82 - 1.23) / 0.940 / 0.92 (0.76 - 1.11) / 0.396
Change in school performance Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 0.91 (0.78 - 1.07) / 0.257 / 0.88 (0.71 - 1.09) / 0.236 / 0.95 (0.77 - 1.16) / 0.608
B) Alternative Risk group Classification of groups 1 and 2 according to Sexual Risk-taking
Reference group= No Age 13 Risk Behavior or Early Sexual Behavior / 1)Early Sexual Behavior with Lower Sexual Risk-taking2 / 2)Early Sexual Behavior with Higher Sexual Risk-taking / 3)Age 13 Risk Behavior Only 3
Problem / Effect / RRR (95% CI) / p / RRR (95% CI) / p / RRR (95% CI) / p
Hyperactivity Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 0.95 (0.80 - 1.13) / 0.547 / 0.87 (0.70 - 1.09) / 0.222 / 1.06 (0.85 - 1.33) / 0.578
Change in hyperactivity Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 1.11 (0.94 - 1.33) / 0.223 / 1.02 (0.82 - 1.28) / 0.847 / 1.10 (0.88 - 1.37) / 0.409
Conduct problems Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 1.05 (0.89 - 1.25) / 0.553 / 1.35 (1.10 - 1.66) / 0.004 / 1.02 (0.83 - 1.26) / 0.840
Change in conduct problems Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 0.96 (0.82 - 1.13) / 0.637 / 1.18 (0.98 - 1.43) / 0.084 / 1.04 (0.85 - 1.27) / 0.719
Peer problems Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 0.77 (0.64 - 0.92) / 0.004 / 0.81 (0.65 - 1.02) / 0.068 / 1.05 (0.86 - 1.28) / 0.633
Change in peer problems Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 0.86 (0.74 - 1.00) / 0.056 / 0.87 (0.71 - 1.06) / 0.154 / 1.00 (0.83 - 1.19) / 0.967
Depression Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 1.11 (0.94 - 1.33) / 0.219 / 1.09 (0.88 - 1.36) / 0.436 / 1.12 (0.91 - 1.38) / 0.270
Change in depression Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 1.09 (0.94 - 1.25) / 0.255 / 1.05 (0.88 - 1.26) / 0.606 / 1.07 (0.90 - 1.27) / 0.450
School dislike Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 1.15 (0.98 - 1.35) / 0.095 / 1.24 (1.01 - 1.51) / 0.040 / 1.65 (1.36 - 2.01) / <0.001
Change school dislike Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 1.10 (0.96 - 1.25) / 0.168 / 1.22 (1.04 - 1.44) / 0.017 / 1.31 (1.11 - 1.54) / 0.001
School performance Time 1 / 1 SD increase / 1.06 (0.88 - 1.29) / 0.528 / 1.33 (1.04 - 1.72) / 0.025 / 0.89 (0.70 - 1.14) / 0.355
Change in school performance Time 1 to Time 2 / 1 SD increase / 0.89 (0.72 - 1.08) / 0.236 / 0.99 (0.76 - 1.30) / 0.947 / 0.90 (0.70 - 1.16) / 0.415
Note: RRR denotes relative risk ratio, SD denotes standard deviation.All problem scores were standardised, to allow comparison of effects. Change scores were calculated by subtracting Time 1from Time 2 scores, where positive scores indicate increases in problems but an improvement in school performance. Models adjusted for other problems at same time point, gender, age in months, stage of puberty at age 15 clinic assessment, mother's education, maternal smoking, partner's social class, biological father's presence in household, household financial difficulties, child's relationship with parents, parental monitoring, maternal interest in child's schooling, child's attendance at place of worship, child's early puberty, IQ, child's physical attractiveness, and early romantic behaviour.1Risk behaviour denotes one or more of smoking, drinking, cannabis use or serious antisocial behaviour (see text for full definition). 2 Problem patterns: decreasing (Time 1 only), increasing (Time 2 only), persistent (Time 1 and Time 2). 1 Sexual risk based on very early sexual behavior (age 13), condom use, use of alcohol/drugs at sex, number of partners. See text for full definition. 3 Group 3 defined as for Part A.