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Module 3B: Ecosystems and Climate Change
Part 1: Climate change predictions
Virtually all scientists now recognize that our climate is currently changing due at least in part to anthropogenic (human-caused) factors. Predictions for the future can never be certain, but a growing consensus indicates that the most of the earth will be warmer than present in the future, and that some areas will become moister while others dry out. Such predictions are often based on computer models of global climate, which are rapidly becoming more sophisticated as our understanding of the Earth’s climate improves, and as technology improves computational power.
Take some time to examine the attached figures which show model predictions for temperature and precipitation towards the end of this century. Note that the units on both maps represent change in average annual conditions relative to present: for example, a value of 2 on the temperature map means that average temperature for the entire year is expected to be 2° warmer, while a value of -10 on the precipitation map means rainfall is expected to decrease by an average of 10 cm per year.
1. Describe the patterns you see in model predictions of temperature and precipitation for the end of this century. Try to be specific in terms of the magnitude (amount) and spatial pattern of the predicted changes:
a) Predicted temperature changes
b) Predicted precipitation changes
c) What are the major similarities and/or differences between your responses to (a) and (b)?
Part 2: The effect of climate change on ecosystems
You have already learned that climate is an important state factor, meaning that it can often have a major effect on how ecosystems function and where they occur. Thus, you can probably see how changing climate may have a big impact on Earth’s ecosystems, even during your lifetime.
In this part of the assignment, you will try to predict the climate of specific locations worldwide in 2100 AD. Then, using what you learned previously about how climate can define biomes, you will predict how the ecosystems at these locations may be affected by the changes in climate.
2. In this part of the assignment, you will try to predict the climate of specific locations worldwide in 2100 AD. Then, using what you learned previously about how climate can define biomes, you will predict how the ecosystems at these locations may be affected by the changes in climate.
a) Determine the predicted change in temperature and precipitation for each city in Table 1. (These will be fairly rough estimates, but that’s OK.)
i) Find the city, if necessary, on the City Locations map.
ii) Find the city’s approximate location on the maps of predicted temperature and precipitation.
iii) Using the scales provided, estimate the expected changes for each variable.
iv) Record the predicted changes in columns 4 and 5 of Table 1
b) Based on today’s climate and the predicted changes, determine the expected precipitation and temperature for each city in 2100 AD. Record your answers in columns 6 and 7 or Table 1.
c) Finally, use these new climate variables to predict the expected biome at each location in 2100 AD. Record your answers in column 8.
Part 3: Additional questions
Use your findings from Question 2 and your knowledge of the state factors and interactive controls which govern ecosystems to answer the questions below:
3. Summarize your predictions from Question 2. Are most ecosystems facing similar climate change scenarios, or is there a lot of variation? Give two specific examples.
4. Of the locations you looked at in Question 2, which do you predict to undergo the greatest change in ecosystem composition due to climate change? Explain.
5. You should have found some locations that will no longer fit anywhere in the Whittaker diagram if climate change occurs as predicted. Why do you think the diagram has no predicted biome for some combinations of temperature and precipitation? What does this mean in terms of trying to predict the biomes for those “off the charts” locations?
6. If the climate in 2100 AD turns out to be exactly as predicted in this assignment, do you expect your biome predictions will also be accurate? Why or why not?