MBA SEMINAR in MARKETING MANAGEMENT

[MKTG 600; Dr. Carter; WINTER 2011]

** SITUATION ANALYSIS & MARKET INTELLIGENCE SCAN ASSIGNMENT **

> 15 points (5 points per “scan”) & Ongoing Completion through Course <

Introduction:

The “situation analysis” assignment is framed as a “micro-economic” exercise using a limited “basket” of “macro-economic” indicators. This narrow framing aids strategic insight by concentrating on a few precise market factors, rather than conducting a comprehensive scam on the broad set of “external marketing environment factors.” To help structure this precisely focused “situation analysis” we will use the Conference Board’s “basket” of “leading economic indicators.”

This standard “basket” of market indicators helps to anchor our “scanning” activity by providing continuity among student assignments, as well as collective comparison and collaboration. Although the primary emphasis of the “leading economic indicators” is on the “economic” factor in the “external marketing environment,” we will use “scanning” discussions to derive implications for other market trends related to demographic, social-cultural, technological, political-legal, and ecological issues.

In addition, we will deconstruct the “anatomy” of leading economic indicators to discover the strategic market purpose of the trend patterns tracked. That way, we can interpret the leading economic indicators for our specific strategic “angle” of expertise, and even substitute more relevant indicators that address a similar purpose. So, view our “situation analysis” assignment as looking through a narrow “scanning” window to see the wider market world.

This individual assignment is intended to achieve three objectives:

a)  Provide an understanding of how “external marketing environment” factors and “situation analysis” can influence marketing strategy plans

b)  Complete a hands-on intelligence “scan” using standard market indicators and a specific strategic “angle” of expertise for determining the marketing planning consequences (e.g., SWOT)

c)  Compare and combine the market intelligence indicators used by different students for particular strategic “angles” to acquire a more comprehensive knowledge of situation analysis influences.


Anatomy of the Leading Economic Indicators

When we deconstruct the leading economic indicators, it becomes apparent how that standard “basket” accounts for the key macro-economic market forces of supply, demand, savings, and investment. This “anatomy” of leading economic indicators also permits different parts to be substituted with other metrics that are more directly relevant to your individual strategic “angles” of expertise. Once dissected, the leading economic indicators can be interpreted with greater detail by applying the trend patterns to particular market factors that influence, an are influenced by, supply, demand, savings, and investment. Systems theorists use “causal influence diagrams” to chart and examine these kinds of interpretive patterns. We will also engage in causal influence analysis when we discuss the interpretation and consequences of your individual “scans.”

Leading Economic Indicators “Basket”
(Substitutes Added as Noted by Students) / Supply / Demand / Savings / Investments / Students
1. The United States Department of Labor’s monthly report on the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek hours from the Employment Situation report. (from the employment report) / X (Income)
2. The United States Department of Labor’s weekly report on first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. Initial jobless claims / X (Income)
3. The Census Bureau’s monthly consumer goods and materials report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders. (from the factory orders report) / X (B2C) / X (B2C)
4. The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly ISM Index of Manufacturing including: supplier deliveries, imports, production, inventories, new orders, new export orders, order backlogs, prices and employment. (from the Purchasing Managers' Index report) / X (B2B) / X (B2B)
5. The Census Bureau’s monthly non-defense capital goods report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders. (from the factory orders report) / X (B2B) / X (B2B)
6. The Census Bureau’s monthly report on building permits from the Housing Starts and Building Permits report. (from the housing starts report) / X (B2B) / X (Property/Land)
7. The S&P 500 as a good measure of stock equity price accounting for the 500 largest companies in the United States. / X (Equity)
* Missing:
- Commodities
- Precious Metals
- Currency
8. The Federal Reserve's inflation-adjusted measure of the M2 money supply / X / X (Time Deposits)
9. The difference (spread) between the interest rates of 10-year Treasury notes and the federal funds rate / X (Debt/Bonds)
10. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index's consumer expectations / X (psychol.)