Math 103 - Cooley Statistics for Teachers OCC

Classroom Activity #9 – Tootsie Pop Pull

In this lesson, students experience selection without replacement and the concept of the probability of zero. Students will also realize that the probabilities change from one pull to the next.

v  Learning Objectives

Students will:

·  Calculate probabilities without replacement.

·  Examine trends related to quantity and the

likelihood of an event (i.e, more likely or

less likely to occur).

v  Materials

·  Large bag or box.

·  Tootsie pops for everyone in the class.

v  Instructional Plan

Distribute the Tootsie Pop Pull Activity.

Count the number of students in the class that will be participating. Then, count that same number of Tootsie Pops. Record the total amount of flavors in the frequency distribution chart in the Tootsie Pop Pull Activity. Then place all Tootsie Pops in a bag or box. Make sure that the bag or box is not see-through. Have all students write down their favorite flavor in the space provided by their name on the activity sheet.

Pick a student at random. Ask the student what their favorite flavor is. (At this point, students can fill in this particular student’s name in the chart). Then ask if he or she was to reach into the bag or box at random, what would the probability be of obtaining that particular flavor. Here, an alternative approach is to have the class write down what the probability is, wait a moment, and then have the puller to state the solution out loud. After a correct answer, have the student reach into the bag or box and pull a Tootsie Pop. The student can now keep the Tootsie Pop.

Now, from each pick here on out, the pick is without replacement. So, the students will have to keep tallies on what has been pulled from the original sample.

Pick a second student at random, and repeat the process as of before. Pick a third, then a fourth, etc. until al students have been selected.

Keep in mind a few things. Make sure that the student’s original favorite flavor is still the flavor of choice on their pull even though their flavor might not be available in the bag due to prior pulls. Do not have students select their next favorite choice based on the current sample space. This will ensure the concept of a probability of zero.

v  Extensions

1.  How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop?

v  NCTM Standards and Expectations

Data Analysis & Probability 6-8

1. Compute probabilities for simple compound events, using such methods as organized lists, tree diagrams, and area models.

v  References

This lesson was created by TopCatMath.com.

Tootsie Pop Pull Activity Sheet NAME ______

FAVORITE FLAVOR ______

Frequency distribution:

Flavor / Frequency

Note: The original five-flavor mix is composed of Chocolate, Cherry, Orange, Grape and Raspberry. This

has been expanded to include a new sixth flavor that alternates among Lemon Lime, Watermelon, Blue Raspberry, and Pomegranate. Depending on which assorted pack(s) your teacher has purchased, you could possibly have anywhere from 5 to 9 different flavors.

Use this space below to keep tallies of the changes from one pull to the next.

Tootsie Pop Pull Activity Sheet NAME ______

FAVORITE FLAVOR ______

NAME / FAVORITE
FLAVOR / PROBABILITY
OF PULLING FAVORITE
FLAVOR / DID THE STUDENT GET HIS OR HER FAVORITE FLAVOR?
1ST PULL
2ND PULL
3RD PULL