Late Holiday Shopping Season 2017
Latest Forecast Should Make Holidays Bright for Retailers
•Although there have been disruptions, turmoil, bankruptcies and store closings, the retail sector is still in good shape, which has resulted in the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasting a 3.6 to 4.0% increase in 2017 holiday retail spending.
•Deloitte is filled with even more Christmas shopping spirit, with a forecast of a 4–4.5% increase for the November–January period, which could total $1.05 trillion. Its online sales forecast is 18–21%, or a total of $114 billion.
•AlixPartners’ prediction is more aligned with the NRF, at a 3.5–4.4% increase, as is RetailNext, at +3.8%, and a 14.9% increase in online holiday sales, while eMarketer’s forecast from August is 3.1%, but with e-commerce sales increasing 16.6%.
Consumers’ Expectations of 2017 Personal
Holiday Spending vs. 2016, August 2017
Expectation / Percent / Expectation / PercentMuch more than last year / 6.7% / Slightly less than last year / 11.4%
Slightly more than last year / 16.0% / Much less than last year / 9.9%
Approximately the same as last year / 49.7% / Don’t know yet / 6.3%
Fung Global Retail & Tech, October 2017
The 32 Days of Christmas
•For the late 2017 holiday shopping season, there are 32 days from Thanksgiving through December 24, and, more importantly, Christmas is a Monday, which means the weekend of December 23/24 will be one of the best opportunities for retailers for years.
•According to BestBlackFriday.com, 21 million, or 8.3% of all projected holiday shoppers had already completed their shopping by late September, but that is less than 2016’s 9.6%, so the remaining projected total is 62 million.
•A September Market Track survey found that Thanksgiving Day will attract fewer in-store shoppers this year, or just 30%, compared to 50% during 2016, while a Q3 PwC survey revealed only 35% said they will shop Black Friday, compared to 51% last year.
When Consumers Will Start and Complete
Their 2017 Holiday Shopping, September 2017
Begin Shopping / Percent / Complete Shopping / PercentSeptember / 25.87% / I am already finished / 8.30%
October / 13.32% / Before November / 8.69%
Early November / 22.59% / Black Friday/Cyber Monday / 10.04%
Black Friday/Cyber Monday / 3.71% / Early to mid-December / 53.28%
December / 24.52% / Week of Christmas / 19.69%
TWICE (BestBlackFriday.com), September 2017
In Pursuit of Holiday Shoppers, Take 1
•RetailMeNot’s 2017 Holiday Retail Trends and Guide reports that surveyed consumers said they would spend an average of $330 on children’s gifts; significant other, $196; parents, $105; siblings, $90; and best friends, 57%.
•RetailMeNot’s survey also revealed that the top 6 categories shopperswill search for holiday deals will be clothes/shoes, 53%; electronic, 51%; toys, 32%; jewelry, 16%; restaurants/entertainment, 15%; and travel, 15%.
Consumers’ Important FactorsWhen Choosing
Where to Shop for Holiday Gifts, August 2017
Factor / Percent / Percent#1: Quality of products / 57.8% / #8: Nice physical store for browsing/shopping / 34.3%
#2: Lowest prices / 56.6% / #9: Good after-sales service / 34.0%
#3: Location / 55.5% / #10: Good customer service before purchase / 30.8%
#4: Good availability of products I want to buy / 53.4% / #11: Certain products are only available at these retailers / 29.6%
#5: Large choice of products or brands / 48.2% / #12: Retailer offers rapid delivery of online orders / 29.4%
#6: Special offers or promotions / 48.1% / #13: Buy-online, collect-in-store service / 17.7%
#7: Free deliveries from retailers for online orders / 41.5% / #14: Other reason(s) / 6.6%
Fung Global Retail & Tech, October 2017
In Pursuit of Holiday Shoppers, Take 2
•When targeting teens (13–16-years-olds) for holiday shopping, retailers should post content on Instagram (57%) and YouTube (47%), according to PwC’s Holiday Outlook study. Older Gen Xers weren’t far behind, at 54% and 35%, respectively.
•Research from ThinkNow Research predicts that Latino Americans will spend 33% more and African Americans 39% more for 2017 holiday shopping than last year. In addition, 62% of Latino Americans will use their smartphone for purchases.
•The PwC study also found that retailers should be targeting Millennial dads (22–35) who are expected to spend more on their families than all other consumer groups, including more on travel, and will makea majority of their purchases online.
Most Sought-After Items Throughout the
2017 Holiday Shopping Season, August 2017
Research & Planning (Pre-Thanksgiving) / Deal Seeking (Cyber Week to Mid-December) / Last Minute (Mid-December–Christmas) / Post-Holiday (After Christmas)Clothing / Computers & Electronics / Health & Beauty / Personal Finance
Home & Garden / Department Stores / Department Stores / Health & Beauty
Designer Clothing / Toys & Kids / Accessories / Food & Entertainment
Accessories / Books
RetailMeNot, September 2017
A Very Merry E-Commerce Christmas
•According to Field Agent’s Fall 2017 Shopper Insights Report, based on more than 14,000 consumer survey responses, “78% are completely or very likely to buy gifts online this holiday season.”
•The survey respondents listed electronics, at 56%, as the top gift they are most likely to purchase online, with toys and entertainment close seconds at 55% each; followed by clothing/footwear, 51%; wearable accessories, 41%; and gift cards, 36%.
•The NPD Group’s Holiday Purchase Intentions Survey results indicate that online shoppers plan to spend 70% more than brick-and-mortar-only shoppers, at $793 and $467, respectively.
Consumers’ Planned Use of Retailer-SpecificMobile Apps
During Their 2017 Holiday Shopping, September 2017
Use / Percent / Use / Percent#1: Browse products / 64% / #6: See daily/weekly specials / 47%
#2: Make product purchases / 59% / #7: Determine if product is in-store / 44%
#3: Access coupons/savings/promotions / 56% / #8: Read a store’s weekly ad/circular / 33%
#4: Track shipments / 52% / #9: Locate products within a store / 32%
#5: Research products / 50% / #10: Scan barcodes (check prices) / 31%
Field Agent, September 2017
Amazon Under Almost Every Tree
•It’s hardly surprising that two independent surveys revealed that Amazon will be the #1 online gift-purchasing Website for the 2017 holiday shopping season, and at the same percentage: Fung Global Retail & Tech, 74.8%, and Field Agent, 74%.
•Better yet (for Amazon), the Fung Global Retail & Tech survey found that Amazon will be #1 of all SOURCES for 2017 holiday gift shopping, including brick-and-mortar stores. Target is a distant second at 48.2%, and Walmart is third at 47.6%.
•In addition, 81% of respondents to the Field Agent survey said they would use Amazon’s mobile app to plan, shop and/or buy gifts this holiday season; followed by Walmart, 62%; eBay, 34%; Target, 33%; Target Cartwheel, 30%; and Best Buy, 26%.
Top-Five Retailers for 2017 Holiday Shopping, by Age, October 2017
Retailer / 18–29 / 30–44 / 45–59 / 60+Amazon / 77.0% / 77.0% / 74.0% / 71.9%
Target / 55.3% / 58.3% / 48.4% / 29.7%
Walmart / 46.7% / 50.0% / 53.1% / 39.5%
Kohl’s / 26.3% / 27.4% / 35.4% / 25.4%
Best Buy / 28.3% / 25.2% / 25.0% / 19.5%
Fung Global Retail & Tech, October 2017
Additional Analysis
According to multiple sources, local businesses and small-business owners should be optimistic about 2017 holiday shopping. An August 2017 Vistaprintsurvey, The Consumer Small Business Shopping Report, of more than 1,500 consumersfound that 75.2% said they plan to shop for holiday gifts at a small business.
Of Borrell Associates’ monthly panel (July 2017) of local advertisers, 80% were optimistic that 2017 holiday sales would be as good or better than 2016.
Local Advertisers’ Optimism About 2017 Holiday Shopping Season, July 2017
Shopping Day / As Good as 2016 / Better Than 2016Christmas/Hanukkah / 40% / 46%
Thanksgiving / 46% / 29%
Black Friday / 23% / 51%
Cyber Monday / 22% / 66%
Borrell Associates, August 2017
It’s important for retailers to be aware of how winter weather affects holiday sales.
•Cold –A chill in the air triggers winter purchases; clothing and department stores benefit the most.
•Warmer – Warmer-than-normal temperatures move consumer focus to electronics, toys, home and non-seasonal products.
•Rain and Snow – Flurries can put consumers in a winter mindset, but too much inclement weather dampens store traffic and shifts sales online.
According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac winter 2017–2018 forecast, most of the Northeast will be mild and snowy, but southern New England, all of the mid-Atlantic and Southern Atlantic states, including Florida, and the eastern Midwest will be mild and wet.
Most of the Deep South and as far west as Arizona will be cold and snowy, while the southern Gulf region will be cold and wet. The mid-Plains states will be mild and snowy, but the northern tier (Wisconsin and Minnesota) will be mild and dry while the western Dakotas and eastern Colorado and Montana will be mild and wet.
The mountain states will be cold and snowy, including eastern Oregon and Washington while western Oregon and Washington and northern California will be cold and dry and mid- and southern California and southwest Arizona will be cold and wet.
Sources:National Retail Federation Website, 10/17; eMarketerWebsite, 10/17; Fung Global Retail & Tech Website, 10/17; TWICEWebsite, 10/17;MediaPost Website, 10/17;RetailMeNot Website, 10/17;Business Insider Website, 10/17;Field Agent Website, 10/17;Vistaprint Website, 10/17;Borrell Associates Website, 10/17;The Old Farmer’s Almanac Website, 10/17.
Updated: October 2017
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