JOBS AND TRAINING NEEDS REPORTS
Barwon South West
2018
August 2017
v1.0
Published by the Department of Education and Training Melbourne, September 2017
©State of Victoria (Department of Education and Training) 2017
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ISBN: 978-0-7594-0822-7
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Introduction
This report has been produced by the Department of Education and Training, for Training Providers, and summarises training needs for Barwon South West.
It combines the region’s labour market analysis with existing government subsidised vocational education and training (VET) activity to provide insights on the level of future training needs, for specific occupations in the region.
This report should be considered in conjunction with the Funded Course List for 2018, which lists courses available for government subsidy and targets those courses that will yield the most value to the Victorian economy and community. It will assist Training Providers to better align their proposed delivery in 2018 with the objectives of the Victorian VET system.
Overview
The Barwon South West region encompasses the south west of Victoria from the South Australian border to Geelong and Queenscliff, and from the south coast to the Southern Grampians.
The region is economically and socially diverse with three economies: one inland, while the coast is dominated by tourism and amenity lifestyles, and Geelong with a diverse economic and social base.
The region’s economy has been strongly influenced by the agriculture, manufacturing and tourism industries.
Regional Development Victoria reports that the region requires retention of skills and upskilling of workforce to attract key businesses. The economy is shifting towards service industries such as Health Care and Social Assistance. Barwon South West has potential to develop emerging opportunities in renewable energy, plantation timber, mineral sands mining, services tourism and biotechnology industries.
The Gordon and South West TAFEs deliver training across the region. GOTAFE delivers training from its campus in Terang.
INDUSTRIES
FIGURE 1: BUSINESS COMPOSITION (2016)
The following show the top five industries based on the share of total business establishments in 2016 for Barwon South West and their comparative proportions for Victoria.
Barwon South West
All Other Industries44%
Construction 15%
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 13%
Retail Trade 11%
Health Care and Social Assistance 9%
Accommodation and Food Services 8%
Victoria
All Other Industries 55%
Construction 15%
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 4%
Retail Trade 11%
Health Care and Social Assistance 8%
Accommodation and Food Services 6%
Source: WorkSafe Victoria, 2017
JOBS AND TRAINING
The following figures only show occupations that are supplied by VET graduates. Some of these occupations may be supplied by both VET and higher education graduates, for example Accountants. Occupations recurring more than once in figures 2 to 4 are noted to show the extent to which high volume job vacancies, and large forecast job demand, are reflected in 2017 forecast government subsidised training commencements.
FIGURE 2: ADVERTISED VACANCIES BY OCCUPATION (2017)
The top ten occupations based on the share of total advertised job vacancies in the 12 months to June 2017 for Barwon South West and their comparative proportions for Victoria.
Accountants Barwon South West 5% – also on figure 3
Accountants Victoria 3%
Sales RepresentativesBarwon South West 3%
Sales Representatives Victoria 7%
Sales Assistants (General) Barwon South West 3% – also on figure 3
Sales Assistants (General) Victoria 2%
Information Officers Barwon South West 3%
Information Officers Victoria 3%
Retail Managers Barwon South West 2%
Retail Managers Victoria 2%
General Clerks Barwon South West 2%
General Clerks Victoria 1%
Chefs Barwon South West 2% – also on figure 3
Chefs Victoria 1%
Truck Drivers Barwon South West 2% – also on figure 4
Truck Drivers Victoria 1%
Contract, Program and Project Administrators Barwon South West 2%
Contract, Program and Project Administrators Victoria 2%
Personal Assistants Barwon South West 1%
Personal Assistants Victoria 1%
Source: Burning Glass Technologies – Labour Insight Real-Time Labour Market Information Tool, 2017
Note: Data is based on internet vacancies only and may not reflect all job openings over the period
FIGURE 3: TOTAL OCCUPATIONAL DEMAND (2017–2021)
The top ten occupations based on the share of total forecast of demand for workers over the next 5 years for Barwon South West and their comparative proportions for Victoria. Demand for workers may arise from new jobs created, staff turnover and/or retirements.
Sales Assistants Barwon South West 15% – also on figure 2
Sales Assistants Victoria 9%
Checkout Operators and Office CashiersBarwon South West 7%
Checkout Operators and Office Cashiers Victoria 3%
Waiters Barwon South West 6%
Waiters Victoria 3%
Kitchenhands Barwon South West 6%
Kitchenhands Victoria 3%
Aged and Disabled Carers Barwon South West 5% – also on figure 4
Aged and Disabled Carers Victoria 2%
Child Carers Barwon South West 3% – also on figure 4
Child Carers Victoria 2%
Fast Food Cooks Barwon South West 3%
Fast Food Cooks Victoria 2%
Bar Attendants and Baristas Barwon South West 3%
Bar Attendants and Baristas Victoria 1%
Chefs Barwon South West 2% – also on figure 2
Chefs Victoria 1%
Accountants Barwon South West 2% – also on figure 2
Accountants Victoria 2%
Source: Deloitte Access Economics, 2017
FIGURE 4: COMMENCEMENTS BY OCCUPATION (2017 FORECAST)
The top ten occupations based on the share of total government subsidised commencements in 2017 (forecast) for Barwon South West and their comparative proportions for Victoria.
Truck Drivers Barwon South West 5% – also on figure 2
Truck Drivers Victoria 1%
Nursing Support and Personal Care Workers Barwon South West 4%
Nursing Support and Personal Care Workers Victoria 2%
Crane, Hoist and Lift Operators Barwon South West 4%
Crane, Hoist and Lift Operators Victoria 0%
Welfare Support Workers Barwon South West 3%
Welfare Support Workers Victoria 2%
Building and Plumbing Labourers Barwon South West 3%
Building and Plumbing Labourers Victoria 1%
Aged and Disabled Carers Barwon South West 3% – also on figure 3
Aged and Disabled Carers Victoria 2%
Earthmoving Plant Operators Barwon South West 3%
Earthmoving Plant Operators Victoria 1%
Child Carers Barwon South West 2% – also on figure 3
Child Carers Victoria 4%
Bus and Coach Drivers Barwon South West 2%
Bus and Coach Drivers Victoria 0%
Other Miscellaneous Labourers Barwon South West 2%
Other Miscellaneous Labourers Salespersons Victoria 1%
Source: Department of Education and Training, 2017
FIGURE 5: APPRENTICESHIP COMMENCEMENTS BY OCCUPATION GROUPS (2016)
The top ten occupations based on the share of total apprenticeship commencements in 2016 for Barwon South West and their comparative proportions for Victoria.
Carpenters and Joiners Barwon South West 14%
Carpenters and Joiners Victoria 18%
Plumbers Barwon South West 11%
Plumbers Victoria 12%
Building and Plumbing Labourers Barwon South West 8%
Building and Plumbing Labourers Victoria 2%
Electricians Barwon South West 8%
Electricians Victoria 11%
Earthmoving Plant Operators Barwon South West 7%
Earthmoving Plant Operators Victoria 1%
Cooks Barwon South West 5%
Cooks Victoria 4%
Chefs Barwon South West 5%
Chefs Victoria 4%
Bricklayers and Stonemasons Barwon South West 3%
Bricklayers and Stonemasons Victoria 2%
Painting Traders Workers Barwon South West 3%
Painting Traders Workers Victoria 1%
Hairdressers Barwon South West 2%
Hairdressers Victoria 5%
Source: Department of Education and Training, 2017
Note: Forecast data for 2017 not available
ADVERTISING EMPLOYERS
The following companies and organisations have advertised the largest number of job postings in Barwon South West in the 12 months ending June 2017 (ordered alphabetically). The data is based on internet vacancies only, and as a result, may not reflect all job openings over the period. Apprentices are generally employed by small firms and thus their employers may not be represented below.
Of the top advertisers in the region, public sector and affiliate organisations are strongly represented. Together with the health industry, these government entities or service providers represent nine of the top 20 advertisers in the region. The remaining top advertisers represent a wide variety of industry from community services to education and from recreation to retail.
It should be noted that the top advertising employers may recruit for a range of roles with different qualification requirements. Despite the presence of health providers in the top 20 advertisers, health-related occupations do not feature in the top advertised VET-related vacancies of the jobs and training figures 2 and 3 for the region. It is likely that most of the jobs advertised by health providers require higher education, not VET, qualifications. Conversely, Sales Assistants, Aged and Disabled Carers and Child Carers from figures 2 and 3 are consistent with the sectors advertising the most vacancies in the region.
•City of Greater Geelong
•Coles Supermarket
•Cotton On
•Deakin University
•Djerriwarrh Health Services
•Epworth Healthcare
•Estia Health
•Federal Government
•Geelong Grammar School
•Goodstart Childcare
•Karingal
•National Disability Insurance Agency
•Public Transport Victoria
•St John of God Health Care Group
•State Government
•Target Australia
•Transport Accident Commission of Victoria
•Warrnambool City Council
•Waterco
•Woolworths
Source: Burning Glass Technologies – Labour Insight Real-Time Labour Market Information Tool, 2017
TRAINING PROVIDERS
The following figure and table represent the share of government subsidised training commencements in Barwon South West by type of Training Provider, and the total number of Training Providers by Type, in 2016. The shares are broadly consistent with the statewide picture.
FIGURE 6: SHARE OF COMMENCEMENTS BY PROVIDER TYPE (2016)
TAFE 35%
Adult Community Education (ACE) 23%
Private 42%
Source: Department of Education and Training, 2017
TABLE 1: NUMBER OF TRAINING PROVIDERS (2016)
TAFE Barwon South West 4
TAFE Victoria 16
Adult Community Education (ACE) Barwon South West 26
Adult Community Education (ACE) Victoria 264
Private Barwon South West 77
Private Victoria 299
Source: Department of Education and Training, 2017
Skills requirement
Table 2 provides a guide for Training Providers on the nature and size of jobs serviced by VET training in Barwon South West, and anticipated jobs growth and associated demand for training in 2018, taking into account existing training patterns.
This information is intended to provide broad indications of VET demand. Depending on a range of factors, jobs displaying similar indicators of anticipated training related employment demand may have differing training requirements for 2018. For this reason jobs should not be compared, but considered individually. The information only applies to 2018 skills needs; the data will be revised on an annual basis to take account of the latest developments in the Victorian economy.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
Training related occupations: Occupations where VET training supplies all or some new entrants, or where VET training is undertaken to improve specific or generic skills for existing workers in, or seeking to enter, those jobs.
2017 employment: Estimated persons employed in the region in 2017, in occupations where VET training supplies all or some workers, based on Deloitte Access Economics’ whole of Government Labour Market Forecasts.
Anticipated 2018 employment demand: Estimated occupational demand for those holding VET qualifications in the region, based on new jobs created, staff turnover and retirements. Note that for some jobs, workers holding higher education qualifications or no qualifications may also be in demand, but these are excluded from the data. Results will range from:
- no additional VET graduates required
- minimal additional VET graduates required
- moderate additional VET graduates required
- significant additional VET graduates required
Anticipated 2018 additional training needs (Region)/(State): Estimated requirement for government subsidised VET commencements in 2018 in the region and in Victoria, based on current employment, anticipated employment growth and current training patterns. Results are presented as numeric ranges. Please note training requirements for a given occupation may be high in some regions and negative in others. When combined into a statewide requirement, these results may cancel out each other out. Hence a single region’s training requirement may differ significantly to the statewide requirement.
Apprenticeship option available: Jobs marked with the letter A indicate that one or more apprenticeships apply to it. Training delivery aligned to those apprenticeships is encouraged, irrespective of whether anticipated requirements for general (i.e. non-apprenticeship) courses aligned to the job are stable or decreasing.
Statewide priorities: Jobs aligned to Victorian Family Violence and National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) workforces, and general infrastructure (including rail) projects, are annotated with the letters F, N, I and R, respectively. As high profile Government initiatives, related job openings may increase more than the base anticipated employment demand across Victoria.
GUIDELINES FOR USE
Table 2 should be read in conjunction with Table 3 to link anticipated additional training needs for each job to the VET courses which supply graduates for those jobs. In proposing Program Delivery Plans, Training Providers should assess which courses on their scope, within the ANZSCO Sub-Major Groups, will best service the anticipated additional training needs.
Example 1
As indicated in Table 2, Agricultural Technicians have a relatively low employment base in the region (200 workers). It is anticipated that there will be no further employment demand for VET graduates (arising from new jobs created, staff turnover and retirements) for this occupation in 2018. This is indicated in the table. Additionally, no training commencements will be required in 2018.
The ANZSCO Sub-Major Group for Agricultural Technicians is Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians. Referring to this ANZSCO Sub-Major Group in Table 3, the course most aligned with Agricultural Technicians is the Certificate IV in Conservation and Land Management. Training Providers may wish to limit the number of places for this course in their Program Delivery Plans, due to the lack of anticipated employment demand, as explained above.
Example 2
As indicated in Table 2, Bricklayers and Stonemasons have an employment base in the region of approximately 800. Anticipated employment demand for VET graduates (arising from new jobs created, staff turnover and/or retirements) is increasing moderately, which suggests that some job openings may become available in 2018. Additionally, some new training commencements is anticipated for the region in 2018 in the 50-200 level, to meet this demand. Also of note, there are some Apprenticeship courses associated with Bricklayers and Stonemasons and they are associated withstatewide government priorities (infrastructure projects and rail projects).
The ANZSCO Sub-Major Group for Bricklayers and Stonemasons is Construction Trades Workers. Referring to this ANZSCO Sub-Major Group in Table 3, the courses most aligned with Bricklayers and Stonemasons are: the Certificate II in Building and Construction, Pre-apprenticeship; the Certificate III in Stonemasonry; and the Certificate III in Bricklaying/Blocklaying. Training Providers may wish to include these courses in their Program Delivery Plans, taking into account the range supplied in Table 2. As the Certificate III in Bricklaying/Blocklaying is an Apprenticeship, unlimited delivery is permitted and encouraged for this mode.
Notes
Apprenticeships:
Apprenticeship commencements are encouraged and no limits will be applied, due to the following specific needs of the occupations associated with these courses:
- long lead times - skills for these occupations are highly specialised and require extended training over three or more years, so the pipeline of apprentice graduates must be maintained irrespective of short term fluctuations in employment demand
- high use - skills are deployed for the uses intended, so there is a good occupational ‘fit’ between the course undertaken by the apprentice and the occupations
- high risk - disruption caused by skills being in short supply would impose a significant risk to the economy and/or community, particularly for occupations which have licensing and registration requirements.
Additionally, the rate of apprenticeship take up is closely related to available employment, given that apprentices and employers must enter into an employment contract. This promotes greater opportunities for ongoing employment once the apprenticeship is completed.
Region/State training indicators:
In some instances, occupations may display no anticipated 2018 additional training needs (indicated as zero in Table 2) at both the region and State Level. Courses associated with these occupations may still appear on the Funded Couse List 2018 and will therefore be government subsidised in 2018, in order to:
- cater for niche/thin market occupations which are important to the State or local economy and may require access to marginal levels of government subsidised training from time to time (including with the additional support of the Regional and Specialist Training Fund)
- allow for training in apprenticeship courses associated with those occupations should there be demand
- maintain stability of the Funded Course List in cases where the demand for training varies from year to year but the associated courses still show high economic or community value to Victoria.
Training Providers should still consider these courses in their Program Delivery Plans.