Is Russia closing the Transnistrianfolder?
By PetruBogatu, Jurnal TV
Being surprised by the internal cleavages, the press has missed the overthrow of the external situation ofthe Republic of Moldova. The gates that seemed to be opening have been closing. Today they seem locked.
The key is lost
Still the other day, Moscow (stimulated by Berlin) showed off an unprecedented optimism. The minister for Foreign affairs, SergheiLavrov, had declared that the Transnistrian problem is easier to solve than other cold conflicts from the Former Soviet Union. He suggested that the settling of the disagreement is just at a stone’s throw away.
Suddenly, the theatrical joy of the Kremlin has transformed into a false repugnance. The special representative of Russian Federation forTransinistria, SergheiGubarev, declared more recently that the disagreement can’t be solved. In order to smash all the illusions, he added that, actually, key of the settling of conflict is not held by Moscow. It is neither in Kiev, Brussels or Washington.
Briefly, Russia now suggests that there is nothing more to be done. Gubarev asserts that there aren’t solutions and that only the two parties could ever find a solution if they so wish. In other words, a restart is needed.Sisyphusstone which had seemed to be pushed really high is rolling back. Moscow suggests that Chisinau and Tiraspol may carry it if they are in the mood, because Russia will not.
The non-breathable air of consultations
This is pure comedy. We must view things in a larger context if we want to understand why and for whom the Russians are playing this embarrassing show. We will notice that they didn’t give up in vain on Transdniestria. On the contrary; they have prepared its discreet closing.
First of all, in an usual note of Russian diplomacy, they resorted to a series of diversions to create the impression that not Kremlin, nor Tiraspol, but Chisinau is evasive about thesettlement. That’s why for example, the ambassador ValeriKuzmincalled Smirnov’s emissary at a reception to be “minister for foreign affairs of Transnistrian republic”, causing a diplomatic scandal.
A short time after this, the Russian Ministry of External Affairs spread an official statement, in which the local elections from Moldova were declared false. The atmosphere turned out to be so poisoned, that the consultations’ air from Moscow on Transnistrian matter had become unbreathable.
“The parties’ positions are as contradictory as in the initial stage of the conflict”, Gubarev explains the fail of consultations, adding that the conflict is far from being solved.
A programmed failure
Russians havestarted looking in other directions, because they don’t want to be accused by Westerns of intentionally preventing the resolution of a relatively accessible conflict. They’ve suggested that the dispute inNagorno-Karabakh is actually easier to solve than the Transnistrian one. As a result, they announced that an updated document called the “basic principles” was to be signed during the Kazan summit under the patronage of President Dmitri Medvedev.
Believing Russians, world’s media had already anticipated the success. The Azerbaijani-Armenian reconciliation seemed to be close. But the deal was over as Baku and Yerevan’s leaders separated without even saying “goodbye”.
Shortly Stratfor announced that this was actually a programmed failure designed by the Russians. Other western experts also agreed. The well-known American political expert, Nina Hrusciova (the great-granddaughter of Nikita Hrusciov) said recently that on the one hand, Moscow needs the Western money and investments. On the other hand, it is obliged to keep its borders safe and away from EU and NATO reach, as the Euro-Atlantic expansion threatens Putin’s authoritative regime.
Due to these conditions, Moscow can only dissimulate. It canalways say that it is searching solutions for the conflicts in Transnistria or Nagorno-Karabakh. But behind the scenes, it is blocking any resolution. Hrusciova writes that the Russians have no interest to settle it, as they would lose the control over Moldova and Armenia. And she is absolutely right.
The Meseberg’s memorandum also failed
After the Kremlin understood that a new Kozak plan was doomed to fail, as USA and Romania totally disagreed, it closed the Transnistrianfile. The recent attack on Basescu, who was accused by the Russian diplomacy for the “justification of the fascist aggression” in 1941, comes during Moscow’s nervous breakdown due to the firmness Bucharest has resisted against its strategies on the Black Sea and Transnistrianinfluence zones.
From this angle we can also say that the Meseberg’s Memorandum also failed. The memorandum, signed between Russia and Germany the previous year, linked the Russian agreement for solving theTransdniestrianconflictwith the obligation an EU-Russia Security Council. In this defensive game, Merkel wantedPutin to win. Probably, Berlin hoped that bringing an European police mission and investing generously in projects of modernization, will translate into a gradual Europeanization ofTransnistria. This was the price of an indefinite deadlinefor the integration of Moldova in European Union. The Russians did not get trapped as they were influenced by the USA and Romania. This is not coincidental.
The German plan entails many risks as it neglects not only Chisinau’s resentments about any type of federalization, but also Washington’s and Bucharest’s immediate interests.Since the placement of American military bases in Romania, both the US and Romania don’t seem to accept the elimination of the Republic of Moldova from European Union club and its abandonment in the Russian influence sphere. Especially not for the sake of a doubtful regulation of Transnistrian problem.