Nfp.2019.doc

9/232/05

INVESTIGATING NATIONAL FIRE PLAN IMPLEMENTATION

IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO*

Curt Shepherd

Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (USA)

John Talberth

Ecology and Law Institute, Santa Fe, NM (USA)

Joseph M. Little

Department of Economics, University of Alaska—Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (USA)

Robert P. Berrens

Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (USA)

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* Research support was provided by the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Flagstaff, AZ (Carl Edminster) under Research Joint Venture Agreement (02-JV-11221615-039). The authors would like to thank the Forest Service personnel who spent considerable effort filling our data request; Susan Lee (Fire Coordinator, Southwestern Region), Paul Fink (Region 3, Forester), Tom Johnston (Fuels Specialist, Santa Fe National Forest), and Thomas Marks (Timber Management Officer, Cibola National Forest). All errors and opinions are solely those of the authors. Address correspondence to C. Shepherd, Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131; Email: .

Title: Investigating National Fire Plan Implementation in Northern New Mexico.

Abstract: To combat the threat of wildfire to the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), U.S. federal land management agencies have implemented a number of forest restoration and wildfire risk reduction programs. In the spirit of econometrically-based revealed preference analyses, the objective of this study is to investigate the pattern and determinants of U.S. Forest Service expenditures under theNational Fire Plan for wildfire risk reductionprojects in northern New Mexico. In general, results are consistent with risk reduction hypotheses, but also raise issues that hinge on how risk reduction, and its component parts, should be defined for a region defined by large areas of chronic poverty.
1. Introduction

To deal with the growing threat of catastrophic wildfires throughout the western United States, federal agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and National Park Service (NPS) sponsor a variety of programs designed to reduce fire risk on millions of acres of federal, state, and private lands. These programs are operated under the auspices of the National Fire Plan (NFP) and, most recently, the Healthy Forests Initiative (HFI).[1]

The size and scope of NFP and HFI programs relating to forest restoration and wildfire risk reduction is extensive, and growing. Between 2000 and 2002, United States Department of Agriculture and Department of the Interior (USDA and USDI) expenditures have risen from just over $1.5 to $3.2 billion (USDA/USDI 2002). In 2002, hazardous fuels reduction treatments were undertaken on 2.3 million acres; an additional 2.7 acres were treated in 2003. Like other regions of the west, wildfire threatens the physical and economic well-being of communities within and bordering forested lands in northern New Mexico.[2] Many of these communities have strong cultural and historical ties to adjacent forested lands. Besides reducing the risk to life, property and other capital assets, NFP/HFI programs also have the potential to generate economic benefits for forest-dependent communities throughout northern New Mexico. Many of which have long been afflicted by chronic poverty.[3] The confluence of high fire danger, rural poverty and traditional cultural reliance on small diameter wood products in the region underscores a need for developing a greater awareness of how federal agencies distribute NFP/HFI funds for the purpose of fire risk reduction (Gunderson 2001).

This analysis follows in the spirit of previous studies that econometrically analyze the revealed preferences of a government agency implementing a particular program. Most basically, a revealed preference analysis attempts to answer the question of whether a pattern of agency (or program) actions or expenditures is consistent with the expressed goals, or with some alternate objectives. There are a wide variety of econometric or statistically-based studies that follow from the initial revealed preference investigations of McFadden (1975 and 1976). Recent applications in resource and environmental contexts include, Berrens et al. (1999) to underground storage tank cleanup in New Mexico; and, Fernandez (2004) to water treatment on the US-Mexico border. While not based on econometric models, but of topical relevance, Mosely and Toth (2004) recently examined the conformity of NFP contracts with an implied preference for local job creation; they found evidence in the Pacific Northwestern region of the U.S. that consideration of local employment was a key determinant in the decision process. Here, the focus is on examining the pattern of NFP-related projects and associated expenditures in a unique geographic region.

Two avenues are taken to examine agency behavior in northern New Mexico within the context of the NFP and HFI. First, and most basically, a geographic information system (GIS) analysis is used to determine the distributional correlation between NFP/HFI project locations and census blocks with: (1) a predominately high fire risk rating; (2) high dependence on firewood; and (3) high incidence of poverty. Second, the significance and magnitude of factors influencing the pattern of NFP/HFI expenditures are analyzed econometrically. The primary purpose of this analysis is to determine the statistical relationships between NFP/HFI project expenditures in an area or site and wildfire risk reduction, while controlling for other socio-demographic factors in the surrounding area, and project types (with differences in underlying cost structures).

2. Background: Forest Policy Challenges in Northern New Mexico

As a geographical focus, the northern New Mexico study region includes the southern tip of the Rocky Mountains, and is a region of unique historical and social traditions, as well as stark economic contrasts. The region includes the metropolitan areas of Albuquerque and Santa Fe as well as rural towns, Indian pueblos, and Hispano villages. The mountainous and forested terrain of the region provides a common focal point for the citizens of the region; the threat that wildfire poses to the region’s forests provides another.

High wildfire danger presents the most significant danger in the wildland urban interface (WUI). The WUI is defined as the “line, area, or zone where structures and other human development meet or intermingle with undeveloped wildland or vegetative fuels” (USDA/USDI 1995). Due to the pattern of settlement in this region, the WUI is extensive in northern New Mexico, encompassing just under 1 million acres (Haskins 2004). New Mexico’s State Forestry Division has identified 85 communities at high risk from wildfire within these WUI zones (EMNRD 2004).

Many small rural communities rely heavily on the surrounding forest lands.[4] For example, Hispano villagers rely heavily on a variety of small diameter wood products such as poles, posts, vigas, and firewood to build and maintain their homes and farms and provide basic heating and cooking fuel (Gunderson 2001). Forestlands are also critical to Hispano villagers as reliable sources of water to maintain the traditional network of acequias that irrigate their croplands, and as sources of quality forage (Green 1998; Raish 2003). Pueblo Indians rely on nearby forests for many of the same uses but also rely on the biological diversity of nearby forestlands for a wide array of wild foods, medicines, and materials (Dunmire and Tierney 1995). A number of Native American ceremonial areas and religious shrines are located on forestlands near the Pueblos (Hurst 1972). The Forest Service has previously recognized the unique status of these lands (Hurst 1972).

Implementation of the NFP and HFI in northern New Mexico is further complicated by high rates of rural poverty. Northern New Mexico has the unfortunate status as one of the regions in the United States afflicted by high to severe rural poverty conditions which have persisted for decades (Nord 1997; ERS 2004). Moreover, it is one of the few regions where rural poverty is getting worse (Nord 1997). According to the U.S. Census Bureau, high rural poverty areas are defined as non-metro regions with a poverty rate of 20 percent or more based on 1999 incomes reported in the 2000 Census (ERS 2004). Roughly 50% of the land area of northern New Mexico is included in census blocks where poverty rates exceed this threshold (Haskins 2004). The presence of persistent rural poverty can intensify the negative impacts of wildland fire on communities that lack adequate resources to reduce or mitigate risk exposure (Niemi and Lee 2001). Poverty can constrain participation in risk averting activities and, as a result, increases risk exposure. Evidence from both survey-based contingent valuation and experimental settings has established that income is a strong predictor of whether or not a household engages in risk averting activity at all, as well as willingness to pay for such activities (Talberth et al. 2004). The threat of wildfire is compounded when one considers that impoverished communities are more likely to rely heavily on nearby forestlands for fuel wood for heating. This is certainly the case in many Hispano and Native American communities in northern New Mexico (Raish 2000). When fire occurs, the communities of northern New Mexico not only suffer disproportionate losses to market resources such as homes and structures but to non-market resources that help support their livelihoods.

3. A Brief Review of NFP/HFI Programs

Implementation of the NFP and HFI in northern New Mexico has been ongoing since 2001. Until recently, the NFP and HFI were operated as administrative level programs, with no overarching national legislative guidance. That changed in 2003, when President Bush signed the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA) into law.[5] The HFRA authorizes just over $810 million per year nationwide between 2004 and 2008 for fire risk reduction programs (e.g., hazardous fuels treatments) (HFRA 2003).

Title I of the HFRA gives explicit direction to prioritize hazardous fuels reduction treatments near WUI communities identified as being at high risk from wildfire as determined by the Secretaries of Agriculture and Interior in a list published in 2001. With respect to traditional cultural uses, there are special provisions of the HFRA designed to enhance forest stewardship, watershed protection, and restoration needs on tribal and pueblo lands.[6] In particular, the HFRA emphasizes the protection of water supply systems critical to Pueblos and Hispano communities who rely on small ditches, reservoirs, or canals for drinking and irrigation water.[7]

Against this regulatory backdrop, federal agencies in northern New Mexico are implementing the NFP and HFI by directly funding projects on federal lands and by providing grants to the State of New Mexico, local public agencies, tribal agencies, rural or urban fire departments, community organizations, non-profit organizations, and small businesses. NFP/HFI related projects are designed to reduce hazardous fuels, assess and reduce wildfire risk, build firefighting capacity, develop markets for small diameter wood products and biomass, and revitalize rural communities.[8]

4. Descriptive Distributional Analysis of Projects

To gain a better understanding of where, in the region, NFP/HFI projects were planned between 2000 and 2004 a cursory distributional analysis was conducted. The U.S. Forest Service provided the NFP/HFI project data, which includes: (1) a list of all projects funded under the NFP and affiliated programs (e.g., Rural Fire Assistance, Rural Community Assistance, and Forest Land Enhancement) from 2000 through 2004, (2) brief descriptions of the nature of each of the projects (i.e. thinning, prescribed burning, hazard assessment, small diameter utilization, restoration), the project’s size (acres), and general project location (latitude and longitude), (3) a financial summary of each project indicating the total expenditure (NFP and other sources) on each project to date.[9] Expenditure information was not available for a select number of the listed projects. A listed and approved project may simply not have had any expenditure as of 2004; e.g., due to timing, or prescribed actions (burns, etc.) that were planned may not have been carried out due to unfavorable conditions. In total, 455 projects are listed from2000 through 2004; with expenditure data available for 373 of the projects. Over the five-year period NFP/HFI related project expenditures in the study area totaled approximately $30 million.

To carry out the distributional analysis, project coordinates were matched to the census block in which the project was located. Of the 455 identified NFP/HFI projects that were planned from2000 through2004, coordinates (latitude/longitude) were provided for 438 observations. These projects were, accordingly, matched to a census block. The analysis compares the percentage distribution of planned NFP/HFI projects in a census block to fire risk, incidence of poverty, and firewood dependency. The topics of comparison coincide with the primary objectives of the HFRA (e.g., fire risk reduction, supply of small diameter wood products, economic development).

Fire risk data were obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture General Technical Report RMRS-87 titled “Development of Coarse-Scale Spatial Data for Wildland Fire and Fuel Management” which was prepared for the Departments of Agriculture and Interior (Schmidt et al. 2000).[10] The Coarse-Scale Fire Risk Map classifies WUI locations into three distinct risk zones. Low risk zones are characterized by relatively sparse numbers of small trees and little ground fuel. The composition of the fuel types in these zones constrains the intensity of wildfires (Schmidt et al. 2000). Moderate (or medium) risk zones are characterized by higher densities of small trees and brush with considerable ground fuel. The composition and abundance of fuels in moderate risk zones sometimes lead to higher intensity burns in some areas (Schmidt et al. 2000). High risk zones are characterized by heavy fuel loads which consist of substantial amounts of dead material and high densities of smaller trees which extend into the canopies of larger, older age trees. The composition and abundance of fuels in the area lead to high intensity, rapid crown fires (Schmidt et al. 2000).

Besides providing descriptions of fire risk, the Coarse-Scale Fire Risk Map Data sheds light on the composition of forest fuels in the study area. In particular, the Coarse-Scale Fire Risk Map indicates that the study area contains all three risk zones, which means that the fuel types in the region extend from small trees and grass to older and larger mature timber.

Data on the degree to which households depend on firewood for a primary heating source were obtained from the 2000 U.S. Census. Firewood dependency is used as a proxy for dependency on small diameter wood products.[11] Information on the incidence of poverty was also obtained from the 2000 U.S. Census. The Census Bureau classifies a census block as having a high incidence of poverty if 20% or more of the households in that block fell below the federally defined poverty line (USCB 2000).

To ease analysis, the census blocks have been categorized into three strata high, medium, and low. The classification depends upon the composition of the census block with respect to the topic of interest. Figures 1 through 3 provide a visible description of the number of NFP/HFI projects by strata. The distributional analysis is presented in Table 1.

Figure 1 illustrates the distribution of NFP/HFI projects with respect to fire risk. Census blocks were classified into three strata based on the fire risk class – high, moderate, or low – that comprise the bulk of the land area within a particular block. As shown in Figure 1, there were 213 projects in the high fire risk stratum, 161 in the moderate fire risk stratum, and 66 in the low fire risk stratum. In Table 1 we can see that the high fire risk stratum represents 16.8% of the northern New Mexico landscape, the moderate risk stratum 58% and the low risk stratum 20.6%. The distribution of planned NFP/HFI projects between 2000 and 2004 is consistent with emphasizing the high fire risk stratum. In particular, there were 30% more NFP/HFI projects located in the high fire risk strata than would be expected under a proportional distribution, 22.6% less in the moderate risk stratum, and 6.1% less in the low risk stratum.

Figure 2 illustrates the distribution of planned NFP/HFI projects with respect to the incidence of poverty. Census blocks were classified into three strata based on the percentage of households in each census block whose per capita income fell below the poverty line in the year 2000. The strata corresponding to the following percentages of a census block that fall below the defined poverty level. The high poverty stratum consists of census blocks where 20% or greater of all households fell below the poverty line. The medium stratum is comprised of census block where 10% to 19% of all households fell below the poverty line. The low stratum consists of census blocks where less than 10% of all households fell below the poverty line. A total of 186 planned projects were identified to fall in the high poverty incidence stratum, 214 in the middle poverty incidence stratum, and 38 in the low poverty incidence stratum. The high poverty incidence stratum represents 49.8% of the northern New Mexico landscape, the middle stratum 35.3% and the lowest stratum 31.1%. The distribution of NFP/HFI projects from2000 through2004 has tended to emphasize the middle poverty incidence stratum and de-emphasize census blocks that fall into either the high or low poverty incidence strata. In particular, there were 9.1% more NFP/HFI projects located in the middle poverty incidence strata than would be expected under a proportional distribution, 7.3% less in the high poverty incidence stratum, and 1.8% less in the low poverty incidence stratum.