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International Peace & Prosperity Project
Ottawa, Canada
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MISSION STILL POSSIBLE:
Three Keys to Peace & Prosperity in Guinea-Bissau
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INTRODUCTION
Since 2004 the International Peace and Prosperity Project (IPPP) has regularly reported on the progress, opportunities, and obstacles that Guinea-Bissau faces on its road to peace and prosperity.
The IPPP is a political violence prevention project in Guinea-Bissau which began in 2004. The IPPP approach features sustained, holistic, integrated activities conducted by mobilizing and supporting local leadership. The IPPP acts as a catalyst to assist the citizens of Guinea-Bissau, the government, and international actors to implement concrete, synergistic actions through dialogue and targeted projects. It provides small grants to strategically stimulate security and development initiatives. Furthermore, it undertakes global advocacy to mobilize international resources for violence prevention and peacebuilding in Guinea-Bissau.
This paper is a follow-up to a previous IPPP report entitled ‘MISSION POSSIBLE: A Ripe Opportunity to Avert Violent ConflictAnd Achieve Sustainable Peace in Guinea-Bissau’ (March 2005). That report asserted that several opportunities existed, yet urged that caution was warranted because there were significant potential triggers for violence that were not fully addressed at that time.
The IPPP believes that the mission of achieving stability, peace, and prosperity in Guinea-Bissau is still possible. However, a core of key challenges remains. Moreover, those challenges now load heavily onto the democratically-elected leaders of the country. The people want peace and are looking to their leaders, especially President Vieira and leaders of the major political parties, to create a stable, political environment marked by transparency in governance and sound financial management that will give confidence to the international donor community.
So, while the government of Guinea-Bissau has demonstrated some reasons for hope, visible and competent political leadership is required to ensure that the country does not regress. The aspirations of individual political leaders must be elevated above short-term personal and partisan gain to focus on the long-term well-being of the country.
HOPEFUL DEVELOPMENTS IN GUINEA-BISSAU
Since the release of the IPPP’s March 2005 report, some hopeful developments have taken place in Guinea-Bissau.
Strategic Planning:
In February, 2006, the IPPP facilitated a four day multi-issue, multi-actor workshop to produce a comprehensive National Action Plan for Peace and Prosperity in Guinea-Bissau. The dynamic planning event was attended by some 20 key leaders representing all sectors of society. It constituted an important opportunity for generating a detailed conflict analysis and creating space for dialogue about the problems identified. Additionally, the event produced a comprehensive Action Plan in which several immediate, medium, and long-term activities were specified. This document has, in combination with the UNDP-supported Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and the Security Sector Reform Strategy, served as an important framework for guiding prevention, development, and peacebuilding work in Guinea-Bissau.
Some specific initiatives arising from the National Action Plan were:
1- an assessment by Search For Common Ground leading to a proposal for the transformation of culture through media programming.
2- a study into the feasibility of creating Small Business Incubator Centres.
3- a workshop to generate new ways to boost cashew production, processing, and exports (the country’s main export).
Economic Development:
While poverty on its own is not an indictor that political violence will occur, it is commonly agreed that chronic and severe poverty is a risk factor for violence when other risk factors are also present[1].
Unfortunately, Guinea-Bissau continues to be one of the world’s poorest countries while containing other risk factors predictive of violence. Yet, the potential for economic development and the political will to reduce poverty are reasons to hope given the country’s wealth of untapped resources and some promising business activities, including small practical developments, are evident.
Activities that are addressing poverty and stimulating economic development in Guinea-Bissau are:
· At an international Donors’ Conference held in November, 2006 at the UN in Geneva, several governments pledged assistance to Guinea-Bissau, including short-term measures to alleviate government salary arrears to help clear the way for longer-term IMF support. This constitutes an important signal to Guinea-Bissau that the international community is prepared to support it.
· As noted above, the government has completed a National Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and has secured partial international funding to implement the strategy.
· Recognizing the importance and potential of the cashew nut industry in Guinea-Bissau, the IPPP supported PLACON, the umbrella organization for NGOs, to hold a well-attended and practically-focused workshop in December 2006 with the aim of finding ways to boost cashew production income.
· Interest has been expressed by the Washington-based economic development NGO, ACDI/VOCA, in undertaking value-chain assessment of the cashew industry.
· The Fisheries Ministry is discussing a new deal with the EU concerning fishing arrangements off Guinea-Bissau’s coast.
· In August of 2006, Brazil pledged to help Guinea-Bissau’s search for offshore oil resources (this partnership has been embodied in a signed Memorandum of Understanding).
· There has been increased cooperation with China, including the possible rise in investment in Guinea-Bissau.
· Whereas there was only one privately owned bank in Guinea-Bissau three years ago, several have now opened or are planning to open.
· The IPPP supported a new initiative organized by the Bissau Chamber of Commerce to hold a regularly-occurring trade fair, beginning with its first exhibit in November 2006.
· Diversification of the economy is being pursued via several means (e.g. promoting Guinea-Bissau’s tourism, fishing, and minerals potentials).
· The IPPP commissioned a study on the feasibility of creating Small Business Incubator Centres in Guinea-Bissau and is exploring ways to launch one centre as a pilot.
Infrastructure:
Adequate infrastructure is required for the improvement of the quality of life, the development of the economy, and the commencement of exports. Earlier reports from the IPPP noted that there was very little infrastructure in Guinea-Bissau, but some growth has occurred as of late. For example:
· In November 2006, the EU announced that it will finance the reconstruction of roads in and around Bissau.
· The World Bank announced that it would provide funding to improve the electricity sector.
· The World Bank announced that it would provide funding to assist in restoration of the port.
· New cell phone service providers have been increasing.
· Fire trucks from the USA were donated to Guinea-Bissau in 2006.
· The central market burned down in February 2006 causing thousands of dollars in damage and conceivably many more in lost revenues but efforts have been taken to rebuild the central market.
· Some privatization of government assets is being planned to improve performance.
UNADDRESSED TRIGGERS FOR VIOLENCE
While the numerous activities mentioned in the above section are impressive, some of the most serious specific potential triggers for violence that were cited in the last IPPP report remain unresolved.
GOVERNANCE
Despite the importance of ensuring good governance in Guinea-Bissau, there appear to be more reform activities taking place in the economic sector than in either the governance or security sectors.
As noted earlier in this report, however, the international community demonstrated a growing confidence in Guinea-Bissau as displayed by the pledges made at the recent donors’ conference in Geneva.
Recent reprimands by the World Bank and the EU for failing to demonstrate transparency and to curb spending do show that good governance remains a key challenge and that without it, international support can easily fall off.
RECONCILIATION
It is commonly held by several internal and external actors that National Reconciliation is a key to making progress on matters of governance and development. Indeed, President Vieira has identified it as one of his two priorities, along with the reform of the armed forces.
Nevertheless, reconciliation in Guinea-Bissau is a very complicated matter, especially as it is closely tied to the call from some that amnesty be granted to former mutineers and political assassins. Guinea-Bissau has a troubled past marked by several coups, various attempted and successful politically-motivated assassinations, and major armed conflicts (see the last section of this paper for a timeline of key events). These events have damaged relationships between key figures in Guinea-Bissau that has contributed in turn to the current negative tension at the governmental level. This tension is being manifest in several ways, including the current blockages in communication and failure to achieve elite accommodation at the political level.
Reconciliation therefore needs to take place at several levels between different actors. Various ‘divides’ in the country must be bridged, and healed. For example, the military has divides within it along tribal lines. The military is also divided from the populace. Politicians and various branches of government are divided from each other, and there are divides within particular political parties. Moreover, there is a political-military divide in the sense that the military has been seen in the past to operate independently of the government.
More than lip service to “national reconciliation” is required now. Without national reconciliation, festering grievances, mistrust, and past practices of deception and achieving dominance by power will continue.
SECURITY SECTOR REFORM (SSR)
SSR continues to be a primary need in Guinea-Bissau. Over the last year, there have been three assessments of SSR needs by the Security Sector Development Advisory Team (SSDAT) of the United Kingdom. These assessments were used to create the SSR Plan presented successfully at the Geneva Donors’ Conference. While this is an important first step towards SSR, money must follow verbal commitment and additional technical support will be required to implement the activities of this ambitious plan.
PROGNOSIS AND OUTLOOK
‘While several sources still view Guinea-Bissau as a Failed State[2], current developments suggest that it might be better viewed as an extremely Fragile State that is on the long and difficult road to becoming Stable’
This report concludes that Guinea-Bissau can still achieve peace and prosperity if the most urgent potential triggers can be addressed in the very near future.
Because the three key triggers are closely interlinked, multiple parallel processes to address all three are needed. This type of comprehensive approach requires coordination and collaboration of efforts, internal to the government and among international actors.
However, it is important to harbor no illusions about the length of time needed for these changes to occur: it is conceivable that 5-10 years or more will be needed to identify and institutionalize the necessary deep structural changes that are instrumental in preventing violence in Guinea-Bissau.
NEXT STEPS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
…for the IPPP:
The IPPP in Guinea-Bissau is half-way through its third year of programming. The IPPP will continue to lobby internationally on behalf of Guinea-Bissau, and continue to provide technical support to implement some remaining strategically important activities identified in the February 2006 National Action Plan.
Focusing more directly on the potential triggers for violence noted here, the IPPP will begin new initiatives that support political mediation. It will make a larger contribution to the reconciliation movement within Guinea-Bissau and support Security Sector Reform.
During 2007, the IPPP will also conduct a reflective practice exercise that includes a summative evaluation and the development of a short operational manual on preventing political violence based on the IPPP model emerging through its experience in Guinea-Bissau.
The IPPP will also begin to plan an exit strategy so that the good relationships that it has developed and enjoyed are preserved and that its eventual withdrawal from Guinea-Bissau will not be a destabilizing factor.
…for the Government of Guinea-Bissau:
ü The government of Guinea-Bissau must make good on it’s commitments at the Donors’ Conference to ensure that the funding which was pledged is delivered by the donor community so that the PRSP and SSR plans can be implemented.
ü The government should fully support and participate in appropriate reconciliation processes so that real changes can be made towards being a fully-functioning and healthy democracy.
ü The government should continue to pursue all actions that improve transparency, financial management and institutional reform that lead to good governance.
…for Civil Society within Guinea-Bissau:
ü Civil society needs to continue to play the vital and unique role that it is positioned for in promoting reconciliation, improving good governance, protecting civil rights, and ensuring the well-being of the citizens of Guinea-Bissau.
…for other INGOs:
ü The international community needs to be responsive to progress made by the government of Guinea-Bissau and be prepared to further reinforce this progress with more funding.
ü INGOs should ensure that any development work they do has a conflict sensitivity/prevention component.
ü INGOs should continue to support Guinea-Bissau’s civil society via forming new partnerships and regional networks with them.
…for UNOGBIS, the UNDP, and ECOWAS:
ü Take the lead in coordinating governance reform-related work.
ü Monitor, coordinate, and collaborate with all key actors at a country level to ensure that all three triggers are adequately addressed.
TIMELINE OF KEY EVENTS IN GUINEA-BISSAU
The following chart provides a timeline of some key events in Guinea-Bissau.
DATE / EVENT1974 / Independence from Portugal
1976 / US Embassy opens in Bissau
March 1977 / Guinea-Bissau joins the International Monetary Fund
1980 / Military coup
1994 / First free election
31May1995 / Guinea-Bissau becomes a member of the World Trade Organization
December 1997 / Anti-Personnel Mine-Ban Treaty signed
1998 / Military mutiny and resulting civil war
June 1998 / US Embassy suspends operations
1998 / Peace Corps withdraws
November 2000 / Coup attempt
April 2001 / Constitution Revised
2001 / The National Mine Action Coordination Center (CAAMI) established offices in Guinea-Bissau
2002 / ECOSOC Ad Hoc Advisory Group formed
September 2002 / Interim National Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper(I-NPRSP) completed
11 November 2002 / quadripartite consultations
2003 / President Kumba Yala ousted by coup
August 2004 / NPRSP completed
October 2004 / General Verissimo Seabre Correia killed by soldiers in revolt for unpaid salaries
October 2004 / IPPP commences in-country violence prevention activities
June-July 2005 / Peaceful presidential elections
November 2005 / NPRSP revised to account for new priorities (e.g. SSR needs)
March 2006 / Military operations to expel rebels from the Cassamance region – this action sparks wide debate
March 2006 / launch of “Estados Gerais” – a national reconciliation initiative
June 2006 / Guinea-Bissau joins the World Bank’s Multilateral Investment
Guarantee Agency (MIGA)
July 2006 / Guinea-Bissau hosts the CPLP Summit
September
2006 / Bissau declared safe from mines
November 2006 / Successful Donors’ Conference in Geneva
Planned for 2007 / Implementation of the NPRSP and SSR Plan
2008 / Presidential Elections Scheduled
Annex A