AND
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION
FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones
Fortieth session
Colombo, Sri Lanka
25 February to 1 March 2013 / FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLY
WRD/PTC-40/Doc. 5.4, ADD. 1
(18.II.2013)
______
ENGLISH ONLY
REVIEW OF THE COORDINATED TECHNICAL PLAN AND CONSIDERATION OF
THE WORK PROGRAMME FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS
TRAINING COMPONENT
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Competencies
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and Purpose of Document
This document was drafted by BoM Australia under the auspice of WMO/TCP. It outlines some standards/requirements of tropical cyclone competencies based on BoMpractices. It is presented to this Session as basic reference to facilitate discussions on developing WMO Tropical Cyclone Competencies which shall be established as part of overall WMO Competency Standards.ACTION PROPOSED
The 16th WMO Congress recommended WMO/TCP to establish tropical cycloneforecasting competence standards. The Session is invited to discuss and give suggestions leading to the development of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Competencies.
______
Appendix:Requirements for a Tropical Cyclone Forecaster
WRD/PTC-40/Doc. 5.4, ADD.1, p. 1
Requirements for a Tropical Cyclone Forecaster
Overview
The establishment of formal competencies for Tropical Cyclone (TC) operations is part of the overall WMO Competency Standards which are a key element of the broader ambition to implement the WMO Quality Management System (QMS) set out in WMO Cg-16.
The competency approach is essential for defining what is required to do the job, developing the most appropriate training and to demonstrate forecasters can do the job.
These competencies have been devised to be consistent with the actual work in TC Warning offices and other tropical cyclone services.
As well as those listed under particular elements, the following are required:
- General weather forecasting and forecast preparation skills;
- General synoptic analysis techniques (including data limitations);
- Ability to analyse and synthesize a range of data types in order to apply relevant weighting to each data type where appropriate;
- Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) – interpretation of model output; knowledge of model strengths and limitations; and model comparisons.
Unit Descriptor
This competency unit is relevant to forecasters working in a TC warning office. It covers the provision of operational TC services at an unsupervised level. It includes:
- TC analysis and forecasting;
- Determining the potential weather and storm tide impacts;
- Formulating policy and issuing of products; and,
- Communicating/delivering briefings, interviews and presentations.
1. Analyzebroadscale environment and determine TC position, intensity and structure
Description
A range of observational information is analyzed to interpret the broadscale environment, the position, intensity and structure of the tropical circulation.
Performance criteria
1.1Analyses the broadscale environment to assess the likely influence on the disturbance in a range of situations;
1.2Determines location of centre and current movement in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations;
1.3 Determines intensity in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations;
1.4 Determines structure in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.
Background knowledge and skills
Skills in:
- Using data viewing software and other applications in the forecast process;
- Interpreting observations, weather radar and satellite derived information such as scatterometry and cloud drift winds;
- Interpreting satellite imagery including water vapour, visible, infra-red, and microwave for TC analysis;
- Using Dvorak technique for cyclone centre location and intensity estimation;
- Estimating the intensity from a number of inputs;
- Interpreting wind shear from shear analyses and prognoses;
- Assessing the environment for motion and intensity changes;
- Interpreting NWP guidance material.
Knowledge of:
- Local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- Observation networks;
- Capabilities and limitations of different observational data types;
- TC structure dynamics and conceptual models;
- Synoptic factors that affect the intensity including shear, ocean temperatures, upper-level flow, stability, landfall, vorticity and low to mid-level moisture;
- Strengths and limitations of Dvorak technique, ADT, AMSU intensity estimation, SATCON and other intensity analysis guidance.
2. Forecast TC track, intensity and structure
Description
A range of information including numerical weather prediction NWP and objective aids in addition to an understanding of conceptual synoptic forecast approaches are used to forecast the track, intensity and structure in warning products that are issued in accordance with documented procedures.
Performance criteria
2.1 Interprets NWP-predicted broadscale environment to assess the likely influence on the disturbance in a range of situations;
2.2 Determines forecast track in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations;
2.3Determines forecast intensity in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations;
2.4 Determines forecast structure in accordance with procedures and timelines in a range of situations.
Background knowledge and skills
Skills in:
- Evaluating model predictions against observed conditions to assess the most likely forecast environment for motion and intensity changes;
- Interpreting NWP guidance material including ensemble output to determine forecast uncertainty;
- Using software systems to determine forecast parameters;
Knowledge of:
- Local cyclone policy and forecast process;
- Relative strengths and limitations of NWP in predicting cyclone movement, structure and intensity;
- Synoptic factors that affect TC motion and intensity;
- Consensus track forecasting techniques;
- Intensity forecasting methods including conceptual models of decay;
3.Determine potential weather impacts
Description
The impacts of high winds, rainfall, waves and storm surge are determined for key locations according to appropriate thresholds and including estimates of uncertainty.
Performance criteria
3.1 Forecast extent of cyclonic winds (e.g. gales, storm force) and onset times for key locations using available guidance in a range of situations;
3.2 Forecast rainfall using available guidance in a range of situations and liaise with Hydrology to determine potential flooding;
3.3 Forecast waves and swell using standard techniques;
3.4 Forecast storm tide potential considering various track and intensity scenarios and confidence levels (worst case, most likely, alternate track/intensity).
Background knowledge and skills
Skills in:
- Using software to determine range of impacts;
- Interpreting NWP guidance material;
- Assessing rainfall potential including eTRaP, consensus model guidance (OCF, PME) and probabilistic rainfall guidance;
- Determining onset, extent and associated uncertainties of weather phenomena;
- Storm surge forecasting;
Knowledge of:
- Local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- Potential impacts in a range of synoptic situations;
- Wave and storm surge theory;
- Local climatology of cyclogenesis;
- Storm tide theory and warning techniques;
- The level of threat posed by storm surge heights.
4.Formulate policy and issue TC products.
Description
Local forecast production systems are used to produce and disseminate a range of products according to local operating procedures.
Performance criteria
4.1 Liaise effectively with internal staff in the development of tropical cyclone policy and the impact on other services;
4.2 Formulates TC policy in accordance with procedures in a range of situations;
4.3 Determines the appropriate key messages for general and technical audiences in a range of situations;
4.4 Issues the range of TC products in accordance with procedures and timelines in a range of situations.
Background knowledge and skills
Skills in:
- Using appropriate software to produce warning products;
- Communicating with colleagues to arrive at policy decisions;
- Internal time management to produce the range of products on time;
- Compiling policy, products and key messages for different audiences;
- Converting technical concepts into concise and easy to understand language;
Knowledge of:
- Local cyclone policy and operating procedures;
- User needs and significant impact thresholds;
- Product styles and standards;
5.Communicate relevant TC information to internal and external stakeholders.
Description
Forecasters are required to communicate information to internal and external users appropriate to their needs.
Performance criteria
5.1 Logically structures briefings and presentations to contain relevant, accurate and complete information;
5.2 Delivers briefings, presentations and interviews to suit the intended audience explaining technical information in concise, clear and easy to understand language.
Background knowledge and skills
Skills in:
- Compiling policy, products and key messages for different audiences;
- Converting technical concepts into concise and easy to understand language;
- Facilitating and engaging in communication exchanges;
- Using equipment for presentations.
Knowledge of:
- Principles of effective communication, including presentation and interviews;
- Presentation and meeting formats and requirements;
- Legislation, regulations, policies, procedures and guidelines relating to workplace communication in the public sector such as privacy, confidentiality, freedom of information.
Regional variations
The context of these competencies will change from office to office:
-Regional climatology and impacts;
-Regional geography especially as how it affects hazards including storm tide, rainfall and wind;
-Observation networks including surface, upper air, weather radar, aircraft;
-Variation in products issued and briefing requirements;
-Forecast systems, operational websites;
-Boundaries of forecast areas;
-Communication language(s);
-Procedures for handling external enquiries;
-Procedures and technology for warning transmission and for briefings;
-Local forecast procedures and thresholds;
-Risk assessment and estimation of forecast uncertainties;
-Types and use of forecast guidance.
______