Illinois Job Index

Illinois Job Index

Release
5/29/2017 / Data
Jan 1990 / Apr 2017 / Issue
2017.5 / www.real.illinois.edu

For April 2017 Illinois Job Index, Illinois had employment decline while the nation and RMW had job growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

¯ / May
2017
Negative / Mar 2017 – Apr 2017 / Last 12 months / Apr 2017
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.14 / 211,000 / 1.56 / 2,237,000 / 9.71
RMW / 0.06 / 11,500 / 1.10 / 222,900 / 9.43
Illinois / -0.12 / -7,200 / 0.37 / 22,100 / 9.20

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes / §  Illinois lost 7,200 jobs in April 2017, compared with a revised 7,700 job loss in March 2017. Compared to April 2017, Illinois has added 22,100 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed a decrease of 50 jobs per month.
§  The Nation added 211,000 jobs at a rate of 0.14%, compared with a revised 79,000-job gain in March 2017. The three-month moving average was up by 174,000 jobs per month.
§  The RMW added 11,500 jobs in April after a revised 22,800 job loss in March 2017. The three-month moving average was up by 9,600 jobs per month.
§  The state of Illinois now has 44,100 more jobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession started.
§  In 2017, Illinois had employment growth for 2 months and employment decline for two months.
§  Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, and Information.
§  Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 445,600 new jobs.
§  By April 2017 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for every sector except Information, Financial Activities, and Leisure & hospitality.
§  The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.20%, 9.43% and 9.71%, compared to official unemployment rates of 4.7%, 4.1% and 4.4%.
§  Through April 2017, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 14.44%, 19.48%, and 33.78%, respectively.
Nation
Notes / §  Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 211,000 jobs. Sectors such as Leisure & hospitality, Education & health, and Professional & business services had major job growth.
§  The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 7,650,000 additional jobs since the last employment peak in December 2007. RMW have also recovered from its peaks in 2000 but Illinois have not.
§  The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2017 were -0.01%, -0.24%, -0.38%, 0.09%, 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12%, 0.03% and 0.13% respectively.
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
April 2017
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 146,063,000 / 133.78 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 36,878,000 / 7,650,000
RMW / 20,419,500 / 119.48 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 3,328,900 / 15,000
Illinois / 6,029,300 / 114.44 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 761,000 / -24,700
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – April 2017
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates May 2016 –Apr 2017

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure 791,500 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 445,600. Adding 321,200, the number of additional jobs that needed to be created after taking shadow unemployment rate into account, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create 791,500.

**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 445,600 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through May 2017.

Employment Growth Rate by Sector:

Total Non-Farm Employment growth rate by Sector, March 2017 – April 2017
Sector notes / §  Illinois posted negative employment change in April 2017 by shedding 7,200 jobs. Six out of ten sectors recorded net gains. Compared to March 2017, Information (-0.10% to 1.31%) had the greatest performance gain, while Other Services (0.68% to -0.40%) had the greatest performance loss. Government (-0.25% to 0.05%), Education & health (-0.14% to 0.28%), Professional & business services (-0.33% to 0.13%), Financial Activities (-0.10% to 0.10%), Manufacturing (0.11% to 0.33%) and Construction (-3.13% to 2.08%) experienced performance gains too, while Leisure & hospitality (0.60 % to -0.40%) and Trade, transportation & utilities (0.02 % to -0.59%) also experienced net losses in performances.
§  In April at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o  Leisure & hospitality: 55,000 (0.35%)
o  Professional & business services: 39,000 (0.19%)
o  Education & health: 41,000 (0.18%)
§  Information (7,000 less jobs at -0.26%) lost jobs at the national level in April.
§  For Illinois, the top-three sectors that gained jobs in April were:
o  Education & health: 2,600 (0.28 %)
o  Manufacturing: 1,900 (0.33%)
o  Information: 1,300 (1.31%)
§  The top three sectors that lost jobs in April in Illinois were:
o  Trade, transportation & utilities: -7,100 (-0.59%)
o  Leisure & hospitality: -2,400 (-0.40%)
o  Construction: -4,500 (-2.08%)
§  For Illinois, three sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 350,000 jobs, Construction is down 18,500 jobs and Information has 30,100 fewer jobs.
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector June 1990 – April 2017
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -18,500 / -8.03 / 19.46 / 26.84
Manufacturing / - / - / -350,000 / -37.95 / -23.32 / -30.35
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 56,700 / 4.94 / 9.15 / 20.51
Information / - / - / -30,100 / -23.10 / -20.69 / 2.43
Financial activities / - / - / 19,500 / 5.23 / 20.77 / 27.88
Professional & business services / - / - / 368,900 / 64.49 / 79.97 / 91.19
Education & health / - / - / 398,700 / 75.35 / 78.13 / 113.44
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 212,500 / 55.35 / 41.15 / 70.68
Other Services / - / - / 44,000 / 21.40 / 24.25 / 35.75
Government / - / - / 69,900 / 9.25 / 10.99 / 23.08
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –April 2017
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-Apr 2017 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-Apr 2018 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / 8,000 / 12.54% / 3,900 / 6.11%
Manufacturing / -114,600 / 17,500 / 15.27% / 15,200 / 13.26%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,700 / 84,400 / 86.39% / 73,100 / 74.82%
Information / -11,300 / -4,200 / -37.17% / -1,500 / -13.27%
Financial activities / -32,600 / 19,200 / 58.90% / 31,300 / 96.01%
Professional & business services / -92,300 / 167,500 / 181.47% / 160,400 / 173.78%
Education & health / 33,800 / 107,300 / - / 121,100 / -
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 84,500 / 378.92% / 91,900 / 412.11%
Other services / -5,900 / -6,400 / -108.47% / -7,100 / -120.34%
Government / 6,000 / -31,500 / - / -32,300 / -

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector / §  During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced employment declines. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
§  Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services, and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 12.54%, 15.27%, 86.39%, 58.90%, 181.47% and 378.92% respectively from the jobs lost during the recession.
§  By April 2017, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
§  However, the recovery rates for Information and Other Services are still negative, namely -37.17% and -108.47%.
§  The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for every sector except Information, Financial Activities, and Leisure & hospitality.
Construction / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -2.08 / -4,500
RMW / -1.07 / -8,900
Nation / 0.07 / 5,000
Manufacturing / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.33 / 1,900
RMW / 0.11 / 3,100
Nation / 0.05 / 6,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.59 / -7,100
RMW / -0.19 / -7,300
Nation / 0.07 / 19,000
Information / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 1.31 / 1,300
RMW / -1.05 / -3,000
Nation / -0.26 / -7,000
Financial activities / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.10 / 400
RMW / 0.34 / 3,700
Nation / 0.23 / 19,000
Professional & business services / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.13 / 1,200
RMW / 0.52 / 13,400
Nation / 0.19 / 39,000
Education & health / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.28 / 2,600
RMW / 0.06 / 2,000
Nation / 0.18 / 41,000
Leisure & hospitality / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.40 / -2,400
RMW / 0.34 / 6,900
Nation / 0.35 / 55,000
Other Services / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.40 / -1,000
RMW / 0 / 0
Nation / 0.12 / 7,000
Government / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017 / Mar 2016 - Apr 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.05 / 400
RMW / 0.05 / 1,400
Nation / 0.08 / 17,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.

Illinois Jobs Index / release 5/29/2017 / www.real.illinois.edu / page 9