EUROSTAT
Directorate D: Economic and Regional Statistics
Unit D-1: Key Indicators for European Policies /
Euroindicators
Working Group
Luxembourg, 4th and 5th December 2008
I.WELCOME – ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA
1.1 Welcome
Nikolaus Wurm (Eurostat), the chair of the Working Group welcomed participants and introduced new Euroindicators staff.
1.2 Adoption of agenda
The agenda was adopted as structured. However, due to practical considerations the ordering of the points was re-arranged. The minutes are structured as detailed in the original agenda.
II. WORK PLAN FOR EUROINDICATORS AND EUROTREND
2.1 Main achievements of 2008 and future activities for 2009
Gian Luigi Mazzi (Eurostat) presented the main achievements of 2008 concerning PEEIs/Euroindicators special topic, outlined in Doc 226/08.
2.2 Future challenges for Principal Economic Indicators PEEIs - Steering Group
Nikolaus Wurm (Eurostat) presented the Report on PEEIs Steering Group activities, outlined in Doc 227\08.
DE (Bundesbank) thanks for the Report and mentions the point 7 of the document. DE expresses agreement with the emphasis on improving accuracy and reliability of data, less on improvements in timeliness. Eurostat informed the Steering Group said that possible improvements in timeliness can be implemented, not in detriment of accuracy and reliability. There is a clear benchmarking, when willing to improve timeliness.
PL asks whether there is amendment to STS regulation which reduces the target date of transmission regarding the PEEIs Industrial output price index for domestic markets. Eurostat explains that there is no foreseen drastic change for that indicator, as the current delay is 33 days and the target to be reached is 30 days.
III. EUROINDICATORS/PEEIs SPECIAL TOPIC
3.1 Improving the PEEIs webpage
Rosa Ruggeri Cannata (Eurostat) presented the developments of the PEEIs webpage, outlined in Doc 228\08.
DE (Bundesbank) expresses appreciation to the new PEEIs webpage presented last year and the improvements. DE asks about the differences between the indicators from the list and the ones presented in the webpage, as there are some additional indicators. Eurostat explains that the economic analysis is enhanced by complementing the original list with some additional indicator (such as the dollar exchange rate). So, the PEEIs webpage is not completely coincident with the official list, in fact the word “Selected” was used in labeling the PEEIs Indicators webpage. It was mentioned in the News Released dedicated to the new page. Also, for transparency’s sake a footnote on the webpage explains that fact.
3.2 The predefined tables in the new TGM interface
Gaetana Montana (Eurostat) presented the restructuring of the predefined tables in the new TGM interface, outlined in Doc 229\08.
ECFIN expresses appreciation to the TGM interface and mentions the possibility to develop a similar tool or something connected to it. ECFIN expresses interest in cooperation with Eurostat in order to use the graphical interface for data such as the Business and Consumer Surveys, which are available on ECFIN webpage.
3.3 The Eurostat Business Cycle Clock
Gaetana Montana (Eurostat) presented the Eurostat Business Cycle Clock, outlined in Doc 230\08. The Eurostat Business Cycle Clock is on line in the Eurostat webpage since July 2008.
IV. EUROIND DATABASE
4.1 Annual assessment on ongoing changes
Agnieszka Politewicz (Eurostat) presented the annual assessment and ongoing changes, outlined in Doc 231/08.
ECB suggests to exclude the non available time series from the contents of the database, keeping only the available series (stopped, inactive or active). Eurostat answers that there are structurally missing series, which might be removed from the database, and real missing series. In the latter case, knowing the non available series is a useful information in order to work with and request to member states the supply of missing data series.
4.2 Improving Euroind metadata
Justyna Gniadzik (Eurostat) presented the improvement of the Euroindicators metadata, outlined in Doc 232-a/08.
4.3 PEEIs quality profiles
Justyna Gniadzik (Eurostat) presented the PEEIs quality profiles, outlined in Doc 232-b/08.
V. EUROTREND ACTIVITIES
5.1 Report for the Flash Consortium -Part 1
Dominique Ladiray (FR/INSEE) presented the final report of the findings of the two phases grant about Flash estimates of some PEEIs, outlined in Doc 233/08.
UK (NIESR) asks about the stability of the model structure, about the model ranking which might be changing (when deriving models over time) and about having any sense of persistence of good performance of the model. INSEE answers that robustness tests have been carried out, therefore the model shown was selected among the most stable models.
5.2 Report for the Flash Consortium -Part 2
Fabio Bacchini (IT/ISTAT) presented the final report of the findings of the two phases grant about Flash estimates of some PEEIs, outlined in Doc 234/08.
DE (Bundesbank) expresses concerns about the use of AR component in the model for Flash estimate, as the model can work for certain time interval (2005 and 2006). But the model can not detect the bad performance of production for example in the first quarter of 2008 for Germany. And the Flash estimate provided by the model should be strongly revised in the future. All that can be misleading for the policy makers. INSEE notes that using this model the estimate would not be bad. INSEE explains the reasons making an example with the GDP. The GDP is on quarterly basis. But, if using monthly data and at least 2 months per quarter, in the case of the turning point arriving at the third month then the estimate of GDP would be a good one (as the first 2 months were good). Being the model quite good, turning points are detected by it.
DE (Bundesbank) wonders if statistical offices should deliver such flash estimates and publish them as reliable numbers. INSEE answers that as far as INSEE is concerned, it would publish such estimates.
UK (NIESR) states that when willing to produce a flash indicator, it can only be done on the basis of historical relationship of the indicators-variables and the variables one can be interested in. Then, when something completely out of the previous experience happens, it can not be expected the indicator working very well. And statistical offices should publish those calculations for user, (so that the users do not have to do that for themselves), and also provide estimates of the reliability of the calculations. In principal, statistical offices should be doing like any other number they publish. Eurostat states that inside Eurostat there is not answer to that question. There will be a t+30 estimate of GDPpublished at some point in time, that is still on going and taking a lot of discussion.
5.3 Report for the Flash Consortium - Part 3
Graeme Chamberlin (UK/ONS) presented the final report of the findings of the two phases grant about Flash estimates of some PEEIs, outlined in Doc 235/08.
ECB asks if it was considered the inclusion of hard data from short term statistics. ONS answers hard data were not explicitly considered, instead ONS based the estimation on data, which were available from the EuroIndicators database.
5.4 Towards a monthly indicator of economic activity
Massimiliano Marcellino (IT/EUI) presented the methodology to construct a monthly indicator of economic activity (EuroMIND), outlined in Doc 236/08.
OECD asks if this indicator will be used soon. EUI and Eurostat answer that it was presented at academic conferences and meetings. Though it has raised interest especially in policy institutions, it is still at confidential level. In fact, belonging to a statistical office means having some constrains and need of time before the official publication of the indicator.
5.5 Structural VAR based estimates of the output gap and their use when forecasting in the Euro zone
Martin Weale (UK/NIESR) presented the paper on the use of structural VAR based output gap estimates in business cycle analysis and their use on forecasts, outlined in Doc 237/08.
VI. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
6.1 Implementation of ESS guidelines on seasonal adjustment
Gian Luigi Mazzi (Eurostat) presented the implementation and strategy of the ESS guidelines on seasonal adjustment, outlined in Doc 238/08.
DE (Bundesbank) expresses appreciation to the guidelines especially for the practical use in every day work. DE has used the guidelines in training programs as standards for unskilled people in seasonal adjustment.
6.2 The impact of the seasonal adjustment process of business tendency surveys on turning points dating
Dominique Ladiray (FR/INSEE) presented the impact of different seasonal adjustment methods on the chronology of turning points, outlined in Doc 239/08.
DE (Bundesbank) notes that they would not considerate the use of the Dainties method, as it is not taking into account the calendar adjustment. INSEE agrees that Dainties is not a method, which is recommended by the guidelines on seasonal adjustment. INSEE states that it has been argued why to expect to find some trading days effect in Business surveys, as those are based on people’s opinion.
VII. ONGOING COLLABORATION WITH DG ECFIN
7 Ongoing collaboration with DG ECFIN
Gian Luigi Mazzi (Eurostat) described the ongoing cooperation with DG ECFIN, outlined in Doc 240/08.
DG ECFIN agrees with the strong cooperation and collaboration between Eurostat and DG ECFIN, stating that DG ECFIN is opened to developments of further cooperation for example in the areas of turning points analysis, of flash estimates, of the move to NACE 2.
VIII. REVISIONS
8.1 A new PEEIs revisions database
8.8.1 Building up a revisions database
Rosa Ruggeri Cannata (Eurostat) presented the Eurostat’s PEEIs Real Time Database, outlined in Doc 241/08.
DE (DESTATIS) asks if some statistics about data per revisions will be added in the dissemination. Eurostat answers this is in discussion. In 2008, some projects were carried out with MaastrichtUniversity concerning the identification of statistical and econometrical measures for revisions. Other collaborations with experts are ongoing in order to define and implement some simple and sophisticated statistical measures of revisions in terms of IT. When the database will be available, a problem to be solved will be how to interface the existing revisions measures with the database, in order to facilitate the use.
8.8.2 OECD/Eurostat Task Force on revisions: Outcome and implementation at the ECB
HeinzChristianDieden(ECB) presented the implementation of the Task Force at the ECB.
8.2 Some principles for revisions policy
Gian Luigi Mazzi (Eurostat) presented the principles for revisions policy, outlined in Doc 242/08.
DE (Bundesbank) expresses appreciation to the general principals of revision policies, which ECB has managed together with Eurostat, OECD and the memberStates. DE (Bundesbank) states that it is difficult to find a common revision policy; a first step should be the harmonization of documentation and information for the users about revisions, and secondly the revisions themselves should be harmonize. Eurostat expresses appreciation to the template proposed by the ECB. Eurostat adds that in principal a starting point for the harmonization of the documentation on revisions is the new system of metadata, with gives the possibility of having a special section dedicated to revisions. Also, a creation of a common revisions policy should start from a good communication of the existing revisions practices.
8.3 Revisions policy for National Accounts
Jukka Jalava(Eurostat) presented the revisions policy for the National Accounts, outlined in Doc 243/08.
ECB states that for National Accounts there is a high degree of harmonization especially on released calendar. Then ECB asks for any advice to achieve this result for other indicators, taking into account that in particular for short term indicators the National Statistics Institutes have very divergent performances (some are very fast for certain indicators, other institutes are fast for different ones). That has impact on the European aggregates.
Eurostat answers that there is a regulation, but also Eurostat strongly cooperates with National Accounts working group, with CMFB and with member States. There is a transmission programme with deadlines, however strategies of cooperation and discussions with Member States to find what is possible and feasible are commonly used.
8.4 A new methodology for revisions analysis
Alain Hecq (MaastrichtUniversity) presented a new methodology for revisions analysis, outlined in Doc 244/08.
Eurostat states the need of stabilisation of the data before that certain signals may emerge. For example, in the last year and in many papers there were evidences about a slowing down of the convergence within the euro area countries. This may be the case. Or it may be the consequence of the instability of the data. Then, certain conclusions might be drawn after few years, not immediately.
IX. PUBLICATIONS
9.1 The new Eurostatistics publication
Gaetana Montana (Eurostat) presented the new Eurostatistics publication, outlined in Doc 245/08.
9.2 Other publication
Agnieszka Politewicz (Eurostat) presented other Euroindicators on line publication, outlined in Doc 246/08.
DE (Bundesbank) suggests clearness on which criteria used by Eurostat for the publication of Selected Readings. Eurostat states that Selected Readings are compiled, not taking in consideration any orientation of the economists. Eurostat does not give any value judgments, it just gives an offer of possible readings.
9.3 The new PEEIs publication
Justyna Gniadzik (Eurostat) presented thenew PEEIs publication, outlined in Doc 247/08
X. GENERAL OVERVIEW OF EUROTREND ACTIVITIES
10.1 General overview of Eurotrend activities
Filippo Moauro (Eurostat) presented the Eurotrend activities carried out at Eurostat in the last two years, outlined in Doc 248/08.
XI. CONTRIBUTIONS FROM MEMBER STATES
11.1-a A monthly indicator of the French Business Climate
ChristielleMinodier (FR/INSEE) presented the monthly indicator of the French Business Climate, outlined in Doc 249-a/08.
11.1-b Detecting economic regimes in France: a turning point index using mixed frequency data
ChristielleMinodier (FR/INSEE) presented the turning point index using mixed frequency data, outlined in Doc 249-b/08.
ECB asks about the chart showing the French Business Climate and the GDP growth expressed in year on year percentage changes. AS in the business surveys, the questions refer to the previous 3 months or the next 3 months, ECB wonders how the overall climate indicator would work with the quarter on quarter change in GDP.
INSEE answers that the quarterly GDP growth rate fits very well with the 3 months difference of the Climate, but not with the level of the Climate.
Eurostat asks if in the model the questions or the sectors are differently weighted or there is the assumption of no weight/constant weight. INSEE answers that there is no application of any weighting system.
11.2 Belgian GDP Flash Estimation after 30 days
Isabelle Brumagne (National Bank of Belgium) presented the application of the Flash estimate of the quarterly GDP in the Belgian national accounts, outlined in Doc 250/08.
11.3Measuring output gap in Lithuania 1997-2007
Jurga Ruksenaite (Statistics Lithuania) presented the measurement of Lithuania’s output gap by different statistical methods, outlined in Doc 251/08.
XII. NEWS FROM EUROSTAT
12.1 Improvement in service statistics
Isabelle Remond-Tiedrez (Eurostat) presented the improvement in services statistics within the short term statistics regulation, outlined in Doc 252/08.
12.2 Improvements in the calculation of monthly unemployment figures
Hanna Kiiver (Eurostat) presented the improved methodology for the calculation of monthly unemployment, outlined in Doc 253/08.
XIII. TOOLS
13.1 New Demetra 2.2
Cristina Calizzani (Eurostat) presented the new Demetra, (version 2.2), outlined in Doc 254/08.
13.2 Towards a new tool for seasonal adjustment: Demetra +
Cristina Calizzani (Eurostat) presented the new tool under construction for seasonal adjustment: Demetra +, outlined in Doc 255/08.
DE (Bundesbank) asks if Demetra + will be based on X-12 Arima and Tramo-Seats or if there will be added something new. Eurostat answers that the new additions will be in terms of technologies and functionalities. The additions can allow the fully implementation of the guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment. Eurostat notes that Demetra is good tool for teaching purposes and it is used by many member States, which send seasonally, adjusted data to Eurostat. The development of Demetra + will provide more flexibility, the possibility to incorporate new tools, routines and facilities. Eurostat is expecting that Demetra + will be used by the member States as much as Demetra was used in the past.
INSEE states that the new Demetra will contain diagnostics, (some of them new) and interactive graphs.
XIV. ANY OTHER BUSINESS
No more point was raised.