How much do POTUS approval ratings impact midterm elections?

  1. How accurate was your prediction?
  2. What story does the data tell?
  3. Why do you think that presidential approval ratings impact congressional elections?
  4. According to Gallup Polling, Donald Trump currently has an approval rating of around 40%. If Trump's approval rating remains constant, according to the data above, approximately how many House seats will the Republican Party lose?
  5. Evaluate the following statement by explaining what is incorrect about it. "When I vote in a midterm election, I am voting for a member of congress, not the president."
  6. According to the chart above, what year had the biggest midterm election loss for the president's party?
  7. What is a midterm election and why do we have midterm elections?
  8. Imagine there is a proposal to hold US elections every four years. The term of the POTUS would remain at 4 years, the term of the US House would be 4 years, and the Senate term would be 8 years. Explain whether you think this would be a good idea.
  9. How much of an influence do you think Donald Trump will have on the 2018 midterm elections?
  10. Some critics refer to America as perpetually voting. Is that true?
  11. Is that good?
  12. Why does Donald Trump have such a low approval rating?
  13. Do you think there is anything he will be able to do about his dismal approval ratings?*
  14. Imagine that Donald Trump's approval ratings remain basically constant. How will that affect his ability to pass legislation in a Republican majority House and Senate?
  15. If you could vote, how much do you imagine that Donald Trump will influence your voting decisions in the 2018 election?
  16. Regardless of approval ratings, what tends to happen to the party of the POTUS in midterm elections?*
  17. What are some aspects of the US electoral system that will keep Trump's unpopularity from hurting Republicans too much in the midterm elections?

Learning Extension

538 is already writing about the drag Donald Trump will be on Republican campaigns in 2018. Check it out.

Action Extension

Contact the White House and explain one thing the POTUS could do to improve his approval rating.

Bonus Chart*

Bonus Chart**

© 2017 Jonathan Milner