Housing Needs and Supply Topic Paper

Housing Needs and Supply Topic Paper

1.0Background

1.1Tamworth is a small, densely populated Borough covering 12 square miles with a population of 75,700[1]. Formerly a network of villages, since the post-war years the population has tripled due to the relocation of inner-city Birmingham residents. This has lead to the majority of the land in the Borough being developed and characterised as an urban settlement.Where land hasn’t been developed it is heavily constrained,with a significant amount of floodplain though large parts of the remaining countryside and also greenbelt to the South.

1.2Tamworth’s housing market is relatively self contained however there are strong ties with settlements surrounding Tamworth but within other Local Authority areas, notably Lichfield andNorth Warwickshire.

1.3This paper provides a background to the overall housing position within the Borough and set out in the Tamworth Local Plan 2006-2028. It focuses on identified needs set out in the Southern Staffordshire Housing Needs Study, previous requirements set out in the Structure Plan (1996-2011) and West Midlands RSS (2006-2026) and supply identified through the SHLAA, published in 2011 and then updated in May and October 2012.

2.0Housing Needs

2.1Tamworth Borough along with Lichfield District Council and Cannock Chase Council commissioned Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (NLP) to undertake a study into the future population, household projections and housing needs of the area. The study[2] set out the potential scale of future housing requirements for Tamworth based upon a range of housing, economic and demographic factors, trends and forecasts. Each scenario is detailed below:

2.2Demographic Factors

Scenario A-Baseline Scenario

This scenario involves projecting net-inward migration over the period 2011-28 as set out in the ONS 2008-based Sub-national population projections (SNPP)which identified 800 people moving into Tamworth. This scenario also looked at international net migration (neutral), a falling Total Fertility Rate, and falling Standard Mortality Rate alongside a slow rise in life expectancy. These factors lead to a population increase of 6,000 in Tamworth from 2011-2028. Combined with a strong trend towards smaller household sizes this leads to a projected growth of 4,369 dwellings (257 dpa). Taking account of dwelling vacancy rates and second homes this generates a need of 5,817 dwellings from 2006-2028 (264 dpa)

Scenario Aa- Baseline Scenario Sensitivity Test (Separate Age Specific Migration Rates 5 year (ASMigRs))

Calculated for both in and out domestic migration, based upon the age profile of migrants to and from Tamworth over the previous 5 years.

Generates a need for5,271 dwellings from 2006-2028. (240 dpa)

Scenario Ab- Baseline Scenario Sensitivity Test (Separate Age Specific Migration Rates 10 year (ASMigRs))

As with the above but over a 10 year period.

Generates a need for5,666 dwellings from 2006-2028. (258 dpa)

Scenario B: Baseline Scenario: HSSA Vacancy Rates

Used the Baseline scenario but included a sensitivity test using the 2011 vacancy returns for each authority.

Generates a need for 5,795 dwellings 2006-2028 (263 dpa)

Scenario C- Zero Net Migration

This scenario examined migration rates on an equalised basis so that net in/out migration is zero for both domestic and international levels.

Generates a need for 5,468 dwellings 2006-2028 (249 dpa)

Scenario D- Changes in Institutional Population: Constant Share

This scenario assumed a constant level of residents ‘not in households’ aged over 75+.

Generates a need for 5,658 dwellings 2006-2028 (257 dpa)

Scenario E- 2008 based ONS/CLG Scenario

The 2008-based ONS population projections estimate that the population of Southern Staffordshire will increase by 26,100 people between 2008 and2028, equivalent to 1,305 people per annum. CLG household projectionsestimate this to be equivalent to a rise in households by 20,000 over theperiod 2008-2028 (rounded to the nearest 1,000). This is equivalent to anadditional 1,000 additional households per annum. Taking this back to 2006and taking into consideration the vacant/second homes rate for each of thethree districts, results in a need for 6,231 dwellings in Tamworth over the 22 year period, 2006-2028 (283 dpa)

Economic Factors

Scenario F- Forecast Job Growth

Economic-led scenario based upon the baseline forecasting models for the three districts provided by GHK and Experian. Experian’s job forecasts for Tamworthsuggest a growth of 637 jobs for 2011-2028. Modelling identifies that to maintain a labour force with sufficient people to underpin jobs (assuming that the ratio of jobs to workers remains constant and unemployment is reduced) would require higher in-migration significantly above that which has been observed.

Generates a need for 6,220 dwellings 2006-2028 (283 dpa)

Scenario G- Past Trends Job Growth

The past trends scenario calculated ten year historic trends using ABI data from 1998 to 2007/08 and applied to the above 2011 baseline data. Total jobs would increase by 4,703 jobs in Tamworth. This is significantly higher than the Experian growth forecasts indicating that prospects of future growth are much lower than what has happened recently. Consequently this figure is not considered to represent an accurate portrayal of the future development needs of Tamworth.

Generates a need for 11,150 dwellings 2006-2028 (507 dpa)

Scenario H: Static Employment Growth Scenario

This economic scenario examined the housing implications of a static level of job creation between 2011-2028 to reflect ongoing economic uncertainties, with migration figures adjusted accordingly.

Generates a need for 5,445 dwellings 2006-2028 (248 dpa)

Housing Factors

Scenario I: Past Dwelling Completion Rates

This focused on delivery rates over a 10 year period in which an average build rate of 219 dpa has been achieved in Tamworth.

Generates a need for 4,818 dwellings 2006-2028 (219 dpa)

Scenario J: Regional Spatial Strategy Requirement

Although the Localism Act 2011 made provision for the abolition of RegionalStrategies [RS], the housing requirements contained within them (and theprocesses undertaken to arrive at them) still continue to provide a benchmark andremain, arguably, a valid indicator of local requirements. In addition due to the delays in the process of their abolition they still form part of the statutory development plan.

The Report of the EiP Panel for the West Midlands Regional Spatial StrategyPhase Two Revision concluded that Tamworth should provide 4,000 dwellings from 2006 to 2026, 200 dpa.

Requirement of 4,400 dwellings 2006-2028 (200 dpa) – this rolls on the

RSS requirement by two years: 200 x 2 = 400.

2.2Summary of Scenarios

The following table summarises the average need of all the scenarios:

Scenarios / Total Need / Annual Need
Aa to J / 5,995 / 272
Aa to J (excluding G) / 5,526 / 251

2.3It is considered that taking an average of each of the scenarios, with the exception of the Past Trends Job growth approach (G), is the most suitable approach in establishing an overall housing need for Tamworth as each option has relative strengths and weaknesses in formulating an overall housing need. Approach G has been excluded because it is considered to represent an inaccurate picture of future development needs of the Borough based on Experian growth forecasts and economic forecasting set out as part of the Employment Land Review (2012).

2.4Consequently the average need of each of the scenarios (excluding G) for Tamworth equates to an overall need of 5,526 dwellings which has been rounded to a need of 5,500 dwellings for the period 2006 to 2028.

3.0Regional Housing Requirements

3.1Further to the scenarios identified in the housing needs survey and the subsequent established need of 5,500 dwellings it is important to look at the different requirements relating to the Staffordshire and Stoke-On-Trent Structure Plan and the West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy. Policy CF3, Table 1, of the adopted RSS (first published in 2004) indicates annualised housing figures for Staffordshire of 2900 up to 2007, 2500 from 2007 to 2011 and 1600 from 2011 to 2021. There is no separate figure for Tamworth so a number of approaches could be used for identifying the level of housing that should be provided.

1. The first approach was to apply the Structure Plan proportions to the annualised housing figures for Staffordshire set out in the adopted RSS. The Structure Plan figure for the period 1996 – 2011 for Staffordshire was 51,800 of which 5,000 was to be built in Tamworth. This represents a proportion of 9.65% for Tamworth. Applying this to the RSS figures above equates to 279 units per annum up to 2007, 241 units per annum from 2007 to 2011 (1,243 dwellings) and 154 units per annum from 2011 to 2021 (1,540 dwellings). Applying this figure forwards to 2028 generates a requirement of 924 dwellings from 2022 to 2028. This generates a total requirement of 3,986 over the period 2006 to 2028.

1. The second approach was to apply the proportions in the emerging RSS (2007) against the published RSS (2008) figures. The emerging RSS makes provision for 54,900 dwellings for Staffordshire, of which 2,900 are to be provided for in Tamworth, representing 5.28%. Applying this to the published RSS figures equates to 153 units per annum up to 2007, 132 units per annum from 2007 to 2011 (528 dwellings) and 84 units per annum from 2011 to 2021 (840 dwellings). Applying this figure forwards to 2028 generates a requirement of 504 dwellings from 2022 to 2028.This generates a total requirement of 2,061 dwellings over the period 2006 to 2028.

1. A third approach was to use the figures in the West Midlands RSS Phase 2 Revision Preferred Option(2007) which considers housing figures to the district level. This identified a requirement of 2,900 for Tamworth for the period 2006 to 2026. This represents an annualised figure of 145 dwellings and a total requirement of 3,190 dwellings for the period 2006 to 2028.

1. A final approach is to consider the findings of the panel report (2009) following the Examination in Public (EIP) (2009) of the RSS Phase 2 Revision Preferred Option. This increased the housing numbers from 2,900 to 4,000 with recognition that a minimum of 1,000 dwellings would be provided in Lichfield District. 4,000 dwellings equates to an annual requirement of 200 dwellings which subsequently equates to a total requirement of 4,400 dwellings for the period 2006-2028.

3.2The Councils approach prior to the publishing of the NPPF and the subsequent requirement for Local Authorities to establish their own objectively assessed housing needs was approach 3, the West Midlands RSS Phase 2 Revision Preferred Option, 145 dwellings per annum which equates to 3,190 dwellings for the period 2006 to 2028.

4.0Housing Supply

4.1The second version of the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment(SHLAA), produced in 2011, updated the position of housing supply in the Borough in line with the latest guidance. This used a methodology that reflects the approach of Lichfield District Council to ensure a consistent approach between the authorities.

4.2The supply outlined in the SHLAA (2011) is summarised in the following table. It is broken down into analysis areas which reflects the sub-areas used in the Indoor and Outdoor Sports Strategy (2009) and Open Space Review (2011).

Table 1 SHLAA Supply 2011

Deliverable / Developable / Not Currently Developable
Time Period / 0-5 years / 6-10 years / 11-15 years / Not considered likely to be developed thus no time period applied
Source / PP/UC / Local Plan [3]Sites / SS Sites / Local Plan Sites / SS Sites / Local Plan Sites / SS Sites / SS Sites
Town Centre / 20 / 0 / 47 / 0 / 118 / 0 / 388 / 174
North / 45 / 250 / 0 / 450 / 387 / 450 / 47 / 3719
North East / 77 / 0 / 3 / 0 / 100 / 0 / 157 / 1719
East / 1 / 0 / 102 / 0 / 96 / 0 / 28 / 279
South East / 298 / 0 / 72 / 0 / 91 / 0 / 133 / 953
South West / 35 / 30 / 85 / 0 / 55 / 0 / 9 / 1296
Mid West / 0 / 0 / 6 / 0 / 61 / 0 / 49 / 2428
Sub Total / 476 / 280 / 315 / 450 / 908 / 450 / 811
Total / 1071 / 1358 / 1261 / 10568
3690 / SS= Survey/Submission sites

4.3At the time of producing the SHLAA (2011) the requirement was established at that time through the WMRSS and the subsequent trajectory within the document was set against that requirement, 2,900 dwellings as set out in the Phase 2 Revision Preferred Option. At this stage it was evident that there was sufficient supply to meet the established requirements.

4.4However following clarification of the intention to abolish Regional Spatial Strategies, work commenced on the Southern Staffordshire Housing Market Needs Assessment to provide an up-to date housing need. This evidence established that an overall need for Tamworth was 5,500 dwellings which, alongside the need for cooperation between adjoining authorities established in the WMRSS Panel Report (2009) and the Duty to Co-operate set out in the Localism Act (2011), informed discussions with Lichfield and North Warwickshire in working towards a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

4.5In establishing the MoU the SHLAA supply was set against the overall need of 5,500 dwellings for Tamworth established in the Southern Staffordshire Housing Market Needs Assessment. It is important to confirm this position again.

4.6As of 31st March 2011 there had been 1,144 completions which left a residual unmet need of 4,356 dwellings to 2028. It is evident that with a supply of 3,690 dwellings there was insufficient supply to meet this overall need, an undersupply of 666 dwellings.

4.7Furthermore through carrying out sensitivity analysis it was evident that there could be further undersupply. Through taking into consideration the potential for sites to lapse, 180 dwellings based on historic trends, this could lead to an undersupply of approximately 846 dwellings which could be exacerbated further by the potential for sites to achieve lower densities on a site than those established with the SHLAA panel due to constraints such as amenity, access requirements.

Site size / 0-5 years / 6-10 years / 11-15 years / Total number of sites / Total number of dwellings
Sites / Dwellings / Sites / Dwellings / Sites / Dwellings
1 - 4 / 30 / 52 / 50 / 129 / 7 / 21 / 87 / 202
5 - 14 / 24 / 218 / 26 / 220 / 27 / 235 / 77 / 673
15 - 24 / 3 / 53 / 8 / 133 / 14 / 255 / 25 / 441
25 - 49 / 4 / 112 / 3 / 115 / 5 / 171 / 12 / 398
50 - 99 / 4 / 286 / 2 / 131 / 2 / 129 / 8 / 546
100+ / 2 / 350 / 2 / 630 / 1 / 450 / 5 / 1430
Total / 67 / 1071 / 91 / 1358 / 56 / 1261 / 214 / 3690

Table 2 Breakdown of 2011 SHLAA Supply

4.8As a result of this undersupply of approximately 846 dwellings and the requirement of the Duty to Co-operate, the MoU established that an appropriate requirement for Tamworth is 4,500 dwellings over the period 2006-2028, with a total of 1,000 dwellings to be met in Lichfield and North Warwickshire, 500 each.

5.0Updated Supply

5.1The supply identified in the SHLAA has been updated on 2 separate occasions, in May and most recently in October 2012 using the latest monitoring returns and intelligence on individual sites. On both occasions there remains a sufficient supply to meet the requirement of 4,500 dwellings but an insufficient supply to meet the overall need of 5,500 dwellings. Thus reaffirming the importance of the MoU and the role that adjoining authorities will play in contributing to delivering homes to meet Tamworth’s overall need. This is summarised in table 3.

SHLAA Version / Completions at base date / Remaining requirement (5,500 total) / Remaining requirement (4,500 total) / Total Supply / Over/Under Supply (5,500) / Over/Under Supply (4,500)
May 2012 (31st March base date) / 1,213 / 4,287 / 3,387 / 3,765 / -522 / 378
October 2012 (30th September base date) / 1,302 / 4,198 / 3,198 / 3,948 / -250 / 750

Table 3 Supply against Requirement in May 2012 and October 2012 SHLAA updates

5.2This table therefore demonstrates that there is still insufficient capacity to meet the need of 5,500 but sufficient sites to meet the need of 4,500. Although the latest update to the SHLAA (October 2012) leaves a surplus of 750 dwellings against the requirement of 4,500 dwellings this is considered critical to ensure flexibility in the supply as the potential for sites to lapse, reductions in density and the reliance on small to medium sites and the associated risks remain as the supply, in terms of sites, remains largely unchanged.

6.0Past Performance

6.1The National Planning Policy Framework sets out (para 47, page 12) that Local Authorities are required to identify an additional buffer of 5% moved forward from the latter part of the plan period. Where a record of persistent under delivery exists they are required to identify an additional buffer of 20%. To establish this position it is important to therefore look at historical completions outlined in the historic housing trajectory on the following page.

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6.2It is considered that when analysing the performance of historic completions rates that this can only be done against the housing requirement at that time. Although the requirement has been established as 4,500 dwellings (205 per annum) through the course of the current plan period prior (2006 to 2028), prior to this evidence being established the requirement for Tamworth was outlined in the WMRSS. Specifically the Phase 2 Revision preferred option which identified a requirement of 2,900 dwellings from 2006 to 2026 - 145 dwellings per annum. It is evident that with the exception of both 2010/11 (137 dwellings completed) and 2011/12 (69 dwellings completed), where the effects of the economic downturn had their greatest effect, Tamworth has consistently over provided against this annual requirement.

6.3Furthermore, when taking a trend based approach since 1996/97 and assessing an average rate of completions against an average requirement it is evident that there is a broad correlation between the figures.

6.4Consequently it is considered that based on both performance against recent requirements since 2006 and taking a more historic ‘trend’ based approach the performance of housing delivery has not demonstrated a persistent rate of under delivery and therefore providing for an additional 5% buffer is considered to the most appropriate for Tamworth.

7.05 Year Housing Land Supply

7.1In focusing on a 5 year housing land supply it is important to establish what the 5 year requirement figure is. For Tamworth, based on a requirement of 4,500 dwellings over the period 2006-2028, at an annual requirement of 205 dpa the 5 year requirement is 1,025 dwellings. When taking into account a 5% buffer this equates to a supply of 1,076 dwellings. In addition, were a 20% buffer to be required this would equate to 1,230 dwellings.

7.2The 5 year housing land supply was updated in the October 2012 version of the SHLAA. This used a monitoring base date of 30thSeptember 2012this identifies that within the next 5 years (i.e. not including the current year where it is considered 43 dwellings that are Under Construction will be completed) 1,386 dwellings will come forward, i.e. they are deliverable. This is summarised in the following table.

Time Period / Under Construction (current year) / 0-5 years (deliverable sites)
Source / OPP/FPP / Local Plan Sites[4] / Survey/Submission Sites
Town Centre / 6 / 29 / 0 / 109
North / 2 / 9 / 250 / 76
North East / 6 / 59 / 0 / 163
East / 0 / 2 / 0 / 117
South East / 20 / 181 / 0 / 149
South West / 9 / 17 / 36 / 120
Mid West / 0 / 0 / 0 / 69
Sub Total / 43 / 297 / 286 / 803
Total / 43 / 1,386

Table 4Breakdown of Deliverable Sites in October 2012 SHLAA

7.3It is therefore evident that there is a sufficient supply of deliverable dwellings against the 5 year requirement when accounting for both a 5% and 20% additional buffer.

References

2010 based sub-national population projections by sex and quinary age (May 2011)

EmploymentLand Review (2012). Available from:

Southern Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study and SHMA Update (May 2012). Available from:

Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent Structure Plan 1996-2011. Available from:

Strategic HousingLand Availability Assessment (2011). Available from:

Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (May 2012 update). Available from: