Stay tuned for a tweet summary of a working paper from GSPM’s @mbcornfield, Mary Crannell, and Ben Sheppard avail at https://gspm.gwu.edu/gspm-working-papers
GSPM’s @mbcornfield et al. write that there are 5 confrontation management scenarios for @realdonaldtrump and the @GOP at the convention.
Why? Trump is an inexperienced candidate and his loss could severely damage Rs down ballot. But they can’t just drop him w/out a plan.
Participants: Trump, strong on messaging and democratic legitimacy, weak general elex appeal. Party regulars: skilled politicos but divided
Advantage @realdonaldtrump
The 5 scenarios: 1 Trump unity deal 2 #nevertrump rebellion 3 @tedcruz led exit (#cruxit?) 4 post convo abdication 5 Trump til Nov 8
No matter the result, Rs can survive + thrive if they plan and speak well. Need to use language to limit pain of Trump bombast w/ key groups
Use of qualifying language and hedging on policy expectations re: white working class, Muslims, and Hispanics key to R future past 2016
More on the sides: @realdonaldtrump is perhaps most unlikely nominee of a major party.
Though he won 44% of primary votes, he is a poor standard bearer, showing a lack of discipline and understanding of campaign infrastructure
These twin shortcomings have gotten him into trouble, but instead of hoping for a change of course the party regulars must adjust to him
Party regulars understand politics, but remain divided/demoralized. Unfortunately for them it's hard to replace something (Trump) w/ nothing
The worst case for the R party is that Trump causes a down ballot disaster eroding their advantage in state legislatures (30) + US Capitol
Despite this, it is in the party’s interest to let Trump stage the convention show. He is a ratings boon.
So what are the scenarios for the convention
Scenario 1 a unity deal where Trump has some policy shifts + a VP pick that is OK to the regulars. Some current/former govs fit the bill
Scenario 2 the #nevertrump faction wins out and blocks @realdonaldtrump from nomination. Unlikely due to high costs for all
Scenario 3 @tedcruz or another conservative stages a walkout. It’s possible and fallout for conservatives might not be severe
Scenario 4 Trump abdicates after the convention. In some ways best for both Trump gains gravitas + the party is energized for future cycles
Scenario 5 Trump is the nominee and candidates embrace or keep their distance at their salvation/peril.
Best practices for the months ahead for the @gop
1. Isolate some younger GOP operatives so they can learn/strategize how to move party fwd
2. Consult independent experts (civil, military, logistics) to assess Trump policies in an attempt to bring policy back to reality
3. Open the door to featured input from citizens of all walks of life. Trump needs to be seen interacting w/ Muslim/Latino citizens at convo
4. Persuade @realdonaldtrump to insert more wiggle room/face saving rhetoric into speeches and debate prep.
5. Tell the trump story in the context of America. An attempt to humanize could have a positive affect on polls
It’s unlikely Trump will do any of these, but it’s possible. Rs who engage in these tactics will likely benefit
Overall, the convention in Cleveland will likely be one that the @gop hopes is brief and unmemorable.